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marpy

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  • Wall Street Breakfast: Greek Optimism Boosts Stocks Higher [View article]
    Look at Cable and Telecom in Canada where the government has allowed 3 or 4 big companies to carve out Monopoly areas and make it extremely difficult for foriegn competition and you will see that it is a very poor situation for the consumer. This is not to say that their are no problems with these industries in America, only that its bad in Canada.
    Mar 1, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iron Ore Prices Continue To Weigh In On ArcelorMittal With No Relief In Sight [View article]
    As far as Iron ore prices are concerned, the worst is behind it for MT and accounting aside, their iron ore production would be profitable at $60 per ton. The big 3 producers are in control of Iron ore prices and something tells me that they do not want a price much lower than $60 per ton as this allows them to be very profitable while meeting their goals of growing market share and having the higher cost producers cut capacity. Also, a lot of MT's North American Iron Ore capacity is in Canada giving them a 20% advantage due to the exchange rate.
    With US steel shutting down its Canadian operations, MT is the only game in town as far as Canada is concerned and has a very profitable Canadian operation. In America, the almost new Calvert facility purchased for 10 cents on the dollar will allow them to streamline and re-organize considerably as they have old inefficient mills that could now be shut down. They have also done a lot of work in reorganizing the European division which is already paying off.
    The biggest threat for MT and most steal producers in 2015 is Chinese steel over production which is looking for a home anywhere it can find it. This should work itself out as China transitions to a consumer led economy and the over supply is dealt with.

    With MT, its a case of buying it when no one else wants it and waiting it out. Worlds largest steel company is selling for bargain prices.

    JMO - Long MT
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro Is A Football Stock - Cramer's Lightning Round (2/26/15) [View article]
    Exactly - he makes a dollar here and losses it there = zero. Also a dart board has been proven to give you a similar record. ;-)
    Feb 27, 2015. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil drops nearly $1 as pace of rig count declines slows [View news story]
    If the Saudis are not happy, then a couple of more tanker loads landing in Texas will adjust the price of oil and rig count going forward. Its their game and everyone else can just watch and see what they do. ;-)
    Feb 27, 2015. 04:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro Is A Football Stock - Cramer's Lightning Round (2/26/15) [View article]
    I suspect that this guy makes most of his money in the entertainment business as his investment advice does leave a lot to be desired!! ;-)
    Feb 27, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Buy Energy Financings - And When Not To [View article]
    Risky move to make for CVE - Not!! Its a no loose situation as if oil prices drop, they have secured the ability to pay the dividend and execute the capital program for the next two years and if oil prices increase, no one will care about 9% dilution in shares outstanding and the share price will follow oil up.
    The projects that CVE are completing are something like 75% complete and so it makes sense to finish them as once the capital has been spent, these plants are cash cow money generating machines.
    As for the dividend - better to maintain it than tank the share price by cutting it. Especially so when you are a year or two away from a large increase in production and cash flow.
    As for the over allotment option on the share issue, I see no problems here as the 2 large Canadian banks leading this effort also have large holdings in CVE in funds that they manage and with the dividend being considered secure due to this issue of shares, I suspect that they will find a home for every share they can get. Income is in big demand in this low interest rate environment.
    CVE has historically been a very conservatively run company and what they are doing fits the bill.

    JMO and Long CVE
    Feb 26, 2015. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Oil Producers' Shuffle 2014: Global Oil's Direction? [View article]
    Of all these companies, I like ECA the most and my reasoning is quite simple. ECA has acquired some of the best acreage in the Eagle Ford and the Permian and its early days in the Texas oil business for them. This means that they do not have a bunch of wells that looked real good at $100 oil which do not look so good at $50 oil. What they bought (although the timing could have been better) was premium acreage and they are growing in the $50 oil environment and will be picking their drill targets accordingly. They have also used their expertise to lower costs substantially over a short period of time and we should see more gains on this front.
    They are also sizable natural gas producers owning among the best acreage here as well and have adjusted to the low cost natural gas environment well. They are re fracking wells in the Haynesville play and my understanding is that the results are natural gas produced for around $1/ MCFM and have sold a large part of this years production forward at $4.18.
    They have developed a strong operational base from which they should be able to grow considerably.

    JMO - Long ECA
    Feb 26, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Net Neutrality To Sweep The Nation? [View article]
    Net neutrality and open access is a must as it forces companies to compete and make sure their networks meet customer demands. The last thing that is needed is the joke that currently exists in Cable and telecom. For the extreme sad end of that joke, look no further than what Canada has where big Telco has been granted monopoly rights in carved out areas and foriegn competition is not allowed. Customer satisfaction is about as low as it can get and prices are sky high even though most of the people live in highly populated urban areas. The governments job should always be to ensure a level and fair playing field that puts the power and choice in the hands of the people and nothing more. Ensuring net neutrality and open competition does this.
    Feb 26, 2015. 10:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Steel Is One Of The Few Bargains Left In This Market [View article]
    I like MT (Arcelor Mittal) better. More International exposure, only game in town and very profitable in Canada now that US steel shut down Canadian operations, less exposure to U.S. oil and gas , they own the Calvert facility with a Japanese partner which has by far the newest rolling mills in America, they also produce a lot of their own Iron ore which should be favorable now that it looks like prices have stabilized and they have a restructured European division that should also do well as Europe improves going forward. They also trade way below book value.

    JMO - Long MT
    Feb 25, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Markets On Edge Before Yellen Round Two [View article]
    Actually, the pipeline will produce a lot of jobs, pay federal, local, state taxes and rent to landowners in every state that it crosses. It will increase security of supply for America and lower prices as it provides another competitive alternative to the heavy oil currently being refined in Texas. This is not rocket science as with millions of miles of pipelines already in service, the economics of pipelines are well known. - thousands of construction jobs followed buy jobs and taxes in every state it crosses and refinery jobs plus support jobs where the oil gets refined. The beauty of it is that unlike government funded infrastructure jobs it does not cost the American tax payer a cent.
    Reality is reality and green propaganda trash saying something different is just that - green propaganda trash.
    As far as the environment and terrorist threats are concerned, Keystone with the latest in monitoring technologies and being built to the latest much higher standards would be much safer than all the old pipelines currently in operation - focus where the problems really are. ;-)
    Feb 25, 2015. 10:55 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Unsettled environment" hits BMO FQ1 results [View news story]
    It was actually a good quarter with most divisions doing well. Capital markets and insurance were the weak spots. The correction should be good for the DRIP plan. Long BMO.
    Feb 24, 2015. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Turquoise Hill Announces Sale of Remaining Stake in SouthGobi Resources [View article]
    South Gobi was trading at over $10 when a Chinese company was willing to buy it but thanks to the Government of Mongolia and their anti business attitude and corruption, it is now being sold for 35 cents. South Gobi is just one of many companies having issues in Mongolia. Their are good reasons why foriegn investors are avoiding the place like the plague!!!!
    Feb 24, 2015. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Rig Count Is A Red Herring [View article]
    I suspect that unless the Saudis see curtailed production by others, they will use their extra capacity to meat their goals. Remember that they may produce 9 million barrels but only export 6 million barrels and so 50% more exports for a $15 drop in price probably means more money in their pockets while inflicting a lot more pain on other producers. Everyone else producing looses but they win! The only negative from their perspective is that it would make life every difficult for some of OPEC and to a lesser extent their allies in the Gulf.
    In the end, I do not believe the Saudis will back down any time soon.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Rig Count Is A Red Herring [View article]
    Yup and those with no acreage in those areas are toast at $50 oil.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Rig Count Is A Red Herring [View article]
    Natural gas was impacted in a big way by drilling that switched to looking for oil/ liquids and also produced a lot of natural gas on top of the oil/ liquids. This is how a lot of natural gas drillers saved their own bacon. Big difference now is that both commodities are depressed (no saving ones bacon by switching). As for sweat spots - 80% of acreage does not fit the bill and those who have it will use it as their only option to survive while the rest are in trouble. It will work for a while but not IMO long as far as keeping overall oil production up is concerned.

    JMO
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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