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  • Conduril: My Highest Conviction Pick [View article]
    Good write up.
    I would ask them if they have financial (equity) commitments to some to the highway concessions where they have stakes. If I am not mistaken they own small stakes in some concessions in the south of the country.
    Dec 4, 2013. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Expect Stock Buyback In 2013 [View article]
    What's your view on the potential new dividend policy for BAC?
    I have been long BAC-WTA (famous TARP warrants) and lately they have been outperforming BAC as they are reaching the strike price but maybe also due to speculation on the div policy, as any dividends above 1 cent will be adjusted in the strike price.
    Jan 3, 2013. 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can DryShips Survive The Sector's Current Overcapacity Problem? [View article]
    Maybe the way to make some money on DRYS would be by buyng the converts, they're trading at around 70 with a very good yield, considering that the credit support their stake in ORIG represents. In case of distress the ORIG stake will go to the creditors and not to the shareholders...

    Still I haven't seen any decent analysis of DRYS, especially regarding their liabilities in terms of their order book and funding needs versus future cash flow as their old contract expire and have to be renewed at much lower rates.
    Aug 6, 2012. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NIHD: Buying Opportunity [View instapost]
    A couple of comments:
    - Some interesting insider buying recently at these levels (CEO of Argentina and CEO of Mexico buying)
    - Main risk will be migration of customers from iDen to 3G, will probably be expensive as they will have to subsidize handsets as their competitors will try to steal their customers during the transition phase
    - In Brazil VIVO has been especially aggressive with a PTT offer and has been gaining most of the net adds in the market so their growth rate will come off
    - A big chunk of the net debt is related to the acquisition of the 3G spectrum
    - FCF will be negative in the next years as they will invest to deploy 3G network
    - The assets (customer base + spectrum) could be attractive to various players in the region
    - If It was me I would sell the assets right now before they spend the money on the 3G network as the potential buyers can use the spectrum but already have the network in place
    - In case of a trade sale NIHD has substantial upside
    Feb 2, 2012. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Galp: A Periphery-Impacted Growth Stock [View article]
    Mozambique is very interesting, especially if they find oil as it becomes much more valuable. If I am not mistaken they (Cove, APC, ENI) believe that some of the areas of the concessions are more oil prone.
    Nov 15, 2011. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment