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arthur_bishop1972

arthur_bishop1972
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  • 3 Worries For December [View article]
    I don't see any meaningful drop in Dec, Bret. 11 months ago, I think you predicted a mostly flat 2014, maybe 5-10% in either direction (correct me if I'm wrong...the 5-10% might have been my own prediction). I think we will finish the year over 18k in the Dow (still within the 5-10% level yoy), and a likely overbought condition to go with it (black swans not included, of course). Whether it's fund managers trying to catch up or who the hell knows what (reason-insert yours here), the market looks to be shrugging off sub $70 oil right now. If we go down further, say sub-$60, that could change.
    Dec 4, 2014. 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is No One Excited About Lorillard? [View article]
    "Don't bogart it, Grandma...pass that thing over here."
    Dec 4, 2014. 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint offers to cut AT&T/Verizon subscriber bills in half [View news story]
    Agreed. I wouldn't touch Sprint b/c where I live (near CA/OR border), their coverage is weak and coworkers have all switched (to T or VZ) or are about to.
    Dec 3, 2014. 01:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: A Primer For 2015 [View article]
    Thanks for this update, Bill. There are a lot of questions surrounding PM going into 2015, but I think they will muddle along and make it work, tho the $USD's strength will challenge them. I think they will succeed in growing eps but it will take longer than expected, and we will see this range of high $70s-high $80s for quite a while.

    That said, I also believe they will continue to raise the div 6-10% every Sept and will find a way to buy back several billion $ in shares annually.

    Do you have a price range/target for 2015 yet??
    Dec 3, 2014. 01:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC Changed The Game, Why I'm Now Considering Selling My Stake In Linn Energy [View article]
    Lol...fair point, but I'm not panicking. I haven't sold any VNR or BBEP, even tho I've taking it up the tailpipe on both like a lot of guys here.

    Of course I want to buy more, esp BBEP at $10-11, but the fog is still pretty thick w/re to how low oil might go and for how long. If we are in the midst of a paradigm change, the rules are going to be RADICALLY different-that's my point.

    I want to be wrong on that, but it's impossible to be sure at this moment in time.
    Dec 2, 2014. 12:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC Changed The Game, Why I'm Now Considering Selling My Stake In Linn Energy [View article]
    Bob, you raise a good point. Im now genuinely concerned about VNR and BBEP's distributions.
    Dec 1, 2014. 01:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oneok Partners LP Bags Some Of Chevron's NGL Assets [View article]
    The dist is at 7% currently. I think we may see high $30 to low $40s (7.5%) before it stabilizes. It made it through the last downturn w/out cutting the distribution.
    Nov 30, 2014. 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Don't Throw Out The Baby With The Bathwater [View article]
    berloe-

    I believe it does, yes.
    Nov 30, 2014. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Don't Throw Out The Baby With The Bathwater [View article]
    I think OKS will be fine, tho it will prob see low $40s. It made it through '08-09 w/out cutting its distributions.
    Nov 30, 2014. 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices And Their Impact On Schlumberger [View article]
    I think toobad41 (see above) is right. I'd look for an entry around $75, $78-79 if you are prepared to avg in.
    Nov 30, 2014. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE Part II: Oil And Gas Segment Analysis [View article]
    Lol, Felix. I'm not making it up. Random words in these article are light blue and underlined, and when I run my mouse over them, small ads pop up.

    Maybe a virus, spam-both...who knows. I have good security on this computer, so it's a mystery to me at this point. It's not always there tho, usually when I click on an article for the first time only.
    Nov 30, 2014. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Is Dead Money Which Continues To Die [View article]
    I don't know about that. How much further you figure they can fall (risk/reward wise)?? The easy money (on shorting drillers) has already been made there imo.
    Nov 30, 2014. 02:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Is Dead Money Which Continues To Die [View article]
    Agree completely, and when it does, RIG and SDRL will end up in the same sentence even more than they do now.
    Nov 30, 2014. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Win Some, Lose Some [View article]
    <The fact that SDRL failed to live up to my expectations will not change my strategy, nor my nature.>

    It's been my experience that nothing changes our nature. How successful we are at resisting (the negative part of) our nature is often a good indicator of how successful we will be in life.

    Oh, and I'd dump the shares and fuggedaboutit.

    From 'Midnight Run':

    Charles Grodin (to Robert De Niro): "I don't think she's coming back, Jack. Sometimes you gotta just let go and move on."

    Love 'My Cousin Vinny'..."The 2 yutes"..."What is a yute?!??"..."Oh excuse me...YOUTH-TH-TH-SSSSS."
    Nov 30, 2014. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore Drillers Are Toxic And I Love It [View article]
    <Some programs will get cut and local currency depreciation will take care of the rest>

    That is indeed a very plausible scenario, and kinda is my point. If some of the 'wrong' programs get cut, unrest won't be far behind. And it would largely come from reduced oil revs.
    Nov 29, 2014. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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