RSAAKS

Stocks Will Fall 37% or Gold Will Rally 60%

"throughout the 20th century, on average 5.4 ounces of gold would buy one unit of the DJIA.

Today, gold trades at $980. The DJIA trades at 8,500. This puts the ratio of gold to stocks at 8.6."

What if Gold goes to 2000 and Dow to 12,000?? With impending inflation, I think that is more likley. In other words both go up. Possible?

If You Have Short-Term Gains, Take Your Profits

We can draw all the parallels, but history seldom repeats in an exact manner in the stock market. This market is certainly due for a correction, but with all the stimulus money being pumped into the system, an inflation recovery, which raises most commodities, oil, agriculture goods etc is in the cards. This inflation will work for quite a few stocks, and eventually keep it from going back to 666 on S&P. I think corrections stops well short of March low, and we maintain 750-1000 trading range until sometime in 2010.

The Declining Usefulness of Debt

we may still be producing return on debt, a larger portion is being eaten away by increased regulations, leading to lower net

Relax, Obama's Socialist Agenda Is Capital Friendly

When people talk of our current "capitalist syatem", frankly I am not sure what they mean. The fact that we pay taxes in disproportionate amounts to the benefits we all receive from our taxes, high tax payers (aka high wage earners) already subsidize low tax payers to some extent. Hence we already are socialists to some extent. What is likely happening now---the degree of socialism is increasing--a notch higher? or a lot higher? that is the real issue. And Yes, we are are socialists already, believe it or not.

Don't Worry About Consumer Debt

Total mortgage+consumer debt only about 14% of the disposable income?? Something appears incorrect here, most people qualify for mortgage at ~28-30% of income, and consumer debt is often additional. If 70-80% of people still have a mortgage, this number could be 14% only if almost all mortgages were taken out 10-12 years ago. If debt levels are indeed this low, recession should be over this year, even if 10% are unemployed

The Stock Market Continues to Heal

some have suggested to put away the charts and go talk to some real people. Unfortunately, the real people have almost always been wrong at the tops as well as the bottoms. Charts tell us what people are doing, not what they are saying. Now does the chart assure we have a bottom? of course NOT. But a bottom on the charts will appear long before any real people think we have reached that bottom.

Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Indicator

A request for Bespoke group, or anyone else who may want to answer a question I have? or anyone who thinks it is even worth an answer.
1. How much total $ currency is in circulation now?
2. With planned TARP+stimulus etc, how much more $'s will be added into the circulation
3. and this is the real question: for every $1trillion added to the circulation, how much inflation should be expected, assuming none of the added $'s are ever removed? Does addition of 10% $'s translate into 10% inflation? or is the math more complex

Reversion to the Mean for Equities

Before we go too far with this mean theory, I would think if this theory applies to NYSE, it should apply to the GDP vs equity value for many other economies, at least those who have had equity trading for some time. Doe this apply anywhere else, or is the US so special? What about Japan, UK?? Secondly, why is NYSE equity value the only part being considered, when many of the very meaningful companies in the US [e.g. MSFT, CSCO, ORCL, INTC, EBAY, AMZN to name a few] don't even add up in NYSE value? Does that make this new economy different from that in 1929 or 1965?

The Calm Before the Next Financial Storm?

Amazingly, everyone agrees with the "bear case". Let us see where the market closes by Friday, my guess is higher than yesterday's close.

Tradermark's 13 Outlier Predictions for 2009

Difficult to find any holes in your arguments!! Though I hope things are not as bad. Seems US economy is becoming more and more like some third world economies--big deficilts-high inflataion-high unemployment-and lagging wage growth. I would add one prediction, there should be many strikes by workers for wage increases, like the teachers, govt workers leading the way.

Deflation Is Just Around the Corner

Deflation!!!! With the exception of price at the gas pump, can someone tell me which prices are lower? At least where I live, groceries are still costing more than last years, so are my utilities, so are the services like the doctor fees-auto repair-insurence, car prices are still holding the same as lastt year, tuition is not any cheaper, interest rates charged by banks are not much lower, so where is the deflation??
Oh, the stock prices are down, way down, that must be the deflation everyone is worried about!!

Another Day, Another Crash

A qustion for you: What bear market had most number of >5% down one day moves? How many >5% down days does it take to complete a bear market? How often has a bear market continued, even after tw 5% up days? Is there an answer to such questions or is the question irrelevant?

This Recession Will Be Anything but Deep

Even if the money going into the banks is used to retire debt, that money flows into the pockets of lenders. The only debtor who is piling up debt, is govt and everyone else, who receives the funds from debt repayment will have to buy something with the funds. ONly govt can retire debt and vaporize money, people-sovereign funds-hedge funds or any one else getting money from debt retirement gets cash. Will they put that cash in a cave for a rainy day?? Not likely, they will create the next bubble, only I don't know what bubble will be created next, since all assets have now been deflated.

Survival of the Longest

The market is not going down because of herd mentality of the baby boomers, It is the herd mentality of hedge funds and mutual funds that is causing this melt down. Unless the hedge funds are regulated like mutual funds, and there is some transparency of what the hedge funds are doing, this market is not coming back/ Individuals will surely be out at some point, whether now or in a year, if down turn persists. Going forward, funds will simply be selling to each other and will have very little individual participation directly or via funds.