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  • Keystone approval could be "light bulb moment" for investing in Canada [View news story]
    If that was really anything more than a bump on the road, the markets would have and still be acting on it but they have not.
    Apr 4, 2014. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone approval could be "light bulb moment" for investing in Canada [View news story]
    Does Obama really then have a choice? If he losses the senate then between the two houses that will have Republican majorities, they will ram that pipeline through regardless of what Obama may want. If he passes the pipeline then it should help him out in the mid terms but he will have to eat some crow. Well as they say - crow gets tougher with age so better chow down now! ;-)
    Apr 4, 2014. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone approval could be "light bulb moment" for investing in Canada [View news story]
    Well their you go bear bate -Janfa has some expertise and is spelling out for you. As for put up or shut up - you are the one not putting anything up! But then I suppose it does not matter how much evidence gets posted - your type does not believe anything that does not agree with your thinking.
    Apr 4, 2014. 02:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone approval could be "light bulb moment" for investing in Canada [View news story]
    Because all the reputable scientific studies that have looked at this have said that it is not at risk. The aquifer in the area that the pipeline is running in and most of aquifers in general are hundreds of feet underground while the pipeline is at most 10 feet underground. A leak means you get a blob of oil sitting on the ground and in the case of heavy oil, diluent s that tend to evaporate or can be collected. As such the far bigger risk is the impact a leak near surface water ways would have. And even here there are precautions that have been put in place to minimize this as much as possible. There are thousands and thousands of pipelines that cross America and most of them are far more of a risk than keystone due to age and old technology and they do cross many aquifers. You would be far better focusing on them and getting improvements to then than being led around by your nose by the ideologically driven and wasting your time on what will be the safest pipeline ever built to date. Hate to be blunt but sometimes you have to!!!
    Apr 4, 2014. 12:14 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Inventories Poised To Rise From 11-Year Lows, Rig Count Doesn't Matter [View article]
    Everybody wants to have a conspiracy theory but sometimes you just got to look at the reality of the situation. Their is far more money to be made in oil and liquids than in gas so why would any company want to spend any more than the minimum required to meet obligations to drill for gas? Especially so when you consider that a lot of liquids and oil focused well will also produce gas and that most companies are accountable to shareholders who would not be to happy to see a shift towards gas.

    Sometimes it just is what it is - no scam or conspiracy theory required.
    Apr 4, 2014. 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Think about it - short of pulling the battery or unplugging the thing why would you design a safety device that could be turned off??? I am not talking about the reset button here that lets you silence an alarm after its gone off and if the conditions that set it off are no longer their it stays off. - that is completely different. This is as dumb as having an airplane tracking device that can be turned off from within the plane like on that jet they are still looking for.

    In both cases - can you say STUPID!!!!!!!
    Apr 4, 2014. 09:22 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Canadian Oil Producers - Keystone XL Is Irrelevant [View article]
    IMO There no victory at all for the administration and its environmentalist supporters in stopping Keystone.

    - It will not prevent expansion of the oil sands as it has been more than proven that the industry will just find alternate means of transporting and alternate customers.

    - It leaves America ever more dependent on the likes of Venezuela for its oil.

    - It drives a wedge between America and its closest ally.

    - It will cost America jobs and money. Cut it anyway you want, the advantage of the cheaper Canadian feedstock is maintaining jobs in the gulf coast refineries and America collects more taxes on this crude than on what comes in from off shore.

    - The environmentalists will have wasted a lot of resources and time on something that is far from the worse problem facing the planet when it comes to global warming, pollution and greenhouse gasses. Coal, deforestation, a total lack of environmental responsibility by many producers and users are a far bigger problem.

    -They are picking on an area and industry that is very focused on environmental improvement and IMO will in the not to distant future be on par with most other oil production methods as far as environmental impact goes. The current gap is 4% - 15% depending on who you believe.

    - It increases the cost of energy to America and makes America's goal of energy self sufficiency that more elusive.

    Sounds like nothing more than a real big loosing proposition to me.

    JMO
    Apr 3, 2014. 10:28 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Encana to sell Jonah field operations to TPG Capital for $1.8B [View news story]
    ECA is a very asset rich company and I suspect to see more deals designed to unlock value going forward. JMO
    Mar 31, 2014. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Torstar's Ongoing Value Trap [View article]
    Market cap at around current price is around 475 million dollars. Torstar owns a lot of the real state that its papers/ business operate out of and it owns quite a few papers. Just the value of its real estate in Toronto and area could be worth more than its current market cap. Also it is still a profitable company even if its not growing. They have also not done a very good job of making the operation more efficient - still lots of little guarded empires that could be stream lined and made more efficient from what I see. - lots of opportunity to do things more efficiently. I would think that their is a lot of value to be unlocked here.

    JMO
    Mar 31, 2014. 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Seeking Alpha Is Doing To Prevent Paid Stock Promotion [View article]
    It is good to see that SA is keeping an eye on things and I would hope that they do not let their guard down and actually step up the auditing and checking. SA has a excellent reputation and is one of the sites I visit regularly. My experience does though tell me that you do need to know something about the stock or subject you are reading about. Their are some very good authors here but their are also some that I would classify in the learning or up and coming category. Even when the author is completely up front (and I believe most on SA are) a lot is dependent on opinion and how and which facts are presented as well as the knowledge depth of the author. When it comes to depth of knowledge, some of the cementers have a better understanding than the Authors which is why you see some authors getting called up big time on what they write and getting what I call "chased out of town"

    JMO
    Mar 28, 2014. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turquoise Hill Announces Financial Results and Review of Operations for 2013 [View article]
    Repeat post for those who may not look at announcements of upcoming earnings announcements.

    Good story on what is going on in Mongolia with respect to TRQ and also shows how China seems to have made a deal to open up its boarders in turn for exporting some heavy duty pollution to Mongolia (4 coal gassification plants that will no doubt supply China.) also gives some incite with respect to how the investment world views the government and specifically the mining minister.


    http://on.ft.com/1ix6K1j


    ft.com > Comment > Blogs >
    FT Alphaville


    Turquoise — still the colour of money in Mongolia?
    Dan McCrum | Mar 25 13:25 | Comment | Share


    Decision time approaches for Mongolia, Rio Tinto and Turquoise Hill on Oyu Tolgoi, the enormous copper mining project that could one day represent about a third of the landlocked nation’s economy.


    Since we reported that Mongolia’s yet to be created sovereign wealth fund could take an equity stake in Turquoise (which releases earnings after the close in Toronto on Tuesday), one deadline has been extended, the mining minister has done his best to wind up investors, China has reasserted itself and Tony Blair has popped up.


    All of which means that a deal to start work on the underground part of the mine (phase II), funded by $4bn of loans by commercial banks and multilateral lenders, is very close. But it remains caught up in Mongolian politics, and may not hit the March 31 deadline on which the funding hangs.


    To deal with those loans first. The agreement with the commercial banks is good until Monday. The World Bank’s International Finance Corporation and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development had set a February 24th deadline for their involvement, but this was kicked out to March 31.


    Rio and a team of Mongolian negotiators led by a former politician have pretty much nailed down the terms of their agreement, and could have some sort of memorandum of understanding and completed feasibility study ready to go by Monday.


    We also understand that Tony Blair — who has form in helping big mining deals get past a late-stage impasse — has told the Mongolians that the deal is fair, although in an unofficial capacity only. Officially he is in the country advising on a governance project.


    However Rio needs/wants someone with clout to sign the agreement, such as the prime minister, before they start digging on this. Which brings us to the mining minister, Gankhuyag Davaajav.


    He was in Toronto this month to talk up the country at a mining conference, the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada, with a keynote address that gives a sense of the importance of the project to an economy that is exploding:


    But then the minister, an unapologetic resource nationalist, had a series of meetings with investors. They didn’t go so well. Sample reaction quote:


    He really went out of his way to be a dickhead.


    When Gankhuyag was first appointed he said he would renegotiate the underlying investment agreement that specifies the ownership and royalty structure for the mine, or resign. Rio has point blank refused, and he has since rowed back from that, but continues to be noisily opposed.


    While not actually being part of the negotiations, the mining minister represents a significant political constituency that is seen in some quarters as an obstacle to getting the deal done.


    Further stirring the pot, Mongolia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Bold Luvsanvandan appeared in Sydney last week and told Reuters that it will all come together when the next parliamentary session starts on April 5. While not involved in negotiations, he is in the cabinet, but then again has since rowed back from that statement as a gaffe, according to locals.


    So what is clear is that the Mongolian political situation is not. Prime Minister Norovyn Altankhuyag seems likely to face a no confidence challenge when parliament returns. One way to avoid taking the blame for signing or not signing an Oyu Tolgoi deal — he’ll be attacked either way — would be to present it to parliament for approval.


    That way the country’s politicians have to hold hands and jump together. Political victory and happy Rio.


    However, parliament can only do that after March 31. If we were a risk officer at commercial bank, we might look at what has happened to Mongolian sovereign risk, interest rates, emerging market risk premiums and perceptions of China in the last year, and decide that our terms have changed. For example, the yield on sovereign bonds which Mongolia issued internationally has risen to 7 per cent, from 4.8 per cent a year ago. (“Oyu Tolgoi is the largest financial undertaking in Mongolia’s history,” the bond’s prospectus said in 2012.)


    Change the cost of capital, and might y0u then affect the feasibility study on which the Mongolians appear to place a lot of stock? The whole project is delayed once more.


    Meanwhile the importance of the mine to the future of the economy has lessened as China has opened its checkbook to help out a neighbour. The PBoC has doubled its swap line, to about $3.2bn, removing the risk of foreign currency liquidity problems for the government. China also plans to build four coal to gas plants in the country, at an estimated cost in the region of $30bn (or two years’ worth of current GDP).


    The Turquoise Hill share price still remains one of the best indicators for investor sentiment towards Mongolia. Were the country’s sovereign wealth fund to take an equity stake, it would be an important signal about future property rights, the country’s “third neighbour” policy (please don’t leave us reliant on Russia and China, developed world) and how Rio will treat minority shareholders.


    But while those conversations continue, we hear from sources close to the government that no one really has the first idea what to do with the sovereign wealth fund when it finally starts to get royalties.


    And finally, when it comes to valuing Turquoise there is plenty of fun to be had. We got some pushback when we passed on a suggested C$30 plus take out value for the 49.5 per cent Rio doesn’t already own.


    We’re told that to get to a ballpark near that requires some enthusiasm for future projects at a mine which could have a 50 (70?) year productive life — enthusiasm that a patient corporate buyer might price in a way short term investors have not. (The share price is C$3.69).


    But then the copper this mine produces will be 80km from the Chinese border with nowhere else to go (for now). We think it is unlikely to be priced according whatever is happening at the LME, so good luck forecasting those particular dynamics.
    Mar 26, 2014. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turquoise Hill to Announce Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2013 Financial Results on March 26, 2014 [View article]
    Good story on what is going on in Mongolia with respect to TRQ and also shows how China seems to have made a deal to open up its boarders in turn for exporting some heavy duty pollution to Mongolia (4 coal gassification plants that will no doubt supply China.


    http://on.ft.com/1ix6K1j


    ft.com > Comment > Blogs >
    FT Alphaville


    Turquoise — still the colour of money in Mongolia?
    Dan McCrum | Mar 25 13:25 | Comment | Share


    Decision time approaches for Mongolia, Rio Tinto and Turquoise Hill on Oyu Tolgoi, the enormous copper mining project that could one day represent about a third of the landlocked nation’s economy.


    Since we reported that Mongolia’s yet to be created sovereign wealth fund could take an equity stake in Turquoise (which releases earnings after the close in Toronto on Tuesday), one deadline has been extended, the mining minister has done his best to wind up investors, China has reasserted itself and Tony Blair has popped up.


    All of which means that a deal to start work on the underground part of the mine (phase II), funded by $4bn of loans by commercial banks and multilateral lenders, is very close. But it remains caught up in Mongolian politics, and may not hit the March 31 deadline on which the funding hangs.


    To deal with those loans first. The agreement with the commercial banks is good until Monday. The World Bank’s International Finance Corporation and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development had set a February 24th deadline for their involvement, but this was kicked out to March 31.


    Rio and a team of Mongolian negotiators led by a former politician have pretty much nailed down the terms of their agreement, and could have some sort of memorandum of understanding and completed feasibility study ready to go by Monday.


    We also understand that Tony Blair — who has form in helping big mining deals get past a late-stage impasse — has told the Mongolians that the deal is fair, although in an unofficial capacity only. Officially he is in the country advising on a governance project.


    However Rio needs/wants someone with clout to sign the agreement, such as the prime minister, before they start digging on this. Which brings us to the mining minister, Gankhuyag Davaajav.


    He was in Toronto this month to talk up the country at a mining conference, the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada, with a keynote address that gives a sense of the importance of the project to an economy that is exploding:


    But then the minister, an unapologetic resource nationalist, had a series of meetings with investors. They didn’t go so well. Sample reaction quote:


    He really went out of his way to be a dickhead.


    When Gankhuyag was first appointed he said he would renegotiate the underlying investment agreement that specifies the ownership and royalty structure for the mine, or resign. Rio has point blank refused, and he has since rowed back from that, but continues to be noisily opposed.


    While not actually being part of the negotiations, the mining minister represents a significant political constituency that is seen in some quarters as an obstacle to getting the deal done.


    Further stirring the pot, Mongolia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Bold Luvsanvandan appeared in Sydney last week and told Reuters that it will all come together when the next parliamentary session starts on April 5. While not involved in negotiations, he is in the cabinet, but then again has since rowed back from that statement as a gaffe, according to locals.


    So what is clear is that the Mongolian political situation is not. Prime Minister Norovyn Altankhuyag seems likely to face a no confidence challenge when parliament returns. One way to avoid taking the blame for signing or not signing an Oyu Tolgoi deal — he’ll be attacked either way — would be to present it to parliament for approval.


    That way the country’s politicians have to hold hands and jump together. Political victory and happy Rio.


    However, parliament can only do that after March 31. If we were a risk officer at commercial bank, we might look at what has happened to Mongolian sovereign risk, interest rates, emerging market risk premiums and perceptions of China in the last year, and decide that our terms have changed. For example, the yield on sovereign bonds which Mongolia issued internationally has risen to 7 per cent, from 4.8 per cent a year ago. (“Oyu Tolgoi is the largest financial undertaking in Mongolia’s history,” the bond’s prospectus said in 2012.)


    Change the cost of capital, and might y0u then affect the feasibility study on which the Mongolians appear to place a lot of stock? The whole project is delayed once more.


    Meanwhile the importance of the mine to the future of the economy has lessened as China has opened its checkbook to help out a neighbour. The PBoC has doubled its swap line, to about $3.2bn, removing the risk of foreign currency liquidity problems for the government. China also plans to build four coal to gas plants in the country, at an estimated cost in the region of $30bn (or two years’ worth of current GDP).


    The Turquoise Hill share price still remains one of the best indicators for investor sentiment towards Mongolia. Were the country’s sovereign wealth fund to take an equity stake, it would be an important signal about future property rights, the country’s “third neighbour” policy (please don’t leave us reliant on Russia and China, developed world) and how Rio will treat minority shareholders.


    But while those conversations continue, we hear from sources close to the government that no one really has the first idea what to do with the sovereign wealth fund when it finally starts to get royalties.


    And finally, when it comes to valuing Turquoise there is plenty of fun to be had. We got some pushback when we passed on a suggested C$30 plus take out value for the 49.5 per cent Rio doesn’t already own.


    We’re told that to get to a ballpark near that requires some enthusiasm for future projects at a mine which could have a 50 (70?) year productive life — enthusiasm that a patient corporate buyer might price in a way short term investors have not. (The share price is C$3.69).


    But then the copper this mine produces will be 80km from the Chinese border with nowhere else to go (for now). We think it is unlikely to be priced according whatever is happening at the LME, so good luck forecasting those particular dynamics.
    Mar 25, 2014. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notable earnings before Wednesday’s open [View news story]
    Good story on what is going on in Mongolia with respect to TRQ and also shows how China seems to have made a deal to open up its boarders in turn for exporting some heavy duty pollution to Mongolia (4 coal gassification plants that will no doubt supply China.

    http://on.ft.com/1ix6K1j

    ft.com > Comment > Blogs >
    FT Alphaville


    Turquoise — still the colour of money in Mongolia?
    Dan McCrum | Mar 25 13:25 | Comment | Share

    Decision time approaches for Mongolia, Rio Tinto and Turquoise Hill on Oyu Tolgoi, the enormous copper mining project that could one day represent about a third of the landlocked nation’s economy.

    Since we reported that Mongolia’s yet to be created sovereign wealth fund could take an equity stake in Turquoise (which releases earnings after the close in Toronto on Tuesday), one deadline has been extended, the mining minister has done his best to wind up investors, China has reasserted itself and Tony Blair has popped up.

    All of which means that a deal to start work on the underground part of the mine (phase II), funded by $4bn of loans by commercial banks and multilateral lenders, is very close. But it remains caught up in Mongolian politics, and may not hit the March 31 deadline on which the funding hangs.

    To deal with those loans first. The agreement with the commercial banks is good until Monday. The World Bank’s International Finance Corporation and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development had set a February 24th deadline for their involvement, but this was kicked out to March 31.

    Rio and a team of Mongolian negotiators led by a former politician have pretty much nailed down the terms of their agreement, and could have some sort of memorandum of understanding and completed feasibility study ready to go by Monday.

    We also understand that Tony Blair — who has form in helping big mining deals get past a late-stage impasse — has told the Mongolians that the deal is fair, although in an unofficial capacity only. Officially he is in the country advising on a governance project.

    However Rio needs/wants someone with clout to sign the agreement, such as the prime minister, before they start digging on this. Which brings us to the mining minister, Gankhuyag Davaajav.

    He was in Toronto this month to talk up the country at a mining conference, the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada, with a keynote address that gives a sense of the importance of the project to an economy that is exploding:

    But then the minister, an unapologetic resource nationalist, had a series of meetings with investors. They didn’t go so well. Sample reaction quote:

    He really went out of his way to be a dickhead.

    When Gankhuyag was first appointed he said he would renegotiate the underlying investment agreement that specifies the ownership and royalty structure for the mine, or resign. Rio has point blank refused, and he has since rowed back from that, but continues to be noisily opposed.

    While not actually being part of the negotiations, the mining minister represents a significant political constituency that is seen in some quarters as an obstacle to getting the deal done.

    Further stirring the pot, Mongolia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Bold Luvsanvandan appeared in Sydney last week and told Reuters that it will all come together when the next parliamentary session starts on April 5. While not involved in negotiations, he is in the cabinet, but then again has since rowed back from that statement as a gaffe, according to locals.

    So what is clear is that the Mongolian political situation is not. Prime Minister Norovyn Altankhuyag seems likely to face a no confidence challenge when parliament returns. One way to avoid taking the blame for signing or not signing an Oyu Tolgoi deal — he’ll be attacked either way — would be to present it to parliament for approval.

    That way the country’s politicians have to hold hands and jump together. Political victory and happy Rio.

    However, parliament can only do that after March 31. If we were a risk officer at commercial bank, we might look at what has happened to Mongolian sovereign risk, interest rates, emerging market risk premiums and perceptions of China in the last year, and decide that our terms have changed. For example, the yield on sovereign bonds which Mongolia issued internationally has risen to 7 per cent, from 4.8 per cent a year ago. (“Oyu Tolgoi is the largest financial undertaking in Mongolia’s history,” the bond’s prospectus said in 2012.)

    Change the cost of capital, and might y0u then affect the feasibility study on which the Mongolians appear to place a lot of stock? The whole project is delayed once more.

    Meanwhile the importance of the mine to the future of the economy has lessened as China has opened its checkbook to help out a neighbour. The PBoC has doubled its swap line, to about $3.2bn, removing the risk of foreign currency liquidity problems for the government. China also plans to build four coal to gas plants in the country, at an estimated cost in the region of $30bn (or two years’ worth of current GDP).

    The Turquoise Hill share price still remains one of the best indicators for investor sentiment towards Mongolia. Were the country’s sovereign wealth fund to take an equity stake, it would be an important signal about future property rights, the country’s “third neighbour” policy (please don’t leave us reliant on Russia and China, developed world) and how Rio will treat minority shareholders.

    But while those conversations continue, we hear from sources close to the government that no one really has the first idea what to do with the sovereign wealth fund when it finally starts to get royalties.

    And finally, when it comes to valuing Turquoise there is plenty of fun to be had. We got some pushback when we passed on a suggested C$30 plus take out value for the 49.5 per cent Rio doesn’t already own.

    We’re told that to get to a ballpark near that requires some enthusiasm for future projects at a mine which could have a 50 (70?) year productive life — enthusiasm that a patient corporate buyer might price in a way short term investors have not. (The share price is C$3.69).

    But then the copper this mine produces will be 80km from the Chinese border with nowhere else to go (for now). We think it is unlikely to be priced according whatever is happening at the LME, so good luck forecasting those particular dynamics.
    Mar 25, 2014. 11:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    The thinking of North America being able to supply Europe with most of its energy amounts to crap anyway. The increase in North American output of energy (with the exception of increased oil sands production) has been mostly from shale gas and tight oil. Both of these sources are among the most expensive sources of carbon based energy and the production wells also have very high decline rates. This tells me that trying to supply Europe would take a huge and impossible effort that would be extremely expensive and would not last long. Russia on the other hand is producing most of its energy from conventional long life fields that are very cheap to operate. The big winners of this attempt would be Russia, China and the far east as they would welcome any additional Russian energy and Russia would get to develop new markets giving it that much more of an upper hand in the energy game.
    Also not that anything the west is doing now has nothing to do with Crimea and everything to do with putting a damper on Russia's next move. The one thing for certain is that there will be a next move.

    JMO
    Mar 25, 2014. 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Threat To Canada's Oil Sands Boom [View article]
    Even by your numbers - like I said - take Quebec out of the picture and in the rest of Canada its a different story and Quebec exports a lot of its power south. Quebec also did a lot of environmental damage with the huge man made lakes built for that hydro. Also you need to find better sources than Wikipedia. ;-)
    Mar 23, 2014. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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