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fatbaboon

fatbaboon
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  • SiriusXM Finds Judge With A Sense Of Humor [View article]
    Great article!
    Jul 1, 2015. 03:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precision Castparts: Why 30+ Years Into The Adventure, I Am Still Buying [View article]
    Thomas,

    Thanks for the article.

    As someone who has followed the industry for a long time have you any thoughts on Transdigm?
    May 10, 2015. 06:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe sinks after ECB's Greece decision [View news story]
    Unfortunately history is stuffed to bursting with many level heads who have not prevailed. But fingers-crossed.
    Feb 5, 2015. 05:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: 5% Yield Is A Good Starting Point [View article]
    Well I guess they have a choice to be consistent with their theories! That currencies fluctuate a bit like red and black in roulette but even out over time.

    In which case: the last 15 years have been aberrant for the USD/EUR and we await a return to parity. Indeed, in order to "balance" the last 15 years where the euro has been "abnormally" strong we might even need a fifteen year stretch were the reverse is true, where the USD is abnormally strong and buys 1.2 - 1.6 euros. Terrible for PM.

    Perhaps they prefer a different time scale? The Sterling bought 6 USD at the beginning of the century. How many of you are are waiting for that to return. Great for PM but a tiny market.

    This platitude that currencies wiggle around arbitrarily like coin flips settling in on an average is so patently stupid and yet everywhere I look there are a bunch of people chirruping this inanity.

    What happened to the Lat Am currencies over the last 50 years? What happened to the yen. The yen was at 400 a few decades ago! Are you guys waiting for that Abe to "even out" that cross back at 400?? That would look horrendous for PM!

    I'm not saying people should be able to predict currencies. I am saying they should recognize their inability to predict currencies and recognize they haven't a clue. And saying currencies give and take in equal or roughly equal measure is just as stupid as saying anything else about the long term direction of currencies. Many currencies have weakened against the dollar substantially, consistently and over a very long time.

    I'm not saying don't buy PM. Just please stop saying that currencies jiggle around in a 50/50 manner.
    Feb 3, 2015. 09:32 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: 5% Yield Is A Good Starting Point [View article]
    The guys who sold Megapolis stakes to JP & PM! That must go down as one of the best timed sales of all time.
    Feb 3, 2015. 06:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: 5% Yield Is A Good Starting Point [View article]
    Remarkable how all three commentators so far don't really know a thing about currencies. Currencies don't always move up and down - sometimes they move for a very long time in a certain direction. To every idiot who thinks that currencies fluctuate up and down I recommend going back 100, 50 & 25 years and looking at some prevailing exchange rates. You'll find there's been some enormous moves that have not evened out.
    Feb 3, 2015. 03:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Increases Push To Activate Dormant Radios [View article]
    Why do you say this:

    "And, if that weren't enough of a complication, we can't forget that if the higher number in the paid promo category is coming from former subscribers, those former subs aren't included in churn."

    My understanding is that there is no carry over of a former subscriber, that if he sells his vehicle and starts a promo in a new vehicle then he ends up in churn.
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reynolds, Lorillard deal faces shareholder vote this week [View news story]
    reurk & sheerchanc,

    Lorillard has made returns for its shareholders of +15% per year on average for ages, why should we sell such a wonderful business for a very modest premium? Indeed look at the pe or EV/EBIT of Reynolds & Altria - they are both valued at pretty much the same (Altria) and HIGHER (Reynolds) than the company that is getting bought (Lorillard)! So clearly there is no "deal premium" being given to Lorillard.

    Lorillard shareholder will also have to pay a massive amount in CG taxes.

    This deal is simply because Kessler wants to have a nice payday & get in line behind Cameron for the CEO role at Reynolds (and obviously a bunch of new options).

    This is a horrible deal for Lorillard shareholders. I would absolutely LOVE this company to stay independent. It would make me many many multiples of the minuscule premium that Reynolds is offering.

    I have voted against.
    Jan 26, 2015. 02:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reynolds, Lorillard deal faces shareholder vote this week [View news story]
    VOTE "NO" LORILLARD SHAREHOLDERS!!!!
    Jan 26, 2015. 02:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Increases Push To Activate Dormant Radios [View article]
    Thank you for the additional explanation.

    Given that there is no split of churn into new owner churn & second owner churn and one can't "back out" second owner churn what does it mean to say that the new car funnel is not sufficient to maintain the population? Over time an increasing part of the self pay population will be made up of second owners who will of course also be churning so it seems perfectly logical (and consistent with a healthy business) for new car net adds to be insufficient.

    Pet peeve: I really wish they'd report a churn rate adjusted for car sales...how many people voluntarily give up service.
    Jan 25, 2015. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Increases Push To Activate Dormant Radios [View article]

    Rather than being thrown off by private sales or non-service lane activations isn't it more likely that you've confused second owner self pay adds with second owner self pay NET adds? And that self pay net additions from the second owner market are significantly less than 2m and that consequently your inference regarding the new owner net adds being negative is wrong?

    Jan 25, 2015. 02:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Increases Push To Activate Dormant Radios [View article]
    I'm not sure your number crunching makes sense:

    Your conclusion: "With more than 2 million self-pay additions from the second owner market, and only 1.44 million total self-pay net additions for 2014, we can see that the new car trial program would have been insufficient to grow the self-pay subscriber population."

    That would imply a conversion rate from the second owner market even higher than the new car conversion rate. 2 million converts from less than 4*1.3m second owner starts. When we've been told numerous times that second owner trials actually convert at a lower rate.

    Haven't fact checked your quotes but surely there's a mistake somewhere.
    Jan 25, 2015. 10:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Examining The Beer Industry Through Philip Van Munching's 'Beer Blast': The Quest For New Products [View article]
    Great article. Thank you.

    I've always wonder about the healthiness in rolling out line extensions. And this book is very interesting because nearly all extensions fail and yet companies feel compelled to roll them out and thanks to your article I see that it is just incase the extension is a "light"....(one could draw parallel to light cigarettes & diet sodas, both off which became massive and permanent categories).
    Jan 25, 2015. 02:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is No One Excited About Lorillard? [View article]
    Makes sense for you sunshine, you're the one doing the buying!
    Jan 19, 2015. 03:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is No One Excited About Lorillard? [View article]
    Just voted against too.

    This deal is rubbish for LO shareholders - a little premium and a ton of taxes.

    This deal is about Kessler cashing out and getting a bigger job and a bunch of new options running Reynolds.

    I'm surprised there hasn't been more outcry. I want this deal to collapse and Kessler fired for being a self-serving A**hole.
    Jan 10, 2015. 07:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
251 Comments
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