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AnLe41

AnLe41
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  • Netflix Earnings And Why Growth Oriented Investors Should Own It [View article]
    Netflix is allowed to miss earnings numbers apparently. I put an option earnings play on just before the market closed and earnings were released (a put credit spread), and couldn't initially believe my eyes that the stock exploded up when I saw the financials. Investors only cared about the growth in paying subscribers, both in the US and internationally. The fact that Netflix has a tremendous cash burn and had the lowest qtrly EPS since Q1 2013 didn't matter. All the better for my put credit spread, as I can close the position for a nickel tomorrow with max profit!

    Imagine what would happen with a stock like AAPL if EPS was less than half of consensus expectations!
    Apr 16, 2015. 05:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google: EU And Competition Will Weigh On Earnings [View article]
    Alex - great article, thanks! I agree with you that the talent in Google certainly helps to keep the stock price floor at a reasonably high level.

    However, I have often wondered why Google seems to never succeed in launching any new products or services and convert them into meaningful revenue streams, in spite of all the incredible innovative talent in the organisation.

    My conclusion is that Google, unlike Apple, lacks the skill-sets required to take their ideas from promising prototypes /beta concepts into refined and polished gems that are ready for mass adoption. Investors have rewarded Google's stock price for years for Google's habit of always telling the market what they have cooking in their labs, but I think this will fade rapidly in the coming year.
    Apr 15, 2015. 11:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google: EU And Competition Will Weigh On Earnings [View article]
    AAPL for sure has a lot of upsides, known to the market but not yet priced into the stock. GOOG and FB are at the opposite end, with a lot of future pies in the sky already priced into their stocks. I sold all my Google shares beginning of 2014 and couldn't be happier with that separation!

    As far as AAPL goes, I don't expect that the market will change its view and drive the price higher solely based on successful products and services launches prior to hard facts. Only when Apple reports and provide the full details behind its successes will the market take the stock to new highs. I've been long AAPL for more than 10 years and have become more patient over the years. At the end of the day, I get my rewards as a shareholder.
    Apr 15, 2015. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Small Change In Apple Maps, A Giant Leap Into Mobile Ads [View article]
    I wouldn't call it manipulation, it's just part of the natural dynamics of financial instruments and in particular AAPL, given its huge size in the options markets. If you check this week's monthly expiration options, you will see that there are huge amounts of open call options between strike prices $127 to $130 (the latter >135,000 options). Each option represents 100 shares, so there are strong interests in the market to keep the stock price from going higher this week.

    Unless there are any big news, AAPL will not move upwards until next week.
    Apr 15, 2015. 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch: Understanding Early Sales Data [View article]
    JMM - many thanks for an excellent and most needed article!!! I was so frustrated earlier today when I noticed the misleading reporting that spread across the Internet. Very pleased for you providing the facts in a clear and structured format!
    Apr 14, 2015. 12:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google: 5 Big Reasons I Would Not Own It [View article]
    Brian - great article! Thanks for summarizing the areas where investors need to think carefully about the risk / reward, considering the uncertainties and the current valuation.

    I believe Google does its shareholders a disservice by not providing any forecasts themselves in their financial reporting, and they could also shed some more light on the various revenue streams, to avoid the guesswork that analysts and investors have to do. Or, it is a very consciously made decision, as Larry & Co don't want to reveal all the challenge areas they are struggling with?

    I made huge gains from selling all my Google shares end of 2013/beginning of 2014 and adding 100% of those proceeds to my AAPL holding. Difficult to say where things move from here, but I agree with your thesis that there is a substantial risk that Google's share price will drop due to valuation vs. earnings growth concerns, or at least continue sideways.
    Mar 27, 2015. 01:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Points A Somewhat Bearish Long Has Wrong About Google [View article]
    That was my investment thesis on why being in GOOGL, but starting to see all the initiatives around from other search engines, I felt that there was an increased risk that the other guys could start to eat some of Google's lunch.

    Fast forward to date, and I still see a risk that Duck Duck Go, Yahoo and Bing will continue to grab some. Some of the user base is getting more concerned about the deep data mining Google does to collect and sell personal data to its advertisers, and are therefore checking out alternatives.

    Some users get concerned when they realise they are the product and that the customers are the advertisers.
    Mar 27, 2015. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 Points A Somewhat Bearish Long Has Wrong About Google [View article]
    One of the best summaries I've seen for a long time on why I sold all my Google shares in the beginning of 2014. As I put 100% of those proceeds in AAPL instead, I couldn't be more happy over that period to date.
    Mar 27, 2015. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's: Marketing Machine Continues To Deflect Demand Discussion [View article]
    Clearly, there are two aspects that Tesla will have to deal with regarding their future demand:

    1) The strong USD vs. EUR (and other international currencies). Europe remains a very important market for Tesla. Remember how many Tesla Model S that have been sold in the small country of Norway, for instance. Over the last year, the USD has appreciated 25-30% against EUR and other European currencies. That makes (or will make) Tesla's substantially more expensive / decrease Tesla's future revenues from its international sales. => THIS WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT Tesla's demand. There's no escape.

    2) The "Range anxiety" and competition coming up with appealing alternatives. I have personally been very inclined to buy a Tesla Model X, but am starting to look at what the established premium car competition is coming up with.

    The new Audi Q7 e-tron is starting to look more appealing to me. It is a plug-in hybrid and is combined with a diesel engine, that kicks in under certain conditions. You can drive it 20-35 miles in pure electrical mode, which is enough for 80% of my city commutes. For longer trips, you drive it in combined mode with the diesel engine and the range suddenly extends to 876 miles, with a rated fuel efficiency of 117.6 mpg.

    http://aol.it/1MK79tJ

    Delivery of the new Audi Q7 will start in 2016 (probably around the same time I could get a Tesla Model X). Pricing has not been announced yet, but Audi is made in Germany with EUR as its base currency, so Audi has one up vs. Tesla for the European markets.

    Lastly, the battery innovation that Audi (and the VW group) is using, with individual standardized cells, that can be swapped out individually, seems really smart and will allow Audi / VW to procure its batteries from a multitude of suppliers at competitive prices.

    Tesla Model X is and will remain a great pure EV car. However, many prospective future buyers will likely be distracted by alternatives, where I bet that Audi Q7 E-tron is just one example (BMW has an X5 version coming out as well).
    Mar 17, 2015. 01:36 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Fighting The Battle That Can't Be Won [View article]
    Bill, the sad truth is that SA has become a forum where people don't care to read (or aren't capable of reading) an article properly and understanding the key thesis, or point, that you are making.

    If in any way, shape or form, the article aims at highlighting a circumstance that all (analysts included) may not have fully taken into consideration, whereas your fundamental position on the company is bullish/positive, the latter will go unnoticed and people conclude that you are bashing their stock darling and rage at you. I wouldn't even bother to reply to some of the most ignorant comments, but I guess it's good that you pay respect also to the less attentive readers.

    I like your analysis and what you highlight. I have a very large number of shares in AAPL and have a bullish view for the coming year(s) of where AAPL will go. I don't mind your articles at all, on the contrary, but I form my own opinion and don't always agree. If I remember correctly, the articles that have been perceived by SA readers as negative, have primarily highlighted a short-term issue to be aware of ahead of the next earnings release, or so. I don't recall to have seen any articles from you in the last year or so, where you express a general and more long-term negative view on AAPL. Even if you would write one, I don't think your articles (however great they may be) could move the needle on AAPL's stock price.

    Keep up the good work - there are many of us that really appreciate them!
    Mar 12, 2015. 10:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Fighting The Battle That Can't Be Won [View article]
    USD/JPY is up circa 20% in one year. Not so good either.
    USD/CNY (Chinese Yen) is more or less flat in one year.

    Of course the DCI appreciation will hit the P/L. It's simple math. Doesn't make Apple less of a magnificent company, but short term, it will be tougher to satisfy analysts' expectations. Exactly Bill's point.
    Mar 11, 2015. 11:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The New Battle For Smartphone Profit [View article]
    The overriding fact that is omitted in the statement that the Samsung S6 has a higher performance, is what the overall resulting performance is, when the efficiency of the OS, as well as the amount of 64-bit optimised apps, are included in the performance measurement. In short, I bet that the iP6 provides a better overall performance to the end user.

    Secondly, only a minor fraction of geek users would buy the Samsung S6 because of some HW component specs. Most people have (finally) come to understand that Mpixels count on the camera sensor has very little correlation to the resulting quality of the photos. Apple has deliberately chosen to keep the Mpixel count on the sensor lower, to instead favour picture noise in low-light conditions etc.

    Sticking with Android, Samsung is stuck in a non-differentiated eco system and will primarily compete vs. other Android phone manufacturers, including the real low-cost manufacturers in China. Apple will maintain a strong premium opportunity, thanks to its eco system. I for one, am a very happy owner of an iPhone 6, and primarily thanks to the overall eco system (and superb camera - in spite of the 8 Mpixels)!
    Mar 6, 2015. 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Currency Problem Becoming More Challenging For The Company [View article]
    No, you are right that this will likely not be an issue for the long run value of the company. That is not the point of the author's article either, as he just points to the fact that investors should be aware of this in the short run:

    "I still like Apple shares in the long term, but investors should realize the near-term implications of the dollar's sharp rise."

    Too many comments seem to have missed that point and believe that the article is an overall negative piece on AAPL.
    Mar 5, 2015. 05:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banks Trip Up Apple Pay Launch [View article]
    As far as I have understood, the preference to use these stolen cards / identities in Apple Stores is simply based on the high value goods you can buy there, which are then easily turned around for cash.
    Mar 5, 2015. 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Dow 30 Rebalance [View article]
    Unless BA has announced a stock split, I guess it must be an error/typo.
    Feb 25, 2015. 04:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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