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  • On cue, Apple's (AAPL -2.8%) sell-side fans are defending it following reports of iPhone component order cuts due to weaker-than-expected demand. UBS, one of the first to report of production cuts, says it detects no change to iPhone orders since December, though it worries shares could be pressured near-term. Wells Fargo notes Apple's 65M-unit iPhone 5 display order (per The Nikkei) was "an unrealistic number to begin with." JPMorgan says it only forecast 25M calendar Q1 iPhone 5 builds regardless. Notable Calls: "This sure feels like capitulation, doesn't it?" [View news story]
    I checked with our field office in Korea (the function of the field office is not mobile phone related) with 15 people. Out of the 10 people below 35 years old, 7 of them have iPhone. This is very high percentage of iPhone ownership, considering it is in Korea, which is Samsung's turf. Some other staff told me that the reason they bought Samsung phone is due to their function of sales call at Samsung. In Korea, bring an iPhone to a Samsung office is not "politically correct".

    This is just another indication that iPhone is doing well!
    Jan 14, 2013. 11:48 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been cautious about FQ2 (March quarter) iPhone builds, and thinks the consensus for FQ2 iPhone sales has fallen to around 37M. The U.S. team thinks Nakane's estimates (45M builds in FQ1, 28M-30M in FQ2) implies upside to his FQ1 sales forecast, and downside to his FQ2 forecast. Meanwhile, his forecast for 17M-19M FQ2 iPad builds implies upside to an FQ2 forecast for sales of 15M. [View news story]
    The problem for Apple is that it likes to keep everything secretive. This creates room for the analyst to do all kinds of guess work, which in turn, makes the stock very manipulative. If Apple can be a little more transparent, there will be no room for the analysts to do wild guess, therefore the stock should be more stable going up due to Apple's strong fundamentals.
    Jan 4, 2013. 08:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Surface RT Is An Innovative Trojan - Microsoft Moves In Adjacent Markets [View article]
    This article considered Surface as the most innovative tablet in 2012, which I tend to agree. On the other hand, the market demand for Surface is real weak. This tells that innovation is not what make a product successful. The analyst constantly beating Apple has no innovation now for its products, but we continue to see Apple's products generate huge demand. I believe that the key for a successful product does not only based on pure innovation, rather understand the consumer requirement and have features that meets the market demand, is key for the success, even it is only incremental.

    Apple has proven this theory with its continued success with iPhone 5, iPad 4, iPad mini.
    Jan 4, 2013. 03:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Reportedly Swallows A 20% Price Hike For Its Samsung-Supplied Mobile Processors [View article]
    The process node Samsung using for the Apple processor is readily available at TSMC and Intel, and both companies will be far more than happy to take Apple as a customer. One year time frame to migrate the process from one fab to the other should be more than enough. Capacity should not be an issue either. For Apple, I am sure that these companies will be willing to squeeze capacity from any where else to satisfy Apple. Apple may also work with both companies with one as a backup. Throw in several million $ to buy some insurance is nothing for Apple.

    If the rumor is true that Samsung will hike its price, then it is a very stupid move. It only pushes its largest customer away quicker than it should be. On the other hand, I am sure that Apple has a contract with Samsung that Samsung can't increase its price effective immediately, Therefore, the impact to Apple's cost should be minimum.
    Nov 12, 2012. 11:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain's Trademark Doesn't Hurt SodaStream One Bit [View article]
    I do believe that it is a big threat to SODA if GMCR starts to sell its soda machine. 1. GMCR has great experience building its coffee machine, and there is nothing new to them for building the soda machine. 2. GMCR has a much bigger distribution network compare to SODA. 3. Price on the soda machine is not a big issue, since GMCR is 9X the size of SODA, it can compete on the price if it wants to. Remember, this is a business model of printer and ink refill.
    Jul 17, 2013. 03:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dear Apple Board, This Is How You Defend The Share Price [View article]
    Apple beats its own stock price down due to its secretive behavior. I hope that Apple will learn the lesson, and handling these business and market issues differently.
    Jan 15, 2013. 03:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qihoo Vs. Baidu, Which Is The Better Play For China's Online Search? [View article]
    Even Google couldn't beat Baidu when it had presence in China. When Google was in China, it only had less than 20% of the market before it decided to withdrew from China. Why all the sudden that the analysts starting to think that Baidu is in trouble due to Qihoo's new entry into the market with a search engine? Give me a break!
    Jan 16, 2013. 05:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Likely To Crush Analyst Estimates With 53 Million Q1 iPhone Shipments [View article]
    I checked with our field office in Korea (the function of the field office is not mobile phone related) with 15 people. Out of the 10 people below 35 years old, 7 of them have iPhone. This is very high percentage of iPhone ownership, considering it is in Korea, which is Samsung's turf. Some other staff told me that the reason they bought Samsung phone is due to their function of sales call at Samsung. In Korea, bring an iPhone to a Samsung office is not "politically correct".
    Jan 14, 2013. 11:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Could Build The Dominant Computing Platform [View article]
    Intel's CPU is based on the CISC architecture, and Apple's CPU is based on the RISC architecture. In general, RISC core has a much smaller die and lower power than the CISC core. So it can be the case that the Apple A6 only cost $20 while Intel's core i3 costs $117. Remember that Intel also has to mark up its product for its margin, though I do agree that the view of having iPad mini to take over PC stretches a little too far.
    Nov 15, 2012. 02:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's not easy to make the iPhones. We are falling short of meeting the huge demand," says Foxconn (FXCOF.PK) chairman Terry Gou, suggesting iPhone 5 shortages aren't letting up. Another Foxconn exec made similar remarks last month. Analysts have reported Foxconn has enlisted a division that typically makes non-Apple (AAPL -2.8%) products to help address the shortfall. [View news story]
    This sell of makes no sense. Apple has no demand issue, rather a supply which is a goof problem to have. I am sure Apple will resolve the issue soon if it has not resolved yet. When that happens, which I am sure will happen soon, the launch of 100 more countries by the end of the year will be another great story.

    From the fundamental point of view, if one looked at Apple's P/E or any other related financial indicators, combined with its market position, and continuing revenue, EPS growth, I can't understand why is such a sell off. Please point out for me one such growth company with such a low P/E. The market must be crazy to beat up such a company.
    Nov 7, 2012. 04:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Market Doubt Unleash Apple's Cash Reserves? [View article]
    Margin and innovation will not be the only issues for Apple. If Apple can be more shareholder friendly, it can be took as a very positive spin for the wall street and the investors.
    Jan 16, 2013. 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing Apple's Guidance To Actual Results [View article]
    Great article!

    If Apple meets and beats its own guidance, but it missed the analysts' expectation, it is only an indication how naive these highly paid analysts are. But it also a strong indication that Apple knows how to manage its products and runs the company well. Should we buy stocks from a company that is well managed?
    Jan 14, 2013. 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) -1% after Deutsche's Japanese team writes supply chain activity suggests a 30%+ Q/Q drop in iPhone 5 production for the March quarter. UBS, Jefferies, and others have already cautioned iPhone production is set to fall sharply this quarter, thus some bad news on this front appears to be baked in. CRUS -1.2%[View news story]
    If they know the percentage drop, why don't they know the actual unit drop? If these analyst putting out the total units produced in Q4, 2012 and planned in Q1 2013, everyone can see clearly the actual demand for iPhone 5. I think that 30% drop (assume it is true) is an indication of heavy demand for the following reason:

    1. Calendar Q1 has a 15 days off for the Chinese new year (in Feb.) in China. Apple certainly will build a lot more in Q4 2012 to prepare for the factory shutdown in Feb. 2013, which translate to 17% less production capacity in Q1.

    2. In general, Q1 is the slowest season for any consumer goods, including Apple. a market demand of 20% drop is normal. So from pure supplying chain point of view, a 35% - 37% drop is normally expected. For iPhone to have only 30% drop for Q1 production point of view, it indicates great market demand for the product.

    3. A few days ago, street news indicated that Hong Hai (iPhone's manufacturer) already asked some of its worker to keep the production lines open during the Chinese New Year. This is another indication that Apple can't afford to have Hong Hai to shut down for 15 days, otherwise the market supply/demand will not be balanced. With Apple built up the volume in Q4 2012 anticipating the 15 days factory shutdown in Q1, and now saying that they still can't afford to have the Chinese New Year shutdown, it is strong indication that the demand is much stronger than what Apple expected in Q4 2012. Therefore, the 30% drop in Q1 production can not even be true!
    Jan 4, 2013. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Android Is Dead, Part 5: Number Of Players [View article]
    Apple has old OS. Even RIM has newer software coming out.???

    Newer SW does not mean anything. Windows 8 is the newest OS on the market, and MS used to dominate this market. But the market is not showing any interest on Windows 8.
    Jan 2, 2013. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Windows 8 Will End Apple's Market Share Growth - And Why Apple Shouldn't Care [View article]
    Microsoft also announced that it will have MS Office running on iPad in April next year. This is an indication that Microsoft realized that its Surface can't compete with iPad. But with Office running on iPad, it can at least have some software revenue from Office on iPad. With the Office running on iPad, Apple can have even greater sales, and greater corporate adoptions, and Microsoft can have better software revenue as well. It is a win-win situation. I believe that Microsoft will eventually give up its Surface tablet, and more focused on providing business software on iPad.
    Dec 21, 2012. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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