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showmethemoneypr

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  • J.C. Penney: Negative Traffic Trends May Prevent Revenues From Topping $14 Billion [View article]
    Well, if JCP gets to Revenues per Square Feet of $185 (like Macy's) with 108 Million Square Feet the annual Revenues may be $20 Billion. Of course, Nordstrom currently has more Revenues than JCP with 25% of the space with Revenues per Square Feet of $500. In sum, the In-Store Traffic should be analyzed within the Retail Industry.
    Aug 19 07:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Posted Strong Earnings But Fell On Potential Risks [View article]
    For JCP, it is a numbers game. Clearly, JCP is getting stronger. In the next Q4, JCP will generate FCF and Earnings to cover part of Q1, Q2 and Q3. After FCF, the next step for Earnings should be covering the Depreciation of $600 Million per year, which is a non-cash item. JCP should cover the Depreciation with Revenues between $13.5 to $14.0 Billion which is Revenues per Square Feet of less than $130. Thereafter, PROFITS.
    Aug 18 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Posted Strong Earnings But Fell On Potential Risks [View article]
    The Revenues per Square Feet increased from $106.84 at the end of January 2014 to $112.60 at the end of July 2014 which is an increase of 5.39% in 6 months. It should be an aggregate of more than 10% in 12 months. Clearly, JCP has an increase in Revenues with less Stores and Expenses. Based on my calculations, JCP should have FCF with Revenues per Square Feet of $118 and should have Earnings with Revenues per Square Feet of $125. For example, JCP will have Earnings in the next Q4 with approximately Net Income of $200 Million.
    Aug 18 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: A Look At Q2 2014 Earnings Expectations [View article]
    Well, 20% higher sales and GM would be Revenues of $14.4 Billion with GM at 39.6% of $5.7 Billion, SGA of $4 Billion, Non-Recurring of $250 Million, Depreciation of $600 and Interest of $400 Million, resulting in Net Income of $450 and EPS of $1.48 at 13.5x with PPS of $20.

    Another way for analysis based on BURL would be Revenues of $14.4 Billion multiplied by 84% is $12 Billion less Long Term Debt of $5.6 Billion is $6.5 Billion of Market Capitalization with PPS of $21.36.

    The claim that JCO needs 20% higher sales and GM to support the valuation is not correct.
    Aug 14 07:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The J.C. Penney Whisper Number Indicate Investor Confidence? [View article]
    Gross Margin of Q2 was 36%.
    Aug 14 05:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Earnings Preview: Some Improvement, But Cash Flow Is King [View article]
    Actually, 80 Million of Shares Short (130 Million on February 2014) is an example of extreme valuation to the short side.
    Aug 14 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Earnings Preview: Some Improvement, But Cash Flow Is King [View article]
    Well, 20% higher sales and GM would be Revenues of $14.4 Billion with GM at 39.6% of $5.7 Billion, SGA of $4 Billion, Non-Recurring of $250 Million, Depreciation of $600 and Interest of $400 Million, resulting in Net Income of $450 and EPS of $1.48 at 13.5x with PPS of $20.

    Another analysis based on BURL would be Revenues of $14.4 Billion multiplied by 84% is $12 Billion less Long Term Debt of $5.6 Billion is $6.5 Billion of Market Capitalization with PPS of $21.36.
    Aug 14 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Earnings Preview: Some Improvement, But Cash Flow Is King [View article]
    The average Estimates are Revenues of $2.79 Billion and EPS of -0.93 for Q2. Thus, JCP should be able to meet the Estimates with an increase of 6% in Revenues to $2.822 Billion and Gross Margin at 35%, SGA of $993 Million, Non-Recurring of $22 Million, Depreciation of $158 Million and Interest of $97 Million, with EPS of approximately -0.93.

    In our view, JCP should be able to exceed the Estimates for Q2.
    Aug 14 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Earnings Preview: Some Improvement, But Cash Flow Is King [View article]
    Actually, the business numbers of others are interesting.

    For example, Nordstrom has Revenues of $12.5 Billion with 25 Million Square Feet for Revenues of almost $500 per Square Feet. JCP has Revenues of $110 per Square Feet.

    JCP needs an increase in annual Revenues of $1.5 Billion to $13.5 Billion for Profitability, equivalent to just $125 per Square Feet with reduced 108 Million Square Feet. The Q2 should provide more than $200 Million, the Q3 should provide more than $200 Million, and the Q4 should provide more than $400 Million, for more than $800 Million. Plus, the aggregate Gross Margin should be more than 37.5%.

    Based on the above, Profitability at JCP should be around the corner next year.
    Aug 14 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Earnings Preview: Some Improvement, But Cash Flow Is King [View article]
    Fast Lane: I agree with the concern about Global Economics. But, the name of the game is efficiency. For example, JCP has SGA of $4 Billion with 108 Million Square Feet. In contrast, Macy's has SGA of $8.4 Billion with 150 Million Square Feet. Of course, there are differences in the computation of SGA, but JCP is more efficient than 2 years ago.
    Aug 13 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Earnings Preview: Some Improvement, But Cash Flow Is King [View article]
    Well, Revenues of $3 Billion in Q2 would be an Increase of $337 Million from $2.663 Billion equivalent to 12.65%.

    In my view, that is very high, but possible since JCP had Revenues of:

    - $2.663 Billion in Q2 of Fiscal Year 2013-2014
    - $3.022 Billion in Q2 of Fiscal Year 2012-2013
    - $3.906 Billion in Q2 of Fiscal Year 2011-2012
    - $3.938 Billion in Q2 of Fiscal Year 2010-2011
    - $3.943 Billion in Q2 of Fiscal Year 2009-2010

    Of course, assuming that JCP had the same amount of Cost of Good Sold of $1.876 Billion at Gross Margin of 37.5% the Revenues would be $3 Billion.

    In any event, an Increase of 8% to Revenues of $2.876 Billion in Q2 should be very good.
    Aug 13 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Earnings Preview: Some Improvement, But Cash Flow Is King [View article]
    JCP reduced its SGA by more than $1.2 Billion equivalent to Revenues of $3 Billion and Gross Margin at 39%. In addition, the current Interest of $400 Million is equivalent to prior combined Interest and Taxes of $400 Million. JCP should be Profitable with Revenues of $13.5 Billion and Gross Margin at 39%. Previously, I discussed the computations with EA (Elephant Analytics). As such, JCP needs additional Revenues of $1.5 Billion for Profitability.
    Aug 13 06:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Earnings Preview: Some Improvement, But Cash Flow Is King [View article]
    Revenues of $13.5 Billion is equivalent to just $125 per Square Feet.
    Aug 13 05:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Earnings Preview: Some Improvement, But Cash Flow Is King [View article]
    Based on 108 Million Square Feet, JCP should have Revenues per Square Feet above $150 equivalent to Revenues of $16 Billion in order to have a PPS of $40. By the way, JCP should be Profitable with Revenues of $13.5 Billion, Gross Margin of 39%, SGA of $4 Billion, Depreciation of $600 Million, Interest of $400 Million, and Non-Recurring of $250 Million.
    Aug 13 05:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Earnings Preview: Some Improvement, But Cash Flow Is King [View article]
    By the way, JCP should have Net Income of more than $250 Million for the next Q4 with Revenues above $4 Billion, Gross Margin above 39%, SGA below $1 Billion, Depreciation of $150 Million, Interest of $100 Million, and Non-Recurring of $50 Million.
    Aug 13 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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