Seeking Alpha

marpy

marpy
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View marpy's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Canadian Banks Cannot Escape The Effects Of A Housing Market Bubble And A Slowing Economy [View article]
    Unlike the U.S. Canada is not getting caught with its pants down as housing slows. The government has been tightening mortgage regulations for a number of years now. Increased down payments and lower amortizations have been the order of the day and no NINJA mortgages in Canada. Housing will cool off as it needs to but Canada is well prepared for it. Some of the Canadian banks also have very large U.S. divisions which should help take up any slack in Canadian housing. JMO
    Jun 19 10:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A 50% cut in Petrominerales' (PMGLF.PK) market value has left its equity and net debt valued at the cheapest multiple to profit among any oil and gas explorer in the world with a market value higher than $250M, according to Bloomberg, which speculates its reserves, estimated at 40M-plus barrels of mostly high-quality light oil, could attract suitors such as Enbridge (ENB), TransCanada (TRP) or Pacific Rubiales (PEGFF.PK). [View news story]
    Oil in Columbia!!! I would not touch it with a 10 foot pole!!! ENB and TRP are large pipeline and energy service and infrastructure companies that do not own any oil or gas production so fat chance they would be interested in acquiring any.
    Jun 18 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollarama Is Having A Sale [View article]
    When selling dollar items they had virtually no competition as Walmart and Canadian Tire and others had no interest in this market. Now that they are selling more expensive products, all the Walmarts and Canadian Tire like stores are competition for them and in many cases offer similar products for cheaper. IMO - They are just not that good.
    Jun 13 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newly appointed Encana (ECA -1%) CEO Doug Settles brings a much-needed outsider's perspective which could make it easier to cut expenses and change the clubby culture, but Canaccord's Phil Skolnick does not see a quick turnaround: “Investors must now wait for a strategy update which is likely to take months to formulate and then longer to execute." [View news story]
    Considering what the price of natural gas has been through, they have not IMO done so bad to date. I suspect that the cost cutting may come quicker than people may think as a lot of it is fairly easily implemented (especially by an outsider). ECA may surprise on the upside. -JMO
    Jun 12 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks broadly tumble in late-morning trade, the S&P 500 (SPY -0.8%), the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -0.8%), and the Dow (DIA, DOG) off triple-digits. The financial sector (XLF -1.3%) leads the way, headed by a 2.1% decline in Citigroup. Higher interest rates may be the worry, but the stock market's fall pretty much means they're not coming. The 10-year Treasury yield slips 3 bps to 2.10%. TLT +1%, TBT -1.8%[View news story]
    The big problem is Obama and his administration. They have been highjacked by lefties and environmentalists who know how to speed money but nothing about making money and promoting the economy!!!!!
    Jun 5 01:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The wrangling over the Keystone pipeline (TRP) is starting to look puny vs. other obstacles Canadian oil sands face, including Latin American competition, retrofitting Gulf of Mexico refineries to process lighter crude from elsewhere, and B.C.'s rejection of the Northern Gateway pipeline (ENB). To push Alberta’s oil sands production to the anticipated 3M bbl/day, "another strategic pipeline option will be needed," Eurasia Group says. [View news story]
    BC has not rejected the Northern Gateway pipeline. What the BC government has said was that they were not satisfied with what Enbridge has put forward to address environmental and safety issues to date. In other words "improvements are needed before we consider approval".
    Jun 4 10:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Oil Sands Producers The New 'Tobacco' Companies? [View article]
    In the oil sands space, I would look at Cenovios Energy (CVE). They produce using steam injection, produce more than enough natural gas to provide their own energy input, have an interest in 2 large refineries and costs around $30 per barrel. They are also growing production every year. I am long CVE.
    Jun 2 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of Montreal's Earnings Call May Be Lone Bright Spot On Bleakest Of Horizons [View article]
    Note that the 2.99% rate is available for mortgages with a 25 year amortization and that the government has been tightening up on the amortization for some time now so that you can only get 30 years max in most cases. This provides a sizable cushion in the case of a souring economy as increasing the amortization period would give people substantial leeway if their economic situation worsened. The tighter mortgage rules plus no stupidity like NINJA mortgages and 40 year mortgages means that Canada's market is no where close to as bad a shape as the US market was in 2008. It is actually being well manages.
    May 29 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A cancellation or continuing delay of the Keystone XL pipeline (TRP) could endanger more than $9B of oil sands investment over the next seven years, RBC says, with U.S. construction, engineering and project management companies affected more than Canadian contractors since most of the pipeline is being constructed in the U.S. [View news story]
    On the American side, construction jobs, maintenance jobs, taxes, fee's to land owners and energy independence would also be negatively impacted,
    May 28 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Natural Gas Prices Weigh Heavily On Encana [View article]
    Encana has surprised on the upside over the past year or so profit wise. Their strategy has also shifted to drilling their most profitable dry gas acreage, lowering costs and drilling for profitable oil and liquids. With the large land position that they have they should be able to keep the company profitable and do this for quite some time. It also looks like natural gas has turned the corner as we are at $4.00 plus gas as opposed to the sub $3.00 we were at not to long ago, rig count is way down and the US has started to approve exported of LNG. As such I would be and am a buyer of ECA rather than a seller. A bonus with ECA is the large Canadian land and production division which is ready to to feed the Canadian LNG export market.
    May 27 08:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. State Department takes the unusual step of releasing publicly the feedback it received about the controversial Keystone XL pipeline (TRP) in response to its draft environmental report. Well represented in the first batch of ~1.2M total comments are green groups like Tar Sands Action and the Sierra Club as well as advocacy groups like Americans for Tax Reform and the Institute for Energy Research. [View news story]
    The greens think that they can bully America into doing what they want even though they are far from representative of the American people. It is all part of their game of bullying, badgering, overloading the system with misinformation and junk science. The sad thing is that it looks like a big chunk of the Obama administration actually buys their crap and America is paying the price in lost jobs and lost opportunity for energy independence. The Obama administration needs to wake up here!!!!!!
    May 25 12:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters’ Robert Campbell thinks Keystone XL (TRP) has become a victim of political posturing and says a rival plan, ETP's Trunkline, is being held to a far lower standard thanks to an incoherent U.S. environmental policy. But if a pipeline isn’t built, crude will move by more carbon intensive methods that also are susceptible to accidents. Indeed, moving oil by road or rail is no longer seen as a stopgap until pipelines are built. [View news story]
    And those who suffer as a result of the political posturing are the American people who have to do without the jobs and energy independence that this pipeline would bring and put up with the increased rail traffic and pollution that the diesel belching locomotives that haul the oil produce. The greens seem to be holding Obama and in turn the American people hostage on this subject. What Obama needs to figure out is that the greens are far from representative of the American people and that their blind ideologically driven attack on pipelines do a lot more harm that good. America is to dependent on none friendly nations for its energy and needs to move towards lowering this dependance!!!
    May 25 12:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips And Canada's Oil Sands: Everything You Need To Know [View article]
    CVE has among the lowest production costs in the industry at around $30 per barrel. They also produce more natural gas than they use in their oil sands extraction process and so you could say they are hedged against increased energy prices. They pay a dividend of around 3% based on current price. They also have ownership in 2 large refineries giving them exposure to that part of the business as well. I am long CVE and view them as an excellent vehicle for those looking to invest in the Canadian oil sands.
    May 25 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Republican-controlled House last night approved a bill saying a presidential permit was not needed to approve the Canada-to-Nebraska leg of the Keystone XL pipeline (TRP), but the vote may have emboldened opposition, as 50 fewer Democrats backed the bill than a similar one a year ago. The bill's fate in the Senate is uncertain, and Pres. Obama has promised a veto. [View news story]
    Obama is being held hostage by the greens and he in turn is holding up progress in Americas move towards energy independence and the creation of thousands of well paying jobs. In the mean time America continues to buy oil which is actually dirtier from Venezuela and the middle east. This also puts billions in the pockets of regimes that are anti American. The greens - they do not care about anything other than their blind ideological cause!
    May 23 09:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto Getting Lean And Mean As First Oyu Tolgoi Shipments Approach [View article]
    "The overall problem is the government of Mongolia over-promised the timing of results to its people," This is not in my opinion correct. The overall problem has always been the government of Mongolia - their unstable legislation on mining and foreign investment, passing or proposing legislation that is anti mining and anti foreign investment, and the degree of corruption within the government and the country. If not for the government of Mongolia, OT would have been in production at least 3 years ago. These problems have been well documented both in the media and SA.

    As for " governmental risk concerning Oyu Tolgoi" -it has historically had high points and low points - we are currently approaching a low point but there is nothing that would indicate that this could not change in the future based on the whim of a newly elected government (roughly 3 years till next election) or an about face on the part of the current government (as has happened a number of times before).
    May 21 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
595 Comments
976 Likes