Please note that the article that you are reading here was originally written on my blog and is republished in Seeking Alpha and other forums. Consequently, I neither track nor respond to comments here. I am sorry! ================ Editors' Note: Seeking Alpha monitors Dr. Damodaran blog and posts relevant articles on his behalf.
My investment work is strictly non-professional. I seek to maximize value by developing data-rich, bottom-up models that forecast future company performance based on prior history. I focus on companies in the energy sector that deliver value to investors through regular distributions.
Professionally, I'm an engineer with experience in statistical process analysis.
Please note that I do not read comments posted here, nor respond to messages here. I don't have the time. If you want my attention, you must seek it directly at my blog.
David J. Merkel, CFA — From 2003-2007, I was a leading commentator at the excellent investment website RealMoney.com (http://www.RealMoney.com). Back in 2003, after several years of correspondence, James Cramer invited me to write for the site, and now I write for RealMoney on equity and bond portfolio management, macroeconomics, derivatives, quantitative strategies, insurance issues, corporate governance, etc. My specialty is looking at the interlinkages in the markets in order to understand individual markets better.
I no longer contribute to RealMoney because my work duties have gotten larger, and I began this blog to develop a distinct voice with a wider distribution.
In 2008, I became the Chief Economist and Director of Research of Finacorp Securities (http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/02-08-2008/0004752449&EDATE=). Finacorp went into liquidation in June 2010, after which I decided to open my own asset management shop, Aleph Investments, LLC. I manage stock and bond portfolios for clients.
Until 2007, I was a senior investment analyst at Hovde Capital, responsible for analysis and valuation of investment opportunities for the FIP funds, particularly of companies in the insurance industry. I also managed the internal profit sharing and charitable endowment monies of the firm.
Prior to joining Hovde in 2003, I managed corporate bonds for Dwight Asset Management. In 1998, I joined the Mount Washington Investment Group as the Mortgage Bond and Asset Liability manager after working with Provident Mutual, AIG and Pacific Standard Life.
My background as a life actuary has given me a different perspective on investing. How do you earn money without taking undue risk? How do you convey ideas about investing while showing a proper level of uncertainty on the likelihood of success? How do the various markets fit together, telling us us a broader story than any single piece? These are the themes that I will deal with in this blog. I hold bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Johns Hopkins University.
In my spare time, I take care of our eight children with my wonderful wife Ruth. Visit this site: The Aleph Blog (http://alephblog.com/)
Greenbackd is dedicated to unearthing undervalued asset situations where a catalyst exists likely to unlock the value. Greenbackd focuses on assets for three reasons:
1. Assets are simpler to value than earnings: Earnings are often difficult to forecast with any degree of accuracy and we can't value a security based on unknown future earnings. Assets, on the other hand, are known quantities at filing. This is not to say that the value of the assets recorded in the filing is the value we ascribe to them. We disregard intangible assets, heavily discount long-term and fixed assets, and apply a modest discount to current assets. We take only cash at face value. For these reasons, we prefer that each security is predominantly backed by cash, hence our name: Greenbackd. 2. Assets anticipate the downside, the liquidation value, first: This forces us to be conservative in our assessment of value.
3. Assets are a contrarian measure of value: To the extent that Wall Street makes any assessment of value, it is obsessed with earnings. It pays little attention to assets. This creates an opportunity where a valuation based on a company's earnings underestimates the company's asset value.
Our favorite stocks are those trading at a substantial discount to liquidation value with an activist investor pushing the company to undertake some corporate action (for example, return capital, pay a special dividend, buy back stock, sell a key asset or the entire company). Greenbackd is penned by a former securities lawyer now working in value-oriented activist funds management
Visit his website: Greenbackd (http://greenbackd.com/)
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of Active Value Investing (Wiley) and The Little Book of Sideways Markets (Wiley).
His books were translated into eight languages. Forbes Magazine called him "The new Benjamin Graham". To receive Vitaliy’s future articles by email or read his articles click here.
I am a dividend investor and look for undervalued investments in the stock market. I identify misunderstood and undervalued equity investments and hold those securities until their price approximates my estimate of intrinsic value. I am a long-term investor only.
I am building a $100,000 high-yield income portfolio. I am running this portfolio as an experiment to see if long-term sustainable income can be generated from a diversified pool of high-risk, high-yield securities. I am willing to accept high risk in order to meet my performance goals.
Marc Schober is the editor of Farmland Forecast (http://www.farmlandforecast.com/) and a Director at Colvin & Co. LLP. Mr. Schober researches the investment opportunities in farmland and agriculture and has been featured in many financial publications and conferences.
I am a private investor with over eight years of experience in the public markets.
I most recently served as a founding member of an institutional portfolio strategy firm headquartered in NYC. My prior experience includes three years as an analyst at a long/short equity hedge fund, two years in sell-side equity research, and two years as a healthcare investment banking analyst.
The reports that I write are my personal research and opinions. They are not associated with any firm or organization, and are not intended to be taken as investment recommendations or advice. They combine my passions of economics, finance, writing and education, and are intended mostly as educational material. I attempt to write the articles in an easy to understand down to earth style in an effort to help others with their research. This is my effort to bring understandable and educational professional quality research to the public at large free of charge.
General Disclaimer for my Articles:
BS Business, Majored in Finance and Economics, Miami University
MA Economics w/ Managerial and International Emphasis, University of Oklahoma
Past: Economics and Finance Instructor at various Universities
Past: Mutual Fund Portfolio Manager of Family of Mutual Funds
Past: CIO of Mid-Sized Investment Management Firm
Professional: CFA Charterholder
Please note that the content of this site should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute.
Dr. Ahanotu is a graduate of Stanford University with over twenty years of experience doing analytic modeling, executing pricing strategies through price optimization, and implementing, developing, and selling enterprise software. He adds to this industry experience another five overlapping years of research in knowledge management and organizational learning. Duru Ahanotu, Ph.D. founded Ahan Analytics, LLC to deliver sustainable, data-driven approaches for improving business performance. He recognizes the unique challenges companies face in leveraging their data to increase revenues, become more efficient, and drive profitability.
Before launching Ahan Analytics, LLC, Dr. Ahanotu was last a Sales Consultant in the Advertiser and Publisher Solutions (APS) group within Microsoft Advertising. In this capacity, he provided product knowledge, functional expertise, and technical support to APS account executives who sold APS’s suite of media monetization products. He led product demonstrations and increased the productivity of the sales team by training and certifying employees on the use and demonstration of the software. Dr. Ahanotu took on this role after Microsoft acquired his former employer Rapt, Inc. Rapt provided software solutions for maximizing revenue and yield for online media publishers.
With Rapt, Dr. Ahanotu last served as an Engagement Manager for a software implementation for a $100 million on-line publisher with a rapidly growing business. With his project team, Dr. Ahanotu created and coordinated novel approaches to inventory forecasting, structuring of product hierarchies, and ETL across software systems for order management, advertising delivery, and Rapt’s software. He also generated a step-by-step methodology for interpreting and using the results of price optimization.
As a Solutions Architect, Dr. Ahanotu served as the lead Solutions Consultant on client engagements and provided technical assistance and guidance to Solutions Consultants on other projects. Dr. Ahanotu designed and implemented price optimization solutions, demonstrating expertise in mathematical modeling, pricing, data analysis, SQL, and relational data models. He led discussions with customers and internal teams to improve implementation processes and product design.
Dr. Ahanotu held oversight responsibility for the analytic modeling for two projects using Price Director, Rapt’s price optimization software. Each project supported pricing decisions in Fortune 50 businesses: one business was a leading online media publisher, and the other was a rapidly growing technology company in a low margin business. Dr. Ahanotu helped the latter client integrate Price Director into pricing workflow. As part of this first-ever client implementation of Price Director, he worked closely with Product Management, Analytic Development, and Software Engineering to ensure that early-stage product functionality met client needs.
Dr. Ahanotu contributed several new methodologies for implementing Price Director analytics and conceptual frameworks for training clients on these analytics. He is a contributor on a related Rapt patent: “Method and System for Producing Optimized Prices for Products for Sale.” Dr. Ahanotu presented a white paper on the pricing of New Product Introductions at the 2006 INFORMS Annual Meeting. The Professional Pricing Society published this paper in The Journal of Professional Pricing (Vol. 16, No. 1, First Quarter 2007) as “Pricing New Products: Turning Portfolio Uncertainty Into Profits.”
Prior to Rapt, Dr. Ahanotu was a consultant with Integral, Inc, a small strategic management consulting firm. During his three-year tenure, he consulted on product development and technology strategy focused on high tech and pharmaceutical companies. Prior to Integral, he developed mathematical programming algorithms for managing and optimizing “Y2K” projects as an independent contractor. Prior to this work, he implemented expert systems for diagnosing and troubleshooting automotive and semiconductor manufacturing equipment as a Business Solutions Project Manager and Consultant for Expert Edge, Inc.
Dr. Ahanotu earned a Master’s and Ph.D. in Engineering-Economic Systems (1999), a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering, and Honors in Values, Technology, Science, and Society (1991) - all at Stanford University.
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Adam Levine-Weinberg is a graduate student by day, but also follows the stock market obsessively. He is an amateur investor always looking for good value stocks, and generally aims to profit from the market's irrationality.
According to Greek mythology, Glaucus, a god of the sea blessed with the power of prophecy, frequently came to the rescue of distressed sailors and fisherman. We founded Glaucus Research Group California LLC (a California Limited Liability Company) to help capital markets investors navigate treacherous financial waters in search of great investment opportunities.
Exceptional investment returns are generated when consensus expectations rely on assumptions that are either flawed or irrelevant. Footnote Finder is a value investor that believes that market inefficiencies such as these can be discovered through a careful reading of financial statements.
Investment professional and CFA charterholder. I write on Seeking Alpha as a personal hobby and to elicit feedback on specific ideas and topics, help organize my thinking, and connect with intelligent people.
I am an activist investor in US and Chinese stocks. I was previously an investment banker in New York Hong Kong and London for 9 years, focused on Equity Capital Markets. I look at both long ideas and short ideas and typically focus on a small number on names where I can spend the time to conduct very deep research. I spend my time living between Los Angeles and Beijing, China.
Roddy Boyd is an investigative reporter who has worked for Fortune Magazine, the New York Post, The New York Sun and Institutional Investor News. He also founded The Financial Investigator website, www.thefinancialinvestigator.com. I also wrote "Fatal Risk," on the collapse of AIG.
Most recently, he has founded the Southern Investigative Reporting Foundation, www.sirf-online.org.
SIRF is dedicated to providing document-driven investigative reporting on publicly traded companies. Our work is centered on providing accountability and information to the investing public and regulators. We are organized as a tax-exempt organization, are members of the Investigative News Network and gladly adhere to the highest standards of journalistic integrity. We do not invest in any securities, short or long, and do not take payment for our work. No one sees our work prior to publication.
I am a former analyst, now full-time investor. I may take long or short positions in companies that I write about, although my focus is on uncovering what I believe to be questionable companies and transactions. I will always provide disclosure whenever I publish a blog post.
I will never attempt to provide false or misleading information. All facts that I present on this site are true to the best of my knowledge. All opinions presented are my own and accurately reflect my actual opinion on the issues that I write about.
Muddy Waters, LLC is a pioneer in on-the-ground, freely published investment research. Muddy Waters peels back the layers, often built up by seemingly respected but sycophantic law firms, auditors, and venal managements. We assess companies’ true worths. Our research approach is to combine diverse talents–many of whom have hands-on experience running businesses in the US and emerging markets.
Andrew Left's Citron Research (http://www.citronresearch.com/) (formally known as Stocklemon.com) seeks to expose companies whose management is in some way misleading investors. Left digs into SEC filings, financials, management histories and other data to uncover such situations, and he is usually short the stocks he writes about. Mr. Left has been publishing for 7 years and has created a track record that is unrivaled in short selling. Mr. Left has been cited in Barron's, Wall St Journal, CNBC and other major publications repeatedly for his work. Mr. Left was also an invited speaker at the reknown Master Investor Conference.
Visit: Citron Research (http://www.citronresearch.com/)
Gemstone Equity Research provides in-depth and research driven trading insight to individuals and institutional investors. Our team constantly looks for companies to cover in technology and services sector, which enables us to provide timely and actionable investment ideas to our clients.
We achieve our goals through intense focus and discipline. We hope to share our knowledge through this platform.
Our team is based in Chicago and New York with experience at Google, The Wall Street Journal, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Tribune and WallStreetView.
YCharts visualizes massive amounts of market information to identify companies with long-term competitive advantages and appropriate valuations. Fundamentals matter and we believe it’s important to understand how companies perform over time and relative to their peers. We cover over 20,000 U.S. & Canadian companies and manage over 40 million investor trends in real-time.
I focus on investments in the oil & gas & MLP sectors with an eye for dividend income growth and long-term capital appreciation. I typically allocate a portion of my own portfolio and devote some of my Seeking Alpha articles to small and medium sized companies offering compelling risk/reward propositions. I am an engineer, not a qualified investment advisor. While the information and data presented in my articles are obtained from company documents and/or sources believed to be reliable, they have not been independently verified. Therefore, I cannot guarantee its accuracy. I advise investors conduct their own research and/or consult a qualified investment advisor. I explicitly disclaim any liability that may arise from investment decisions you make based on my articles. Thanks for reading and I wish you much success with your investments.
“one of the last great advocates of reason”
We manage a hedge fund that utilizes value investing principles and rigorous analysis.
Prospective investors, financial reporters, etc. can reach us using the Seeking Alpha messaging platform.
Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for its investors and then Mr. DeMuth writes about them on StW.
Tom Shaughnessy is owner of SecretCaps.com, an independent investor and analyst. He has been investing in the stock market since the age of twelve. His style is comprehensive and includes multi-layered research on a concentrated set of stocks. Tom enjoys constructive dialogue regarding various investment ideas and theories. Tom enjoys intensive research on prospective investments. This includes valuation estimates and modeling, CEO and management interviews, product and expansion overviews, future prospects, financial analysis and the current state of affairs at the company. Moreover, Tom's articles have a focus on micro-cap companies whose potential have flown under the radar. In his leisure time Tom enjoys playing racquetball on a competitive level. Twitter: Toms_119
Gold Stock Trades Editor Jeb Handwerger is a highly sought-after stock analyst syndicated internationally and known throughout the financial industry for his accurate and timely analysis of the equities markets, particularly the metals and mining sector. Subscribe to his FREE Newsletter right now at: http://goldstocktrades.com.
Lawrence Weinman has worked over 20 years in the financial markets advising both institutional and individual investors. His services now include both ongoing fee only asset management and per hour or per project portfolio analysis and allocation reommendations by email/phone or in personal meetings. He is available for personal consulations Calfiornia, New York metropolitan area, South Florida and for US citizens in Israel.
He has worked in the capital markets groups of Citicorp, Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale where he headed the foreign currency options marketing group for North America. Working with individuals he has designed and implemented asset allocation and investment strategies and assisted his clients in retirement and tax planning. Mr. Weinman has presented seminars on financial issues to both lay and professional audiences in the US and abroad and has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Business Week, CNN and the Reuters and Bloomberg news services as well as local Southern California media. Mr. Weinman holds a BA from Columbia University and an MBA from the Stern School of Business of New York University. He currently teaches a class on investment management for MBA students.
I have a PhD in Finance (ABD), a Masters in Economics, and a B.S. in Industrial Engineering. All three of my degrees have largely been focused on data analysis, and that’s what most of my work experience has dealt with. I’m a professor at a major US university now where I teach classes on data analysis and do research on the financial markets, but before that I worked for a major Wall Street bank as a bond trader, and before that I worked for a hedge fund as a quant developing investment strategies.