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orsogrigio

orsogrigio
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  • Cheap natural gas hits NYC in "game changer" for the region [View news story]
    Ok, I buy : market will go down by 50%, right ? Let's take a co, IP or LMT or KO or even BP with halved price. Will a)have DOUBLE YIELD vs now b) have the same yield c)have half yield ? (i.e., will there STILL be an economy or not?) If (a) you can play with CAPEX or anything else (that is you can take a statistic projection instead of the simple reality) but the price will spring back asap.With (b) or (c) I personally find rather funny the idea of cos keeping the dollar profit for themselves because STOCK prices are halved,but not profit. And if profits are halved the problem is NO LONGER in stocks, but in everyday life, the economy is falling down apiece,and people will be worried not by CAPEX or such, but by finding away to afford breakfast & lunch almost everyday. My personalopinion is that a lot of people no longer grasp the differencebetween equities and derivatives, quota of property and pure mathematics: it occurs me that even if deep market analysis tells you that HERE one has to open a bakery, it is still necessary to know how to bake good bread BEFORE opening the door, or,marketing or not marketing, the shop wont' last long
    Nov 9 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Impressive Recovery For Car And Truck Sales [View article]
    Very kind of you, Ryandan, thanks, I have my SSN (Servizio Sanitario Nazionale, or National Health Service) card ...). Any way, Obama or not Obama, my point is that the mechanical equivalent of one kilocalory is 4816 Joules: I'm not gone crazy (or, at least, not more than I usually am) I want simply to state that there are facts, things that you can define & measure, and if a fact and its measure doesn't fit your tastes (or theory), then tastes (or theory) has to be changed, since facts cannot . Theories (should) serve to understand facts. Understand facts : anything else, IMHO, has little use in true life
    Jun 7 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impressive Recovery For Car And Truck Sales [View article]
    Ok, gentlemen. Now for a second imagine living here in EU, where automotive sales (like ANYthing else) are dropping & dropping & dropping since a few years. We right now are about the level of half EIGHTIES (1985 and about, just to be clear)... Reading your comments I can't but reach the conclusion that you are a bit biased, in MY own view. We in Italy have almost DOUBLED unemployment in three years. Double means twofold. The chairman of Confindustria (the association of the large companies in Italy) yesterday plainly said that 15 % (fifteen per cent, more that 1/8th) of our production capacity has been lost in 24 months. Any remark ?
    Jun 7 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Energy Efficiency Tells Us About Healthcare [View article]
    Interesting, as ever. I should add that oil cost of unit product is only one part of what happened in last few years. In my opinion, the world has simply been changed: rules, ideas, ways of looking at problems of the '70s and '80s are simply no longer valid. This mith of hard currency is one of those: money, nowadays can't be but fiat money. The reason ? simply if you have an "hard money", like gold-backed something (or cucumber-backed something else, is exactly the same thing) you cannot have money enough for the needs. Money becomes a golden cage, and you can't drive economy as needed. The rules I have learnt when I was ('50 thru '70s) at school are too far from the real world now, except one : the only way to define if a cake is good or bad is to eat it, that is in the fight between theory and facts, facts always win, and theory must follow. If politicians fancy to do the reverse, economy immediately and mercilessly stings .
    Apr 30 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visualizing The Euro Area's 'Poverty Effect' [View article]
    I have to add a remark : the same (down from top and down from the start of EUR) is true for Paris (CAC index), ALMOST true for Amsterdam and, strange enough, NOT TRUE for German XETRA.
    Germany has become RICHER. So, a simple question: if with Euro in any direction you look at you discover that South nations have been severely impoverished, all others are keeping on the verge of it and ONE only is flourishing, is it ethically sure that THIS one has to force all others to pay for having become poorer ? Is there anything wrong ? Money is a matter of force, let's admit. But cover the sheer use of force with "ethical" reasons seem to me a bit too far off
    Mar 26 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Stock Picking A Losing Game? [View article]
    Interesting, but I personally see it from an opposite direction. I ask myself which will be then sectors that will let companies working in those areas make profits. Then I try to figure out which co. is the best in its own market. So the problem, really, is to look at one's life: what I need, how do I spend my money (I'm simply a consumer, after all)- As a consumer I should know if, say KO is better than PEP or than XYZ, even before screening thru CocaCola or Pepsi or whatever books & accounts- I simply avoided the .com bubble: I asked myself "how much do I have to pay to this company to justify the PE " if it comes to an impossible amount (i.e. you will never buy such a quantity of goods & services from them), I simply don't buy the stock, even if a thousand gurus line up at my door loudly stating I'm fool. Up to now it seems to work, and I started in the '80s.
    PS : I didn't became rich, of course, but I am paying my bills, like with any other reasonable work
    Mar 17 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation And Deflation Have Coexisted For 18 Years [View article]
    Sure, John, sure. But what's new is the RATE of the thing, not the thing itself. A fraction of microgram of cyanide doesn't do you any harm. A few milligrams kill you in a few seconds. The world of Bretton Woods was slow comparing to ours, You hadn't throats enough to sink DOW in a few seconds at those (happy ?) times, now you have bandwidth more than enough ....)
    Mar 2 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation And Deflation Have Coexisted For 18 Years [View article]
    Well, IMHO our mr. Grannis put together (I've to say 'as ever') some interesting facts, a good food for one's mind. The overall situation, I think, puts into light tow fact : a) we all need China b) the rules of the game are no longer the same. Technology developments have reached a point where old rules of economy do not hold any longer. I think that unemployment, and, more precisely, the rules of employment at all, must be rethought completely. There are, I deem, a lot of persons looking for, and having capability in, areas that are dying. This brings about two things : such persons are in a very difficult position in the work market, and, being the "right" persons very scarce, inflates the cost of their products. So a PC is cheap, and nursing most expensive (product = thing or activity needed in true life). One simple example: in, say, 20 years, there will be no longer taxicab drivers or airline pilots ...
    Mar 2 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Thing You Must Remember Before You Buy Another Stock [View article]
    bcmini, you are right, any rule has its exceptions. But the point is WHY you bought GE or MSFT at THAT time & price. What were the P/E, and the book values vs price ? there are around a lot of cos with rather unrealistic ratios, before buying IMHO one must have a firm understanding of what he is doing, i.e. a clear vision of what the company is going to do, how and why. And, of course, always remember that he is taking a risk. I do prefer make errors on my own, instead of following suggestions or a trends or fashions: in this way I have at least a chance of learning something, useful for my coming errors (one, I think, can make a finite number of errors in his life, whereas the causes of error are infinite ...)
    Feb 15 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Thing You Must Remember Before You Buy Another Stock [View article]
    Cliff is absolutely right for any mathematic "idea" with a price tag on, like derivatives, indices, ... IMHO the same reasoning doesn't apply when you consider the property (or better, a quota of the property) of a company that has a value because makes thing that are needed for living, and it's able to manufacture them in a sensible way, making a steady stream of profits. My point is that a share of a company is above and before any market and trend and technicality a quota of property of SOMETHING. Now the point is : am I paying too high or too low what I'm getting in exchange of my money ? So the question is understanding what I' m buying, not what the trends etc are. Clearly in this way of reasoning one will never became rich in a week, but, again IMHO only, could make a living and decent profits if he works hard enough
    Feb 13 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Virtually All 2013 Outlooks Summarized: Part 4 - Conclusions, Actions [View article]
    Well, you're the boss, and I agree with you ... but ... but, e.g. the Swiss National Bank choose to debase together with the EUR (a pegged ratio is that, isn' t it?) Will NOK or SEK or whatever have the force to forget what's a fiat money and defend their own currency ? They're small ... will they not "peg" and let STO (I was thinking to STO and NESN when I wrote my first answer) close down operations . The core issue IMHO is the size of then MX, money aggregates, in play- No one has an hard money now, in limited supply by definition, IMHO a fiat money is something like oil, when you need more, you "pump out" more, just to keep the "engine " running. It is NOT a money as in history, is something different.
    Jan 6 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Virtually All 2013 Outlooks Summarized: Part 4 - Conclusions, Actions [View article]
    Cliff, sound reasoning. But I have a question: one can buy NOK, SEK or CHF denominated companies ... but if a company is, say, in the oil or drilling or car or processed food sector (or any other, of course), in order to be a safe stock must be a big one as well, and thus is forced to follow the big markets, that is US & EEC, were customers are. So it is exposed to FED & EEC money printing in any case. Am I wrong? if so, why ?
    Jan 6 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rise Of Macro Investing [View article]
    I have a list of about 70 companies located in EUR Europe (except UK & Switzerland , I am interest in EUR and USD only for now, GBP & may be CHF later on) with a dividend yield over 3 %, a large enough trade amount as well as yearly turnover & manpower, and sound financials. Those are companies that have paid dividends since ever, and will go on again forever for the simple reason that they are making money as always did in the past. May be I am too naive, but IMHO the problem is very simple: I have to own a tiny piece of a company that is making good profits and will reasonably go on due to its activity, investments, know how and industrial plan. Such a company has not necessarily to be an American one, isn't it ? the reason ? always IMHO for a very simple one: also abroad people owns car & houses, eat dairies, turns led lamps on ... the magic thing called PPP justifies Enel SpA towards AEP,e.g. So, really I'm not surprised by Cullen's nice article
    Dec 27 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: The Advantage Of Maintaining Dividend Growth When Earnings Lag [View article]
    David, I fully agree with you. But there is a point to be stressed : the final responsibility is on the investor, nobody else can take it from his shoulders. So I do agree that almost each and any of managers is a competent, honest and reliable person. But it's just up to each investor to make his final statement, and draw his decision, and if something goes sour he has to blame only himself (except when there is fraud, but this is a different story). If one assumes that management is doing the right thing saves time & effort, but he is in no way shielded from his responsibility, not even if 11 analysts out of ... 10 swear that everything is just perfect
    Nov 3 08:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: A Frightening Outlook? [View article]
    NIce, pleasant article indeed. I have, anyhow, a disturbing idea in the back of my head "Increasing GDP Growth --> Job Creation --> Increased Consumer Spending --> Increasing GDP Growth" is still true ? can we part economy from technology ? one can (I wouldn't say easily, but almost certainly) increase the quantity of output of a company, and the quality of the products , and in the same time REDUCE its manpower. There are two main paths for that, internal organization (doing things in a wrong way is simply more expensive) and enhanced technology (an electric car could be an interesting product, but not on acid-lead batteries ...). Putting these facts together with the meaning itself of "job" is becoming more and more difficult to me. And in the same time I see a lot of companies miss the sales amount forecasts and in the same time exceed the earnings ones each quarter. I am getting the idea that the crisis made managements rethink a lot of things, and so come out with better products and/or cheaper prices with cost reduction as well. I'm a bit puzzled ... any help ?
    Nov 1 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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