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  • Greece... [View article]
    marpy, the point is right here : what will happen after Grexit. As far as the standard of living is concerned, Greece has lost a sharp 30% (yes, almost 1/3) of its GDP from 2009, the standard of living has ALREADY dropped, and, within € I actually do not see how they can gain anything back, so what do they risk more. There MUST be a devaluation, either of € or of New Drachma, debits have to be somehow wiped off. Now, there are two ways open for Greece, keep € or switch to ND. The former has been a blood bath. I'd try the other, just in case. As far as the Russian card, Russian 2014 GDP has been rougly 6.5% of US one, so it's hardly feasible. I'm, to sum up, not so sure that € will be their best option, without a dramatic change in the rules governing it (the 3% barrier should go up at least twice). Practically this is a devaluation of € further than 1:1 ratio with USD.
    Jun 26, 2015. 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece... [View article]
    Greece, in itself, doesn't mean so much. But, if they will be cut off from ELA and sent default they will immediately miss the rotating credit that keeps them alive (may happen between Sat. and Mon. next week, so ...). In this case there is only one way out, the New Drachma, with an implicit haircut of outstanding debts of, say 60 % up (ND will be at 1 against € at 8:00 AM local time on the 'day after', 0.4 within few hours/days...). This would make really no nuisance to Germany etc (except for the haircut, it means about 70 B€ for Germany, and 33 B€ for Italy, a bit more for France, and a bit less for Spain) provided that Greece falls apiece, eats out of grass, becomes an unthinkable nightmare with people on the knife point for a loaf of bread (kidding, but not so much). If, on the contrary, with the ND they a)survive and thus, soon, b)flourish, it will be an evident proof that € is a stone on neck of Southern Countries while they are painfully swimming , and already exhausted (look at GDPs history). What will follow ? New Lira, New Peseta and so on. End of the € game (or, more likely, a quite geographically smaller N€, Northern €, but even stronger currency). In 2012 they should have been working to split € in N€ and S€ almost painlessly, there was time, now it's too late. One could ask : why did they such a flawed thing as the € ? my personal opinion is the 'leaders' of Southern Countries thought that was a practical way to load their internal problems on Europe's shoulders, and let themselves live happy. No great political view, no strategy, just a way to hide dust below carpet. I wouldn't think it has been a sensible move.
    Jun 26, 2015. 06:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • International Securities For A Diversified Income Portfolio [View article]
    please, when commenting a post, read all the post
    Sep 28, 2014. 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • International Securities For A Diversified Income Portfolio [View article]
    Just for your info, when you write "Many foreign cos ..." you should write simply "Foreign companies ..." since the RULE outside US is 1 dividend per year, local ccy, fixed percentage of net earnings (or a range). Just very few come closer to US habits. There are many large cos that use to have a dividend policy with 2 payments, one in advance, and one final. In any case you are getting the definite amounts with the 'agenda' of the general meeting. Of course advance payment+final one come to the percentage of earnings as per the dividend rules of each company. General meetings are normally held in April-May (Siemens holds it in January). Hope this helps
    Sep 25, 2014. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terra Power And NRG Yield: What Is The Value Of Energy When Everyone Can Produce It? [View article]
    I haven't read all of your work about. I am sure you're perfectly right in that work.In any case, my own opinion is that once solar generation reaches 10 to 20 % of available power makes grid balance very difficult, and forces a huge quantity of generating power to be kept on stand-by, that is a huge cost, added and fully useless. Until power generation via solar is in a marginal size could be a profit for some. imho, but once it comes to sizable amount ends up by imposing a HUGE, unnecessary cost on everybody.Technology needed for economical solar power generation, e.g. panels stations in the space etc, is so far away that I hope fusion reactors will come first and solve the matter for good. To sum up, imho again, a power source that is not 24/7 by definition is almost useless for general operation (service level again). Sorry for being rough
    Jul 10, 2014. 04:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Terra Power And NRG Yield: What Is The Value Of Energy When Everyone Can Produce It? [View article]
    I didn't succeed in going further that the first third of the article. Why ? simply because the words 'service level' are fully absent. But you can't discuss energy generation and distribution without taking in the first row WHY energy is needed and THUS which service level MUST be warranted. Anyhow, putting on a panel system with batteries etc is simply NOT enough to become grid free, even if one 'generate' ten times his needs. I do not want to quell solar enthusiasms down, I simply have to mention that physics with its laws is still sitting there ...
    Jul 10, 2014. 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Do Investors Keep Buying 'Actively' Managed Funds? [View article]
    Cullen (I give myself the pleasure of calling you by your first name, I'm reading you since such a long time that I 'feel' to know you) those are GREAT words " We're all active managers of our own accounts ". It all stands here. Almost all, there is one more point when you discuss "... we are "investors" on secondary markets who can strike it rich if we just buy the right stocks and bonds..." My experience is exactly what you portray : if you are 'rich' and WORK your way in the secondary market, you can have a decent bread & butter coming. If you want to get rich there ... poor guy. A most pleasurable article, compliments!
    Jun 13, 2014. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap natural gas hits NYC in "game changer" for the region [View news story]
    Ok, I buy : market will go down by 50%, right ? Let's take a co, IP or LMT or KO or even BP with halved price. Will a)have DOUBLE YIELD vs now b) have the same yield c)have half yield ? (i.e., will there STILL be an economy or not?) If (a) you can play with CAPEX or anything else (that is you can take a statistic projection instead of the simple reality) but the price will spring back asap.With (b) or (c) I personally find rather funny the idea of cos keeping the dollar profit for themselves because STOCK prices are halved,but not profit. And if profits are halved the problem is NO LONGER in stocks, but in everyday life, the economy is falling down apiece,and people will be worried not by CAPEX or such, but by finding away to afford breakfast & lunch almost everyday. My personalopinion is that a lot of people no longer grasp the differencebetween equities and derivatives, quota of property and pure mathematics: it occurs me that even if deep market analysis tells you that HERE one has to open a bakery, it is still necessary to know how to bake good bread BEFORE opening the door, or,marketing or not marketing, the shop wont' last long
    Nov 9, 2013. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Impressive Recovery For Car And Truck Sales [View article]
    Very kind of you, Ryandan, thanks, I have my SSN (Servizio Sanitario Nazionale, or National Health Service) card ...). Any way, Obama or not Obama, my point is that the mechanical equivalent of one kilocalory is 4816 Joules: I'm not gone crazy (or, at least, not more than I usually am) I want simply to state that there are facts, things that you can define & measure, and if a fact and its measure doesn't fit your tastes (or theory), then tastes (or theory) has to be changed, since facts cannot . Theories (should) serve to understand facts. Understand facts : anything else, IMHO, has little use in true life
    Jun 7, 2013. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impressive Recovery For Car And Truck Sales [View article]
    Ok, gentlemen. Now for a second imagine living here in EU, where automotive sales (like ANYthing else) are dropping & dropping & dropping since a few years. We right now are about the level of half EIGHTIES (1985 and about, just to be clear)... Reading your comments I can't but reach the conclusion that you are a bit biased, in MY own view. We in Italy have almost DOUBLED unemployment in three years. Double means twofold. The chairman of Confindustria (the association of the large companies in Italy) yesterday plainly said that 15 % (fifteen per cent, more that 1/8th) of our production capacity has been lost in 24 months. Any remark ?
    Jun 7, 2013. 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Energy Efficiency Tells Us About Healthcare [View article]
    Interesting, as ever. I should add that oil cost of unit product is only one part of what happened in last few years. In my opinion, the world has simply been changed: rules, ideas, ways of looking at problems of the '70s and '80s are simply no longer valid. This mith of hard currency is one of those: money, nowadays can't be but fiat money. The reason ? simply if you have an "hard money", like gold-backed something (or cucumber-backed something else, is exactly the same thing) you cannot have money enough for the needs. Money becomes a golden cage, and you can't drive economy as needed. The rules I have learnt when I was ('50 thru '70s) at school are too far from the real world now, except one : the only way to define if a cake is good or bad is to eat it, that is in the fight between theory and facts, facts always win, and theory must follow. If politicians fancy to do the reverse, economy immediately and mercilessly stings .
    Apr 30, 2013. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visualizing The Euro Area's 'Poverty Effect' [View article]
    I have to add a remark : the same (down from top and down from the start of EUR) is true for Paris (CAC index), ALMOST true for Amsterdam and, strange enough, NOT TRUE for German XETRA.
    Germany has become RICHER. So, a simple question: if with Euro in any direction you look at you discover that South nations have been severely impoverished, all others are keeping on the verge of it and ONE only is flourishing, is it ethically sure that THIS one has to force all others to pay for having become poorer ? Is there anything wrong ? Money is a matter of force, let's admit. But cover the sheer use of force with "ethical" reasons seem to me a bit too far off
    Mar 26, 2013. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Stock Picking A Losing Game? [View article]
    Interesting, but I personally see it from an opposite direction. I ask myself which will be then sectors that will let companies working in those areas make profits. Then I try to figure out which co. is the best in its own market. So the problem, really, is to look at one's life: what I need, how do I spend my money (I'm simply a consumer, after all)- As a consumer I should know if, say KO is better than PEP or than XYZ, even before screening thru CocaCola or Pepsi or whatever books & accounts- I simply avoided the .com bubble: I asked myself "how much do I have to pay to this company to justify the PE " if it comes to an impossible amount (i.e. you will never buy such a quantity of goods & services from them), I simply don't buy the stock, even if a thousand gurus line up at my door loudly stating I'm fool. Up to now it seems to work, and I started in the '80s.
    PS : I didn't became rich, of course, but I am paying my bills, like with any other reasonable work
    Mar 17, 2013. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation And Deflation Have Coexisted For 18 Years [View article]
    Sure, John, sure. But what's new is the RATE of the thing, not the thing itself. A fraction of microgram of cyanide doesn't do you any harm. A few milligrams kill you in a few seconds. The world of Bretton Woods was slow comparing to ours, You hadn't throats enough to sink DOW in a few seconds at those (happy ?) times, now you have bandwidth more than enough ....)
    Mar 2, 2013. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflation And Deflation Have Coexisted For 18 Years [View article]
    Well, IMHO our mr. Grannis put together (I've to say 'as ever') some interesting facts, a good food for one's mind. The overall situation, I think, puts into light tow fact : a) we all need China b) the rules of the game are no longer the same. Technology developments have reached a point where old rules of economy do not hold any longer. I think that unemployment, and, more precisely, the rules of employment at all, must be rethought completely. There are, I deem, a lot of persons looking for, and having capability in, areas that are dying. This brings about two things : such persons are in a very difficult position in the work market, and, being the "right" persons very scarce, inflates the cost of their products. So a PC is cheap, and nursing most expensive (product = thing or activity needed in true life). One simple example: in, say, 20 years, there will be no longer taxicab drivers or airline pilots ...
    Mar 2, 2013. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment