There is gonna be a serious pipeline problem starting 2nd half 2014. It is installing 2-3 GW a year, so 3GW pipeline can last just over a year. FSLR has realized the problem but it can not do much about it. If it has to compete in small to mid sized solar projects (actually it is heading there), the margin will drop a lot even if it can grab a piece of pie. Look at WFR and SPWR for some clues.
So far FSLR's international record is not up to its fame except limited success at Australia. The next wild card is middle east, but the countries there are not big - so the market is limited too. I just cannot see anywhere in the world that FSLR can replay its past story of monster-sized project. Of course, in US, those large ones almost go extinct.
Back to CdTe panel, I agree with Hughs that it still has some edge in cost. But the capacity now is still too high, which means there will not be large price recovery, especially European market is in decline now. Therefore, I do not see it make large profits in panels.
Scratching my head, I just cannot imagine a scenario that FSLR can make $4-6 a year in 2015. My prediction is that it may get $2 in earnings if it gets lucky.
Are First Solar's Thin-Film Panels Falling Behind? [View article]
Few people know the real cost of c-Si solar panels. Analysts and even company CEOs continuously mislead. The reality is that Cd-Te modules still enjoys some cost advantage and that advantage is very hard for c-Si makers to catch up. Of course, c-Si panels still lead on efficiency (about 15% higher), the gap, though is looking to shrink a bit in the coming years.
In the past, I've written about the issue again and again. But now I completely lost interest... While FSLR has more important problems, the competitiveness of its Cd-Te panels is only a minor one. Contrary to the common belief, the true cost of c-Si panels did not fall by much during the last two years. Yes, for PV manufacturers, price fell but margin fell, plus, same thing happened to their suppliers. As a result, more than 90% companies in the c-Si manufacturing chain were and still are in the red. Only a few suppliers have positive net margin.
Amazon's Current Fair Value? Around $75 A Share [View article]
Concur this though I am not as radical. I've said in my circle again and again that AMZN should be worth much less than its current price - I put a $150 tag but that may be a bit high.
AMZN is still evolving, not totally boxed, leaving holders some imagination. There will be some time before it finally settles down. Until then, it can still live in the cloud.
Next time it reaches 270, I'll pull the trigger and hold and wait.
Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: At 8X Cash-Flow, Don't Sweat The Tax Refund Weakness [View article]
The market is insane by pricing AMZN's cap as half of WMT's even though AMZN is not profitable at the moment. Those longs will be sorely disappointed in the next few years when AMZN transits itself from growth to profitability.
I agree on WMT's valuation here and actually a bit more bullish. WMT's performed better than many large ETF's in terms of stability - so there will be a steady money inflow from the bond players down the road since the yield is much better: 6-7% vs 3% or so.
Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
The economy is static and the prospect is actually pointing to the downside. Yet SPY keeps chugging along. Aside from the bond money, capital brought in by foreign riches do help prop the consumer spending. Therefore, while I am looking for a 15%-20% correction, I am not a big bear. Absence a black swan, which is highly unlikely, too much bearishness can hurt the portfolio.
Right now, several CanRoys are beaten down very badly and I am in for long term.
Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
What is happening to the stock market is the influx of 'dumb' money exiting bond, seeking yield in stocks. The great bond bear market has started - though slowly.
Cannot fight it in the first few months - let's wait till late April and May.
Amazon's A Momentum Darling; Here's 12 Reasons That Momentum May End [View article]
First Solar Puts Heads On A Swivel [View article]
So far FSLR's international record is not up to its fame except limited success at Australia. The next wild card is middle east, but the countries there are not big - so the market is limited too. I just cannot see anywhere in the world that FSLR can replay its past story of monster-sized project. Of course, in US, those large ones almost go extinct.
Back to CdTe panel, I agree with Hughs that it still has some edge in cost. But the capacity now is still too high, which means there will not be large price recovery, especially European market is in decline now. Therefore, I do not see it make large profits in panels.
Scratching my head, I just cannot imagine a scenario that FSLR can make $4-6 a year in 2015. My prediction is that it may get $2 in earnings if it gets lucky.
The Changing Landscape For Solar Producers [View article]
2. There are companies set up for recycling c-Si modules. But their 25-yr lifetime has not been reached.
Are First Solar's Thin-Film Panels Falling Behind? [View article]
In the past, I've written about the issue again and again. But now I completely lost interest... While FSLR has more important problems, the competitiveness of its Cd-Te panels is only a minor one. Contrary to the common belief, the true cost of c-Si panels did not fall by much during the last two years. Yes, for PV manufacturers, price fell but margin fell, plus, same thing happened to their suppliers. As a result, more than 90% companies in the c-Si manufacturing chain were and still are in the red. Only a few suppliers have positive net margin.
Amazon: A Price Target Of $147 Per Share In... 2019 [View article]
Amazon's Current Fair Value? Around $75 A Share [View article]
AMZN is still evolving, not totally boxed, leaving holders some imagination. There will be some time before it finally settles down. Until then, it can still live in the cloud.
Next time it reaches 270, I'll pull the trigger and hold and wait.
Sears: A Purely Speculative Play? [View article]
MSF is just a troll.
Who Is Winning The Drink Wars? [View article]
Wal-Mart Earnings Preview: At 8X Cash-Flow, Don't Sweat The Tax Refund Weakness [View article]
I agree on WMT's valuation here and actually a bit more bullish. WMT's performed better than many large ETF's in terms of stability - so there will be a steady money inflow from the bond players down the road since the yield is much better: 6-7% vs 3% or so.
Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
That is the correct time frame to use. Sure there is re-inventory and recovery in 2009-12.
Also agree on the housing and the wage problem.
Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
Right now, several CanRoys are beaten down very badly and I am in for long term.
Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
Cannot fight it in the first few months - let's wait till late April and May.
Apple's Growth Story Is Over [View article]
Apple's Growth Story Is Over [View article]
MS deserves what it did - no user will respect it if it just ignores users.
Apple's Growth Story Is Over [View article]
I use win-xp, no Mac or i-stuff. But I do not see a future for MS.