Richard Turnill, Managing Director, is Global Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock, leading the Investment Strategy Function within the BlackRock Investment Institute (BII). He is responsible for ensuring we create, coordinate and communicate value added market and investment insights and deliver them consistently to our clients and client facing professionals. Prior to his current role he was Chief Investment Strategist for the Alpha Strategies Group, responsible for developing strategic plans around the Alpha Strategies product range and the positioning of Alpha Strategies products both internally and externally. He has also served as Head of the Global Equity team within the Fundamental Active Equity division of BlackRock's Portfolio Management Group. He was responsible for leading the team which manages large cap global equity portfolios.
Mr. Turnill's service with the firm dates back to 1996, including his years with Merrill Lynch Investment Managers (MLIM), which merged with BlackRock in 2006. At MLIM, he led the global equity team and was responsible for overseeing all aspects of the investment process. Earlier, Mr. Turnill was a group economist in MLIM's Central Strategy Group, head of MLIM's asset allocation and economics team, and was the Chief Investment Officer for the Merrill Lynch Global Private Client discretionary business in EMEA Pacific. Prior to joining MLIM in 1996, Mr. Turnill worked in the international division of the Bank of England as an economic advisor and the global economics team of Paribas Capital Markets in London. Mr. Turnill earned an MA degree in economics from Cambridge University in 1991.
Valens Securities is a boutique research firm with 90+ professionals, housing truly unique, disciplined, and unbiased research systems for equity analysis, corporate credit, and macroeconomic strategy.
Valens provides institutional investor clients with various tools designed for each level of the investment process:
- Valens assists in screening and idea generation using a broad set of unique signals and Quantamental screening criteria
- Our Market Phase Cycle™ macroeconomic strategy helps CIOs, DORs, and PMs to better understand directional trends in credit and equities markets and sectors
- We provide monthly and alert-based portfolio monitoring and review, helping our clients to confirm risk-reward opportunities and avoid torpedoes
- Upon request, Valens provides an unparalleled level of forensic depth for due diligence on concentrated positions on a client by client basis
Performance and Valuation Prime™: Valens insights in financial statement analysis have been featured in presentations and publications in the top finance and accounting forums in the world. Existing credit and equity formulae are simply not geared for the complexity and distortions in financial statements. The Statement of Cash Flows, often heralded as the solution to distorted financial statements, is possibly the most flawed. Valens Securities systematically reclassifies the severe accounting distortions, providing a base for far more accurate business analytics.
Our Earnings Call Forensics™ have been featured on CNBC and in Institutional Investor Magazine. This "ECF™" is a powerful, proprietary process for studying and evaluating management's physiology and other behavioral characteristics of management during quarterly earnings calls and other public presentations. We use tools and systems that other sell-side firms and credit agencies have been either unwilling or unable to use. Their reluctance to use these technologies often stems from their fear of endangering their relationships with management teams.
Valens Credit Ratings and CDS research and pricing have made Valens Credit one of the most read authors on Seeking Alpha. The application of "Fundamental Forensics" to credit default assessments and recovery rates has contributed to the body of knowledge of corporate credit analysis that has been presented to over 30 CFA Society city and country events.
Our focus on "Incentives Dictate Behavior™" has uncovered management incentives and drivers of corporate actions that have been prescient in securities analysis. Our team focuses on the incentives and structures that highlight management’s collective and personal risk tolerance for the company, capital structure inclinations, and propensity for certain corporate actions. This uncovers hidden payout incentives that drive the value and risk of a company’s obligations and ultimate equity value. IDB™ has also been featured in the highly-acclaimed book, DRIVEN: Business Strategy, Human Actions, and the Creation of Wealth.
Valens Securities analysis teams are actually team-based with no “star analysts”. Our Chief Investment Strategist, Joel Litman, serves as committee chair for final edit of our publications. Our conflict avoidance procedures exceed that of any major agency, reducing analyst biases as we accept no issuer consulting fees and we report full disclosures of any related interests.
We disclose any holdings of any of our personnel or affiliates in any securities of the firm being rated, and not simply the credit. For holdings of any of our committee members, or any individual employee who provided analysis contributing to a particular rating, we disclose equity, credit, or options of that particular company being rated.
Janus Capital Group Inc. (JCG) is a global investment firm dedicated to delivering better outcomes for clients through a broad range of actively managed investment solutions, including fixed income, equity, alternative and multi-asset class strategies. It does so through a number of distinct investment platforms, including investment teams within Janus Capital Management LLC (Janus), as well as INTECH Investment Management LLC (INTECH) and Perkins Investment Management LLC (Perkins), in addition to a suite of exchange-traded products under the VelocityShares brand as well as global macro fixed income products under the Kapstream brand. Each team brings distinct asset class expertise, perspective, style-specific experience and a disciplined approach to risk. Investment strategies are offered through open-end funds domiciled in both the U.S. and offshore, as well as through separately managed accounts, collective investment trusts and exchange-traded products.
65 years old, been trading for almost 40 years. Take a long view, I have 100 % faith in long term fundamentals and use Technicals (MACD/RSI/MOM/Fibonacci) only to gauge entry/exit points.
I believe the bankers and heads of financial institutions responsible for the derivatives mess should all have had lengthy prison sentences of the type handed down to Skilling (Enron) and Ebbers (WorldCom). The District Court Judge said of Skilling:
"His crimes have imposed on hundreds, if not thousands of victims a life sentence of poverty."
And exactly what did the bankers, Goldman Sachs and the others do to have deserved a lesser sentence or even no sentence at all?
Charles (Chuck) C. Carnevale is the creator of F.A.S.T. Graphs™. Chuck is also co-founder of an investment management firm. He has been working in the securities industry since 1970: he has been a partner with a private NYSE member firm, the President of a NASD firm, Vice President and Regional Marketing Director for a major AMEX listed company, and an Associate Vice President and Investment Consulting Services Coordinator for a major NYSE member firm. Prior to forming his own investment firm, he was a partner in a 30-year-old established registered investment advisory in Tampa, Florida. Chuck holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics and Finance from the University of Tampa. Chuck is a sought-after public speaker who is very passionate about spreading the critical message of prudence in money management. Chuck is a Veteran of the Vietnam War and was awarded both the Bronze Star and the Vietnam Honor Medal.
Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for its investors and then Mr. DeMuth writes about them on StW.
Data Center Knowledge - Contributor: writing about data centers REITs -- a new and growing asset class -- attempting to bridge the gap between technology & traditional REIT investors.
Researching and writing at the corner of Main St. & Wall St. where real estate often intersects with trends in: technology, ecommerce, office/industrial, healthcare, cloud computing, energy infrastructure & green initiatives.
Recently covered breaking news and actionable ideas REIT ideas for Benzinga "REIT Beat," now Contributor/Sr. REIT Expert. Select articles featured on Investopedia.com, Seeking Alpha, and published on Yahoo! Finance, Google, MSN, Finviz and many other financial portals. Recent Select Freelance contributor for Motley Fool, writing about REITs and real estate topics for the Financial Bureau.
I have over 25 years of experience as a: developer of institutional quality office and industrial facilities, general contractor, homebuilder, managing general partner for private limited partnerships, and have performed consulting and transactional real estate services for others, including entitlements for planned commercial/office/industrial developments.
Past job experience included: V.P. of Energy Services for a Florida based Mechanical Contracting company, which subsequently was acquired by EMCOR (NYSE: EME). Responsibilities included development and "financial engineering" of projects to reduce energy consumption and total cost of ownership solutions, partnered with the two major Florida electric utilities, and private companies, (including Enron Energy Services!).
Education: UCLA - BA Economics, including graduate coursework in Real Estate Finance.
Masters Degree from St. Thomas University - Miami, FL
John Thomas graduated with a bachelor’s degree in biochemistry with honors and a minor in mathematics from the University of California at Los Angeles (U.C.L.A.) in 1974. He moved to Tokyo, Japan where he was employed by a medium-sized Japanese securities house. Thomas became fluent in Japanese and was trained as a domestic Japanese research analyst and money manager. In 1977 Thomas became the Tokyo correspondent for The Economist magazine and the Financial Times of London. Thomas traveled extensively throughout Asia, interviewing premiers, presidents and prime ministers, writing on macroeconomic trends, and producing countless features about individual companies. Thomas witnessed China’s cultural revolution and was one of the first American correspondents to enter China prior to the U.S. normalization of relations. Thomas authored several books about the Japanese financial system still in use by business schools today. In 1983 Thomas joined a top US investment bank in New York with the mandate to develop an international equity business for the firm. In 1985 he moved to London, England to establish a presence in Japanese equity derivatives for the firm. In 1989 Thomas was appointed a director of one of the big three Swiss Banks with a mandate to design sophisticated hedging strategies for the bank’s considerable holdings of Japanese equity warrants and convertible bonds. With the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, Thomas was drafted by the US Marine Corp to serve as a pilot. In 1990 Thomas became a pioneer in the nascent hedge fund industry by founding the first dedicated Japanese hedge fund. The firm managed segregated accounts for a variety of government agencies, banks, and high net worth individuals in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. After a decade of spectacular absolute and relative performance he sold his firm in 1999 and retired to manage his personal investments in the oil and gas industry. Seeing incredible opportunities in the marketplace and yearning for the adrenaline and satisfaction offered by active management, Thomas launched a new hedge fund in 2007. In his free time Thomas is a commercial aircraft pilot, long distance hiker and mountain climber, wine collector and avid photographer.
I'm always on the lookout for good risk/reward opportunities, both long and short. MCSE (Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer) former National IT Manager turned trader.
Independent over 10 years after working at Prudential Securities. Posts are not investment advice, they are for informational purposes only.
Alex Zhao, CFA, is an equity analyst for Morningstar, covering the telecommunications industry. Before assuming his current role in June 2016, Zhao led Morningstar’s performance team of the U.S. mutual fund database. He has worked for Morningstar since 2010, progressing from performance analyst to investment analyst for the firm’s Investment Management group. Zhao holds a bachelor’s degree in economics and mathematics from Kenyon College, and he is pursuing a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation. The opinions and research contained in his publications before June 2016 are those of Alex Zhao. Morningstar or its subsidiaries have not reviewed or endorsed any material contained herein and are not responsible for any trading decisions, damages, or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use.
I'm a EE specializing in product/test development for IC's as well as snarky, sometimes comical rebuttals to fellow SA enthusiasts.
I tend towards "following the products" when seeking investment opportunities. I don't care much for historical data or chart gazing as most of my investments are in new tech.
Skilled in SW/HW design, development, debug in various areas of Mixed Signal, RF, and high speed digital technologies...
I'm a consultant and have performed project work for numerous IC companies, large and small. I'm an active investor seeking to learn and stay abreast of the latest events in the tech world.
I have retired from a 35 years career in the semiconductor industry. I now have the time to do the deep research necessary for successful investing.
I freely provide investment information for friends and family.
I am a member of MENSA, which means precisely nothing except I wake up in the middle of the night doing pointless math problems in my head:)
I'm a tech columnist for TheStreet. I was previously responsible for Seeking Alpha's tech news coverage, as well as its Eye on Tech newsletter. Prior to that, I wrote for other financial sites and published independent investment research, primarily on tech companies.
I have a B.A. in Economics from Columbia University. I'm based out of San Diego, but grew up in Southern New Jersey. I play basketball and tennis in my spare time, am a long-time (and long-suffering) fan of Philadelphia's sports teams, and alternate daily between using an iPad Air, a Galaxy Note 3, and one or two Windows PCs.
SGprivatewealthbanker is a well-experienced Equity Fund Manager with over 17 years of working experience, surpassing given benchmarks in managing large international institutional/retail & high-net worth individuals’ accounts. He is highly sought after for his adept understanding of the major financial asset classes (bonds; equities, commodities; currencies) on a global basis and is able to offer global bespoke investment strategies to high-net worth individuals as well as deliver high quality wealth management reports and presentations. Prior to moving to Singapore as a Portfolio Manager, he managed global resources fund as well as Europe Equity Quantitative Find and was Buy-side Analyst at Banque Privée Edmond de Rothschild Europe (LCF Rothschild Luxembourg), responsible for stock picking European equities for Bank’s private client portfolio. He also managed Equity Fund invested in DM and EM companies with significant exposure to the Emerging Consumption thematic for SMBC Nikko. Laurent has a Master of Science in Business Engineering from Solvay Business School in Brussels, Belgium.
Kevin T. Jacques is a former senior economist with the U.S. Treasury Department in Washington, D.C. During his 14 years with the Treasury Department, he worked on topics including risk measurement and management systems, bank capital regulations, and systemic risk. In the mid-1990's, he served as staff on the President's Working Group in Financial Markets examining systemic risk in the U.S. financial system. In addition, during his time in Washington, Dr. Jacques taught finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. Dr. Jacques’ economic and financial commentaries have received hundreds of radio, television and newspaper citations including Bloomberg Financial News, National Public Radio (NPR), PBS television, American Banker, U.S. News & World Report, and others. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Michigan State University.
I was a software engineer for a little over 21 years before I decided to call it quits to the corporate world when I was 45 years old (in 2014). I have always dreamed of retiring early, but I didn't plan to retire until I was 50 years old. When I realized my investment portfolio could generate the income I needed to free my life from the shackles of the corporate world, I quit my job and never looked back.
I did not win the lottery, inherited large sums of money, nor got lots of stock options from a company that I worked at that IPO'ed. It was all very hard-earned. I lived below my means and saved a substantial percentage of my take-home pay ever since the third year of my professional life.
I've been a lurker on SeekingAlpha for years, and finally decided to become a contributor to document my journey as an early retiree.
It's hard to categorize me as an investor. Although I'm mostly "dividend growth" minded, I also dabble in growth, deep value, speculation, as well as a little hedging now and then with options.
Ian Bezek worked for 3 years as an analyst at a New York-based hedge fund. He's currently living in Mexico, pursuing some entrepreneurial opportunities.
Feel free to contact him regarding investments, writing, or speaking opportunities.
Doug Eberhardt is a 30 year investment professional offering his analysis on 46 ETFs 5 days a week providing buy and sell recommendations. He is the author of the soon to be released book "Illusions of Wealth" that offers a fresh look on how investors can profit. He has written the book "Buy Gold and Silver Safely" and is a broker/dealer selling gold and silver coins and bars at 1% over wholesale cost to investors who are looking for "real wealth" diversification and protection from currency depreciation.
Founder of "The Contrarian", a premium research service, featuring the "Bet The Farm" Portfolio. Actively investing since 1995, I have soared like an eagle, and been unmercifully humbled by the markets. Achieved positive returns in 2008, and turned an account with $60,310 on 1/1/2009 into an account with $3,177,937 on 11/30/2009. My best years have been 1995-2003, 2008-2012, and 2016-????. My worst years were 2013-2015. I believe inflation is coming, and we are at an inflection point in the markets.
Twenty year career as an investment analyst, investor, portfolio manager, consultant, and writer. Founder of Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd, which was incorporated in the spring of 2009. Dyed in the wool contrarian investor, who has learned, the hard way, that a good contrarian is only contrarian 20% of the time, but being right at key inflection points is the key to meaningful wealth creation in the markets. I believe we are near a meaningful inflection point, perhaps the biggest one yet, for the third time in the past 15 years.
Historically, I have had huge wins and impressive losses based on a concentrated, contrarian strategy. Trying to keep the good while filtering out the bad.
Seeking to run an all weather portfolio with minimal volatility and index overlays to capture my strategic and tactical recommendations along with a concentrated best ideas portfolio, which is my bread and butter, but the volatility only makes it suitable for a small piece of an investor's overall portfolio. The following are a couple of my favorite investment quotes.
"Life and investing are long ballgames." Julian Robertson
"A diamond is a chunk of coal that is made good under pressure."
"Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." Albert Einstein
I’ve been on top of the world, and the world has been on top of me. I have learned to enjoy the perspective from each view, and use opportunities to persistently acquire knowledge, and enjoy the company of those around me, especially loved ones, family, and friends.
At heart, I am a market historian with an unrivaled passion for the capital markets. I have had a long history and specialization with concentrated positions and options trading. Made money in 2008 with a net long portfolio, deploying capital in some of the market's darkest hours into long positions including purchases of American Express, Atlas Energy, Crosstex, First Industrial Real Estate, General Growth Properties, Genworth, Macquarie Infrastructure, Ruth Chris Steakhouse, and Vornado near their lows. Shorting, hedging, and option strategies also helped me in 2007 and 2009, and these are skills that I have developed ever since I started trading heavily in 1996.I enjoy reading, accumulating knowledge, and putting this knowledge to work in the active capital markets, learning lessons along the way.To this day, I continue to learn, and some of these learning lessons have been excruciatingly difficult ones, especially over the past several years, as I made mistakes allocating capital, including a sizable portion of my own capital (I always invest alongside my clients), to commodity related stocks. While all commodity related stocks have struggled since April of 2011, coal companies, which attracted me due to their extremely cheap valuations, and out-of-favor status (I am a strong believer in behavioral finance alongside fundamentals and technicals) have been the worst investing mistake of my career. The focus on the commodity arena has been the biggest mistake of my investment career thus far, yet in its aftermath, I see tremendous opportunity, even larger in scope than the fortuitous 2008/2009 environment.The capital that I accumulated and the confidence gained in navigating the treacherous investment waters of 2008 gave me the confidence to launch my own investment firm in the spring of 2009, right before the ultimate lows in the stock market. At the time I was working as a senior analyst at one of the largest RIA's in the country, and I felt strongly that the market environment was the best time since 1974/1975 to start an investment firm.
Prior to starting my firm, I was a senior analyst for three different firms over approximately 10 years (Charles Schwab, Redwood, Oxford), moving up in responsibility and scope at each stop along my journey. Since I was a paperboy, I have always had an interest in the investment markets. I love researching and finding opportunities. I am a Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA, as well as a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst, CAIA. After starting in the teaching program at Ball State University, I switched to a career in finance when I turned a small student loan into a substantial amount of capital. I graduated summa cum laude with a degree in finance from Ball State.
Full disclosure, I am not currently a registered investment advisor, though I did serve in this capacity from 2009-2014, while owning Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd. Additionally, I held various securities licenses from 2000-2014, without a single complaint filed, and I continue to hold industry designations. At the end of 2014, I voluntarily let my state registration expire, as I transitioned the business to a different structure. Prior to this, I had passed, and held, various securities exams and licenses, including the Series 7, Series 63, and Series 65 exams, in addition to others, alongside my CFA and CAIA designations. Unfortunately, I did not file the proper paperwork to withdraw my state registration, and I did not disclose a personal arrangement, and subsequent civil case, between myself and a former close personal friend and client, that was initiated in 2011. I was unaware that I was required to disclose these items, and my securities attorney, at the time, did not advise me to do so. Previously, I had managed a portfolio for this gentleman, and we had taken an investment of approximately $7 million in 2009, and grown it to over $25 million at the beginning of 2012. After a difficult year of performance, an employee of the firm I owned, and friend, resigned in early 2013, and took the aforementioned client to a competing firm. As a result of not filing the proper paperwork, I agreed to a settlement, with a potential $2500 fine in the future, depending on if I choose to reapply to be a non-exempt advisor.
An entrepreneurial generalist who has served principally as a business leader and consultant in the information technology, communications, and business services arenas. Now retired, a stock picker and writer who enjoys writing about the semiconductor memory industry, among other things. When I'm not doing that I'm backpacking, cycling, and playing with my grandchildren.
Robert P. Balan has more than 4 decades of experience in the financial markets. Education in mining engineering, computer science, finance, and training in economics led to a commodity analysis career during the commodity boom of the early 1970s. Robert made a switch to global macro focus in the early 1980 when the commodity bull market waned, with specialization in foreign exchange. Robert wrote a very high profile daily FX analysis while Geneva-based in the mid-1980s (the first FX commentary with a real global readership, "most accessed" in the Reuters and Telerate networks from 1988 to 1994). He worked for Swiss Bank Corp and Union Bank of Switzerland (precursors of today’s new UBS) as head of technical research and as proprietary trader in various major finance centers (London, New York, and subsequently head of proprietary trading in Toronto, respectively) from late 1980s to mid-1990s. A stint at Bank of America as head of global technical research (in London and New York) followed in late 1990s to early 2000s. Robert did technical analysis for Saxo Bank (Denmark) in the mid-200s based in New York. He returned to Switzerland in 2004 as head of technical research and strategy, and FX and commodity market analyst for Swiss Life Asset Management in Zurich. He joined Diapason Commodities Management in 2008 as senior market strategist, and subsequently as Chief Market Strategist, utilizing fundamental macroeconomic drivers, and structural/technical data in modeling asset price and sector movements. Robert wrote a book on the Elliott Wave Principle in 1988, which was hailed by the London Society of Technical Analysts as “the best book ever written on the subject”. Robert is a member of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), USA.
As Chairman of Guggenheim Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer, Mr. Minerd guides the Firm’s investment strategies and leads its research on global macroeconomics. Prior to joining Guggenheim Partners, Mr. Minerd was a managing director at Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse. He is involved in leadership roles at a number of civically-minded organizations, including Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and Strategic Partners Among Nations.
Christopher G.DeMaria is a member of the Global Community. Having lived abroad for more than 18 years, he studied in South America, Europe, Southeast Asia and the United States. Chris is the owner of DeMaria Financial Services and an Investment Advisor Representative with Kovack Investment Advisors, Inc. He began his career in financial planning and portfolio management in March of 1998 after earning a degree from Ohio University where he majored in Economics and minored in Business Administration.
Chris focuses on achieving "positive" results regardless of how the market indices perform. Unlike some managers, Chris manages the risk of each individual portfolio rather than remaining invested at all times. Chris strives to identify low risk entry points and conversely, uses a calculated exit strategy when market risk is high or positions are lagging or down. Chris does not try to beat an index every quarter. Instead, he is focused on the potential for low risk profits. If you manage risk well and avoid large corrections, you will naturally create much better results.
There is no new thing under the sun Ecc 1:9
The headlines in the news change daily and market leaders change regularly but, the one thing that remains consistent over time is how humans react to stock market volatility (aka fear and greed). During highly volatile markets and market inflection points, human emotion is a consistent and measurable phenomenon that generally isn’t accounted for in any research report or stock analysis. This observation precipitated the creation of the proprietary market risk meter for quantifying said human emotion and consequent reactions to short term market activity. Regardless of education, wealth, knowledge, or any other factor that may make a person seem wise, people react the same way when fear or greed sets in. No matter how many times a fire drill is rehearsed, when an emergency presents itself, the exit is often not pleasant.
This methodology is by no means perfect however, it is a best effort attempt to quantify the belief that many things will return to some sort of mean over time and that people consistently exhibit the same undulating responses to fear and greed. Consequently, it is possible to view the ebbs and flows of the markets as ocean tides. When the tide comes in, risk is higher and conversely, when the tide flows out, risk is lower. Although it is not possible to consistently predict exactly when a correction or bounce will occur, it is possible to determine when a change in trend is occurring. Furthermore, a sophisticated investor can often determine when there is more or less inherent risk in the market. It is also possible to examine whether the tide has come in further than normal, presenting greater risk or gone out further than normal, providing a rare lower-risk entry point.
When risk is elevated, active investors should begin trimming losers, laggards, and potentially take partial gains from winners in portfolios. Investors may also consider reviewing the types of positions worth holding when things get ugly. Long-term asset allocation investors can look at re-balancing portfolios by shifting equity gains to other less market correlated asset classes like bonds or cash alternatives. Some investors may also consider hedging strategies like selling calls, purchasing puts, or stop limit orders to try to mitigate risk.
Conversely, when risk is lower, a plan of action should already be in place with a buy list of favored mutual funds, equities, and ETF's having been identified. Secondly, it is essential to identify a high volume, high volatility, downside trading day that is coupled with a strong reversal and 1-2 days' follow through. When all of these conditions are met, this methodology recommends purchasing equities.
Methodology for determining favored sectors
Christopher G. DeMaria has over 18 years of experience managing money for individuals, corporations, and foundations. While adapting from successes and failures throughout some of the most challenging markets since the Great Depression (1998 to 2016), his methodology has been continuously tested over that time in order to improve its reliability and effectiveness.
Part of his investment methodology includes a quantitative approach to identifying changes in trends at early stages and continually monitoring their relative performance against one-another. This process uses simple mathematical ratios (IE: SPY /EFA or SPY/XLB) to determine when one asset class is performing better than another. When properly calibrated, these ratios provide a precise moment when the trend in one asset changes compared to another.
This process is most effective when portfolio holdings are methodically adjusted based on different levels of market risk and relative asset class performance. As stated above, when risk is higher, portfolio holdings should be reallocated out of lagging or losing asset classes and moved into leading, lower risk, or non-market correlated assets. This process inherently frees up cash for future “lower risk entry points” when assets can be allocated
back into equities and other favored assets. Essentially this is a systematic approach designed to attempt to purchase leading asset classes when market risk is lower and sell lagging and losing positions when market risk is higher. In the end, the goal is to buy low and sell high.
There are three key factors to successfully implementing this portfolio management process. The first is having sufficient knowledge and understanding of the financial markets which takes time to acquire. The second is having adequate time and dedication to develop skill. The third is having the proper discipline to continually monitor the process. Many individuals have some or even all of these characteristics but, simply lack the time, interest, or expertise to dedicate themselves to managing their own portfolios properly. With the exception of those whom are confident in their knowledge, skill, and discipline to manage this process, it is strongly advised to seek professional assistance.
This Risk Managed Global Sector Rotation strategy has been well documented on Seeking Alpha during the most recent correction. Furthermore, a full cycle from high risk to low risk and subsequent recovery was well documented on Seeking Alpha in 2014.
The Lows Still Appear To Be In...What's Next?
Wed, Feb. 24th, 2016 (confirming successful retest of lows and providing actionable ideas)
Weekly Leading Sectors Report
Wed, Feb. 10th, 2016 (confirminglows and providing actionable ideas)
In Hoc Signo Vinces... What Market Signs Are You Watching?
Fri, Feb. 5th, 2016 (confirming lows and providing a macroeconomic overview)
The Lows Appear To Be In... What's Next?
Tue, Jan. 26 (confirming lows and providing actionable ideas)
How Can You Identify Market Turning Points?... Reloaded
Thu, Jan. 21 (identifying lows, Dow Theory discussion and providing actionable ideas)
2014 Full Cycle
This Looks Like The Lower-Risk Buying Opportunity We've Been Waiting For
Oct. 24th, 2014 (identifying lows and providing actionable ideas)
Preparing For A Lower-Risk Entry Point In A Secular Bull Market
Oct. 13th, 2014(preparing for the lows and providing actionable ideas)
The Quiet Before The Little Storm
Jul. 8th, 2014 (warning about higher risk and preparing for volatility and short term correction)
How Can You Adjust Your Investment Strategy To Enhance Returns?
May 28th, 2014 (explanation of a possible long term secular bull market and actionable ideas)
As I'm a long-term investor, I'll highlight some stockpicks which will have a 5-7 year investment horizon. As I strongly believe a portfolio should consist of a mixture of dividend-paying stocks and growth stocks, my articles will reflect my thoughts on this mixture.
Markos N. Kaminis generated a 23% average annual return on "Strong Buy" stock selections over 5 years and ranked 2nd among a group of 60 analysts in-house as a Senior Equity Analyst over a seven-year period at Standard & Poor's. After proving his value in-house, he was promoted into a special role as an idea generator, supporting the portfolios of institutional clients as well as driving performance within S&P's recommended lists and portfolios. At times, Markos was responsible for up to 10% of the firm's entire "Strong Buy" list and is due a great deal of credit for the group's outstanding performance during his tenure.
Markos followed a group of 30-40 Small and Mid-Cap firms, and was charged with finding new buy and sell candidates across industry sectors. He generated a 23% average annual return over five years on his "Strong Buy" recommendations, and 26% over three years ended 2004. He was ranked 1st of 60 analysts in-house for his "Strong Buy" performance over 4 years (2nd over 5). Markos also authored IPO research and wrote for high-level newsletters, The Outlook, Equity Insights and Emerging Opportunities, as well as for BusinessWeek Online. He represented his firm as an analytical expert commentator for major media, including television, Internet and through quotes and interviews in reputable publications.
Besides predicting the stock market correction of 2015 through a series of prescient reports here in August. (see proof here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3482226-investor-who-predicted-the-stock-market-correction-offers-an-update ), Markos also advised investors to buy stocks at the bottom of the market in mid-February 2016 and again post-Brexit at the trough, and to buy gold in January 2016 before the commodity started its move higher. While not perfect, over the years, Markos has made countless correct market and security calls for his followers, including forecasting the demise of J.C. Penney on the heralded CEO hire's disruptive plans, the bankruptcies of Washington Mutual and Pilgrim's Pride in the $30 and $20s, respectively, as well as the purchase of Facebook in the mid-$20s when it was considered a pariah post its IPO (today it is a market darling). Markos also warned of the real estate market collapse and the financial crisis in the early days of his blogging.
What I personally want you to know about my plans: After witnessing the worst of Wall Street firsthand and having the ideal vision of my childhood career choice corrupted by reality, I almost switched to full-time charity work at age 40 and still have plans for several non-profit endeavors. The future is somewhat unknown, and I am open to employment offers for portfolio management or other ideas. While continuing to publish regularly, I expect to begin work on several book ideas that I believe are important for business, for our nation and for society.
I may put my stock selection skills, earned through blood, sweat and tears, to better use, and to make my own way. I would like to give investors something rare, a dignified partner who can manage money with integrity and a clear conscience about the degree of due diligence behind investment decisions... someone who cares more about your money than your wife. I hope readers will become followers of my column here & at my blog, so that when our numbers are substantial, we might start an investment fund or two.
Prior to his Wall Street career, Mr. Kaminis spent time in the back-office, as a mutual fund accountant, where he managed for a time the work of two men. Before this, from age 11 to age 25, he worked as a carpenter's apprentice and carpenter with his father, in both commercial and residential projects. Mr. Kaminis has an intimate knowledge of the real estate (undergraduate degree in Real Estate and Finance) and construction market, as well as the restaurant industry.
However, as a generalist stock analyst, he showed the ability to learn any and the most complicated of industries in short time - and he gamed every challenge presented to him. Mr. Kaminis earned his MBA at the Katz Graduate School of Business at the University of Pittsburgh, and his BA at Temple University in Philadelphia. However, Markos has been studying the stock market since age 13, when he determined his career path.
He made his first investment at age 16, and funded much of his undergraduate education with the proceeds of his investing success. Mr. Kaminis continues to keep busy forecasting the economic path and securities market activity. Markos is considering the eventual start-up a long/short capital appreciation hedge fund. Such a fund would limit risk through beta reduction, using a diversification strategy targeting sector & industry and long & short position inclusion. At the same time, Markos' theoretical fund would seek maximum capital appreciation through the exploitation of Mr. Kaminis' inherent economic & market discernment gift and proven stock selection skills.
Mr. Kaminis also has a team of a select few analysts, technicians, strategists and economists that he has been impressed by over the years, which he expects to tap for the project when the time is right. Mr. Kaminis welcomes your interest in such a potential forward effort, and looks forward to discussing his plans with those appropriate and within legal constraints.
Markos toys with very early stage entrepreneurial efforts in the testing of certain business models, all of which he intends to tie to a planned non-profit project serving the most helpless among us. The tie will be that the businesses will give employment opportunity to individuals who would otherwise have difficulty finding gainful employment. It will house and heal the homeless, ex-convicts, those completing rehabilitation efforts for drug and other addictions, and others in need of help.
Markos is currently Directing the widely syndicated blog he founded, "Wall Street Greek," and is writing for other well-known publications besides advancing several big ideas. Markos' column is syndicated across sites like the Boston Globe, Kiplinger Magazine, UPI and other reputable newspaper and TV websites, as well as private networks, Amazon Kindle, iPhone and more. In the past, he has written for RealMoney.com, Motley Fool and others.
Requests to research specific companies are welcome, as we serve our readers. You may contact us via this blog's contact info. Mr. Kaminis welcomes you to follow him here at Seeking Alpha, where he is proud to be a long-time contributor to this strong team of writers. He considers the Seeking Alpha team and management close friends, and for you, people worth knowing and following. Visit his site: Wall Street Greek (http://www.wallstreetgreek.blogspot.com/)
Computer Scientist - all SA proceeds (which are reasonable but don't amount to minimum wage in my case) are left as tips to helpful waitstaff at dives and mom & pops across the country.
I'm a young private investor. I prefer concentrated bets on small, quality businesses. I'm a strategic generalist, tactical specialist; I scan broadly looking for quirky things to become obsessed with for awhile, to accumulate clusters of competence in neglected niches. I'll place on my watch-list most anything that is predictable enough to value accurately, and wait for the right price. My idea horizons, which used to be ~1 year, seem to be lengthening.
My current top holdings are FN, KTCC, AGM, NVMI, EMAN, SILC, and SLP.