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  • Apple: A Pullback To Strongly Consider [View article]
    I believe AAPL will break new highs during this qtr and/or when it reports the same in late January, as this is likely going to be a blow-out period.

    I added some shares during Friday's lows just before close, whilst realising that AAPL could still see some additional pullback the coming weeks, before starting to climb again. I think any such pullbacks will primarily be driven by overall market movements and concerns (oil, China, Russia etc as A. Hopf lists above) and am therefore not so concerned about AAPL's own ability to eventually defend a higher valuation.
    Dec 15, 2014. 03:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Are We Approaching The Fiscal Q1 Danger Zone? [View article]
    Sure, I am also long in AAPL for reasons beyond the results of this fiscal Q1, but Bill's article is entirely about the short-term risks of whether the company will be cornered into "disappointing" Wall Street as consensus estimates just continue to be revised upwards. For those that are short-term traders, it is always good to reflect on these aspects.

    I am normally not a fan of J. Cramer, but think he has made a great point recently when he said: "Investors Need to Own Apple, Not Trade It".
    Dec 10, 2014. 03:02 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Willing To Do Almost Anything, Except Profit? [View article]
    I totally agree with your comments Jaymac and the key points of the article. From a rationale point of view, Amazon would be a perfect shorting candidate. However, I'm flabbergasted at how undiscerning the market has been for years regarding Amazon's total inability to make any profits and the lack of that leading to a correction of its inflated valuation.

    Will the market remain as forgiving forever? I'm convinced that in the next 12-24 months, growing concerns on the absence of profits will start a major valuation correction.
    Dec 10, 2014. 02:40 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Wrong With Google? [View article]
    Great and relevant article Bill, thanks for providing.

    I was for a long time a holder of Google stock and also did a fair amount of trading with Google options. However, in 2013 I sold all my Google shares and have also stopped options trading on Google, as I started to have a growing concern of the company's ability to meet its earnings expectation, which is exactly what has happened over several quarters (as you point out in your article).

    Google has for years enjoyed a higher P/E multiple than its actual earnings growth has motivated, as the market and media has attributed a lot of future optimism around Google's areas of experimentalism and beta projects (Google Glass, driver-less cars etc) as well as the large unit share of Android.

    However, as Google has so far never managed to monetize any new revenue stream beyond web and mobile advertising in a meaningful way, it is inevitable that investors start to question the earnings growth (which has failed to meet expectations for too long now). It's one thing to be very open about all the fantastic projects that are being explored in their labs and be willing to move a lot of beta products into the market (totally opposite approach than Apple), but it's really getting overdue to "show me the money".

    I think those long in Google should be grateful that it hasn't lost value during the period you describe, rather than too upset that it hasn't rallied like many other names. With the poor and disappointing earnings reports, it could just as well have dropped 10-15% (or more).
    Dec 4, 2014. 12:29 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax: Explaining A Missed Point [View article]
    I agree 100%!
    Nov 18, 2014. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax: Explaining A Missed Point [View article]
    Bill, I think both of your articles are well-written and it's easy to understand the point you were making regarding HIMX stock price risks. However, when your point suggests that the stock may be subject to further risk, those that remain long in the stock will by definition attack you.

    At the end of the day, HIMX may go up, or down, but it's always good to widen the perspective on factors that may have (historically) influenced the price movements (which I think you did very well), and from there ponder what factors that may affect it going forward.

    Keep up the good work!
    Nov 18, 2014. 12:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Yes, Things Can Get Much Worse [View article]
    I guess this has been in the cards for years and should have been obvious to most investors a long time ago. However, JB has been amazingly capable to sell verbal garbage to the investment community in the lack of any earnings. The stock market has trusted JB's promises of future greats at face value, and has been willing to push the stock price beyond all reasonable valuation metrics.

    After the Fire Phone debacle and reality catching up in the last Q's P&L, JB's reality distortion field was not enough to satisfy even the most loyal AMZN investors. Now that the bubble has burst, I would stay away from the stock until it has retraced further. I wouldn't put a dime back in AMZN until it is back around $250.
    Oct 27, 2014. 01:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Proves Again It's Number One [View article]
    Thanks Bill for a great summary and follow-up to your earnings preview. It sure was a great qtr for Apple and I am very happy that I held on to my long position over this report. Will be interesting to see where the stock will move in the coming months (before they report fiscal Q1 in Jan). Most likely, the usual gang of AAPL analysts will issue updates of their price targets and upgrade their recommendations, which should suffice to lift the stock price 10-15% by year-end - unless the rest of the market is going south.
    Oct 21, 2014. 01:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Best Interests Re: GT Advanced Technologies [View article]
    I have read in several places that Apple is not at all dependent on GTAT being the supplier of the sapphire for the  watch or other screens in the long run. As suggested by other commentators, Apple already owns the most relevant IP for their own needs and there are multiple suppliers out there who can supply sapphire in the place of GTAT, if the Ch 11 / restructuring of GTAT doesn't work out satisfactory or convincing to Apple. I don't think Apple feels any pressure to take over GTAT.
    Oct 7, 2014. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Blair's Analysis Of Apple's 10 Million First Weekend Sales Is Way Off Base [View article]
    @Barantos01: Great that you finally called Apple's bluff and their consistently false reporting of sales numbers. You should tip the FBI. This thing will be bigger than the Madoff scandal when it is revealed. All thanks to your insights!
    Sep 29, 2014. 04:45 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do The Math: Apple's Fiscal 2015 EPS To Rise (At Least) 25% [View article]
    Thanks for a very interesting article, not the least the easy-to-follow reasoning and the assumption tables with multiple sensitivity scenarios. Apple Watch sales figures are really tricky to have a view on, but it is also clear that they don't need to sell that many in 2015, to make 2015 a great year anyway, thanks to the iPhone juggernaut, Mac market share rising etc. I believe your predictions of a strong 2015 EPS growth will be close to actual results.

    However, I'm not so sure that the market will expand AAPL's P/E from today's levels up to the 20 mark, but even keeping today's P/E will generate a nice stock price appreciation.
    Sep 24, 2014. 05:46 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time For The Next Stage [View article]
    I wouldn't be too worried over the reports of the instances of the plus model being bent in the back pocket of people's tight pants. If you search more carefully, you'll find older reports dating back to iPhone 5 also being bent when you put your full weight on them, but also large screen android phones. Some of these bending reports likely originate from people who do everything in their power to bend their phone, as they make an ad-revenue living from blogging these things. These phones will continue to sell like hot cakes.

    Personally, I believe that outside Asian markets, the popularity of the 6 vs. the 6+ will over time shift in favour of the 6 (at launch some statistics showed that 57% of customers wanted to get the 6+). There will be so many situations where the 6+ will simply be too big to be convenient, in spite of how thin it is.
    Sep 24, 2014. 02:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 6 First Weekend Sales Record: What It Means For Investors [View article]
    It's actually great that it is up at all, as the markets in general are dropping today, with Nasdaq down circa 1% at 10:50 EDT. This is primarily due to general concerns after China's finance minister said that the China government may not increase financial stimulus to counter a possible slowdown in the Chinese economy. AAPL takes a pro-rated hit, like any other stock.

    I am also long AAPL, but don't care about today's move. I remain confident that AAPL will perform really well the coming 3-9 months.
    Sep 22, 2014. 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Apple Launch Disappointed [View article]
    The fact that AAPL stock price dropped back at the end of the trading day yesterday also need to be seen against the general drop in all the indexes and major stocks that occurred yesterday. AAPL normally drops immediately after the company's launch events, but that has little correlation with the stock price in the following months. With yesterday's general decline in the latter part of the session, it's impossible to isolate how much of AAPL's drop back was just the overall market correction pressure and how much was the "sell the news".

    A surprise yesterday (against all rumours) was that the 5.5" model will launch in parallel with the 4.7", which could have a huge positive impact on the numbers of this qtr and the holiday quarter. Don't expect too much of the launch weekend sales numbers though, as the initial launch weekend only happens in a limited number of countries (China excluded). Limiting the number of countries is probably an indicator that launch supplies will be constrained and there will be a huge backlog following. Not a major issue for AAPL over the coming quarters, but will draw negative blogger headlines, including bearish authors here on SA.
    Sep 10, 2014. 04:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Innovation Lies At The Heart Of Apple - Doesn't It? [View article]
    Great idea! Just close your short position MB, lick the wounds, and you shall find that there are people out there that appreciate grit put at work for good purposes rather than crappy investment advice!
    Sep 8, 2014. 11:03 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment