Seeking Alpha

Caladesi Kid

Caladesi Kid
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Caladesi Kid's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Reading The Economic Data With Clear Glasses [View article]
    Clear Glasses indeed! Thank you for a refreshing, unbiased assessment of recent economic conditions. Curious how/why the supposed wizards of Wall Street continue to promote equities in an economic reality of 2% GDP. Don't we know that corporate earnings cannot exceed GDP over the longer term? More significantly, if the balance of the world (ex USA) has flat to declining economic performance, how can corporate earnings continue to exceed +2%? Can net sales to China really support such lofty expectations?
    Mar 29 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More 2011 vibes: Italian lender UniCredit hits limit down (-5.7%) and is halted from trading. (previous)  [View news story]
    As the persistent drip of economic reality is induced into the euphoria, a growing number of investors are grasping the futility of FED actions.
    Mar 29 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Day Of Reckoning Is Only The Start [View article]
    The concern over default and CDS triggers is overblown. The fix is in. Greece has already defaulted, but you won't find that recognition in any of the press articles. New terms are being coined to avoid this reality. The ECB, like the Federal Reserve, is 'injecting liquidity' as a way to compensate the banks for their CDS exposure. In return, the banks won't claim a default, which in turn would trigger the CDS compensation. It is all a cozy, preordained arrangement. The ECB cannot, by law, bail out any sovereign entity. However, they are actively funding this bail out through their 'monetary easing' policies by providing banks free money which in turn is 'invested' in sovereign bonds. The frosting on the cake is the game of not declaring a default on Greek bonds, thereby no triggering of CDS terms. Oh yes, the fix is in.
    Feb 19 04:51 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The PBOC cuts bank reserve ratio requirements by 50 basis points to 20.5%, effective February 24, reports the WSJ. It's the second easing of policy in less than 90 days.  [View news story]
    Herd? What herd? Have you looked at the DOW, the S&P? The equity markets are clearly in a bullish phase, not a meltdown.
    Feb 19 04:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The PBOC cuts bank reserve ratio requirements by 50 basis points to 20.5%, effective February 24, reports the WSJ. It's the second easing of policy in less than 90 days.  [View news story]
    Easing of credit always has one cause and one purpose. The cause is a deteriorating economic condition. The purpose is to soften the blow. It really is that simple. China has a slowing economy due to reduced exports, which in turn are due to diminished economies in Europe and the US. The alarming indicator is how quickly China has eased again. "It's the second easing of policy in less than 90 days." Obviously the Chinese economy is deteriorating more than anticipated. Apparently, their exports are not meeting expectations.
    Feb 19 04:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Business Growth Is Wilting [View article]
    Despite the monetary printing presses working overtime in Europe and the US, the rate of economic improvement is deteriorating. We may well be repeating the 1920's pattern to set up a decade of reckoning (the 1930's). T. Geithner was candid in Congressional testimony this week that the current administration has no plan for curtailing the deficit spending. Talking heads on news shows this morning were touting the 'solution' to the Euro crisis was the injection of liquidity by the ECB (i.e. monetary expansion). Despite the diminishing returns (more printing for less economic growth), the easy political game of extend and pretend continues. Equity markets love the free money as well. Yet the future grows darker.
    Feb 19 04:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Business Growth Is Wilting [View article]
    Is the solution really that simple? Why should corporations 'bring back the jobs'? Would it be so they can pay 40% higher labor costs and higher tax rates? Who would buy their products at the correspondingly higher retail prices, you? Consumers are already stretched, many beyond the breaking point. Notice how well discount retailers are doing relative to the rest of the retail market? Why do you think WMT has become such a retail behemoth? It is because of lower prices, not higher prices to protect US labor rates. I encourage you to expand your understanding of economics. Blaming corporations is becoming very tiresome.
    Feb 19 03:55 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks languished for much of the day but bounced back minutes before the close to finish near breakeven on a report that Antonis Samaras, head of Greece's top opposition party, apparently reversed his objection to the bailout deal. Consumer staples and health care led the charge, while financials were weak. NYSE decliners led advancers three to two.  [View news story]
    Investors have long ago stepped out of this market to watch the speculators and media leverage their hysteria to even greater heights.
    Feb 14 10:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japanese stocks are higher in early trading, with major exporters rallying on further losses for the Japanese yen after the central bank surprised markets with fresh monetary easing. The Nikkei Average is currently up 0.9% to 9,128: Sony (SNE +2.5%), Panasonic (PC +2.2%), Toyota (TM +2.1%) and Mazda (MZDAY.PK +6.2%).  [View news story]
    Monetary easing, monetary easing, monetary easing. The mantra is seemingly the same all over the world. How long can the world economy be 'stimulated' before this ongoing sugar high loses it's effect? What happens when the music stops? A brief assessment of the diminished economic growth expectations and the Q4 earnings results ex-APPL indicates a subdued Q2 & Q3, 2012....but it is an election year so, party on!!
    Feb 14 10:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bulls Are Running Around The Globe [View article]
    TSA, thank you for a well reasoned and sober assessment of the equity market at this stage. Yes, the technical indicators have been calling for a pullback for the past few weeks. However, as you state, any pullback may well be modest as the bulls are firmly in charge. Much of this enthusiasm must be due to so many dollars chasing so few liquid assets. With Central Banks across Europe and the US continuing their easy money policies, all this fiat money is chasing yield where ever it may be found. With risk off, the Russell is soaring.

    Now the challenge is to be cautious and not be out of position when the music stops......as it inevitably will. Perhaps now is a good time to initiate a secure 'chair' or safe haven position. When the inevitable pause in buying occurs the question is how severe the pullback. Is volatility truly diminished or simply taking a vaca? Unrest in the Middle East and ongoing posturing in Greece may pivot the markets this coming week as earnings season winds down. Should be an interesting ride.
    Feb 5 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Is On An Ugly Road [View article]
    Bail outs? Bail outs? At this late stage there is still optimism about bailouts? Wow, reality does seem to evade so many people. The printing presses have been on hyper-drive for months in Europe and in the US yet there is still talk of bail outs? My goodness, free money and prolific free money policies are not enough? When this bill comes due, as it surely and always does, the world economy will suffer by at least an equal magnitude to the profligacy that is underway. If there are any adults left in government that have influence, now would be a good time to assert some influence. Sadly, the delay game continues with a growing darkness ahead due to the payback. Meanwhile we just skip along and glow in the wisdom of a rising stock market.........
    Feb 4 10:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With 243,000 jobs created in January, the economy is starting to look more positive, which might be a big plus for Pres. Obama in the November election. Current forecasts for labor growth point toward an extremely close election, Nate Silver writes - one in which every monthly fluctuation above or below a threshold of 150K jobs created could matter.  [View news story]
    An extremely close election would be a surprise. With the campaign season already underway, the government generated economic reports and mainstream media are already 'painting the tape'. Proof? Do you see any reporting on the millions that have fallen off the employment report, thereby 'improving' the rate of unemployment? Is there any balance in the reporting on the funding of 'green energy' favorites or on the varying testimony of the Attorney General? What about the back door funding of the ECB by the FED? Nope, not during the current administration. Perhaps we are slipping into the election charades formerly attributed to third world countries.
    Feb 4 10:12 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks powered to multiyear highs, with the Dow finishing at its best level since May 2008 and Nasdaq finishing near 11-year highs, buoyed by the jobs report that blew past estimates and solid ISM services data. The dollar reversed gains vs. the euro; 10-year Treasury yields jumped the most since October. NYSE gainers led losers four to one.  [View news story]
    You presume this passes for intellectual discussion?
    Feb 4 08:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks powered to multiyear highs, with the Dow finishing at its best level since May 2008 and Nasdaq finishing near 11-year highs, buoyed by the jobs report that blew past estimates and solid ISM services data. The dollar reversed gains vs. the euro; 10-year Treasury yields jumped the most since October. NYSE gainers led losers four to one.  [View news story]
    It is apparent your education did not include economic history or any exposure to fundamentals of how private business operates. If we are to rely on more and more government interference to 'stimulate' then our economy and our liberties are already destroyed. We are then left with only the debate on how slowly we sink into socialism.
    Feb 4 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitch slashes its debt ratings for Italy, Spain, Belgium, Slovenia, and Cyprus. Italy goes to A- from A+, Spain to A from AA-, Belgium to AA from AA+, Slovenia to A from AA-, and Cyprus to BBB- from BBB. (previously)  [View news story]
    Very curious timing. Fitch downgrades and stocks jump UP within one hour of the news release....... Look at how sharply GOOG, AAPL, AIG, C, MS, etc. jumped UP after 2 pm today. I doubt this is coincidental. Perhaps this was some sort of trigger? Who knows? Perhaps Greece is making nice.
    Jan 27 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
186 Comments
340 Likes