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  • Are $1400 Gold And $26 Silver About To Be Seen? [View article]
    Avi, every Sun or Mon I check SA specifically for your updates on the metals. You really give us SA readers enough information with trading ranges and I really appreciate it, especially because I didn't listen to you back in 2011 and lost my first trading account. Six figures, gone in a blink of an eye, what a learning experience. I might start investing again, especially if silver does hit the $17 range, but in the meantime I'll be content watching from the sidelines. Pay no attention to the haters, keep the info coming.

    Feb 9 09:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Silver Going To Go To New Lows? [View article]
    Avi, good article, keep them coming and don't listen to the haters nor take your time replying to them. You've made a lot of great calls with silver over the years and I'm sad to say that I've lost good coin because I was on the other side of some of them, especially in Sept of 2011.

    If I understand you correctly, you're calling for a $17-$18 range at which point do you think a bull market in the metals will kick in after that and we see the silver move higher? Maybe, not in weeks but possibly months for all of this to take place.
    Sep 19 12:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Good And Bad News For Molycorp [View article]
    How does everyone feel about MCP now that it's under $7 just a month after this article? Is it a good buying point or will it continue to decline?
    Nov 12 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UVXY: A Reverse Split Of Shares On This Volatility Product - What Does It Mean For You? [View article]
    I agree 100% X-Money, but contago has eaten these products alive. Maybe, some form of a call/put spread would work?
    Aug 30 09:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UVXY: A Reverse Split Of Shares On This Volatility Product - What Does It Mean For You? [View article]
    How about a put spread on UVXY? Sure, VIX could spike sometime but regardless of whether it does or doesn't, UVXY will continue to erode away in time bringing it back down to $5 and another reverse will be required.
    Aug 29 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Former top Fed official Donald Kohn tells WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath he expects the Fed to give "very serious consideration" to a new round of bond purchases if it determines after the Aug. 9 FOMC meeting that the recovery is really losing steam and if inflation is coming down. Kohn, Vincent Reinhart and Brian Madigan put the risk of a new recession at 20%-40%.  [View news story]
    This is exactly the news Wally street needs. The banks will end up with the cash from selling the treasuries to Ben and they'll use it to trade in the markets. No, the bears won't like this but the bulls will. Onward and upward over 13k by the spring of 2012.
    Aug 3 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P breached its 50-day moving average of 1,323 before bouncing back, but chart watchers grow increasingly concerned that support will fail - sooner rather than later. MF Global's Nick Kalivas expects the S&P to drop below 1,300 this week: "Retail stocks are near the highs and had priced very bullish news, which has not been clearly confirmed." S&P's Mark Arbeter foresees a 15-20% decline.  [View news story]
    How could anyone be certain a decline is on the way when the feds still have enough cash to arm the banks with more than enough money to keep this market up. QE2 can't end. There are plenty of other ways that the banks will get the $ needed to keep the markets at the levels the politicians need them at. After all, isn't everyone feeling the wealth effect from their 401ks increasing over the past 2 years?
    May 17 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Against Volatility by Trading the VIX [View article]
    TVIX is based off of VIX futures, not VIX itself. Also, TVIX usually won't trade upwards until a trend has been set. At this current moment, the overall trend of VIX is down. The best trade is to short it or to long XIV. But, beware that historically there are 1 or 2 VIX spikes a year that will send TVIX up against your short position. One of these times occurred after the Japan quake. If the market overall where to set up a bear trend, VIX could still remain at levels under 20 as long as there aren't fast drops.

    Think about it like this. Most people don't short stocks because of their concern for the security to keep moving to infinity. Well, VXX and TVIX and continue moving to infinity downward via reversals, but their up potential will always be limited.

    It can be difficult to hold a commodity or an option for a long period of time due to contango. Therefore, why hold VXX or TVIX since they are based off these investments? Contango will continually eat at these ETF's sending them downwared.

    If war or a flash crash were to happen, that's one of the only times to be long these ETF's.

    Just my 2 cents
    Apr 25 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Against Volatility by Trading the VIX [View article]
    I was anticipating a spike in VIX when it was under 15 so I bought TVIX at the end of last week. I was happy to see VIX up nicely on my tv screen this AM, but when I pulled up my trading platform only to see TVIX flat to negative, I was surprised and now upset becasue it appears that it's going to keep going lower. I wonder if we have a case for a law suit?
    Apr 25 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge Against Volatility by Trading the VIX [View article]
    Other than the very few times throughout the year when VIX spikes high taking VXX and TVIX with it, the only real good long term play on these ETF's is to short them.

    Just like Mattbluesky mentioned, today is 4-25-11 at 10:20 AM and VIX is up $1.02 (7%) while TVIX is trading down .10 (-.40%). Can we say that these funds don't follow the index's like advertised?
    Apr 25 10:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worries abound that the end of QE2, scheduled for June, will cause long-term rates to rise and spark a stock selloff. The "Bernanke Put" has caused asset prices to deviate so drastically from fundamentals, Cullen Roche fears that any dislocation could cause a global panic. But as long as foreign central banks are ready buyers, there may be no penalty for bad behavior.  [View news story]
    No worries. QE3 already planned. It won't be announced, but money will be injected into the system. I wouldn't be surprised if it came from the toxic asset pool of folks actually paying their interest on their mortgages. Should equal out to 600 Billion bi annually which is the current amount for QE2. Sneaky Government. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Ride the wave higher. Free money for all.
    Apr 4 08:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Traders Beware: Potential VXX Short Opportunity for Today [View article]
    Swaney, the only reason you're making money is because VIX spiked. If it doesn't continue to spike higher, VXX will erode over time. I held it last summer at $30 with your same thoughts expecting it to go to $40 at that time. I covered at $15.50 and went short right through the reverse. The same thing will happen in time. It will reverse again. Make sure to take your profits before contango eats it.
    Feb 22 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Traders Beware: Potential VXX Short Opportunity for Today [View article]
    I have been successfully shorting VXX for several months now except for the past 2 weeks. I've started scaling out of my position due to fears that a correction was coming. Trying to predict the time that a correction will occur is like trying to pick winning lottery numbers. The truth is that the market has been on a rocket ride higher since July of last year and it can continue going higher even to the dismay of the bears. As of 2-15, I started to scale back in to shorting this etf that is a born failure making it a perfect investment to short.
    Feb 15 07:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite further deterioration in Egypt over the weekend - military jets buzzed the capital and opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei claimed the departure of President Mubarak is "non-negotiable" - the Saudi stock market traded up 2% Sunday, perhaps portending a better than feared open for U.S. markets on Monday.  [View news story]
    Amscott8 brings up a great point that the markets needed a breather for a bit and Egypt was the excuse to "allow" a little blow off.

    Tack, I don't think you could have expressed your opinions better than you did.

    Yes, there are many reasons for the markets to be much lower however, with the ability of the Fed's to buy any dip that takes place and the fact that QE2 doesn't end till June which will probably be followed by QE3, there is plenty of time to drive these markets up so people "feel" better. House of cards it may be, I believe we'll get close to all time new highs before the cards fall again.
    Jan 30 01:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatility-linked ETNs like VXX and VXZ are hot, but they're born losers, Matt Hougan says. It's the rollover problem again: Contango in futures markets means VXX is "destined to lose money... It's lost about 70% in the past year; I think that will continue in 2011. Investors should avoid it at all costs."  [View news story]
    Avoid it at all costs? I agree if you're speculating on holding it for long periods, but on the other side of the coin, why not play it short? "destined to lose money... " short it. What other investment is guaranteed to go down because of the way it's set up? Tell me the name so I can short that. In the meantime, I'm short VXX heavily.
    Jan 3 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment