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marpy

marpy
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  • Wall Street Breakfast: ECB Pledges To Boost Bond Buying [View article]
    Once the Greeks are done, then the Italians are next in line and so the message to the Italians has to be "do not bother getting in line". In order for this message to be heard loud an clear, Greece either has to make arrangements to pay the bills or get the Boot from the EEC. Nothing else will work.
    May 19, 2015. 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia - Its Power Will Not Last [View article]
    70 years from now, the internal combustion engine (responsible for most oil consumption today) will have gone the way of the steam engine. This IMO means that the oil left in the ground then will not be worth nearly as much as it is today. The Saudis realize that they need market share in order to maintain their relevance in the oil markets and are taking a couple of steps in this regard. 1) they are moving as much of their own energy consumption to other sources of energy (like natural gas of which they have a lot) and 2) they have increased their drilling program considerably which should increase their maximum pumping capacity. These steps should let them supply more oil to the world market than they currently do and this will in turn give them the flexibility to adjust supply to the world market up or down as required to attempt to achieve their goals.
    Their is no doubt that oil as a transportation fuel will sometime in the future be replaced and I suspect that the Saudis are adjusting their market share and price in an attempt to push this day out as far as they can.

    JMO
    May 18, 2015. 08:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Cameco: It Has More Risk And No More Potential Than An Alternative [View article]
    Her is another way to look at Cameco. With Cameco you have the largest low cost uranium producer in the world and so the one thing it will not be doing is disappearing anytime soon. Having said this, their are a lot of negatives associated with the stock - the high price to earnings ratio, the overhanging tax dispute and the price of uranium which is still stuck on the lower end of the scale despite all the predictions.
    As such, I would avoid the uranium space altogether but keep an eye on Cameco. If a couple of the negatives hit it or the price of uranium fails to deliver, you could be looking at a $10 stock or less in fairly short order. You now have a bargain and out of favor/ biggest in its field low cost producers are my kind of stocks. You know that they will eventually turn around and based on the expected rewards and some dividend payout, the investor can usually ride it out to a handsome profit.
    My view on those trying to predict the price of anything going forward is that they just add to the "market noise". History has proven that these predictions are like broken clocks - mostly wrong and occasionally lucky enough to get it right.
    Avoid the noise and focus on buying discounted value that will in the long term perform. ;-)
    May 17, 2015. 10:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternatives To Fortescue Metals' Nationalistic Fervor Over Iron Ore [View article]
    Vale would love a increase in taxes in Australia - up goes Vale's market share! ;-)
    May 15, 2015. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternatives To Fortescue Metals' Nationalistic Fervor Over Iron Ore [View article]
    All Andy did was shoot his mouth off - far from doing anything illegal and especially so when the competition is refusing to play ball and laughing at you! He is basically sour grapes as his company is not exactly a low cost producer.
    May 15, 2015. 02:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Negative Expectations On Iron Ore And Coal Caused ArcelorMittal To Become Oversold [View article]
    With Iron ore, anyone trying to predict where it is going to go is really waiting their time. Vale, BHP and Rio Tinto are the players that will decide where Iron ore is going and they are not really telling anyone. They take actions and the price reacts is as good as it will get. The only thing that matters from a producers point of view is cost of production. The low cost producers will be fine, the high cost producers are toast and those in between will suffer. Let me put it another way - where were all the geniuses predicting $50 iron ore when it was trading at $160?? their weren't any!!:-)
    May 15, 2015. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Negative Expectations On Iron Ore And Coal Caused ArcelorMittal To Become Oversold [View article]
    As far as Iron ore shipments are concerned, you need to compare Q1-14 to Q1-15 if you want to see whats really going on. Iron ore shipments are impacted by seasonality and weather more than people think. When you compare same quarters, you see that they have actually increased.
    MT has been working at reorganizing and rationalizing operations and cutting costs for a while now. They have gone a long way in Europe and are now reaping the benefits. The purchase of the Calvert mills allows them to do the same thing in North America and they are working on it. Because of their size and locations, they have geographic synergies that other in the business can only dream off. Their move into the Chinese market has been focused on higher end automotive steels and this largely lets them avoid the steel troubles in China.
    IMO, MT is the best play in steel right now. Long MT
    May 15, 2015. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Netflix In Talks To Enter China - Reports [View article]
    Yes as it just results in jobs disappearing, prices going up and just makes those earning above the minimum that much poorer as they will not likely be getting a raise because minimum went up. Raising minimum wage is no substitute for fixing the problem.
    May 15, 2015. 09:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale oil producers ready to bring rigs back into service [View news story]
    JMO -This could be part of the Saudi game plan. Make it look like the price is rebounding so that these players will come out from hiding and start spending money only to kick them in the teeth once they have been strung along for a while. The Saudis are by far the low cost producers and while North American and world rig count has been dropping, Saudi rig count has been going up.


    Sounds like they are getting ready for a real long battle for market share to me!!!!
    May 14, 2015. 04:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale oil producers ready to bring rigs back into service [View news story]
    This could be part of the Saudi game plan. Make it look like the price is rebounding so that these players will come out from hiding and start spending money only to kick them in the teeth once they have been strung along for a while. The Saudis are by far the low cost producers and while North American and world rig count has been dropping, Saudi rig count has been going up.

    Sounds like they are getting ready for a real long battle for market share to me!!!!
    May 14, 2015. 04:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale oil producers ready to bring rigs back into service [View news story]
    If they do start increasing the number of rigs, they are guaranteeing a drop in the oil price. Increasing the number of rigs is a self defeating proposition as one of the big reasons oil is up is be cause the rig count is down.

    Talk about shooting themselves in the foot!! It only makes sense to drill if you can be economic at sub $40 oil IMO. In other words only in the core of the best plays.
    May 14, 2015. 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy East pipeline application should be suspended, groups say [View news story]
    All 60 of those organizations are nothing more than biased anti pipeline lobby groups with fancy misleading tittles trying to pretend that they are something else.
    May 14, 2015. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Encana downgraded at RBC, which prefers stronger balance sheet [View news story]
    RBC = nuts!? when you look at their latest results, they have made excellent progress in lower costs, moving new technologies into their plays in the Permian and Eagle Ford that will increase reserves and further lower costs as well as having lowered their debt considerably with more positives on the way. They are also using $50 oil as their bemnch mark which is lower than what oil trades at today. They have 10,000 plus drilling locations on existing property, partners paying 75% of costs for 50% of production in a considerable portion of their Canadian plays and are a low cost nat gas producer.
    JMO and long ECA
    May 14, 2015. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe imposes anti-dumping duties on special steel [View news story]
    More anti dumping duties coming in Europe and anti dumping duties in the USA will not be to far behind.
    May 14, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: European Stocks Rise After GDP Data [View article]
    They do not trust Obama. Is he more interested in Legacy than a good deal?? I can't blame them for being cautious.

    JMO
    May 13, 2015. 08:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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