jonreagan

Analyst Expresses 'Extreme Skepticism' on First Solar

We've been hearing that about AAPL for some time--most of it from analysts trying to create buying opportunities. Its growth has been explosive, but steady--not the kind of +20 point days you saw in FSLR last week. Beyond that, wait for AAPL's earnings report on Jan.16th: it will offer the best explanation there is for why this company is such a success story, and will continue to grow.

Alternative Energy Gambles for 2008

Relative to a previous comment--if institutions were intent on buying a momentum stock like FSLR, they would probably being doing it this week, to achieve some nice markup in their portfolios for the year ending. There wouldn't be any point in waiting until after January 1st.

12 Stocks to Buy on a Pullback

Great list; only place I'd disagree with you is on coal. The one other time I disagreed with your picks--and bought against my instincts--was on TSO, and I've still got a little indigestion on that one.

Would like to get your take at some point on the level of shorting/gaming/riggin... going on in this market. We all know it's a fact of life, but it seems to be at a fever pitch over the last couple of weeks.

As always, this was a really good article.

Six Stocks to Buy, Five Stocks to Short

The broader point here is that retail investors need to be aware of the institutional forces at work, and realize that they are a pimple relative to what is really driving the market. No coincidence that there's a hedge fund redemption coming up this Friday; we saw the same kind of rampant dumping of great stocks like AAPL and RIMM by major funds before a similar date last August; they all recovered nicely afterwards. These stocks have great fundamentals, and most importantly, have product lines that people want; "the Google", as W would say, has a +55% market share. Unfortunately, the fundamentals aren't enough to predict market behavior, which has become totally irrational. CMI dropped 22 points after announcing solid 3rd qtr. earnings, which didn't meet consensus estimates. GRMN got hammered after the Nokia/Navteq deal was announced last month. A few days later prior to the market opening on Oct.31st, they announced a strategic move to buy Tele-Atlas....they get hammered again. After the market closed the same day, they announced a great quarter with record earnings....you can guess the rest;down goes the stock again in after hours trading.
I've come to the conclusion that the key word--whether trading or investing-- is momentum. Find out the "hot stocks" that the big boys like, and know the calendar so that you can hop off before you get burned. Otherwise, as a previous writer suggested, you'll end up with S&P five-star stocks like PG and GE that spend their lives going sideways.