Jeff Miller's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/55431/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1435831/comments?source=feed#comment-19008971 19008971
The number "available tomorrow" has not changed. That is what the market data tell you.

Your comment demonstrates the problem in trying to teach something about markets to those who have closed minds.

If you stay with the future articles, maybe you will come around.

Jeff]]> Sun, 19 May 2013 20:03:40 -0400
The number "available tomorrow" has not changed. That is what the market data tell you.

Your comment demonstrates the problem in trying to teach something about markets to those who have closed minds.

If you stay with the future articles, maybe you will come around.

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1445111/comments?source=feed#comment-18996551 18996551
and thanks..

Jeff]]> Sun, 19 May 2013 11:20:18 -0400
and thanks..

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1445111/comments?source=feed#comment-18996521 18996521
Feel free to view it as good news. I pondered this item, along with the news about the debt limit not being an issue until autumn (which I chose not to include this week).

For what it is worth, here is my thinking --The pace of debt reduction is either good or bad depending upon your perspective. I usually classify good and bad news based upon market reaction, but this story does not generate an immediate impact.

A rapid pace of debt reduction (both household and government) reflects one set of objectives. More current consumption helps the economy, so there is a tradeoff.

I am seriously concerned about debt issues (as you will see in an upcoming piece) but more urgently concerned about economic growth.

But I take your point. If that is my interpretation, I certainly should explain it better!

Thanks,

Jeff]]> Sun, 19 May 2013 11:19:39 -0400
Feel free to view it as good news. I pondered this item, along with the news about the debt limit not being an issue until autumn (which I chose not to include this week).

For what it is worth, here is my thinking --The pace of debt reduction is either good or bad depending upon your perspective. I usually classify good and bad news based upon market reaction, but this story does not generate an immediate impact.

A rapid pace of debt reduction (both household and government) reflects one set of objectives. More current consumption helps the economy, so there is a tradeoff.

I am seriously concerned about debt issues (as you will see in an upcoming piece) but more urgently concerned about economic growth.

But I take your point. If that is my interpretation, I certainly should explain it better!

Thanks,

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1445111/comments?source=feed#comment-18994931 18994931 Sun, 19 May 2013 10:05:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1445111/comments?source=feed#comment-18994901 18994901
In the stock market world, everyone jumps on references to QE and stock prices, acting like that was the only mechanism for QE to help the economy. For a much stronger view, go to Fed expert Tim Duy: http://bit.ly/189HYyy

Thanks again!

Jeff]]> Sun, 19 May 2013 10:04:18 -0400
In the stock market world, everyone jumps on references to QE and stock prices, acting like that was the only mechanism for QE to help the economy. For a much stronger view, go to Fed expert Tim Duy: http://bit.ly/189HYyy

Thanks again!

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1412551/comments?source=feed#comment-18971791 18971791
Do you have a better idea?

Is it better to hold cash?

Just wondering....

Jeff]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 23:16:11 -0400
Do you have a better idea?

Is it better to hold cash?

Just wondering....

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1435831/comments?source=feed#comment-18928541 18928541
When a trade is made, there is no record made of "permanent supply".

Try thinking about it in terms of a stock -- like Intel or something. Suppose you have a mix of long-term buyers and traders. There is no overwhelming issue about he "supply" of Intel stock.

If you are willing to bid more, the supply will be there.

Try also thinking about the Treasury auction, as I explained in the article.

That is my best effort to explain. If you don't get it, you will soon learn.

Best of luck!!

Jeff]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 23:48:00 -0400
When a trade is made, there is no record made of "permanent supply".

Try thinking about it in terms of a stock -- like Intel or something. Suppose you have a mix of long-term buyers and traders. There is no overwhelming issue about he "supply" of Intel stock.

If you are willing to bid more, the supply will be there.

Try also thinking about the Treasury auction, as I explained in the article.

That is my best effort to explain. If you don't get it, you will soon learn.

Best of luck!!

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1435831/comments?source=feed#comment-18891801 18891801
If you read my profile, you will see that I am an investment manager, not someone who is selling a trend following service. Inquiries are always welcome, as I try to match some combination of our five programs to the needs of each investor.

It is always amusing when an anonymous commenter misconstrues the record of someone who has contributed hundreds of articles over several years. I always hope that most of the readers are sharp enough to see beyond this.

If you really live in Chicago, you are welcome to visit at our Naperville office. I suspect that you would leave with a better perspective and a very different attitude.

Jeff]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 09:09:50 -0400
If you read my profile, you will see that I am an investment manager, not someone who is selling a trend following service. Inquiries are always welcome, as I try to match some combination of our five programs to the needs of each investor.

It is always amusing when an anonymous commenter misconstrues the record of someone who has contributed hundreds of articles over several years. I always hope that most of the readers are sharp enough to see beyond this.

If you really live in Chicago, you are welcome to visit at our Naperville office. I suspect that you would leave with a better perspective and a very different attitude.

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1435831/comments?source=feed#comment-18891031 18891031
You are on the right track. The Fed is trying to change expectations -- particularly about inflation. They want more inflation and higher expectations of inflation. That is why rates will go up even if QE continues.

Jeff]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 08:58:07 -0400
You are on the right track. The Fed is trying to change expectations -- particularly about inflation. They want more inflation and higher expectations of inflation. That is why rates will go up even if QE continues.

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1435831/comments?source=feed#comment-18890941 18890941
As I write this, CSCO is up nicely on a good earnings report. For some, the stock may now have hit a price target and they will sell. For others, the news may signal better prospects. Still others will play it for a day trade.

It is a market - - with many participants, motives, and strategies.

If the Fed were not buying in the Treasury market, the paper would be held by hundreds of thousands of other participants instead -- and at a very slightly lower price.

You last paragraph (less available to sell tomorrow) is just bogus. The amount available for sale is a function of price. That is why there is a supply curve.

Jeff]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 08:56:14 -0400
As I write this, CSCO is up nicely on a good earnings report. For some, the stock may now have hit a price target and they will sell. For others, the news may signal better prospects. Still others will play it for a day trade.

It is a market - - with many participants, motives, and strategies.

If the Fed were not buying in the Treasury market, the paper would be held by hundreds of thousands of other participants instead -- and at a very slightly lower price.

You last paragraph (less available to sell tomorrow) is just bogus. The amount available for sale is a function of price. That is why there is a supply curve.

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1427351/comments?source=feed#comment-18780961 18780961
Nice job of spotting something that nearly everyone would miss.

Jeff]]> Mon, 13 May 2013 16:41:20 -0400
Nice job of spotting something that nearly everyone would miss.

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1427351/comments?source=feed#comment-18758631 18758631
Jeff]]> Mon, 13 May 2013 09:28:25 -0400
Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1427391/comments?source=feed#comment-18737481 18737481
You seem blissfully unaware of the need to attend also to the deflationary threat -- more serious, and harder to correct.

This is a terrific, educational article. Much of the trading community has not bothered to learn much about monetary policy.]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 13:40:36 -0400
You seem blissfully unaware of the need to attend also to the deflationary threat -- more serious, and harder to correct.

This is a terrific, educational article. Much of the trading community has not bothered to learn much about monetary policy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1402951/comments?source=feed#comment-18516611 18516611
As to the deep look into the employment data, most of it is inconsistent spinning. The analysis of seasonal adjustments is really terrible. The choice of indicators varies with what will convey the worst impression in a given month. They manage to criticize the B/D adjustment, for example when it adds jobs, but also when it subtracts them if the number has changed.

So the problem is that you need to be an expert to spot the errors.

They also do not cite sources in a way that allows you to verify their work.

You can get a more reasonable bearish perspective from John Mauldin.

But once again, you are on the right track. Read widely and think critically.

Jeff]]> Mon, 06 May 2013 20:36:37 -0400
As to the deep look into the employment data, most of it is inconsistent spinning. The analysis of seasonal adjustments is really terrible. The choice of indicators varies with what will convey the worst impression in a given month. They manage to criticize the B/D adjustment, for example when it adds jobs, but also when it subtracts them if the number has changed.

So the problem is that you need to be an expert to spot the errors.

They also do not cite sources in a way that allows you to verify their work.

You can get a more reasonable bearish perspective from John Mauldin.

But once again, you are on the right track. Read widely and think critically.

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1402951/comments?source=feed#comment-18474041 18474041
I am talking about the long-term economic growth trend -- mostly in the U.S. but also in emerging countries, China, and Europe. You seem to be focused on the last couple of years, during which the Austerians have impaired the economic recovery.

At the Kauffman conference someone raised the question of how much more job growth would have been if we had not starved state and local government. (I do not quote by name anyone with a glass of wine in his hand, but the person is a conservative thinker of long repute -- someone you would recognize).

Despite the worst efforts of government, we'll get back to long-term economic growth trends and probably overshooot!

I am delighted that your investments have done well. Would it surprise you to learn that many who share your skeptical thoughts elect to avoid stocks?

Jeff]]> Sun, 05 May 2013 20:47:06 -0400
I am talking about the long-term economic growth trend -- mostly in the U.S. but also in emerging countries, China, and Europe. You seem to be focused on the last couple of years, during which the Austerians have impaired the economic recovery.

At the Kauffman conference someone raised the question of how much more job growth would have been if we had not starved state and local government. (I do not quote by name anyone with a glass of wine in his hand, but the person is a conservative thinker of long repute -- someone you would recognize).

Despite the worst efforts of government, we'll get back to long-term economic growth trends and probably overshooot!

I am delighted that your investments have done well. Would it surprise you to learn that many who share your skeptical thoughts elect to avoid stocks?

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1402951/comments?source=feed#comment-18471011 18471011
"Anticipating the global economy will be improving in the near term is akin to always be looking for a recession around the corner - both can be mistakes. "

You are putting this proposition the wrong way. Economic growth -- all else equal -- will eventually return to trend. It is the nature of a market-based economy to put slack resources to use. In the absence of a recession, we should expect growth to resume the trend. If we were growing above trend, I would be expecting a reduction.

This is a very important concept. The right sectors depend where you are in the business cycle. This is better measured by data than by comparing the length of time to past cycles.

As I noted in the post, the skepticism about the economy has become a multi-year phenomenon!

Thanks for the comment and links.

Jeff]]> Sun, 05 May 2013 17:55:35 -0400
"Anticipating the global economy will be improving in the near term is akin to always be looking for a recession around the corner - both can be mistakes. "

You are putting this proposition the wrong way. Economic growth -- all else equal -- will eventually return to trend. It is the nature of a market-based economy to put slack resources to use. In the absence of a recession, we should expect growth to resume the trend. If we were growing above trend, I would be expecting a reduction.

This is a very important concept. The right sectors depend where you are in the business cycle. This is better measured by data than by comparing the length of time to past cycles.

As I noted in the post, the skepticism about the economy has become a multi-year phenomenon!

Thanks for the comment and links.

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1392431/comments?source=feed#comment-18355341 18355341
Jeff]]> Thu, 02 May 2013 10:35:58 -0400
Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1392431/comments?source=feed#comment-18355241 18355241
Jeff]]> Thu, 02 May 2013 10:34:06 -0400
Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1357131/comments?source=feed#comment-18057761 18057761
My blog agenda currently has about 50 items on it, several of which are seriously overdue. I follow many things that I do not write about at that particular moment. That especially includes the work of several people who have earned special attention. Rortybomb is one of those people. I had the good fortune to spend all day Friday at the Kauffman Conference sitting next to him and also at dinner. We covered many topics, but he did not mention his upcoming article.

The weekly piece is difficult to assemble, partly because so much is left on the cutting room floor. I don't do the "Silver Bullet" thing very often. Sometimes it is something that people have not seen, but should. Other times it is already in the news but deserves additional recognition. I am always open to suggestions.

As to the conclusions from R & R I believe that this book was costly for many. I hope to write something more extensive on this topic soon, but I am not going to compose the article in the comments.

There is a general "world ending" meme that sells well with many potential investors. While you and I would not do so, many others use this as a way of selling unattractive investments that are illiquid and include big commissions.

It was not the intent of the authors, but it was the result.

Thanks again for your thoughtful comments and the links. Let us revisit this when I get around to the bigger installment. Meanwhile, you are most welcome to link to your own work, which we would all find interesting.

Jeff]]> Wed, 24 Apr 2013 20:54:21 -0400
My blog agenda currently has about 50 items on it, several of which are seriously overdue. I follow many things that I do not write about at that particular moment. That especially includes the work of several people who have earned special attention. Rortybomb is one of those people. I had the good fortune to spend all day Friday at the Kauffman Conference sitting next to him and also at dinner. We covered many topics, but he did not mention his upcoming article.

The weekly piece is difficult to assemble, partly because so much is left on the cutting room floor. I don't do the "Silver Bullet" thing very often. Sometimes it is something that people have not seen, but should. Other times it is already in the news but deserves additional recognition. I am always open to suggestions.

As to the conclusions from R & R I believe that this book was costly for many. I hope to write something more extensive on this topic soon, but I am not going to compose the article in the comments.

There is a general "world ending" meme that sells well with many potential investors. While you and I would not do so, many others use this as a way of selling unattractive investments that are illiquid and include big commissions.

It was not the intent of the authors, but it was the result.

Thanks again for your thoughtful comments and the links. Let us revisit this when I get around to the bigger installment. Meanwhile, you are most welcome to link to your own work, which we would all find interesting.

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1357131/comments?source=feed#comment-18013621 18013621
I urge all to follow. The initial R&R responses seem quite lame, but there is more to come.

There is a danger in your characterization of this as "pro-government" and the opposite.

I like to think about pro-investor and pro-economy. It is a better why to succeed as investors.

Anyone who got scared Witless (TM OldProf) by the R&R stuff has lost a lot of money. There was no tipping point....

Sorry about those who bought gold thinking that the US was the next Greece.....

That is what we should be analyzing.

Jeff]]> Tue, 23 Apr 2013 23:22:30 -0400
I urge all to follow. The initial R&R responses seem quite lame, but there is more to come.

There is a danger in your characterization of this as "pro-government" and the opposite.

I like to think about pro-investor and pro-economy. It is a better why to succeed as investors.

Anyone who got scared Witless (TM OldProf) by the R&R stuff has lost a lot of money. There was no tipping point....

Sorry about those who bought gold thinking that the US was the next Greece.....

That is what we should be analyzing.

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1357131/comments?source=feed#comment-17970361 17970361
I plan to write something on the R&R issue -- looking for some broader investment lessons.

Thanks for highlighting the link.

Jeff]]> Tue, 23 Apr 2013 08:09:16 -0400
I plan to write something on the R&R issue -- looking for some broader investment lessons.

Thanks for highlighting the link.

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1357131/comments?source=feed#comment-17962581 17962581
Jeff]]> Mon, 22 Apr 2013 23:15:55 -0400
Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1340501/comments?source=feed#comment-17673951 17673951
Thanks --

Jeff]]> Mon, 15 Apr 2013 22:22:59 -0400
Thanks --

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1340501/comments?source=feed#comment-17673901 17673901
There are many ways to make trading profits -- including assorted time frames. Felix has a proven, long-term record.

So yes -- it did hurt today (although less than the market decline). Looked at another way, Felix has kept us in the market for a long run where many have advocated the sidelines.

One thing about us is that we have a long-term public record. Who else?

Thanks for joining in!

Jeff]]> Mon, 15 Apr 2013 22:21:42 -0400
There are many ways to make trading profits -- including assorted time frames. Felix has a proven, long-term record.

So yes -- it did hurt today (although less than the market decline). Looked at another way, Felix has kept us in the market for a long run where many have advocated the sidelines.

One thing about us is that we have a long-term public record. Who else?

Thanks for joining in!

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1320561/comments?source=feed#comment-17370471 17370471
The monthly payroll number (the 88K) is net job growth. Actual job creation is well over 2 million/month.

I try to look at the forest versus the trees each week....http://seekingalpha.co...


Jeff

It is a ne]]> Mon, 08 Apr 2013 16:01:18 -0400
The monthly payroll number (the 88K) is net job growth. Actual job creation is well over 2 million/month.

I try to look at the forest versus the trees each week....http://seekingalpha.co...


Jeff

It is a ne]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1325781/comments?source=feed#comment-17370021 17370021
Investment versus spending is certainly a theme of interest.

Jeff]]> Mon, 08 Apr 2013 15:51:53 -0400
Investment versus spending is certainly a theme of interest.

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1320561/comments?source=feed#comment-17275051 17275051
Jeff]]> Fri, 05 Apr 2013 13:47:26 -0400
Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1320561/comments?source=feed#comment-17275011 17275011
I constantly reevaluate conclusions by following the data. When I suspect that a report might disappoint the market (as I did in this case) I do two things:

1) Time new positions with the risk in mind;
2) Make marginally different tactical calls for trading accounts. For example, Felix indicated a sale of one ETF yesterday (1/3 of our position). The replacement had a marginal rating, so I did the sale and held off on the buy. Felix is down a little today, but a lot less than the overall market.

What I am suggesting -- for the benefit of other readers since you already know this -- is that there are many objectives and time frames. The right more is often different as a result.

It is a good question.

Jeff]]> Fri, 05 Apr 2013 13:46:47 -0400
I constantly reevaluate conclusions by following the data. When I suspect that a report might disappoint the market (as I did in this case) I do two things:

1) Time new positions with the risk in mind;
2) Make marginally different tactical calls for trading accounts. For example, Felix indicated a sale of one ETF yesterday (1/3 of our position). The replacement had a marginal rating, so I did the sale and held off on the buy. Felix is down a little today, but a lot less than the overall market.

What I am suggesting -- for the benefit of other readers since you already know this -- is that there are many objectives and time frames. The right more is often different as a result.

It is a good question.

Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1309781/comments?source=feed#comment-17097941 17097941
Jeff]]> Mon, 01 Apr 2013 23:46:44 -0400
Jeff]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1309781/comments?source=feed#comment-17045511 17045511
But GDP is a popular final measure, even if difficult to understand. Most people still mistakenly think of recessions with the GDP rule of thumb definition.

I included this because I don't think that you should switch indicators to suit your purpose -- and I suspect that you agree!

Now turning to your explanation for Q4, it may well be correct. We certainly did see some income pulled forward. I guess we'll know in a few months.

As to how to use Felix's information -- The ratings are supposed to identify the sectors according to ranking. The approach is not subjective. The testing comes from both back tests and real time. I had a commenter a few years ago who opined that he could do better by buying the bottom of Felix's list -- the most oversold sectors. I warned him. It did not take long before he disappeared from the comment list!

I sincerely wish you the greatest success in analyzing charts and using various moving averages to find support. You should realize that this is exactly what Vince did in developing the model.

As I have noted, I often personally disagree with Felix, but that is because of my trader and value investor background.

If you followed Felix for a bit, you might find that the signals were similar to your own approach.

Best of luck, and best wishes for your investments.

Jeff]]> Sun, 31 Mar 2013 20:02:44 -0400
But GDP is a popular final measure, even if difficult to understand. Most people still mistakenly think of recessions with the GDP rule of thumb definition.

I included this because I don't think that you should switch indicators to suit your purpose -- and I suspect that you agree!

Now turning to your explanation for Q4, it may well be correct. We certainly did see some income pulled forward. I guess we'll know in a few months.

As to how to use Felix's information -- The ratings are supposed to identify the sectors according to ranking. The approach is not subjective. The testing comes from both back tests and real time. I had a commenter a few years ago who opined that he could do better by buying the bottom of Felix's list -- the most oversold sectors. I warned him. It did not take long before he disappeared from the comment list!

I sincerely wish you the greatest success in analyzing charts and using various moving averages to find support. You should realize that this is exactly what Vince did in developing the model.

As I have noted, I often personally disagree with Felix, but that is because of my trader and value investor background.

If you followed Felix for a bit, you might find that the signals were similar to your own approach.

Best of luck, and best wishes for your investments.

Jeff]]>