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AnLe41

AnLe41
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  • Amazon: Yes, Things Can Get Much Worse [View article]
    I guess this has been in the cards for years and should have been obvious to most investors a long time ago. However, JB has been amazingly capable to sell verbal garbage to the investment community in the lack of any earnings. The stock market has trusted JB's promises of future greats at face value, and has been willing to push the stock price beyond all reasonable valuation metrics.

    After the Fire Phone debacle and reality catching up in the last Q's P&L, JB's reality distortion field was not enough to satisfy even the most loyal AMZN investors. Now that the bubble has burst, I would stay away from the stock until it has retraced further. I wouldn't put a dime back in AMZN until it is back around $250.
    Oct 27 01:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Proves Again It's Number One [View article]
    Thanks Bill for a great summary and follow-up to your earnings preview. It sure was a great qtr for Apple and I am very happy that I held on to my long position over this report. Will be interesting to see where the stock will move in the coming months (before they report fiscal Q1 in Jan). Most likely, the usual gang of AAPL analysts will issue updates of their price targets and upgrade their recommendations, which should suffice to lift the stock price 10-15% by year-end - unless the rest of the market is going south.
    Oct 21 01:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Best Interests Re: GT Advanced Technologies [View article]
    I have read in several places that Apple is not at all dependent on GTAT being the supplier of the sapphire for the  watch or other screens in the long run. As suggested by other commentators, Apple already owns the most relevant IP for their own needs and there are multiple suppliers out there who can supply sapphire in the place of GTAT, if the Ch 11 / restructuring of GTAT doesn't work out satisfactory or convincing to Apple. I don't think Apple feels any pressure to take over GTAT.
    Oct 7 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Blair's Analysis Of Apple's 10 Million First Weekend Sales Is Way Off Base [View article]
    @Barantos01: Great that you finally called Apple's bluff and their consistently false reporting of sales numbers. You should tip the FBI. This thing will be bigger than the Madoff scandal when it is revealed. All thanks to your insights!
    /s
    Sep 29 04:45 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do The Math: Apple's Fiscal 2015 EPS To Rise (At Least) 25% [View article]
    Thanks for a very interesting article, not the least the easy-to-follow reasoning and the assumption tables with multiple sensitivity scenarios. Apple Watch sales figures are really tricky to have a view on, but it is also clear that they don't need to sell that many in 2015, to make 2015 a great year anyway, thanks to the iPhone juggernaut, Mac market share rising etc. I believe your predictions of a strong 2015 EPS growth will be close to actual results.

    However, I'm not so sure that the market will expand AAPL's P/E from today's levels up to the 20 mark, but even keeping today's P/E will generate a nice stock price appreciation.
    Sep 24 05:46 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time For The Next Stage [View article]
    I wouldn't be too worried over the reports of the instances of the plus model being bent in the back pocket of people's tight pants. If you search more carefully, you'll find older reports dating back to iPhone 5 also being bent when you put your full weight on them, but also large screen android phones. Some of these bending reports likely originate from people who do everything in their power to bend their phone, as they make an ad-revenue living from blogging these things. These phones will continue to sell like hot cakes.

    Personally, I believe that outside Asian markets, the popularity of the 6 vs. the 6+ will over time shift in favour of the 6 (at launch some statistics showed that 57% of customers wanted to get the 6+). There will be so many situations where the 6+ will simply be too big to be convenient, in spite of how thin it is.
    Sep 24 02:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 First Weekend Sales Record: What It Means For Investors [View article]
    It's actually great that it is up at all, as the markets in general are dropping today, with Nasdaq down circa 1% at 10:50 EDT. This is primarily due to general concerns after China's finance minister said that the China government may not increase financial stimulus to counter a possible slowdown in the Chinese economy. AAPL takes a pro-rated hit, like any other stock.

    I am also long AAPL, but don't care about today's move. I remain confident that AAPL will perform really well the coming 3-9 months.
    Sep 22 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Apple Launch Disappointed [View article]
    The fact that AAPL stock price dropped back at the end of the trading day yesterday also need to be seen against the general drop in all the indexes and major stocks that occurred yesterday. AAPL normally drops immediately after the company's launch events, but that has little correlation with the stock price in the following months. With yesterday's general decline in the latter part of the session, it's impossible to isolate how much of AAPL's drop back was just the overall market correction pressure and how much was the "sell the news".

    A surprise yesterday (against all rumours) was that the 5.5" model will launch in parallel with the 4.7", which could have a huge positive impact on the numbers of this qtr and the holiday quarter. Don't expect too much of the launch weekend sales numbers though, as the initial launch weekend only happens in a limited number of countries (China excluded). Limiting the number of countries is probably an indicator that launch supplies will be constrained and there will be a huge backlog following. Not a major issue for AAPL over the coming quarters, but will draw negative blogger headlines, including bearish authors here on SA.
    Sep 10 04:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Innovation Lies At The Heart Of Apple - Doesn't It? [View article]
    Great idea! Just close your short position MB, lick the wounds, and you shall find that there are people out there that appreciate grit put at work for good purposes rather than crappy investment advice!
    Sep 8 11:03 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D printing stocks skyrocket as tech short-squeeze continues [View news story]
    All investors that buy existing shares in the stock market are speculating for a capital gain, which can be for shorter or longer term. It doesn't matter if you buy existing shares of a company and sit on them for 10 years - you don't provide any additional capital to develop the company.

    The only way you would contribute capital to a company's growth, is if you participate in a capital increase, i.e. a new share issue (or a debt instrument for that matter). I therefore don't see any moral difference between my long term holdings (e.g. in AAPL, BIDU, MKL etc) vs. shorter term speculative plays. Neither is it less moral to short a stock, just a different game where you bet on the imminent devaluation of a stock, and you should then also be aware of the underlying risks, as a shorter can more easily run his account on a margin (less assets in the account than it would cost to fill the short position), and can thus be forced to close the position by a margin call.

    No moral, just the rules of the game.

    I was hit earlier this winter by a long position in HLF, where the shorts did win at that time. Good for them.
    Jul 2 08:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D printing stocks skyrocket as tech short-squeeze continues [View news story]
    I owe you a big thanks, Bill. I read your articles on the potential short squeeze as input to my decision to buy DDD when the stock bottomed out just below $50. Worked out faster than I had imagined.
    Jul 2 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D printing stocks skyrocket as tech short-squeeze continues [View news story]
    It's just the way the markets work. Those shorting (should) know the risks they are taking, and those trying to benefit from short squeezes in stocks that are heavily shorted also know what they are doing. I just realized a 35% gain today, after buying DDD when it dipped under $50 a few weeks ago. My thesis was that short gamblers would jump on board DDD again far too early, and then be short squeezed on any uptick in the market.

    DDD may squeeze higher in the next couple of days, considering that it would take more than 10 days of average trading volume for all shorts to cover their positions, but today's price spike was too tempting to resist and capture the gain. Short squeezes are the best!
    Jul 1 01:03 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Life In Splitsville: Apple Will Probably Break Above $100 This Week [View article]
    The latest weeks' AAPL price run-up has likely already been driven by the forthcoming split, so a major portion of the emotional bias effect of the split is already priced in as of the market close on Friday. But I agree with the author that there may be some more to go over the next days/weeks. As a bet, I hold call options that expire in July, now already pretty deep in-the-money, thanks to the last weeks' rally.

    Medium term, I believe AAPL is set to go higher (beyond $100/share), thanks to likely new-product launches early autumn and bigger-than-most-realise changes in OS X Yosemite and iOS8.
    Jun 9 01:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Stock Split: 2 Theories [View article]
    To remedy that, CBOE actually introduced special "mini" options last year for high-priced & high-volume stocks like AAPL, GOOG and a few others, where each option only had 10 underlying shares. As a result, these mini options cost 1/10 the price of the normal options. I actually hold one of these AAPL mini options right now (July expiration).

    After the split, I guess the mini options are not needed anymore, as the standard options will be 1/7 the previous price. When the mini options disappear, it will actually be more expensive to buy options in AAPL, as 1/7 is 42.9% higher than 1/10.
    Jun 8 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Stock Split: 2 Theories [View article]
    Thanks, great idea! I will suggest that to him.

    Having seen his previous efforts to write iOS apps using Objective-C, I am really super-impressed with what Apple has achieved with its new Swift language.

    I don't think the investment community has yet realised that this innovation, introduced less than a week ago at the WWDC, may have a tremendously positive influence on Apple in the coming years. Writing programs and apps and bug-testing them to be stable and reasonably error free, is a very tedious and time consuming work. With Swift, maybe Apple has launched a disruptive change against its main competitors?

    Repeat conclusion - owning AAPL drives curiosity towards its products. Learning more deeply about the eco system provides an additional layer of insight into the future prospects of the AAPL investment. Win win again.
    Jun 7 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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