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Zanzibar123

Zanzibar123
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  • Are You A Scared Silver Investor? [View article]
    Avi,

    Well, we have hit $23, today, I do believe. While I realize the "$23 range" is somewhere between $21 and $24, hopefully Elliott Wave Analysis is also signaling a bottom, in the near future. Many others are fearful of $20 or less Silver, due to the dramatic wash out, this past few days. Since these crashes normally take at least 3 days, I'm waiting to see what tomorrow holds, before I jump back in. Kinda wishing I had shorted it, a week ago, though.

    Zanzibar123
    Apr 15 06:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Last Chance For Immediate Breakout [View article]
    Avi,

    Good article, as always, but the question arises: if silver fell to the $26 region, would you expect a quick "snap back" to the $29 and even $30 region? I have April, May and June Calls which - when I took them out - were a ways out. They no longer are. If we're going to fall to the $26 region and just "wallow" there, that's not going to be healthy.

    - Zanzi.
    Mar 17 05:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How the Fed Could Fix The Economy -- And Why It Hasn't [View article]
    Ms. Brown,

    1. You are essentially advocating printing money. Our fear remains that the money printing we are now engaged in will result in rampant inflation. The only thing that has saved us is that the other nations around the world are now following suit.

    2. Worse yet, this money printing does nothing to promote sound economic policy or rational spending. What's to stop the U.S. government from spending all this money to its heart's delight to finance every imaginable grab bag and give away?

    AND, if we can "just print money," then why are you not advocating an end to the tax system?

    - Jim W.
    Feb 25 04:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: The 'Manipulator-In-Chief' Strikes Again [View article]
    I apologize for re-stating the obvious, but for the conspiracy theorists:

    "This is an open market. You can buy calls or puts on SLV, GLD or any other ETF or stock you desire. If you truly think there is a higher force at work (other than the Divine), then figure out what would benefit that caartel, group or manipulator, and do exactly that."

    - Zanzibar123
    Feb 24 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on FOMC minutes: Those expressing concern about the costs/risks from further asset purchases are upgraded to "many" from "several." A "number" said a close look at the data might well lead the FOMC to "taper or end" QE before a substantial improvement in the labor market occurred. "Several" argue the risks of ending too soon are also significant. Status quo for now, but the monetary law of the land can clearly no longer be called QE∞. [View news story]
    This economy is fragile and it's about to get nailed.

    1. Even the supporters of President Obama admit that, without continued multi-trillion dollar borrowing, a recession will occur. That's a candid admission we are living on borrowed money.

    2. I'm horrified to say that the 1 March 2013 sequester will take place. It's not that I believe there should not be reductions in spending: quite the opposite. But this sort of budget cutting with an axe is not really "planning" that would create true "savings," only pile up and delay much-needed repairs, etc.

    3. It's not at all clear that Congress can figure out the 27 March 2013 budget battle to avoid a government shut down.

    Contemplate the fact that this is ALL happening during tax PAYING season!
    Feb 20 03:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: A 26 Handle Is Not Out Of The Question [View article]
    Hey, Avi,

    Ultimately, it's a free market and we can buy Calls or Puts in the options market. If critics truly believe the market is rigged, it's very simple: figure out how the "Cartel" is manipulating the market, and do what the "Cartel" is doing and do that, as well.

    - Zanzibar
    Feb 17 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Austerity The Solution To USA's Problems? [View article]
    In-ter-est-ing.

    So, here's a test for you, my Leftist friend: "Why did President Obama raise taxes on the rich? After all, wasn't that a BAD thing?" Taxes, after all, are simply another form of austerity. Ostensibly, it was to help pay down the debt or to avoid borrowing as much money to run our government.

    Now, if you're truly committed to your argument, then President Obama did something as terrible as the Republican Party closing orphanages, killing the environment by shutting down the EPA, or any other "evil plot" they have in the name of austerity.

    And the DoD? I presume you fear cuts in the Department of Defense, too????

    Somehow, I'm guessing that you didn't oppose Obama's tax increases, OR his own efforts to cut back the Department of Defense, despite these "austere" measures. . . .

    The truth is that those of us who favor a balanced budget and an end to the national debt are convinced that long-term, unending borrowing is far worse for the USA than taking the short-term pain of austerity. We fully acknowledge that an end to unlimited spending will cause a recession. We're willing to take that on, to avoid the Truly Great Depression.

    If you believe your rhetoric, then buy dollars and sell precious metals. For my part, I will stick with Precious Metals, over the remainder of this decade. Darwinian economics suggests I have little to be concerned about, in this survival of the fittest.
    Feb 16 01:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of Trend Lines: Gold And Silver [View article]
    I still remain worried that we are looking for a decline, and may have missed the boat on the trip up to $60 or $70. I have substantial puts which expire in the next month, so believe me, I have invested in this sort of analysis, but fret that it will not work out. I have a few Call contracts left, but not as many as I had. Wish I had kept more of them.

    Question: What's the prognosis, if SLV hits $31.50 (spot Silver at $32.50)? Can we say, at that point, that the "bottom is in," or at what point would you make that call?
    Jan 18 01:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who's Really Ignoring 47% Of Americans Today? [View article]
    I congratulate Mr. Parnell for being right on the money. A recent AP headline stated that Democrats were urging President Obama to look for ways "to bypass the Republicans in Congress." What the article meant was that these partisan affiliates wanted President Obama to bypass the political process by passing up Congress - in other words, they wanted the President "to bypass democracy."

    Even the $1 Trillion coin idea - which has now been shot down by the Fed - was an effort to look for ways for the President to "just do whatever the heck he wanted to do."

    President Obama has already said he will not permit the debt ceiling discussions to be a discussion about whether Congress should pay for things it already agreed to. That's ridiculous for two reasons:

    1. Congress can ALWAYS amend a budget, cut spending, or change its mind, during a fiscal year. This is what Congress would effectively be doing; and

    2. Congress hasn't passed a budget in years: it's relying on "continuing resolutions." In August 2011, when the "fiscal cliff" was set up, there was supposed to be a $900 Billion spending cut over 10 years to serve as a down payment on deficit reduction. NOT ONE DIME was ever cut under the proposal. When Senator Rand Paul has raised the issue in the Senate, he and other Republicans were dismissively told, "Oh, well, we changed our minds."

    If the debt ceiling talks are the only way we can finally force a debate on deficit reduction, then that's fine with me. It's a poor way "to run a railroad," but at this point, I and a lot of other people are looking for someone to simply run the railroad, before the wheels come off the tracks and we crash. - Jim Wherry, Fairbanks, Alaska
    Jan 13 01:13 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Set To Explode In 2013 [View article]
    The trouble with "recessions." What comes next in 2013 will affect the price of Silver. But how????

    I've been worried about what I view as a coming recession. Poor Christmas sales, the fear of the Fiscal Cliff or the next debt ceiling, continued efforts by this government to tax and spend without end and to prevent jobs from returning to the USA by heaping new regulations on job creators - for many reasons, this economy looks like a recession in the making. Some would argue it never went away and it's just a "deepening depression," propped up by the Fed Credit Card of Eternal Borrowing.

    In normal times, a recession would mean less inflation and that would be bad for precious metals. Hoarders might flock to Silver and Gold in a true "Great Depression, but overall industrial use of the metals would go down and Silver relies on this use more than Gold.

    But in these times, a recession simply means more, endless, useless Qualitative Easing which has seemed to have a diminishing rate of returns, and more Endless Borrowing, which only underscores our failed economy and leads to further demise, as foreign importers obtain dollars and then use them to buy hard assets in the USA (like patents, or copyrights or factories) and then remove them overseas.

    So, if we are headed into a recession, "What's a gal to do?" It may be a question of timing. Initial onset (worsening) in a recession will lead to panic selling. Hoarders only show up, when the future looks bleak, long term. If we are headed into a recession, shorting Silver, near term, may be the right answer, then planning to take it long-term.

    The greater question for 2013 is WILL we fall into recession, this year? If we "kick the can down the road" and do nothing to stop the spending and borrowing madness, then we have one more good year of growth, left. Spending DOES have a stimulative effect, in the short term, after all.

    But if Congress truly fails to solve the Fiscal Cliff and move to reduce budget deficits, this year, you should take it as a sign that Congress is NOT going to act to do so, in the next 2 years, and possibly while the President is still in office. If that's the case, Schiff may be right and collapse in 2015 may be a likely scenario.
    Dec 30 06:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Set To Explode In 2013 [View article]
    Your observation is elegantly simple and correct, in my opinion. And I'm sorry to say, Sir, that I have greater faith in the failure of politicians, than I do in their ability to come together and do some good. "Ignorance is a powerful force. So is stupidity."
    Dec 30 06:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A High Risk/High Reward Play For Silver In 2013 [View article]
    Sir,

    My SINCERE thanks for your thoughtful responses and I appreciate the interest.

    1. What I've tried to do in the past is to "Imagine if Silver went down to $26 from today's price. What would be the profit, if I bought a Put on SLV, as opposed to a Call on ZSL, assuming 2X of SLV by ZSL." The numbers just don't seem to add up on ZSL and AGQ's side because of the cost of the option.

    2. One interesting thing, of course, is ZSL's outrageous profit, when SLV fell and AGQ's outrageous profit, when SLV soared, a few years ago. Go back to the 3-year or 5-year charts. The return on AGQ far exceeded a 2X profit, of course, and while SLV rose to $46, AGQ was out of sight at $180. Sorry, I don't have my charts in front of me, if I'm off. Because AGQ and ZSL are using options to create the 2X effect, you are - I think - buying an option on an option. At a certain point, a sudden, rapid rise in price, creates an exponential effect. I do bear in mind, though, that such rises and falls are unpredictable and rare.

    - Jim Wherry
    Dec 29 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A High Risk/High Reward Play For Silver In 2013 [View article]
    Right now, I'm playing to butterflies, with half in Puts and half in Calls. Puts are placed in the near term for the Fiscal Cliff to buy them at a cheaper price. The Calls are farther away, and are really just "protection money," in case my guess or my timing is off.

    The problem I have found with ZSL is that the options are TOO EXPENSIVE. Even if you imagine a multiplier of 2X, it's actually been cheaper to buy SLV options than to buy ZSL, when I've done price comparsions. Maybe I need to look harder, but check it out.

    The big "fear" of those who sell options in ZSL is that, when it "pops," both AGQ and ZSL go BIG, exponentially rising or falling, so those who write options are reluctant to give a comparable price to SLV. I understand their concern, but I am a picky comparison shopper with limited amounts of money.

    I would WELCOME an article (or love to write one) on this very issue: what is the better "value" for ETF's as between ZSL, SLV and AGQ, as well as some of the other Silver ETF's like ProShares turbo-charged ones.
    Dec 29 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver To Join Stocks In Cliff Dive [View article]
    You echo my sentiments: it will be fun to see, if we can all catch a Fib retracement, and maybe ride the same Silver Bull, several times in a single month, over the same price. Let me add a few thoughts:

    1. Recessions are bad for precious metals. While they might seem a "safe haven," the PM's thrive on inflation, and we don't have that. No matter how much you and I decry fiat currencies, the Fed has seen to it that interest rates (and inflation) remain low. The Fiscal Cliff spells "recession" with a capital "R"!

    2. Silver and Gold now seem to follow securities - which they should NOT be doing. It does seem the Fed has helped monetize the precious metals, and ETF's have turned them into securities. It is quite strange.

    3. A Fiscal Cliff plunge presents an ENORMOUS "buying opportunity" in securities, let us not forget: some Silver owners (enough to tip the market) will sell their Silver to buy stocks at bargain prices on Wednesday morning, next week. That will escalate the sell off. And while the Gold Bugs and Silver Bulls love the metal ("it's mine: MY precious!"), investors large and small put far more money into stocks with which the media is more familiar.

    4. A sudden flash correction will stun all those buyers that watch Fox News and see those commercials about how great Silver/Gold is. Think about it: I'm 47 years old. I've seen precious metals go UP and DOWN. In the past 5 years, do many current investors have that experience??? Silver and Gold have been "up, up and away!" for more than 6 years, now.

    This will not be pretty.
    Dec 27 03:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A High Risk/High Reward Play For Silver In 2013 [View article]
    I'm new to options, but have done quite well with them, and I am still learning. I prefer to buy in butterflies, purchasing both Calls and Puts. I am not interested in driving the market "up" or "down," because I win, either way.

    I have faith in what can be trusted: the unwillingness of politicians to make hard decisions that will save this economy. Since I can't influence them, enough, I might as well profit from the misery they are going to inflict on this nation.
    Dec 26 05:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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