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marpy

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  • Cenovus announces 2015 budget [View article]
    The smart thing to do in this environment is to cut back on capital costs, maintain production with any short term growth limited to what can be done profitably, continue to do what you have to ensure longer term growth of low cost production and most importantly keep the share holders happy by maintaining the dividend (this ensures upper management keeps their jobs as well as large funds holding lots of shares view this as important). Oil sands plays and especially first in class like CVE have fairly low production costs with long life reserves. Most of the capital requirements are for expansion projects and cost of building the plant in the first place. CVE also has refinery interests and in a falling oil price environment these tend to do well. JMO
    Dec 11, 2014. 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy insiders buy most shares since 2012 [View news story]
    Do the math - pumping more oil does not work as selling a little more for a lot less means a lot less revenue.;-)
    Dec 9, 2014. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of OPEC On The Energy Sector [View article]
    The oil sands producers tend to require high capital costs to build the plants but then the result is long life reserves with low operating costs as such, best in class like CVE may slow down future expansion plans but should have no problem surviving the current price decline. CVE also has a sizable refining business that should do quite well.
    I would also think that OPEC is targeting all high cost producers, not just the US shale plays. The US shale plays will though be the first to feel the pain as they require high capital costs and constant drill to maintain production due the high well decline rates. JMO
    Dec 9, 2014. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why The Dip In Canadian Oil Sands Presents A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Not saying its a buy or not a buy but when you use comparisons like this, you article becomes very suspect. "This is pretty low when compared to peers Suncor (NYSE:SU), which has net debt of $5.78 billion, Imperial Oil (NYSEMKT:IMO), which has net debt of $5.11 Billion"

    Suncor and Imperial oil are both much larger companies with a lot more depth than the one trick pony COS.
    Dec 8, 2014. 09:59 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There Will Be No Respite For ArcelorMittal Going Forward [View article]
    The article is on US steel but it does have a graph near the end on Debt / Capital ratio's of some major steel producers. MT is in the better shape.

    http://bit.ly/1A6ru76
    Dec 7, 2014. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Markets: Sentiment And Lame Thinking Are Currently In The Driver's Seat [View article]
    Russia's sovereign wealth fund may rapidly deplete but the Saudi's due to being larger while having way smaller obligations to deal with will not.
    Dec 6, 2014. 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Steel could be cheap oil's next victim, analyst says [View news story]
    Those mainly in the lat rolled business (AK and MT come to mind) should fair way better as low oil means an uptick in other sectors of the economy which use steel other than pipe.
    Dec 6, 2014. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There Will Be No Respite For ArcelorMittal Going Forward [View article]
    MT is IMO the best bet in the steel sector. It is the worlds largest steel company with synergies others can only dream of. Not sure where you get your debt numbers from but my understanding was that it was around 17 billion with a goal of getting to 15 billion. (15 Billion, MT views as being sustainable throughout the steel market cycle). They have used the downturn in Europe to rationalize their European operations and this should be very positive when Europe again starts growing. They are also working on streamlining North American operations having bought a finishing plant that cost 14.5 billion to build for 1.5 billion with their Japanese partner. In Canada, their Dofasco plant which is extremely profitable is the only game in town as US steels Canadian operations are on the ropes and the old Algoma steel plant has been at best a marginal producer for years.
    As for the Ford F150 experiment, this is nothing new with various manufacturers having tried this in the past. Bottom line on Aluminum in Automotive is more expensive to build, more expensive to repair and my understanding is that the weight savings are grossly exaggerated (the 700 lbs was before they had to beef up certain parts due to cracking issues and new steel grades also chip away at this considerably).
    They are smart operators and if you look at any of the purchases they have made lately, they are purchases where they have sizable strategic advantages. Atlantic coast finishing plant - they have an ample cheap slab supply to feed this plant - something the previous owner did not have. It also lets them rationalize U.S. finishing operations as they have a lot of older mills that are not as efficient. African Iron ore deposit purchase from (I believe BHP) - They have a rail road servicing existing operations and a right of way which was something BHP did not have. These are just 2 examples.
    Again, they are smart operators that realize that low cost is key in the steel business. I am long MT at around current price and short term would not mind if it drops so I can buy more. JMO
    Dec 6, 2014. 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Oil Sands - What's It Worth? [View article]
    I like Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) and Cenovious Energy (CVE) a lot better. Both have conventional oil production as well as oil sands production. Both produce nat gas as well and this offsets the production costs of the oil sands production which uses a lot of nat gas. And in CVE's case, they have a sizable refining business in the USA. JMO
    Dec 2, 2014. 05:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The return of the inflated appraisal [View news story]
    We have a simple solution here - hold the people doing the appraisers legally and financially responsible and hold the banks legally and financially responsible for any 3rd parties they may hire. And of course, their has to be constant follow up and review to keep them all on their toes.
    Dec 2, 2014. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BMO misses estimates, boosts dividend, sets buyback [View news story]
    Regardless of the headlines, it was actually a very good quarter for BMO as the hit was in capital markets and insurance while most other divisions did well. JMO
    Dec 2, 2014. 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Natural Resource chairman sees oil touching $30 [View news story]
    Until yesterday, he most likely thought $100 was cheap. Now all of a sudden they got to adjust their business plans. Nope he does not have a clue and neither does the rest of the North American oil patch. Now the Gulf Opec members - that's a different story as they are holding a lot of the cards and could decide to play a different tune tomorrow.;-)
    Dec 1, 2014. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of Montreal 4QFY14 Preview: Focusing On U.S. Growth [View article]
    Actually BMO has expanded in the USA and has a sizable presence - they made a purchase a few years ago. Excellent timing on their part as it was after the 2008 US banking disaster and just before things started looking better. This added considerably to the Harris Bank numbers which BMO has owned for 25 plus years.
    Dec 1, 2014. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Natural Resource chairman sees oil touching $30 [View news story]
    Like most people, he did not have a clue as to where oil was going before and he does not now either. Rich and famous means he gets headlines though. JMO as the comedy show of oil price predictions keeps rolling forward!
    Dec 1, 2014. 10:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's talk $2 gas [View news story]
    lets hope the governments do not use this as an excuse to increase gas taxes - especially the provincial governments in Canada who are notorious for looking for any excuse to raise taxes.
    Nov 30, 2014. 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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