ceriba's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/555229/comments http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1038651?source=feed#comment-19087701 19087701 Tue, 21 May 2013 16:17:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1218551/comments?source=feed#comment-15507091 15507091 Tue, 26 Feb 2013 00:26:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1218551/comments?source=feed#comment-15507061 15507061 Tue, 26 Feb 2013 00:24:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1061651/comments?source=feed#comment-12587631 12587631 Thu, 13 Dec 2012 23:30:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/839771/comments?source=feed#comment-9022821 9022821 Sun, 02 Sep 2012 07:06:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/836511/comments?source=feed#comment-8960011 8960011 Although this would hurt German exports, it would not be disastrous. After all, most of their exports go to growth countries around the world. With an Almighty Mark buying out industries, residencies, resorts and other capital assets in the PIIGS, the end result may be a new European Union with German hegemony. Not something most Europeans would like or accept.
This speaks strongly FOR maintaining the Euro.]]> Thu, 30 Aug 2012 18:16:10 -0400 Although this would hurt German exports, it would not be disastrous. After all, most of their exports go to growth countries around the world. With an Almighty Mark buying out industries, residencies, resorts and other capital assets in the PIIGS, the end result may be a new European Union with German hegemony. Not something most Europeans would like or accept.
This speaks strongly FOR maintaining the Euro.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/706191/comments?source=feed#comment-7632581 7632581 I have agreed with predictions for most of the time, until lately. It seems to me, that your analysis is very much founded in the old world of thinking, where fundamental analysis of institutions' finances tended to predict future outcomes. Your financial analysis
of each sovereign country in stress, has been very deep and excellent. You have provided your readers with facts, that they would never have been able to find on their own. Thank you for that.

Since governments nowadays operate under the fiat system, they need not be constrained in their spending. Under the fiat money systems there is no set convertibility rate or fixed rate of exchange (i.e. gold standard). After all, the government is the monopoly issuer of the currency. This is working very well in the US, as long as the velocity of money is slow and there is no inflation.

Obviously,the European situation is different and only the ECB
can print more Euros. In my opinion, it is only a matter of time before the legalities are sorted out and necessary bailouts can occur for individual countries needs.
After all, why should the European elite let the whole system collapse, when there are obvious ways to prevent it?
There is no doubt that the ECB will come around to realize the value of creating more fiat currency, if only to buy more precious time. Perhaps the Germans are starting to smell the whiffs of deflation as well.....

And if people behave like people, street demonstrations may be satisfactory to vent anger, but only as a temporary solution. Deep down every citizen knows that burning buildings and destroying stores, will not help to solve the problem, only make it worse.

This is where hope plays a big role: the fiat system obviously can not last forever, without an honest balance sheet. In the end, no economy can survive on printing more money.
So far, the money printing is not even close to the trillion dollars that disappeared from our economies into a deep black hole!!!!!
And their are many more derivatives outstanding. Why do you think the FED could forecast such a low interest rate for the the next couple of years?
With patience and small incremental steps in overseeing the BANKS and their leverage and derivative operations, our present day system may last a lot longer and actually survive. Hopefully, corruption will be eliminated along the way and wealth more equally distributed..

The human spirit should never be underestimated. One will always find a way to survive, especially when there is no more food on the table and the government can not provide more handouts.
I believe that your time-line has been off, mainly due to underestimation of the fiat system and slow money velocity.
The MMT theory is not based at all on fundamentals and may very well be very useful in very turbulent times.

I wish you would change hats for a while, and try to predict
on the basis of a temporary fiat system. You would probably be surprised how long this could keep the system going!]]> Sun, 22 Jul 2012 03:09:18 -0400 I have agreed with predictions for most of the time, until lately. It seems to me, that your analysis is very much founded in the old world of thinking, where fundamental analysis of institutions' finances tended to predict future outcomes. Your financial analysis
of each sovereign country in stress, has been very deep and excellent. You have provided your readers with facts, that they would never have been able to find on their own. Thank you for that.

Since governments nowadays operate under the fiat system, they need not be constrained in their spending. Under the fiat money systems there is no set convertibility rate or fixed rate of exchange (i.e. gold standard). After all, the government is the monopoly issuer of the currency. This is working very well in the US, as long as the velocity of money is slow and there is no inflation.

Obviously,the European situation is different and only the ECB
can print more Euros. In my opinion, it is only a matter of time before the legalities are sorted out and necessary bailouts can occur for individual countries needs.
After all, why should the European elite let the whole system collapse, when there are obvious ways to prevent it?
There is no doubt that the ECB will come around to realize the value of creating more fiat currency, if only to buy more precious time. Perhaps the Germans are starting to smell the whiffs of deflation as well.....

And if people behave like people, street demonstrations may be satisfactory to vent anger, but only as a temporary solution. Deep down every citizen knows that burning buildings and destroying stores, will not help to solve the problem, only make it worse.

This is where hope plays a big role: the fiat system obviously can not last forever, without an honest balance sheet. In the end, no economy can survive on printing more money.
So far, the money printing is not even close to the trillion dollars that disappeared from our economies into a deep black hole!!!!!
And their are many more derivatives outstanding. Why do you think the FED could forecast such a low interest rate for the the next couple of years?
With patience and small incremental steps in overseeing the BANKS and their leverage and derivative operations, our present day system may last a lot longer and actually survive. Hopefully, corruption will be eliminated along the way and wealth more equally distributed..

The human spirit should never be underestimated. One will always find a way to survive, especially when there is no more food on the table and the government can not provide more handouts.
I believe that your time-line has been off, mainly due to underestimation of the fiat system and slow money velocity.
The MMT theory is not based at all on fundamentals and may very well be very useful in very turbulent times.

I wish you would change hats for a while, and try to predict
on the basis of a temporary fiat system. You would probably be surprised how long this could keep the system going!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/734891/comments?source=feed#comment-7613791 7613791 Thanks for a very informative article. Only one question:
Why do you project a meager 25 % royalty payment from a future European partner's sales of Belviq?
Eisai is going be financially responsible for a lot of the post-marketing studies for non-European countries. Yet, they will have to pay much higher royalty payments to Arena. Please explain discrepancy.]]> Sat, 21 Jul 2012 02:38:20 -0400 Thanks for a very informative article. Only one question:
Why do you project a meager 25 % royalty payment from a future European partner's sales of Belviq?
Eisai is going be financially responsible for a lot of the post-marketing studies for non-European countries. Yet, they will have to pay much higher royalty payments to Arena. Please explain discrepancy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/691831/comments?source=feed#comment-7162961 7162961 "REPURPOSED" drugs mean and how they can affect and shorten the FDA approval process, for a new indication. After all, the drug has ALREADY been APPROVED for another use and deemed to be safe. Moreover, it is still being sold in the market place.
Yes, all drugs have some side effects. The truth is , that most of us but most of us are no vegetarians or RAW GREEN FOODS enthusiasts. We are all guilty of living unhealthful lifestyles and need some help with our issues.
Before anybody makes a judgement, is preserving your eyesight or enhancing your woman's sexlife, not something to wish for everybody?
Just ask yourselves why Richard Cavalli was hired by
Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet in the first place, many years ago? Warren Buffet is a very honest man and would not hire a pumper. He would have to be convinced that his new hire knew his stuff.
OK, so why does not Richard Cavalli own a whole lot of Ampio stock? Most of our financial situations change drastically from unforeseen circumstances, being it personal or severe downdrafts in the markets. Markets have not been this volatile, for a very long time. It is not always possible to commit money where your mouth is. However, a good company with tremendous potential should not be overlooked.
As for myself, I am convinced that Ampio will be a winner, sooner than later. Why? Because it has"REPURPOSED" drugs to offer , i.e. already FDA approved.
Question to sceptics: do you think it would be hard to find a partner, willing to conduct a Phase 3 evaluation of drugs for Optina (blindness) or Zertane (premature ejaculation)?

Cheers to a clear vision and improved sexlife!]]> Sun, 08 Jul 2012 02:31:46 -0400 "REPURPOSED" drugs mean and how they can affect and shorten the FDA approval process, for a new indication. After all, the drug has ALREADY been APPROVED for another use and deemed to be safe. Moreover, it is still being sold in the market place.
Yes, all drugs have some side effects. The truth is , that most of us but most of us are no vegetarians or RAW GREEN FOODS enthusiasts. We are all guilty of living unhealthful lifestyles and need some help with our issues.
Before anybody makes a judgement, is preserving your eyesight or enhancing your woman's sexlife, not something to wish for everybody?
Just ask yourselves why Richard Cavalli was hired by
Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet in the first place, many years ago? Warren Buffet is a very honest man and would not hire a pumper. He would have to be convinced that his new hire knew his stuff.
OK, so why does not Richard Cavalli own a whole lot of Ampio stock? Most of our financial situations change drastically from unforeseen circumstances, being it personal or severe downdrafts in the markets. Markets have not been this volatile, for a very long time. It is not always possible to commit money where your mouth is. However, a good company with tremendous potential should not be overlooked.
As for myself, I am convinced that Ampio will be a winner, sooner than later. Why? Because it has"REPURPOSED" drugs to offer , i.e. already FDA approved.
Question to sceptics: do you think it would be hard to find a partner, willing to conduct a Phase 3 evaluation of drugs for Optina (blindness) or Zertane (premature ejaculation)?

Cheers to a clear vision and improved sexlife!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/623001/comments?source=feed#comment-6761221 6761221 What are the chances that IMF will come up with all this money?
The rest of the world is talking about setting up their own currency exchange, bypassing the Euro and the Dollar. It does not look as if any country is willing to risk any more money, not until drastic changes take place.]]> Mon, 25 Jun 2012 09:18:05 -0400 What are the chances that IMF will come up with all this money?
The rest of the world is talking about setting up their own currency exchange, bypassing the Euro and the Dollar. It does not look as if any country is willing to risk any more money, not until drastic changes take place.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/665471/comments?source=feed#comment-6668581 6668581 The scientific results on Optina actually speak for themselves. I can't wait until the Canadian study is corroborated.
Also, Zertane looks extremely promising for enhancing and perhaps even changing peoples sex lives.
Just ask any woman, how often premature ejaculation puts a dead stop to their enjoyment. No wonder so many women lose interest
with time....]]> Thu, 21 Jun 2012 18:27:49 -0400 The scientific results on Optina actually speak for themselves. I can't wait until the Canadian study is corroborated.
Also, Zertane looks extremely promising for enhancing and perhaps even changing peoples sex lives.
Just ask any woman, how often premature ejaculation puts a dead stop to their enjoyment. No wonder so many women lose interest
with time....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/665471/comments?source=feed#comment-6595231 6595231 I applaude Dr.Bar-O for isolating the protein, AMPION, that inhibits This is indeed an enormous contribution in the treatment of acute brain injuries. Not only that, but the severe inflammatory response in osteoarthritis is stopped dead in its track, according to the results in the Australian study.
Without doubt, Zertane and Ampion are extremely promising.To invest wisely, one needs to know what the schedule is for FDA to review/approve these drugs.
Obviously, these two drugs are Ampeo's promising champions so far,
But, who are the cutting edge biochemists RIGHT NOW at Ampio to discover possible future usefullness of outdated patented drugs? There must be a deep understanding
of biochemical pathways, in order to imagine a possible future use of an old FDA approved drug.
How can Ampeo possibly meet this requirement?
The answer is NO: but there is a chance they are very attractive for a TAKEOVER. HOLD YOUR BREATH!]]> Wed, 20 Jun 2012 01:25:25 -0400 I applaude Dr.Bar-O for isolating the protein, AMPION, that inhibits This is indeed an enormous contribution in the treatment of acute brain injuries. Not only that, but the severe inflammatory response in osteoarthritis is stopped dead in its track, according to the results in the Australian study.
Without doubt, Zertane and Ampion are extremely promising.To invest wisely, one needs to know what the schedule is for FDA to review/approve these drugs.
Obviously, these two drugs are Ampeo's promising champions so far,
But, who are the cutting edge biochemists RIGHT NOW at Ampio to discover possible future usefullness of outdated patented drugs? There must be a deep understanding
of biochemical pathways, in order to imagine a possible future use of an old FDA approved drug.
How can Ampeo possibly meet this requirement?
The answer is NO: but there is a chance they are very attractive for a TAKEOVER. HOLD YOUR BREATH!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/649861/comments?source=feed#comment-6329871 6329871 German prosperity has been dependent on their exports to southern European countries.This is, after all, how they accumulated so much wealth. They provided endless loans to Greece and Spain, just so these countries would be able to continue to buy German products.
If Germany/Switzerland were to leave the Eurozone now, it would cost them an arm and a leg! They would experience
a big drop in their GDP.

In my opinion, you have neglected the most obvious way out of this crisis, no matter how bad and unpopular the solution may be: MORE MONEY PRINTING. After all,
as long as the money velocity is low (meaning no inflation) , this does not entail a lot of danger. IN FACT, THIS IS
THE ONLY WAY OUT! Consumers are all tapped out and once the banks get healthy (through more bailouts), they will hopefully start lending again.
The IMF, the FED and ECB will make sure that the Euro (and hence the whole banking system) does NOT COLLAPSE There are many ways to circumvent laws that prohibit the WORLD CENTRAL BANKING SYSTEM (the FED, ECB , IMF, ESM, SMP etc) to bail out sovereigns or banks directly. They WILL DO IT, such as LLC's and other back-doors.
WHY DO THIS? If they do not do this, the result will be a worldwide DEPRESSION. Maybe this is what the world actually needs now: to slow down its excessive persuit of growth, without any regards to the supply of natural resources or well-being of the ordinary citizen. The present capitalist concept is: as long as a company grows, everybody will benefit. Maybe a slower growth, would redistribute some of the wealth to the "have not's"?
Sooner or later, when people have no food on the table and NO HOPE, a very likely uprising is in the making.
We are approaching this stage very rapidly. Very few government interventions will be able to stop this!
I am a firm believer in the capitalist system. My belief in this system has unfortunately been trespassed. Through
massive speculation, over-leverage and questionable or fraudulent insider activities, the ordinary citizen has lost much of their wealth and belief in the system.
The regulatory agencies have no way to keep up with Wall Streets inventions and invention of new derivate instruments. Our system may therefore collapse, sooner or later, just like a Ponzi scheme....
It will be important to cleanse all the greed out of our system and return to the basics, where all human beings have the right to the persuite of happiness. Right now, our constitution is far from being fullfilled....


overleveraging and public disception.]]> Tue, 12 Jun 2012 01:07:39 -0400 German prosperity has been dependent on their exports to southern European countries.This is, after all, how they accumulated so much wealth. They provided endless loans to Greece and Spain, just so these countries would be able to continue to buy German products.
If Germany/Switzerland were to leave the Eurozone now, it would cost them an arm and a leg! They would experience
a big drop in their GDP.

In my opinion, you have neglected the most obvious way out of this crisis, no matter how bad and unpopular the solution may be: MORE MONEY PRINTING. After all,
as long as the money velocity is low (meaning no inflation) , this does not entail a lot of danger. IN FACT, THIS IS
THE ONLY WAY OUT! Consumers are all tapped out and once the banks get healthy (through more bailouts), they will hopefully start lending again.
The IMF, the FED and ECB will make sure that the Euro (and hence the whole banking system) does NOT COLLAPSE There are many ways to circumvent laws that prohibit the WORLD CENTRAL BANKING SYSTEM (the FED, ECB , IMF, ESM, SMP etc) to bail out sovereigns or banks directly. They WILL DO IT, such as LLC's and other back-doors.
WHY DO THIS? If they do not do this, the result will be a worldwide DEPRESSION. Maybe this is what the world actually needs now: to slow down its excessive persuit of growth, without any regards to the supply of natural resources or well-being of the ordinary citizen. The present capitalist concept is: as long as a company grows, everybody will benefit. Maybe a slower growth, would redistribute some of the wealth to the "have not's"?
Sooner or later, when people have no food on the table and NO HOPE, a very likely uprising is in the making.
We are approaching this stage very rapidly. Very few government interventions will be able to stop this!
I am a firm believer in the capitalist system. My belief in this system has unfortunately been trespassed. Through
massive speculation, over-leverage and questionable or fraudulent insider activities, the ordinary citizen has lost much of their wealth and belief in the system.
The regulatory agencies have no way to keep up with Wall Streets inventions and invention of new derivate instruments. Our system may therefore collapse, sooner or later, just like a Ponzi scheme....
It will be important to cleanse all the greed out of our system and return to the basics, where all human beings have the right to the persuite of happiness. Right now, our constitution is far from being fullfilled....


overleveraging and public disception.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/319823/comments?source=feed#comment-6086101 6086101 Mon, 04 Jun 2012 09:16:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/319823/comments?source=feed#comment-6076951 6076951 What do you think the chances are that Greece will exit the Euro?
A few words from you will be appreciated !]]> Sun, 03 Jun 2012 21:13:47 -0400 What do you think the chances are that Greece will exit the Euro?
A few words from you will be appreciated !]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/621691/comments?source=feed#comment-5897231 5897231 Another chart that may be very helpful is $VIX:SPY. It looks as if fear today has decreased, which does not make sense considering all the uncertainty in Europe.]]> Tue, 29 May 2012 11:20:31 -0400 Another chart that may be very helpful is $VIX:SPY. It looks as if fear today has decreased, which does not make sense considering all the uncertainty in Europe.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/319823/comments?source=feed#comment-5396321 5396321 Do you really think the FED or the ECB would allow a run on DB?
The consequences would be disastrous. I am sure the officials would opt to print more money, as long as inflation is not a threat.

The modern world has become so efficient, that there simply is not enough new jobs to be created for everybody. In a way, I see this is a "silver lining". The world economies were growing at much too fast a pace, rapdidly depleting all natural resources. Why not accept growth of 2% as the new norm? Everybody should have food on the table. This means that redistribution of wealth is inevitable. The era of "gazillionaires" will end, in order to restore peace in the streets.]]> Sun, 13 May 2012 15:11:36 -0400 Do you really think the FED or the ECB would allow a run on DB?
The consequences would be disastrous. I am sure the officials would opt to print more money, as long as inflation is not a threat.

The modern world has become so efficient, that there simply is not enough new jobs to be created for everybody. In a way, I see this is a "silver lining". The world economies were growing at much too fast a pace, rapdidly depleting all natural resources. Why not accept growth of 2% as the new norm? Everybody should have food on the table. This means that redistribution of wealth is inevitable. The era of "gazillionaires" will end, in order to restore peace in the streets.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/319823/comments?source=feed#comment-5393411 5393411 Dr.V, now, you are predicting a significant event before May 24, in Germany none-the-less. Not knowing the pay-back debt schedule for the PIIGS, nor the schedule for parliamentary elections, it is very hard to contemplate or digest your prediction.More background facts to support your prediction would be appreciated.
It seems as if the Greeks,Spaniards and Portuguese have a much bigger reason to march in the streets. Besides, the Germans are usually a little more levelheaded than to instigate civil unrest. When was the last time they marched in the streets and destroyed their own property?]]> Sun, 13 May 2012 13:03:56 -0400 Dr.V, now, you are predicting a significant event before May 24, in Germany none-the-less. Not knowing the pay-back debt schedule for the PIIGS, nor the schedule for parliamentary elections, it is very hard to contemplate or digest your prediction.More background facts to support your prediction would be appreciated.
It seems as if the Greeks,Spaniards and Portuguese have a much bigger reason to march in the streets. Besides, the Germans are usually a little more levelheaded than to instigate civil unrest. When was the last time they marched in the streets and destroyed their own property?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/319823/comments?source=feed#comment-5305251 5305251
You just confirmed my worst fears i.e. the elite insiders will use the funds to best suit the needs of their own sovereign.
Since Germany has all the clout, their needs will be met first.

In the real world,assets are not distributed democratically. As in Nature, there is a pecking order.This system was acceptable as long as everybody got a piece of the pie, no matter how small or large. After years of mismanagement and greed, the system is collapsing big time. Actually, there was no authority looking to reign in massive over-leveraging. While everybody was getting rich (on paper at least), why should anybody try to stop the action?

Peter continued to rob Paul to pay back his debts. Until an alarm bell rang and there was no more money in the banks. A brand new idea for rescue had to be arranged: why not activate the printing presses and have central banks distribute the money to make them whole again. If only Bernie Madoff would have had his private printing press! The Ponzi scheme would perhaps never been discovered until his death.

Something has to give very soon; the scheme could be carried on for a while longer with the printing press working overtime.

There is only one real hope for a drastic change: ORDINARY PEOPLE.When there is no food on the table and no jobs to be had, revolts occur, often through violent means. When the youth unemployment rate reaches 25%, you bet your dollar that the young people will start to march in the streets. What else can they do?

The only other way out, is to scrutinize EFSF and have them made public.Somebody has to be willing to take some heat and ask the right questions.This is an extraordinary task to take on and can not be accomplished by one person. You are only as successful as your team-players! They have to be very sophisticated in both economics and governing EU laws.Your success will depend a lot on your team players.

GOOD LUCK!

PS What happened to James Kostohryz? This is his website and I would like to hear his thoughts on these new revelations. They are at least new to me.....]]> Thu, 10 May 2012 13:30:54 -0400
You just confirmed my worst fears i.e. the elite insiders will use the funds to best suit the needs of their own sovereign.
Since Germany has all the clout, their needs will be met first.

In the real world,assets are not distributed democratically. As in Nature, there is a pecking order.This system was acceptable as long as everybody got a piece of the pie, no matter how small or large. After years of mismanagement and greed, the system is collapsing big time. Actually, there was no authority looking to reign in massive over-leveraging. While everybody was getting rich (on paper at least), why should anybody try to stop the action?

Peter continued to rob Paul to pay back his debts. Until an alarm bell rang and there was no more money in the banks. A brand new idea for rescue had to be arranged: why not activate the printing presses and have central banks distribute the money to make them whole again. If only Bernie Madoff would have had his private printing press! The Ponzi scheme would perhaps never been discovered until his death.

Something has to give very soon; the scheme could be carried on for a while longer with the printing press working overtime.

There is only one real hope for a drastic change: ORDINARY PEOPLE.When there is no food on the table and no jobs to be had, revolts occur, often through violent means. When the youth unemployment rate reaches 25%, you bet your dollar that the young people will start to march in the streets. What else can they do?

The only other way out, is to scrutinize EFSF and have them made public.Somebody has to be willing to take some heat and ask the right questions.This is an extraordinary task to take on and can not be accomplished by one person. You are only as successful as your team-players! They have to be very sophisticated in both economics and governing EU laws.Your success will depend a lot on your team players.

GOOD LUCK!

PS What happened to James Kostohryz? This is his website and I would like to hear his thoughts on these new revelations. They are at least new to me.....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/319823/comments?source=feed#comment-5282171 5282171 All those zeroes make me very dizzy. From what I can gather from your data, the central banks have already tried to inflate by printing massive amounts of money. Unfortunately, with very little effect. The money velocity has been close to 0. People do not have any more money, nor any prospects for a new job. There is only one demand left:
another loan.
Let's consider the following scenario:
ECB established an entity (LLC) in order to "legally" be able to shuttle funds to banks in need. It is very unlikely that the LLC will be in the black any time soon. What then? Will there be another 3-year LLC to follow? It will just be a question of time before the LLC's declare bankruptcy. Are not most of the loans then wiped off the banks balance sheets? The ECB has no liability. No one has any money to repay any-body. Deflation /depression ensues. The era of central banking is over.The FED and ECB are abolished,
finally. Local banks are in charge again of balancing money supply and demand, according to prevailing market conditions.
I am trying to see the forest for the trees here and welcome your comments.
]]> Wed, 09 May 2012 21:27:50 -0400 All those zeroes make me very dizzy. From what I can gather from your data, the central banks have already tried to inflate by printing massive amounts of money. Unfortunately, with very little effect. The money velocity has been close to 0. People do not have any more money, nor any prospects for a new job. There is only one demand left:
another loan.
Let's consider the following scenario:
ECB established an entity (LLC) in order to "legally" be able to shuttle funds to banks in need. It is very unlikely that the LLC will be in the black any time soon. What then? Will there be another 3-year LLC to follow? It will just be a question of time before the LLC's declare bankruptcy. Are not most of the loans then wiped off the banks balance sheets? The ECB has no liability. No one has any money to repay any-body. Deflation /depression ensues. The era of central banking is over.The FED and ECB are abolished,
finally. Local banks are in charge again of balancing money supply and demand, according to prevailing market conditions.
I am trying to see the forest for the trees here and welcome your comments.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/319823/comments?source=feed#comment-5216201 5216201 Tue, 08 May 2012 11:09:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/319823/comments?source=feed#comment-5188621 5188621 There is nothing written in the mass media regarding Germany's staggering EU Debt. How could this happen, considering that Germany was the strongest economy in Europe? Your thoughts and knowledge of true facts would be appreciated.
Granted, the union of West Germany and East Germany cost them a lot of money. Despite this, they were able to lend billions of dollars to the PIIGS for many,many years, until the PIIGS could not afford to borrow any more.
In hindsight, was this money that Germany never had? Could it be that greedy bankers over-leveraged, just like in the US ? This worldwide phenomenon has yet to unravel
completely. It looks as if the frugal and austere -minded Germans will be added to the list of the succumbed.
The German debt situation must be deteriorating even further, as we speak. The PIIGS will be unable to pay back any debt, when the bailout mechanisms start to peter out.
I am afraid to ask, how fast is Germany's Debt/GDP ratio growing today? What is the inflection point for no more lending? Do you think that they have enough courage or willpower to continue until they see the whites of the eye of rapidly growing inflation? Will that be their inflection point?
Yes, the European elite had a beautiful dream, a dream that would unify them all. Unfortunately, it was purely intellectual with no practical underpinnings.
Good Luck to all of us!]]> Mon, 07 May 2012 14:50:34 -0400 There is nothing written in the mass media regarding Germany's staggering EU Debt. How could this happen, considering that Germany was the strongest economy in Europe? Your thoughts and knowledge of true facts would be appreciated.
Granted, the union of West Germany and East Germany cost them a lot of money. Despite this, they were able to lend billions of dollars to the PIIGS for many,many years, until the PIIGS could not afford to borrow any more.
In hindsight, was this money that Germany never had? Could it be that greedy bankers over-leveraged, just like in the US ? This worldwide phenomenon has yet to unravel
completely. It looks as if the frugal and austere -minded Germans will be added to the list of the succumbed.
The German debt situation must be deteriorating even further, as we speak. The PIIGS will be unable to pay back any debt, when the bailout mechanisms start to peter out.
I am afraid to ask, how fast is Germany's Debt/GDP ratio growing today? What is the inflection point for no more lending? Do you think that they have enough courage or willpower to continue until they see the whites of the eye of rapidly growing inflation? Will that be their inflection point?
Yes, the European elite had a beautiful dream, a dream that would unify them all. Unfortunately, it was purely intellectual with no practical underpinnings.
Good Luck to all of us!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/319823/comments?source=feed#comment-5158771 5158771 This Sunday's elections in France and Greece will undoubtedly bring more uncertainty to the markets. An inflection point is near, if not already happening!]]> Sun, 06 May 2012 14:51:40 -0400 This Sunday's elections in France and Greece will undoubtedly bring more uncertainty to the markets. An inflection point is near, if not already happening!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/319823/comments?source=feed#comment-4925451 4925451 I admire you for your guts in predicting certain time-lines for an EZ collapse. So far,I have learned that the FED and ECB(belatedly) will sporadically intervene in the markets. This muddies up all your predictions. Their hope is naturally, that the crisis can be averted by pumping more money into the system.
Actually, the FED has done an exceptional job in continuing our bankrupt society (i e. banking system) going. They obviously hope that all of us will find a job, sooner or later. I doubt sincerely, that this will ever happen. America is a mature society and will have to leave the mantle to other developing societies. Our Treasury hopes that the added income taxes (from more employees) will eventually balance the deficit. This assumes that the expenditures of the Government are cut down to size. Good Luck!
QUESTION: who are we trying to fool?
The stimulating efforts of the FED and the ECB will work their temporary wonder, but for however long ? It actually could be several years, before people are ready to borrow more money. Most of them are already in deep depth.
Therefore, it would be extremely difficult to provide a certain date of demise. Sooner or later, the printing presses have to stop and address REALITY: we have been over-leveraged and now have to stop borrowing and pay off our debts. The efforts of the FED (and the ECB),may keep the economies going for quite some years. It is all an illusion:until we find new jobs for everybody, the deficit will continue to grow.
Without much hope,
Baiba]]> Mon, 30 Apr 2012 03:10:32 -0400 I admire you for your guts in predicting certain time-lines for an EZ collapse. So far,I have learned that the FED and ECB(belatedly) will sporadically intervene in the markets. This muddies up all your predictions. Their hope is naturally, that the crisis can be averted by pumping more money into the system.
Actually, the FED has done an exceptional job in continuing our bankrupt society (i e. banking system) going. They obviously hope that all of us will find a job, sooner or later. I doubt sincerely, that this will ever happen. America is a mature society and will have to leave the mantle to other developing societies. Our Treasury hopes that the added income taxes (from more employees) will eventually balance the deficit. This assumes that the expenditures of the Government are cut down to size. Good Luck!
QUESTION: who are we trying to fool?
The stimulating efforts of the FED and the ECB will work their temporary wonder, but for however long ? It actually could be several years, before people are ready to borrow more money. Most of them are already in deep depth.
Therefore, it would be extremely difficult to provide a certain date of demise. Sooner or later, the printing presses have to stop and address REALITY: we have been over-leveraged and now have to stop borrowing and pay off our debts. The efforts of the FED (and the ECB),may keep the economies going for quite some years. It is all an illusion:until we find new jobs for everybody, the deficit will continue to grow.
Without much hope,
Baiba]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/424951/comments?source=feed#comment-3388841 3388841 Your comments on Seeking alpha have been very educational and a good guide to future developments, especially in the continuous saga of the Eurozone. Between your comments and those of James Kostohryz (also on "seeking alpha"), the picture usually becomes a little clearer. Both of you expect the EZ to eventually fall off a cliff with several countries having to leave the zone. However, your opinions diverge greatly as far as a domino effect of failing CDS's due to overhypothecation ( i.e. issuing banks using the same collateral more than once).James thinks that the amount of hypothecation does not matter. Why? Because the original lending bank is only responsible for paying back the initial insured amount. This may be true as far as avoiding this bank to go bankrupt. Still, this does not mean that there will not be a domino effect for the third or four party bank. However, is it not only the big banks that matter????? The bankruptcy of smaller banks will undoubtedly affect the country's overall economy severely. I suppose James is only addressing the possibility of major banks collapsing. If this happens, everything else is secondary.....
NOTE: Your view is much different. Please comment on his views.
You cite the estimated gross and the net amount of outstanding CDS's. Since the CDS market is not transparent, how do you arrive to your numbers ? If the net CDS exposure is $3 bln in Greece, but the gross exposure is actually $60-70 bln, one wonders in horror what the gross exposure will be in the much larger economies like Spain and Italy?
In my opinion, as long as the money velocity remains low, the ECB will keep the EZ going , just like the FED does in the U.S. Thanks to the printing press. The Europeans have been very imaginative in providing the debt-ridden banks indirectly with enough reserves. Eventually, the economies will turn around when government spending is less than its revenues. Nobody will have to fall off a cliff then. Granted, this may take a decade to achieve, but it is possible.
The printing presses will continue until all debt has been paid off.
The amount of leverage utilized in the last 10 years has been unprecedented. A lot of people were enriched during this period. When the financial house of cards finally collapsed, the naked truth became clear, who had suffered the most: the consumer. Until he has a decent job, it is highely unlikely that prosperity will return.
Best,
Baiba]]> Sun, 11 Mar 2012 23:44:19 -0400 Your comments on Seeking alpha have been very educational and a good guide to future developments, especially in the continuous saga of the Eurozone. Between your comments and those of James Kostohryz (also on "seeking alpha"), the picture usually becomes a little clearer. Both of you expect the EZ to eventually fall off a cliff with several countries having to leave the zone. However, your opinions diverge greatly as far as a domino effect of failing CDS's due to overhypothecation ( i.e. issuing banks using the same collateral more than once).James thinks that the amount of hypothecation does not matter. Why? Because the original lending bank is only responsible for paying back the initial insured amount. This may be true as far as avoiding this bank to go bankrupt. Still, this does not mean that there will not be a domino effect for the third or four party bank. However, is it not only the big banks that matter????? The bankruptcy of smaller banks will undoubtedly affect the country's overall economy severely. I suppose James is only addressing the possibility of major banks collapsing. If this happens, everything else is secondary.....
NOTE: Your view is much different. Please comment on his views.
You cite the estimated gross and the net amount of outstanding CDS's. Since the CDS market is not transparent, how do you arrive to your numbers ? If the net CDS exposure is $3 bln in Greece, but the gross exposure is actually $60-70 bln, one wonders in horror what the gross exposure will be in the much larger economies like Spain and Italy?
In my opinion, as long as the money velocity remains low, the ECB will keep the EZ going , just like the FED does in the U.S. Thanks to the printing press. The Europeans have been very imaginative in providing the debt-ridden banks indirectly with enough reserves. Eventually, the economies will turn around when government spending is less than its revenues. Nobody will have to fall off a cliff then. Granted, this may take a decade to achieve, but it is possible.
The printing presses will continue until all debt has been paid off.
The amount of leverage utilized in the last 10 years has been unprecedented. A lot of people were enriched during this period. When the financial house of cards finally collapsed, the naked truth became clear, who had suffered the most: the consumer. Until he has a decent job, it is highely unlikely that prosperity will return.
Best,
Baiba]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/424941/comments?source=feed#comment-3387411 3387411 Since Spain, Italy and France are much larger economies than Greece, I assume their banks net CDS exposure is much larger.
What do you think their goss amount would be?]]> Sun, 11 Mar 2012 22:15:16 -0400 Since Spain, Italy and France are much larger economies than Greece, I assume their banks net CDS exposure is much larger.
What do you think their goss amount would be?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/424941/comments?source=feed#comment-3383731 3383731 If your estimate of a gross exposure of CDS in Greece is $60-70 bln , what is your estimate of gross exposure in much larger economies such as Spain, Italy and France? ]]> Sun, 11 Mar 2012 17:22:46 -0400 If your estimate of a gross exposure of CDS in Greece is $60-70 bln , what is your estimate of gross exposure in much larger economies such as Spain, Italy and France? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/376361/comments?source=feed#comment-3368091 3368091 So far you have been right on the triggering of CDS on Greek sovereign debt being a non-event.From what I have read, the CDS situation for Spain and Italy (and France?) is much different from and much much larger. There is serious doubt the IMF and ECB will be willing to bail out these much larger economies. This could cause the CDS to trigger at a much earlier stage and cause dominoes to fall....
Please share your thoughts on this.
Best regards,
Baiba
]]> Sat, 10 Mar 2012 22:57:58 -0500 So far you have been right on the triggering of CDS on Greek sovereign debt being a non-event.From what I have read, the CDS situation for Spain and Italy (and France?) is much different from and much much larger. There is serious doubt the IMF and ECB will be willing to bail out these much larger economies. This could cause the CDS to trigger at a much earlier stage and cause dominoes to fall....
Please share your thoughts on this.
Best regards,
Baiba
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/400001/comments?source=feed#comment-3054551 3054551 You state that ECB will have priority in a bankruptcy/liquidation and that this may deter private investors to invest in sovereign bonds.
I concur with your conclusion. What prevents the ECB to change the granted seniority? It seems to me that the ECB artificial stimulus rules out any natural market incentives of private investors.
ECB will be able to stimulate forever. They can always "print more". At this crucial time, the private investor needs to know that he has priority and not the Bank. It is not written in stone, that the Banks always have to win...... There needs to be a big change in the banking system, including the ECB. The public has been taken advantage of for way too long.
Do you have any positive changes to suggest ?
My feelings are that leveraging (= speculation) should be banned in the banking system and that the ECB does not deserve priority. Their priority distorts the natural forces in the markets.
All the best to you,
Baiba]]> Thu, 01 Mar 2012 01:54:08 -0500 You state that ECB will have priority in a bankruptcy/liquidation and that this may deter private investors to invest in sovereign bonds.
I concur with your conclusion. What prevents the ECB to change the granted seniority? It seems to me that the ECB artificial stimulus rules out any natural market incentives of private investors.
ECB will be able to stimulate forever. They can always "print more". At this crucial time, the private investor needs to know that he has priority and not the Bank. It is not written in stone, that the Banks always have to win...... There needs to be a big change in the banking system, including the ECB. The public has been taken advantage of for way too long.
Do you have any positive changes to suggest ?
My feelings are that leveraging (= speculation) should be banned in the banking system and that the ECB does not deserve priority. Their priority distorts the natural forces in the markets.
All the best to you,
Baiba]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/400001/comments?source=feed#comment-3053641 3053641 have installed sophisticated technocrats to manage their economies, rather than jaded politicians. The ECB will continue to ensure there is enough liquidity to prevent the collapse of the Euro. If it does not do this, everyone knows that there will be a chaotic dissolution of the Euro. If one can firewall Greece, this disaster may be avoided. But, it is still possible they may let Greece default.
The wellbeing of all the EZ countries (and the purpose of establishing the Euro currency), was to have a free trade zone. Germany realizes, that if Greece, Italy and Spain's sovereign debts were allowed to default, their own export machine to these countries would be much damaged. There are no other choices, than for the ECB to come to the rescue.
The European LTRO idea was a brilliant stroke!
If the ECB provides liquidity through LTRO's, it can continue to do this for many more years. It is much like a Ponzi scheme., since it only involves shifting paper assets, from one debtor to another. The illusion is to make them look whole.from one party to another and making them look whole.
This idea that may have actually worked well in the USA in 2008, instead of panicking and bailing out investment bankers with massive amounts of taxpayer money.
For now, the ECB simply has to buy enough time to increase the "money velocity". This is exactly what the FED is doing now. Unfortunately, it took EZ a long time to realize this. Until money velocity reaches a certain threshold, there is little growth and absolutely no risk of hyperinflation.
How to achieve growth again in the Mediterranian countries:
1. Patience from everybody, especially the higher producing Northern European countries.
2. However, none of them have the islands and beaches of Southern Europe. It will not take that long for them to capitalize on their natural assets. They know that they can not compete with the German work ethic in the hot Meditarrean sun (and no air conditioning). Maybe their sunny vacations have been priced too cheaply? Everyone realizes that Greece can never become an export producing goods company like Germany, but they can export their islands, sun and sea.... This may eventually balance their budgets and result in purchasing power parity(PPP) that James always mentions being the crux of the problem.]]> Thu, 01 Mar 2012 00:55:40 -0500 have installed sophisticated technocrats to manage their economies, rather than jaded politicians. The ECB will continue to ensure there is enough liquidity to prevent the collapse of the Euro. If it does not do this, everyone knows that there will be a chaotic dissolution of the Euro. If one can firewall Greece, this disaster may be avoided. But, it is still possible they may let Greece default.
The wellbeing of all the EZ countries (and the purpose of establishing the Euro currency), was to have a free trade zone. Germany realizes, that if Greece, Italy and Spain's sovereign debts were allowed to default, their own export machine to these countries would be much damaged. There are no other choices, than for the ECB to come to the rescue.
The European LTRO idea was a brilliant stroke!
If the ECB provides liquidity through LTRO's, it can continue to do this for many more years. It is much like a Ponzi scheme., since it only involves shifting paper assets, from one debtor to another. The illusion is to make them look whole.from one party to another and making them look whole.
This idea that may have actually worked well in the USA in 2008, instead of panicking and bailing out investment bankers with massive amounts of taxpayer money.
For now, the ECB simply has to buy enough time to increase the "money velocity". This is exactly what the FED is doing now. Unfortunately, it took EZ a long time to realize this. Until money velocity reaches a certain threshold, there is little growth and absolutely no risk of hyperinflation.
How to achieve growth again in the Mediterranian countries:
1. Patience from everybody, especially the higher producing Northern European countries.
2. However, none of them have the islands and beaches of Southern Europe. It will not take that long for them to capitalize on their natural assets. They know that they can not compete with the German work ethic in the hot Meditarrean sun (and no air conditioning). Maybe their sunny vacations have been priced too cheaply? Everyone realizes that Greece can never become an export producing goods company like Germany, but they can export their islands, sun and sea.... This may eventually balance their budgets and result in purchasing power parity(PPP) that James always mentions being the crux of the problem.]]>