Seeking Alpha

marpy

marpy
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View marpy's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Investment Potential Of Top 10 U.S. Natural Gas Producers [View article]
    In this space, I like Encana for the following reasons:

    1) North American play (some of the others are as well)

    2) they hold some of the best property in both natural gas as well as oil.

    3) After their recent purchases in the Permian and Eagle Ford, they are in one of the best positions to grow oil production considerably going forward. Unlike oil from further inland (Baakan crude gets under $30), Their production gets WTI prices or better.

    4) They have been in the Natural gas business for a long time and have adapted to the lower prices and most 2015 production is hedged at $4.29.

    JMO - Long ECA
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big 5 Canadian Banks: What's The Difference? [View article]
    The Canadian banks are all relatively solid from an investment perspective, but some are better than others. Two key factors in determining which one to invest in are the degree of exposure to the Canadian residential real estate market and oil and gas. Residential real estate in Canada is IMO big time bubble mode and the consumer is very over extended with debt levels being a fair bit higher than average. Canada did not go through the hosing crash that America did and prices just kept going up and so a correction is due. The price of oil says all one needs to know with respect to being over exposed in oil and gas. one also has to consider whether they want to be exposed to Caribbean and Central American banking - I for one would rather not.
    Looking at the above, TD and Royal are probably the most exposed to Canadian residential real estate and I believe that BNS has a sizable Central American operation. This leaves CM and BMO . With CM, it got into the most trouble of the Canadian banks after 2008 and so it has also climbed the most from that time but fixing its problems meant not focusing on future growth. This leaves BMO which would be my pick. I like BMO because of the sizable American exposure (they doubled that by buying an American bank at a good price after 2008), the lower exposure to Canadian residential and Oil and gas and its small but growing foot print in China. The past leaders (TD and RY) have been so due to their higher exposure to to Canadian real estate and consumers - big growth areas in the past that I view the most vulnerable going forward.

    JMO
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. rig count keeps falling but rate of decline slows [View news story]
    There may be a lot more storage capacity than people think.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 28, 2015. 08:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ArcelorMittal: A High Risk, High Reward Play [View article]
    At the current price, I do not see a lot of risk in MT. 17 billion market cap for 6% of the worlds steel production seems cheap to me. Yes there are problems with overcapacity and over production in China but I think that this will work itself out. China's transitions to a more consumer oriented economy does not mean that manufacturing and export will not still be a large important sector and steel consumption should increase once they get through the turbulence of making the transition.
    We also have India that has elected the first business friendly government in a long time - they may finally start living up to there growth potential which would require a lot of steel.
    As for Aluminum in vehicles and the Ford 150, This sis nothing new and every time we get sustained high oil prices (in this respect it looks like poor timing on Fords part) you get auto manufacturers moving to more aluminum. My understanding here is that the F150 is very expensive to manufacture, very expensive to repair , does not have the advertized weight advantage when compared to the newer stronger steels, some of the aluminum parts had to be beefed up when they had cracking issues and that some of the steel bodied counter parts get better gas millage. As such, aluminum is far from a done deal as far as taking any sizable market share from steel in this area.
    MT's research and development efforts coupled with its global presence also put it ahead of the pack as it positions them to take the lead in new developments and supply globally - something no other steel company can match.
    MT's purchase of the Calvert facility (newest finishing facility in America for 10 cents on the dollar also gives them a leg up as it positions them well for rationalizing there American operations and cutting costs.
    I see MT as having a bright future. Long MT
    Mar 26, 2015. 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get U.S. Dividends From Canadian Dividend Stocks [View article]
    Just wait till you really need something from the Canadian medical system and then you will find out how bad it is. It is designed to look after the system and those who profit from it at the expense of those who need it. This means waiting lists for anything not deemed an immediate emergency to limited choice as to your treatment and who is treating you. As a patient you will find out that you have minimal rights, get kicked out of the hospital as soon as they can get rid of you and get saddled with all sorts of fee's for things that used to be covered but are not any more.
    It is a system quickly going down hill.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudis Signal New Oil Strategy As Production Nears Record Highs [View article]
    I see no change in the Saudi oil strategy. They are just flexing there muscle a little to ensure everyone knows who is in charge of this oil game. I suspect that the Saudi strategy over market share also has price targets associated with it as it makes no sense other wise. They can't play the market share game without pushing other producers higher cost production out of the way and price is the only way for them to do that.

    And so the oil games continue!!!!
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cameco's Tax Dispute Does Not Affect The Bullish Case [View article]
    A bigger reason that is impacting Cameco negatively is the dropping price of LNG which takes the heat of Japan restarting its nuclear reactors and makes building new ones in China and the rest of the world less urgent. As for the tax case - If they loose, it will hurt.

    JMO
    Mar 24, 2015. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: European Markets Fall Ahead Of Greek Meeting [View article]
    Obama has a Canada connection as well (one of his siblings lives their). It did not do Canada any good as he treats Canada more like the enemy than the friend Canada has been for the last 100 years. ;-)
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC governor: oil at $100-$120 again a long shot [View news story]
    Saudis are currently in control of the price of oil and currently have way more to gain from low oil prices than from high.

    1) Saudis have the huge cash pile that lets them ride this out for years if need be.

    2)) Even if Iran gets a deal that allows for an extra million barrels a day , the will be pumping more but earning less than half than they were at $100 plus oil. This Saudi adversary will have to make a deal with the Saudis if they want any chance of getting any increased income.

    3) Russia is licking its wounds at $50 oil - 1/2 the revenue with very limited ability to pump more and sanctions mean that they do not get the technology and equipment needed to even maintain production. Another Saudi adversary kept at bay.

    4) Opec and mainly the Saudi's remain relevant as a force in the markets. The two only real factors in remaining relevant are to be the low cost producer and to maintain a significant market share. The Saudis are working to ensure both of these.

    5) Saudis are the only producers that are capable of significantly raising production quickly regardless of oil price (3 million barrels per day in spare capacity) This gives them the power to decide where oil prices will be.

    6) The Saudis have been among the largest arms producers in the world for a number of years now. Although I do no believe that they will go looking for trouble, they are probably the strongest conventional military power in the region. This coupled with a high degree of US support puts them in a very strong position.

    The are in the drivers seat and will be for the foreseeable future.

    Mar 22, 2015. 03:35 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Encana Announces Closing of Over-Allotment Option in Connection With Bought Deal Offering [View article]
    They have some of the best natural gas properties in North America and now have bought into 2 of the best oil plays in North America as well. They have a very good base to move forward from once oil heads up.

    JMO Long ECA
    Mar 20, 2015. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters unreachable in China [View news story]
    Anyone reading elsewhere in China?
    Mar 20, 2015. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher crack spread could cut Cenovus Energy funding gap, analyst says [View news story]
    My understanding is that the 2 big projects they are working on are over 70% finished which means that next year, funding requirements can go way down and stay their till the oil price co operates.

    JMO
    Mar 19, 2015. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Petroleum Inventories [View news story]
    Oil pumpers getting more desperate as they keep digging a deeper hole by pumping more!!!
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Encana - An Energy Company Looking For An Identity [View article]
    With respect to "Encana does not have an extensive hedging program." - That is correct for oil but they have most nat gas hedged at over $4.00 for 2015 and a sizable amount at over $4 in 2016 as well.
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Markets Await Fed Policy Decision [View article]
    "Athens is likely to run out of cash by the end of the month and may then default on its debt, potentially forcing itself out of the euro zone." I suspect that that may be what the "new clowns" in Athens had in mind all along. They keep saying something different every day but it is evident that they do not want to pay their bills and really do not want to do what it takes to remain in the monetary union. The smart citizens have already pulled their Euros out of the bank and put them under the mattress.
    Mar 18, 2015. 09:46 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
991 Comments
1,976 Likes