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marpy

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  • Reuters: ArcelorMittal sends letter of intent for Italian steel plant [View news story]
    I also have to say that I own some MT so lets hope they do not get taken to the cleaners.
    Aug 15 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • STWA's AOT Pipeline Optimization Hardware Delivers Clean Tech Benefits to Oil and Gas Industry Seeking to Mitigate Carbon Emissions [View article]
    Lots of nice words but no numbers to back anything up.
    Aug 15 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: ArcelorMittal sends letter of intent for Italian steel plant [View news story]
    Yes but he is dealing with the kings of making real crap look like gold. ;-)
    Aug 14 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: ArcelorMittal sends letter of intent for Italian steel plant [View news story]
    This plant has had huge problems including the union and lots of corruption. They need to make absolutely sure that the deal would be good for its business in Europe and create value.
    Aug 14 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Growth Group: Profiting From The Land Of Luxury Blue Sky Promise [View article]
    You said it very well David. 5 stars for you!
    Aug 13 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Growth Group: Profiting From The Land Of Luxury Blue Sky Promise [View article]
    Because Mongolia under the current government is NOT becoming more business friendly and has not been more business friendly since the current government has come into power. Look at what has happened with Turquoise Hill Resources, South Gobi resources and many other companies that are having large difficulties in trying to do business in Mongolia. The Mongolian economy, currency and economic ratings have been headed in the wrong direction ever since this government has come to power. Their problems have been well documented in the world press and by a number of authors in Seeking Alpha. In makes the most sense to wait for some real positive signs that Mongolia is turning a corner for the better than to invest any money now and this most probably means waiting for the outcome of the next election. If the people elect another nationalistic anti foriegn investment government like they have now, them all foriegn investors will get is more pain. If they elect a more business friendly government then their will be lots of time for investors to do well with a lot less risk than putting any money in now and hoping for an outcome.
    Its just common sense and most of the investing world agrees with me as is evidenced by the drop in foreign investment and the drop in the value of the currency and foriegn reserves.
    Like they say, always follow the money. Why do you keep reiterating the same lackluster information in your answers?
    Aug 13 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Growth Group: Profiting From The Land Of Luxury Blue Sky Promise [View article]
    When you look at all the risks involved, my opinion is that there are far better places for an investor to put money. Currency depreciation, government instability, corruption, government actions that are anti foriegn investment, a country close to requiring an IMF bailout - just to name a few. Some real change is needed in Mongolia before foriegn investors start to warm up to the country and the results of the upcoming 2016 election will be a good sign to investors as to whether Mongolia continues in its current negative ways or some real positive change is in its future.
    JMO based on following the situation in Mongolia for the last 10 years or so.
    Aug 13 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Growth Group: Profiting From The Land Of Luxury Blue Sky Promise [View article]
    Anyone that has spent any time following events in Mongolia know that any so called "reform agenda" the GOM comes up with amounts to a joke as they never really follow through with any of it and past history has shown that it can also change rather quickly. The problem is the current government in Mongolia and until it goes or their are some drastic changes to it, investors will be staying away as they have been.
    A number of authors on SA have written articles on Mongolia and Mongolian companies. Among them are Jon Springer, the late Emmet Kodesh and Gary Bourgeaurt. Their material provides good insight into the problems business faces in Mongolia.
    Aug 12 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Growth Group: Profiting From The Land Of Luxury Blue Sky Promise [View article]
    As evidenced by the continued drop in foriegn investment and the continued drop in the currency, the government has done Zero as far as anything of substance to reverse the trend in foriegn investment and how they treat foriegn investors. Lots of words yes but as far as real action, it has amounted to less than zero as they have actually made matters worse. More corruption, more difficulties for foriegn companies actually trying to do work in Mongolia about sums it up.
    Aug 12 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Growth Group: Profiting From The Land Of Luxury Blue Sky Promise [View article]
    The government has not shown that it has learned anything. Its action are quite negative and far different than its words. You mention the drop in investment in 2012 but they have had the same problem in 2013 and so far in 2014 as well. The foriegn investors await some real positive action and so far what I have seen from the GOM amounts to less than zero. After the election in 2016, the story may start to change.
    Aug 12 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Growth Group: Profiting From The Land Of Luxury Blue Sky Promise [View article]
    Any one making an investment in Mongolia needs to be very very careful and realize that their is a lot of risk.
    The biggest problem in Mongolia is a government that regardless of what they may claim is not very foriegn investment/ foriegn business friendly, suffers from a high degree of corruption, and has a tenancy to do an about face on economic policy with no reason or rhyme. The result of these government problems has been that foriegn investment has dropped drastically, foriegn currency reserves are dangerously low and the country is getting close to needing an IMF bail out.
    An example of the problems in Mongolia can be found by looking at Rio Tinto's large mining development with Turquoises Hill Resources in the south Gobi Desert. Rio Tinto has postponed development of phase 2 of this project due to disputes with the Mongolian government. This is a huge deposit which when fully developed would account for 30% of Mongolian GDP and phase 2 is required to unlock 80% of the value of this deposit (underground part of the mine). Yet the GOM continues to cause issues with moving forward. Their are many other companies that have also had problems due to the GOM and Mongolian corruption - many covered in SA article.
    A better option for those looking at investing in Mongolia would in my opinion be to wait to see what happens during the upcoming 2016 election. The current government that has done nothing but drive the economy into the ground and chase foriegn investors away should hopefully get booted out and be replaced with a more business friendly government.

    The above is my opinion based on following the political and economic situation in Mongolia for about 10 years now.
    Aug 12 03:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone carbon pollution could be more than estimated, study says [View news story]
    what you have here is another bogus junk study by a biased group that should be tossed in the trash can. The reality is that that not building the pipeline is more harmful to the environment than building it. The oil will be produced regardless and the alternate shipping methods (rail, increased capacity on older pipe lines etc) are less safe and more carbon intensive that this new state of the art pipeline.
    Aug 11 10:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Betting On ArcelorMittal Is A Bad Idea [View article]
    With MT, I see more positives than negatives and view the current weakness as a buying opportunity. I am long MT recently bought in near current price. There are considerable one time charges in the first half of the year results (to the tune of around 400 million). This in itself tells you that the future should be better all things being equal.
    MT because of their world wide presence is in a unique situation that IMO gives them some good advantages over other in the integrated steel business. The purchase of Thyssens Atlantic sea board plant is an example (cost Thyssen 14 billion to build - bought by MT and partner for 1.5 billion). It made no sense for Thyssen because it was dependent on Brazilian slab which went from being among the cheapest in the world to among the most expensive. It makes a lot of sense for MT as they can source slab from many different places. My understanding is that under MT this plant is improving with operating rates approaching 80% and IMO it will be quit profitable for MT.
    They have used the slow down in the steel market to rationalize operations throughout the world, cut costs and make selective investments at attractive prices. These actions should reap considerable rewards going forward.
    With Iron ore, in North America I believe unlike Asia, they are still using yearly contracts and as well, you have North American pricing as opposed to Asian pricing. The prices do follow each other as far as up and down are concerned but are different due to shipping costs, landlocked production etc.. For MT, the fact that they are buying on contract for their furnaces means that changes in ore prices have a lagging effect on the cost of iron production. Its a double edged sword which means that during falling ore prices, the furnaces are consuming more expensive iron ore for a while and during rising prices, the furnaces enjoy cheaper ore for a while. In the long run, its a wash and the only thing that really counts at any point in time as far as Iron ore is concerned is cost of producing it as opposed to selling price.(In other words - is it profitable or not) Note that there are accounting rules around internal company sales be it iron ore ore anything else - basically these sales have to be done at comparable market prices at the time of the sale.
    MT is also in a good position to supply its European operations with Iron ore from eastern Canada which would displace the expensive ore these operations currently use. This puts Iron ore profits even if reduced in MT's pockets rather than someone else. Also increasing capacity of the existing mines should lower per ton costs as they will be utilizing a lot of existing infrastructure thus driving efficiencies.
    MT produces over 20 million tons of steel a quarter and looks at the most cost effective way of supplying its furnaces with iron ore and if that means buying from another producer while it sells its own production to someone else, then that is what they will do. The bottom line is that they produce far more steel than they produce Iron ore and are in a unique position to further grow iron ore production and use it to maximize efficiencies within their own operation because of their global presence.

    Although it make take some time, I see far more positives with MT than negatives.
    JMO
    Aug 8 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ArcelorMittal: Why I Hold What I Hold [View article]
    With Iron ore, in North America I believe unlike Asia, they are still using yearly contracts and as well, you have North American pricing as opposed to Asian pricing. The prices do follow each other as far as up and down are concerned but are different due to shipping costs, landlocked production etc.. For MT, the fact that they are buying on contract for their furnaces means that changes in ore prices have a lagging effect on the cost of iron production. Its a double edged sword which means that during falling ore prices, the furnaces are consuming more expensive iron ore for a while and during rising prices, the furnaces enjoy cheaper ore for a while. In the long run, its a wash and the only thing that really counts at any point in time as far as Iron ore is concerned is cost of producing it as opposed to selling price.(In other words - is it profitable or not) Note that there are accounting rules around internal company sales be it iron ore ore anything else - basically these sales have to be done at comparable market prices at the time of the sale. JMO
    Aug 6 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ArcelorMittal: Why I Hold What I Hold [View article]
    Its not as straight forward as what you state. MT produces over 20 million tons of steel a quarter. MT looks at the most cost effective way of supplying its furnaces with iron ore and if that means buying from another producer while it sells its own production to someone else, then that is what they will do. The bottom line is that they produce far more steel than they produce Iron ore. There are also accounting rules for how they have to account for internal sales. The short of it is that they have to charge their own companies comparable prices to the market rates. More important to the equation is MT's cost of producing iron ore. As long as it is less than the selling price, then it is an overal positive for them. JMO
    Aug 6 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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