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  • IPad: 25 Million Activations In December?

    The Flurry Analytics report on Android and IOS activations hasn't gotten much press. It was mentioned in Market Currents on December 29th, but looking closer may have unearthed some nuggets for AAPL investors.

    According to Flurry: 17.4 million total devices were activated on Dec 25, 2012. Also, from Dec 1 to Dec 20, the average number of devices activated was 4 million per day. Is it too aggressive to assume 4 million per day for the other 10 days in December? If so, approximately 137.4 million devices were activated in December.

    (click to enlarge)

    Now it gets interesting...

    For the 30 normal days, Flurry says smartphone activations were 4:1 versus the tablets. On Chrismas, 51% of the activations were tablets!

    (click to enlarge)

    This would imply that 8.9 million tablets were activated on Christmas Day, and 24 million tablets were activated on the other days. That would be 32.9 million tablets in the month of December.

    John Gruber retweeted this link from Andy Baio about first tweets on Christmas Day.

    (click to enlarge)

    If these numbers are correct, 78.5% of the tablets activated were iPads. So, that would be 25.8 Million iPads activated in December.

    There could be many devices sold in October and November which were activated in December, but since many analysts have predicted 25 million units for the entire quarter, this is encouraging data.

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

    Jan 03 8:59 PM | Link | 11 Comments
  • When Will The VRNG Damages Nightmare END?

    In the following post Mikehd25 does a nice job of detailing the possible clerical error here.

    There are a few key facts to be derived from this information.

    The Jury was almost certainly working with the $493M damages estimate, including $451M for Google. This estimate was provided by Dr. Becker for the period Sept 15, 2005 - Sept 2012.

    The laches ruling reduced this to Sept 15, 2011 through Sept 2012, and the jury decided that this shorter period represented 35% of the total damages.

    The jury applied 35% to the total $493M figure to get damages amounts for AOL, Gannet, Target and IAC.

    Did the jury intentionally use 3.5% for the Google damages resulting in a 15.9M settlement, or was this an error in calculation?

    If 3.5% was used intentionally, will the judge accept this amount?

    If not, can the Judge reverse this apparent miscalculation?

    I'm not a lawyer, and don't know how this kind of thing works in court.

    Disclosure: I am long VRNG.

    Tags: VRNG, GOOG
    Nov 07 3:19 PM | Link | 6 Comments
  • Will History Repeat For Apple? Turning The Calendar Back A Year.

    It has only been 6 weeks since Apple started this current correction from $705/share to $576/share. It has not been a great time to be long AAPL.

    This isn't the first AAPL correction, so I thought it might be educational to compare the current situation to Q4 FY2011 post earnings:

    • Apple met guidance for Q4 FY2011, but missed on consensus EPS and Revenue. (AAPL missed only on EPS in Q4 FY2012)
    • Apple's forward guidance for Q1 FY2012 ($9.30 and $37B ) was a disappointment. (Ditto.)
    • Apple stock price declined 14% from $422 to $363 from 10/14/2011 to 11/25/2011. (18% lower since 9/21/2012.)
    • Apple's P/E declined from 15 to 13. (From 16 P/E to 13 P/E)
    • 4 million iPhone4S phones were sold over a 3 day period (5 million iPhone5 phones over the first weekend.)
    • New iPhone4S was panned for Battery-gate and no external design changes. (New iPhone5 w/Map-gate and Scuff-gate.)
    • The Kindle Fire would possibly impact iPad market share. (Add Nexus 7, 10 and Microsoft Surface to the party.)
    • iPad2 had just been released, and it's success was not certain. (iPad Mini and iPad 4 released with minimal 'frenzy')
    • Many articles have been published predicting the certain decline of high growth for Apple due to the Law of Large Numbers, etc. (This has occurred every year since 2008, and these articles will eventually be accurate.)

    This begs the question:

    Will the launch of iPhone5, iPad 4 and iPad Mini fuel a Q1 FY2013 Revenue and Earnings blowout?


    Will the predictions of low growth finally come to pass?

    I'm betting that history repeats.

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Nov 03 12:45 AM | Link | 2 Comments
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