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King of Pain

King of Pain
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  • A Macro Play For Your IRA [View article]
    with you Jay...accumulating December 23 calls and will continue laddering up and out into higher strikes and back months on pullbacks to major moving averages
    Jul 2 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Rules To Focus On To Profit From The U.S. Dollar Rally [View instapost]
    very well written article. I enjoy your work. Thanks for your efforts!
    Jun 27 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The Secular Bear Market Is Not Over? [View article]
    apparently you are far too cocky and will be taught a lesson by mother market soon
    Jun 23 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The Secular Bear Market Is Not Over? [View article]
    thank you for bringing common sense to the table rather than confirmation bias
    Jun 23 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The Secular Bear Market Is Not Over? [View article]
    if people are so bearishly positioned why is margin debt at all time highs?
    Jun 23 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The Secular Bear Market Is Not Over? [View article]
    whats you performance since 2000 though genius? They say a bull market makes you look smarter than you really are
    Jun 23 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The Secular Bear Market Is Not Over? [View article]
    black swans are unknowable unknowns...all of your above examples were known unknowns
    Jun 23 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The Secular Bear Market Is Not Over? [View article]
    YES...the credit crisis was like a huge bomb crater and QE is like pouring buckets of sand one at a time in that crater...gonna take a LONG time for sand to start coming out the top again
    Jun 23 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The Secular Bear Market Is Not Over? [View article]
    excellent points - you win
    Jun 23 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The Secular Bear Market Is Not Over? [View article]
    precious metals as well as commods getting monkeyhammered suggest no inflation coming anytime soon, de leveraging has STILL not occurred from 2008 crash...enjoy buying the top!
    Jun 23 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Similarities To The Market Peak In 1973 [View article]
    whats your take Kyle cause you sure don't seem to have made a point?
    Jun 23 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Similarities To The Market Peak In 1973 [View article]
    Tim,

    moatfrog thinks (i believe - not big on putting words in others mouths but...) that this widdle biddy pullback last week was the correction and that it's over so the article is late to the party....All I can say is there is plenty more air underneath us and the fasten seat belt sign has JUST now been turned on and this ride could get choppy from here
    Jun 23 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm A Seller Of Volatility And VIX Products [View article]
    First I will say that VIX at 17 is not even very elevated when looking at historical volatility ranges, especially after 2000, a year ago this would have been consideredan extremely low VIX reading

    Second, technically I would not short VIX until and unless it closes back below it's 20 sma (midpoint of it's bollinger band) because if it manages to maintain itself above that level it has the potential to move much higher.

    Third, fat tails happen but nobody ever sees them coming...the short VIX trade has been a good one and a comfy one for a few years now...crowded complacent trades are not good forever.

    Forth, the chart of XIV shows a major break of trend...if XIV has been a proxy for lowering risk premium, then this recent break of trend suggests a return to more normal pricing of risk in the markets and a commensurate rise in Vol and correction in equities

    Bottom line? Don't push your luck with the short vol trade, it will come back to bite you in the ass
    Jun 23 11:08 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
    Excellent article and proof that to see what may happen in the future with markets all one needs to do is to look at the past.

    There is nothing new in the markets, this time is NEVER different.

    Cheers
    Apr 6 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Correction Beginning? Stock Index Futures Analysis Shows Speculators Fear No Evil [View article]
    Nice article and some nice comments below as well. I tend to agree with the deflationary view in the intermediate term and am positioned long the DXY and short equities with some bond exposure as well.

    Heavy cash position to be utilized tactically when markets give me unfair low prices to purchase.

    I do believe that there will be a flash crash of some sort in the next 1-6 months and then a more long drawn out topping out of equities over the next 18-36 months with a buyable low somewhere around 2015-2018.
    Apr 6 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
55 Comments
78 Likes