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  • Apple (AAPL) -1% after Deutsche's Japanese team writes supply chain activity suggests a 30%+ Q/Q drop in iPhone 5 production for the March quarter. UBS, Jefferies, and others have already cautioned iPhone production is set to fall sharply this quarter, thus some bad news on this front appears to be baked in. CRUS -1.2%[View news story]
    If they know the percentage drop, why don't they know the actual unit drop? If these analyst putting out the total units produced in Q4, 2012 and planned in Q1 2013, everyone can see clearly the actual demand for iPhone 5. I think that 30% drop (assume it is true) is an indication of heavy demand for the following reason:

    1. Calendar Q1 has a 15 days off for the Chinese new year (in Feb.) in China. Apple certainly will build a lot more in Q4 2012 to prepare for the factory shutdown in Feb. 2013, which translate to 17% less production capacity in Q1.

    2. In general, Q1 is the slowest season for any consumer goods, including Apple. a market demand of 20% drop is normal. So from pure supplying chain point of view, a 35% - 37% drop is normally expected. For iPhone to have only 30% drop for Q1 production point of view, it indicates great market demand for the product.

    3. A few days ago, street news indicated that Hong Hai (iPhone's manufacturer) already asked some of its worker to keep the production lines open during the Chinese New Year. This is another indication that Apple can't afford to have Hong Hai to shut down for 15 days, otherwise the market supply/demand will not be balanced. With Apple built up the volume in Q4 2012 anticipating the 15 days factory shutdown in Q1, and now saying that they still can't afford to have the Chinese New Year shutdown, it is strong indication that the demand is much stronger than what Apple expected in Q4 2012. Therefore, the 30% drop in Q1 production can not even be true!
    Jan 4, 2013. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Android Is Dead, Part 5: Number Of Players [View article]
    Apple has old OS. Even RIM has newer software coming out.???

    Newer SW does not mean anything. Windows 8 is the newest OS on the market, and MS used to dominate this market. But the market is not showing any interest on Windows 8.
    Jan 2, 2013. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Windows 8 Will End Apple's Market Share Growth - And Why Apple Shouldn't Care [View article]
    "Windows Phone Now Third Most Popular Platform In U.S".

    Sounds exciting. But let's take a look at what else is out there for smartphone: iPhone (iOS) is #1, Android is #2, and Windows' phone is #3. So one can consider it as the third most popular platform, or consider it as the last one on the list. Cup is half full or half empty.
    Dec 21, 2012. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Windows 8 Will End Apple's Market Share Growth - And Why Apple Shouldn't Care [View article]
    Microsoft also announced that it will have MS Office running on iPad in April next year. This is an indication that Microsoft realized that its Surface can't compete with iPad. But with Office running on iPad, it can at least have some software revenue from Office on iPad. With the Office running on iPad, Apple can have even greater sales, and greater corporate adoptions, and Microsoft can have better software revenue as well. It is a win-win situation. I believe that Microsoft will eventually give up its Surface tablet, and more focused on providing business software on iPad.
    Dec 21, 2012. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Windows 8 Will End Apple's Market Share Growth - And Why Apple Shouldn't Care [View article]
    The problem with Surface is that it will freeze, just like your PC. This is a big No for tablet. Just like the old PC,chew up memory quickly is another big issue for tablet. The WIndows 8 did not change these fundamental issues forever existing for Windows, and it is not acceptable for tablet applications for sure. These issue should not be acceptable to PC as well, but people live with it because Windows is the only game in town for PCs. But tablet is a totally different story.
    Dec 21, 2012. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brian White tries to ride to the rescue of Apple (AAPL), reiterating his $1,111 price target after the company reported selling more than 2M iPhone 5s in its first 3 days of official availability in China. Also leaning against the Citi downgrade are Morgan Stanley and Barclays. Shares are bouncing from premarket lows, -1.4% to $502.49. [View news story]
    I am sure that citi regrets that it released its Apple downgrade right before Apple officially announced its 2Mu iPhone sale in China during the first 3 days. These Analysts do not do its homework, rather just do some number crunching based on the street rumor.

    I have another spin on Apple's order cut for next quarter. Foxconn is in Asia, and there are tons of analyst in Asia following Foxconn, and these analysts should have very close relationship with Foxconn. How come they did not know the Apple order reduction. Rather they have to wait for US analyst to fly to Asia, discover such an information, come back to downgrade Apple, then the Asia Analysts all the sudden wake up based on this news, realizing that Foxconn and other suppliers are in trouble. This is just not logical to me!
    Dec 17, 2012. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) FQ1 sales could get a bump from Wal-Mart (WMT), which has begun selling the 16GB iPhone 5 at a subsidized $127 at thousands of U.S. stores. The retail giant is also selling the 16GB 3rd-gen iPad for $399 (a $30 iTunes card is thrown in), and the 16GB iPhone 4S for $47. The size of the price cuts, good for the next 4 weeks, are eye-opening in light of Apple's history of limiting retailer discounts. They come as multiple analysts (I, II, III) strike a cautious tone on iPhone sales thanks to supply chain data. [View news story]
    With Apple officially announce that it sold 2Mu in China within three days, and a very positive tone from Tim Cook, I am sure that Apple is comfortable and hinting that the Q4 sales will meet and beat the forecast.
    Dec 17, 2012. 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) FQ1 sales could get a bump from Wal-Mart (WMT), which has begun selling the 16GB iPhone 5 at a subsidized $127 at thousands of U.S. stores. The retail giant is also selling the 16GB 3rd-gen iPad for $399 (a $30 iTunes card is thrown in), and the 16GB iPhone 4S for $47. The size of the price cuts, good for the next 4 weeks, are eye-opening in light of Apple's history of limiting retailer discounts. They come as multiple analysts (I, II, III) strike a cautious tone on iPhone sales thanks to supply chain data. [View news story]
    Margin is important but only as a general guideline. On the other hand, EPS is the real key for performance. If the GM dropped, meanwhile much higher unit sale, therefore much higher revenue and EPS, it is a winner.
    Dec 17, 2012. 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) FQ1 sales could get a bump from Wal-Mart (WMT), which has begun selling the 16GB iPhone 5 at a subsidized $127 at thousands of U.S. stores. The retail giant is also selling the 16GB 3rd-gen iPad for $399 (a $30 iTunes card is thrown in), and the 16GB iPhone 4S for $47. The size of the price cuts, good for the next 4 weeks, are eye-opening in light of Apple's history of limiting retailer discounts. They come as multiple analysts (I, II, III) strike a cautious tone on iPhone sales thanks to supply chain data. [View news story]
    Margin? Are we really worry about Apple's margin? If so, why are we comparing market share between iPhone and Android phone, which we know that Apple has incredible margin and most Android phone lose money. Are we really comparing apple with apple?
    Dec 16, 2012. 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) FQ1 sales could get a bump from Wal-Mart (WMT), which has begun selling the 16GB iPhone 5 at a subsidized $127 at thousands of U.S. stores. The retail giant is also selling the 16GB 3rd-gen iPad for $399 (a $30 iTunes card is thrown in), and the 16GB iPhone 4S for $47. The size of the price cuts, good for the next 4 weeks, are eye-opening in light of Apple's history of limiting retailer discounts. They come as multiple analysts (I, II, III) strike a cautious tone on iPhone sales thanks to supply chain data. [View news story]
    The market is completely rumored by bad news for people shorting Apple. On Friday, we had the news that only one person in front of Apple store in Shanghai for the iPhone 5 launch. Now, Apple's official data said that Apple sold 2 million units in China just for the first three days. If we believe that only one person waiting in front of Apple store in Shanghai, how they can sell 2 million units which is Apple's official data.

    I also checked with a friend of mine who is a senior executive at Foxconn. He said that he couldn't disclose the data, but he did say that the rumor of 45% cut for Q2 iPhone production is absolutely garbage.
    Dec 16, 2012. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Only one person was standing outside the Apple (AAPL) store in Shanghai's financial district today, when the iPhone 5 went on sale for the first time in China. That's in contrast to the frenzy that accompanied the launch of the iPhone 4S. And while the new device will probably sell strongly, the lack of a deal with China Mobile (CHL) continues to hamper Apple in the country. [View news story]
    According to CNBC this morning, people lined up in front of Apple stores in Beijing, though the weather is freezing cold. Shanghai is a lot more fashionable than Beijing, hard to imaging that people lined up in Beijing in the freezing cold weather, and one one person in front of Apple store in Shanghai
    Dec 14, 2012. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Solid Mac Performance Compares Favorably To Sluggish PC Sales [View article]
    Though PC is at a down trend, but PC is still at a huge volume, and Apple's Mac revenue is going up. The trend is that Apple's Mac share will grow, and eating into the PC market. This still can be a huge growth potential for the Mac, with iPhone, iPad, iCloud, and 700,000+ forming an incredible ecosystem.

    I believe that we will see a huge iMac growth in the coming years with the overall PC volume going down.
    Dec 10, 2012. 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Decline: Thanks, iPad Mini [View article]
    Margin compression should not be a good issue for Apple. Its P/E is only 12, which is lower than the industry average, which means not much hype built in, unlike AMZN has a P/E of 3000. If margin compression is a concern, why no one worries about AMZN? If Apple's P/E is above 20, I may have some concern on its margin compression.

    I believe that AAPL's recent sell-off is purely due to the traders' manipulation, or the huge volume of options expiring, or fiscal cliff .... Once all these are over, the traders and the fund mangers will try to pump the stock up again, which for Apple, it is easy, since it has a strong fundamentals.
    Dec 9, 2012. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Decline: Thanks, iPad Mini [View article]
    I do not think that the prediction for 3 - 5 year out will be much meaningful here. Any great company can make mistake and fall in the long run, such as HP. What about Apple in the next couple years? Should they continue its dominant position in the smart phone and tablet? If we believe so, it should be good enough for the investors.
    Dec 9, 2012. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Apple (AAPL -1.2%) sold off again, the USPTO made a preliminary ruling to invalidate all 20 claims in an Apple multi-touch patent used in cases against Samsung and Motorola. Apple will doubtlessly appeal the ruling, which comes 6 weeks after the USPTO preliminarily invalidated Apple's "rubber-banding" patent. Meanwhile, the shipping date for the new 27" iMac, already stated by Apple to be supply-constrained, has been pushed out to January. The 21.5" iMac has a shipping time of 7-10 business days. [View news story]
    I checked this "multi-touch" pattern, it is not included in the recent Apple/Samsung litigation at San Jose, so no impact on this case.

    The reason for the rejection on this "multi-touch" pattern is due to the pattern application tried to cover too broad. I believe that Apple will narrow the pattern coverage and resubmit it. Then the pattern should be granted
    Dec 7, 2012. 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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