hneumann

hneumann
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  • Will USO's Recent Recovery Continue?  [View article]
    Thanks for the article

    "As I pointed out in the past, the ongoing Contango in the oil futures market is likely to keep USO underperforming the price of oil so that investors of USO for extended periods won't see a benefit from the recovery in oil."

    A question: does the same count for UWTI

    "The price of United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) continues to pick up and is currently trading at around $19 - this represents a 17.8% gain in the past month."

    This seems to contradict the sentence above
    Apr 23, 2015. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude futures chalk up sixth straight gain  [View news story]
    "It didn't take long for US production to decline".

    How long did it take for rig count to drop by 50 % ?
    Apr 18, 2015. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude futures chalk up sixth straight gain  [View news story]
    "We want the price to rise like Jefferson Airplane's White Rabbit, not like the opening riff of an 1980s Van Halen Song."

    Nice
    Apr 18, 2015. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude futures chalk up sixth straight gain  [View news story]
    See bigbenorr's comment. Also: the world is not running out of storage and world oil demand is rising and expected to have increased by about 2 mb/d in Q4. And it is more than what happens in Yemen, tension in a lot of countries in the Middle East.
    Apr 18, 2015. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. oil rig count declines by another 26 rigs  [View news story]
    " Most the rigs being shut down are ones exploring or in less profitable areas."

    Don't forget that shale well production declines rapidly after 1-2 years of production. So to increase production or stay even, they have to drill and complete wells in a high pace. Rig count dropping fast is not good. Not good for keeping oil prices low, but good for the economies of oil exporting countries. The IEA sees shale oil production rising for many more years, but that is not going to happen with oil prices (forecast) under $ 70-80/barrel.
    Apr 18, 2015. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. oil rig count declines by another 26 rigs  [View news story]
    "Iran nuclear deal adds more oil on supply side."

    Not so much. Iran is already exporting more than 1 mb/d of oil to Asia. When the sanctions are lifted they will draw down some stored crude, but ramping up oilproduction significantly takes some time, at least one year.

    "Asian markets shifting towards nuclear energy "

    Nuclear energy is for electricity production. Oil is mostly for transportation. Everywhere, from China to Europe to the U.S., people start to buy more SUV's again, air traffic is increasing. The EIA expects oil demand in Q4 to be about 2 million b/d higher than now. Combined with decreasing US shale oil output and many deepwater field projects on hold, a rise of oilprice is to be expected.
    Apr 18, 2015. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coty: Would You Pay This Multiple For Anemic Growth?  [View article]
    The CFO (and EVP) just bought 17,569 shares. A very significant amount, that normally gives a boost to the share price for a couple of days.
    Apr 17, 2015. 11:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iran Curb Down Oil's Recent Rally?  [View article]
    It can even more idiotic:

    "If oil prices were to maintain high levels, the U.S. could become (pg. 12) a net exporter by 2021."

    Sweet spots of shale oil major fields have been fracked already. Decline rates of wells are very high; after one year the production is down about 75%.
    Maintaining oilprices high won't be an easy task for the world economy.
    Apr 15, 2015. 10:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LGI Homes Begins To Crumble - Time To Bail  [View article]
    There were no more floors to go. Guidance last cc was ok, and I don't see oilprices go much lower. Tycoon has a good point with those baby boomers hitting retirement. Besides, LGI homes is becoming less dependent on Texas. Recently three directors bought shares.
    Mar 21, 2015. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LGI Homes Still Has Significant Upside Potential  [View article]
    The company seems to have the same opinion, because three directors recently bought shares
    Mar 21, 2015. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List gains after small insider buy  [View news story]
    HOD 6.86, now up < 3 %. Not bad for an insider buying that small. No position, but following effect of insider buyings on stockprices.
    Mar 19, 2015. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five9's Model Assumptions Were Wrong, And Now It Has A Real Problem  [View article]
    Maybe because Five9 was named one of the fastest growing companies on Deloitte's Technology Fast 500 (see headlines stock on finance.yahoo).
    After your post on the same day appeared (on finviz and openinsider) that the CFO bought 25,000 shares. Three directors also recently bought shares. Normally that gives a stock a (short time) boost.
    Mar 16, 2015. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hortonworks: An Impressive First Quarter As A Public Company  [View article]
    Thanks for the article with mentioning of the the 'cash burn issue'.

    I found a partly negative article (on kellblog.com) with among other points:

    "In my mind there are a two common things that go wrong in open source:

    The market is too small. In my estimation open source compresses the market size by 10-20x. So if you want to compress the $30B DBMS market 10x, you can still build several nice companies. However, if you want to compress the $1B enterprise search market by 10x, there’s not much room to build anything. That’s why there is no Red Hat of Lucene or Solr, despite their enormous popularity in search. For open source to work, you need to be in a huge market.

    People don’t renew. No matter which specific open source business model you’re using, the general play is to sell a subscription to <something> that complements your offering. It might be a hardened/certified version of the open source product. It might be additions to it that you keep proprietary forever or, in a hardcover/paperback analogy, roll back into the core open source projects with a 24 month lag. It might be simply technical support. Or, it might be “admission the club” as one open source CEO friend of mine used to say: you get to use our extensions, our support, our community, etc. But no matter what you’re selling, the key is to get renewals. The risk is that the value of your extensions decreases over time and/or customers become self-sufficient. This was another problem with Lucene. It was so good that folks just didn’t need much help and if they did, it was only for a year or so."

    Most think it will be a big market in a few years, but what to think about 'customers becoming self-sufficient', and then will not renew subscription ?
    Mar 15, 2015. 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hortonworks: A Speculative Move To Benefit From Competition In The Hadoop Market  [View article]
    author's quote:

    "I will wait until the price for Hortonworks reaches the teens and then I will make my move."

    It is very close to that now. Their CFO just bought 4,000 shares, so maybe stockprice will not reach the teens anytime soon.
    Mar 14, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At SolarCity Insider Selling Activity  [View article]
    The CFO bought 6000 shares today. That should give at least a temporary pop in share price.
    Nov 19, 2014. 09:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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