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AnLe41

AnLe41
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  • Zillow beats by $0.12, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Good analysis. I listened to the the conference call and looked through the earnings report in more detail. The main issue that is pushing the extended hours price down is likely concerns about the 2014 revenue growth rate, and the expense at which it comes.
    I'm positive long term on Zillow, and have been in the stock since fall 2012. However, I actually sold all of it today at $91 (@ a 102% gain), as I have seen the stock tank so many times after earnings. It will be interesting to see how the price will react in regular trading tomorrow. I will consider a new position in the coming days.
    Feb 12 10:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow beats by $0.12, beats on revenue [View news story]
    OK, thanks. I missed that part. A lower revenue guidance (especially lower than low end analyst expectations) is a sure way to put pressure on the stock price.
    Feb 12 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow beats by $0.12, beats on revenue [View news story]
    I am just watching the interview with Zillow's CEO at The Street. It's quite amazing that The Street is also reporting a $0.12 beat for EPS by looking at the non-GAAP EPS actuals and comparing that to the estimates.

    I am getting really confused, but when you read the compilations of Wall St. and Estimize consensus expectations ($0.07 and $0.08 respectively), all their historical numbers for consensus estimates and actuals for each of the previous quarters, they all refer to the GAAP EPS.

    I continue to believe that Wall St. and Estimize actually were looking at the GAAP numbers in their estimates, i.e. not a beat. If you think about it, if it truly would have been a beat by $0.12 (circa 3 times the "expected" level), the stock price would surely have gapped up big time when the results came out, as it would have been a beat on both Revs and EPS. Can't see any other explanation why the stock is otherwise chopping around at $89 now.
    Feb 12 05:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow beats by $0.12, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Probably because they struggled to hit EPS estimate (see my clarification above). The target EPS was the GAAP. Maybe the conference call that just started will drive the stock price upwards. Revenue growth was better than expected.
    Feb 12 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow beats by $0.12, beats on revenue [View news story]
    You are right, the GAAP EPS was $0.07 and $0.06 respectively, which was the measure where Wall St consensus expectation was $0.07 and Estimize had an expectation of $0.08.

    The non-GAAP EPS was $0.20 and $0.19 respectively, but non-GAAP numbers were never referred to in the expected EPS numbers.

    Bottom line: There was no beat at all on EPS, but some on revenue vs. expectations. The $0.12 beat above is an apples vs. pears comparison.
    Feb 12 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon (AMZN) now +9.3% AH in spite of its Q4 miss and light Q1 guidance. The earnings call (live blog) featured pointed questions about slowing paid unit growth (32% Y/Y vs 39% in Q3), but also positive comments about gross margin, which rose 340 bps Y/Y 24.1% (up from Q3's 180 bps increase). The fact 3rd-party sales accounted for 39% of paid units (up from 36% a year ago) helped, as did a 67% Y/Y increase in "Other" North American revenue (dominated by AWS) to $769M. Active customer accounts surpassed 200M (up from Q3's 188M). EBAY +0.7%[View news story]
    This latest miss of WS estimates with declining earnings and EPS will rapidly push the stock price above the $300 resistance level, which will trigger a strong buy signal and another rally that could potentially get the stock to test the $350 level before end of Feb. Both institutional and retail investors will run over each other to get in. Time to buy naked weekly calls to cash in big time.
    Jan 29 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The eBay Earnings Announcement [View article]
    How much remaining value in the short Jan options is enough in your judgement, to motivate keeping the position until Friday to benefit from additional Theta decay? As opposed to closing the position today, to avoid the risk of a stock price reversal (could be the general market, irrespective of EBAY's current direction)?

    It seems likely that the IV for the Jan options should fall substantially now post earnings. That, + some Theta, should increase the value of the position already today.
    Jan 17 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The eBay Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Thanks. Good comment, and you are absolutely right. The risk profile of this trade is vastly rouhger than the P/L graph may allude to, and there is no way that a trade like this should be done with the expectation of a 100% gain. I would be happy with something slightly above 50%. We will see tomorrow where it stands.

    Entering this trade yesterday, and the earnings released after market today, gave a 26% gain to my position just before market close (net commissions) thanks to Theta on the shorts. It would have been an OK gain for a 24 hr position, and avoiding the risk of the actual earnings and following stock reaction. I was tempted to take that profit after I read your comment, but it was not the objective of this trade. Maybe I will regret it tomorrow... Hopefully not.
    Jan 16 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The eBay Earnings Announcement [View article]
    They did beat, but not in any blowout fashion. However, management's comments on its business and Mobile payments in particular, seems to push the stock in the right direction: $53.85 (+1.8%) in current after hours trading.

    Let's hope the earnings call goes well, and leaves for a good market opening tomorrow.
    Jan 16 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The eBay Earnings Announcement [View article]
    I entered the same position, more or less, yesterday (15 Jan) too, but added more put calendar spreads at the lower end. This will give me some additional protection to remain on the positive, if the stock falls after earnings and before expiration of the short options this Friday. Thereby my total position cost is higher than Terry's, and I will have a slightly lower return in the (hopeful) case that the trade turns out to be profitable after earnings.
    Jan 16 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shanghai Evening News, the Chinese paper that yesterday published an interview with Apple (AAPL) marketing chief Phil Schiller, has revised the interview's text to remove remarks about how a cheap iPhone "will never be the future of Apple's products." Now, Schiller is simply quoted as saying Apple will "never blindly pursue market share," and is focused on making "the best products." That leaves some leeway for WSJ/Bloomberg reports about a low-cost iPhone project to pan out. [View news story]
    Maybe the journalist was contacted by the team within Google that manages payments to selected bloggers? Google sure must have felt that the WSJ story was far too good to let it be destroyed by the initial version of the "Shanghai Evening News" interview.

    Just a thought. How much are journalists/editors making in China, and how much would it take to get a few words retyped?
    Jan 12 04:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple may get a boost from Dialog Semiconductor - some of whose products are found in iDevices - raising its Q4 revenue guidance to $268M from $215M-$235M thanks to a late surge in the tablet and smartphone markets. Dialog's strength looks to have been driven by strong demand for the iPhone5 and iPad Mini, says Deutsche. Dialog +5.2% in Europe, AAPL +0.7% premarket. [View news story]
    It will take a heck lot more to move AAPL upwards. Jan 2013 options expiration needs to occur first. Then a massive blowout qtr a few days later may break the charts trends. Until then, it's all in the technical trading signals, and supplier indications of better fundamentals is just a fart in space in current sentiment.
    Jan 10 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Cheaper iPhone Would Confirm A Lack Of Innovation And Declining Margins At Apple [View article]
    Spot on. Initially, the market applauded Amazon for introducing the low-priced Kindle Fire HD tablets, at such a low price that it will lose money on every device sold. Now that Amazon hasn't been selling so many of these devices as the market had expected, the stock price went up as the lower sales numbers will improve margins!

    Amazon just happens to be a stock-market darling right now and can't do anything wrong to investors and analysts. A P/E above 1,500 and rising is no one's worry for now. I for one would certainly not dare to put my money there....
    Jan 9 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Accurate Year-Over-Year Comparisons Critical To Understanding Apple's Q1 FY13 Earnings Release [View article]
    Thanks Anthony for a well-structured article and reminder of the differences between Q1 FY12 and Q1 FY13, which makes like-for-like comparisons a tad more complicated for the average person.

    In spite of your article, Peter Oppenheimer's remarks in the previous earnings call, rest assured that most pundits, CNBC and other media will ignore the pro-forma adjustment and jump straight to the non-adjusted numbers when drawing up their headlines. Unless there is a shift in mainstream media sentiment towards AAPL's future prospects (right now at a record low), every datapoint will be used to underpin the most negative view possible.

    I hope more people will echo the same pro-forma message up to and immediately after the earnings release. It will surely be one of the most anticipated and interesting earnings releases in the last couple of years.
    Jan 9 09:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There An Apple Disconnect? [View article]
    happydaysarecoiming most likely holds bearish option positions and feel the need to regurgitate the same negative nonsense empty opinion in every article that is contrarian to the current pricing pressure that has pestered AAPL's stock price, at least until he has closed those positions.
    Jan 9 06:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
42 Comments
66 Likes