Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View treyanas' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • McDonald's: The Dividend And The Grateful Dead [View article]
    If I had a Big Mac for every ace I have drawn, I could feed a town the size of Abilene.
    Jun 18, 2014. 02:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Is Breaking Out And Offers Upside On Compelling Valuation And New Growth [View article]

    Intel leads in 3d manufacturing - if you're talking about 3d transistors, the only things that makes any sense in this context. They're a couple years ahead of the competition.


    Intel's always supplied CPU's to the data center. It has become dominant in that space over the last decade. The issue is that, in recent years, increasing data center revenue and earnings have not been enough to offset lost revenue and earnings from the client PC market. So ... And I'm long Intel ... What are you saying will drive their growth in total across all segments?

    Apr 19, 2014. 01:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting On J.C. Penney's Stagnation [View article]
    In think the gist article rings true. I can't conceive of a scenario in which the company becomes really healthy for a sustained period. Ullman didn't manage it to grow in his prior stint. Current work to stabilize the company, while very appropriate and, so far, somewhat successful, does not seem to be nearly enough.

    I have biases like everyone, but find the stores themselves utterly uninspiring. The only reason I go to a Penney's instead of myriad other more interesting retailers is to buy something for my 85-year-old mother in Iowa. She likes their fashions and ambience, I admit.

    The next year will be pretty telling.
    Mar 5, 2014. 06:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett's Politically Incorrect Investments Underperformed The S&P 500 Over The Past 5 Years [View article]
    This analysis and the "politically incorrect" label verge on the ludicrous. Just to pick on a couple points ...

    Sure, BRK owns XOM. It also owns and operates MidAmerican Energy. With Buffett doing the capital allocation, it has grown its portion of the US's wind power generation to 7% from zero nine years ago. Currently planned renewables projects will comprise a $15B capital investment by Buffett and his managers. Since only about half of Berkshire's book value is equity securities, it might be instructive to examine whether the other operating companies in the portfolio are run in a "politically correct" manner.

    By the way, have you scrubbed your list of alternatives - including DuPont, Chevron, Yum, Halliburton and many others - for political correctness? Seem a little, I dunno, hypocritical?

    Finally, I should point out that anyone owning the Dow 30 and receiving much more than half their total return in dividends would have paid taxes on them at varying rates. So compare the BRK after-tax return to the DJI after-tax total return for a better comparison.
    Mar 4, 2014. 09:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Resurrection Of J. C. Penney: It's Not All About The Numbers [View article]
    Great article. Well-written, lucid, and original.

    BUT, there's always a but. As you point out, a few tweaks to the bear assumptions, like the possibility of improving margins under Ullman, and the picture gets much rosier. The opposite is true, too, though. If Ullman isn't any more successful at turning the company and its finances around than he was during his earlier stint as CEO, then the cash flow squeeze could get real bad real quick.

    I was in a JC Penney's before the holidays (admittedly just one). The store was neat and well organized. On the other hand, there was nothing particularly interesting about the products being sold or the way they were presented. The customer bias I entered with - that there is no reason for me to go out of my way to visit a Penney's - is the opinion I left with. It seems to be the same earnest, but unexciting place it's been for years.

    A turnaround is possible, but I wouldn't put much money on it.
    Feb 21, 2014. 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate: A Bad Time To Buy [View article]
    I agree that the conclusions are too general. Besides going a little far as to the effects of private equity investment in residential real estate, enormous markets in industrial, commercial, health care, and other non-residential real estate are ignored. The title and thesis should be more specific.
    Feb 17, 2014. 03:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • History Suggests Intel Will Succeed In Mobile [View article]
    More important, Intel will have to utterly re-orient itself and its internal business processes to succeed in mobile space as it has in the past with clients and servers. It's ponderous but effective business processes work very well when Intel drives the cadence, as is the case in these other product areas. It will have to change fundamentally to conform to the product release cadence and other business expectations of phone and tablet OEM's.

    Intel has the best silicon processes, thousands of talented engineers and managers, and (still) terrific cash flow. They don't have a track record of customer-driven designs or rapid product release cycles. And it's not like the smart phone and tablet just hit the market yesterday.

    I'm long Intel, but hedging.
    Feb 17, 2014. 01:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2 Real Threats To The Future Of Berkshire Hathaway (And Its Defense Against Them) [View article]
    Terrific article. I've been long BRKB for fifteen years, so your article didn't tell me anything new. But it did provide a lucid, original, and (I think) reasonable perspective on the company's history and post-Buffett challenge.

    In response to others' concerns about new investors ... I think they're exaggerated. Berkshire attracts patient money, for the most part. Inexperienced investors looking for quick riches don't usually put money into conglomerates selling boring stuff like paint, ice cream, carpeting, and insurance.

    I can't wait to read the other articles you mentioned!
    Dec 31, 2013. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's 2013 And 2014 Top 10 Picks: Do You Get The Message? [View article]
    Let me challenge an implication of the article. If you're suggesting (as on the surface you seem to be) that, on the basis of a single year's success you can draw general conclusions about what will and won't work, you're wrong. Yes, your lessons represent good, proven value investing principles, but the one-year time horizon is too short. Looking ahead one year to 2014, applying the same principles may or may not beat the market.

    Looking ahead, say, 10 or 15 years on the other hand, and they will help you beat the averages.
    Dec 8, 2013. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Don't Compare My Portfolio's Performance To The S&P 500 [View article]
    I don't entirely agree with several points made here (or at least implied). I retired at 48 and have a 6-figure income (significantly more than my family spends per year) from dividends.

    The dividends come from stocks, fed tax-free bonds (now in CEF's), and taxable bonds (a CEF and two MF's). I don't worry too much about the market value of the bond funds, though I tend to add to positions when the CEF's are sold at a discount and I'm underweight bonds (like now) and reduce positions when the opposite is true.

    I'm not sure why you seem to assume dividends can or should come only from equities. By taking advantage of imperfect correlation between bonds and equities (and within those classes) by systematically rebalancing, I've been able get strong portfolio growth with less volatility. I retired in mid-2007. With an all-equity portfolio I would have lost a lot of sleep during the recession that, coincidentally, immediately followed my retirement.

    I do compare performance of the equity piece of my portfolio to the S&P. My reasoning is that if that portion consistently underperforms the S&P over a 10-or-more year span, than I should consider switching to low-cost index ETF's. In fact, most of my allocations to small caps, foreign stocks, and real estate are through ETF's.
    Dec 3, 2013. 04:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Intel Or Advanced Micro Devices? [View article]
    Thanks, Stephen.

    It's hard to predict how profitable AMD will be in the next year or next few years. The error bars around profit estimates include zero. If a few things go right, the stock could pop up. If they don't, the price could drop down to where it was earlier this year - (a 25% or so decline). Or worse. By the way, AMD will almost certainly lose money in fiscal '13, if that's what you meant by "this year." They won't be profitable. And I don't see any path to $1B in net income next year.

    My point all along is that buying AMD stock, especially given the arguments here, is more gambling than investing. If this happens and that happens, the stock could jump up. You have to believe that the gaming, graphics and embedded progress will offset their shrinking computing revenue over the long haul.

    I've been watching AMD closely for 25 years or so. Every few years, AMD admirer claim that the company has the product or strategy that will finally make them consistently profitable, that this time will be different. But, as Credit Suisse put it, they've been the Sisyphus of profitability. (I wish I'd though of that.)

    Jeez, buy Qualcomm, Altera, or Xilinx if you want sector exposure.

    Again, thanks for being civil.
    Nov 10, 2013. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Intel Or Advanced Micro Devices? [View article]
    Very objective, level reply, Meir.

    One other commonly misunderstood point: The lion's share of Intel's R&D budget goes to silicon process development, a very, very expensive endeavor. This massive investment year after year has given them a 2-year plus technology lead. They can tune the process (and the way its integrated with device design) to be low-power or super-fast. When others, like AMD, have delivered better designs, Intel's made up much of the lost ground with better silicon process.

    By focusing too much on product design, people also often overlook Intel's big cost advantage on similar designs due to smaller feature size and higher yield. They also ignore the fact that large OEM's know Intel can reliably produce very, very high volumes of products. AMD has often had supply issues over the years.

    One more time, I wouldn't personally add new money to either stock at this point. AMD's financial position sucks and it just hasn't been able to consistently make money, ever. Intel is overvalued until/unless they find new growth areas.

    Don't let emotional attachment to a company (like heroic underdog, AMD) get in the way of good investing.

    Nov 10, 2013. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Intel Or Advanced Micro Devices? [View article]
    Huh? I might get calls from them?

    Whatever, I agree the acquisition shouldn't influence an investment decision. By the way, I wouldn't take new positions in either AMD or Intel at this point. But if I had to choose one, it wouldn't be AMD.
    Nov 9, 2013. 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Intel Or Advanced Micro Devices? [View article]
    The past is not irrelevant. Past performance provides indication of competitive position, execution mistakes, quality of management, and so on. Hypothetically, if, say, Intel swatted back AMD challenges (like K5 and Opteron) 25 times over a period of 20 years, it would be sensible to at least consider that relevant to an investment decision.

    Of course, the situation can always change. This may be the time AMD swings for the fences, gets a homer, and wins the game. Could be.

    Could be Intel will suddenly get a hundred phone and tablet design wins. Or that the declining PC sales trend will dramatically reverse. Could be.

    I think history is relevant, though.
    Nov 9, 2013. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Intel Or Advanced Micro Devices? [View article]
    AMD never had more than 25% market share. They briefly had more than 50% market share of the RETAIL, desktop business, but almost none of the enterprise business. (Too many people judge the CPU market by going to Best Buy.) Has AMD ever made a profit for four consecutive quarters?

    Before investing in AMD ask yourself this: What is going to change the fundamental situation? What will dig them out of their financial hole, enable them to be consistently profitable for the first time ever, and no longer be on a long-term downward trend (both stock price and business health)?

    Then ask yourself: Of all the companies I could invest in, is AMD (or Intel, for that matter), the best choice right now? Unless you're betting on some short-term noise-driven price swing, it sure isn't AMD.
    Nov 9, 2013. 04:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment