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  • Crude Oil Is Seeing Improving Fundamentals [View article]
    Your statement "Lastly, I'll like point out that despite what you might read, US oil production peaked in April 2015. Production has fallen by ~300,000 bpd, with this decline likely to accelerate going forward." says it all.

    As for lenders willing to lend to shale producers in this environment, one would think that that only the better producers in good financial shape qualify here and so many producers would not have access to funds.

    The inventory increases are mainly driven by imports and I would think that keeping inventories high is part of the opec strategy. As hedges dry up and financing gets tight, their will be no relief for the producers for a good while going forward unless production drops further.

    Sep 8, 2015. 10:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: World Stocks Surge Ahead [View article]
    Reality is that in many markets around the world, the bear market has been alive and well for quite some time and is probably nearing the end.Europe has turned the corner, America is doing OK and China is finding its bottom. The "talking head" numbers for China really are out to lunch as in dollar terms imports may be down but with the drop and prices and currency moves, in volume terms from what I can see, they are up which means that their factories are busier than many would lead us to believe.
    IMO some real positive growth is just starting to happen.
    Sep 8, 2015. 10:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada's Big 5 Banks Reap Rewards Of Systemic Advantages [View article]
    IMO Concentrating risk in non-Big Bank financial institutions, is actually very positive for the Canadian Economy. The back bone of any modern economy is its big bank banking system and so by protecting it, you protect your economy. In nbad economic times, your big banks should be able to stay strong enough to help dmpen the slow down and smooth it out.
    Sep 7, 2015. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiat Chrysler flags GM merger as 'high priority' [View news story]
    Marchioni needs to take a hike - it would be a bad deal for GM and an even worse deal for the consumer.
    Sep 7, 2015. 07:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks end week lower amid jitters over China, potential rate hike [View news story]
    More than anything else. - Friday was a case of low volume due to the upcoming long weekend with no one willing to buy much to hold over the 3 days due to international concerns.

    Sep 5, 2015. 09:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • M&A Daily: Where Do HP's Non-Core Assets Come From? [View article]
    The value of TRQ is much higher than this article would indicate (north of $20 per share IMO) The reason for its currently trading at $3 is due to a very business unfriendly government. This government has made Mongolia and its people a lot poorer and with a 2016 election on the horizon, their is a good chance that a new more business friendly government will take over. This deposit is a world class deposit that when in full production will be among the largest gold/ base metal producer in the world as has huge (100 year) reserves.
    Most of the shares not owned by Rio Tinto are owned by large institutions who know the value and so Rio Tinto will not be getting it for a fire sale price.

    JMO from having followed this story for 10 years.
    Sep 4, 2015. 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: All Eyes On Jobs [View article]
    The employment numbers by themselves are just a small part of the puzzle as without knowing how people have given up looking for work, are retired, are not looking for work because they are in school and how many people actually found jobs including what the quality of the jobs were, you really can not get a good picture of what is going on.
    I have yet to find a source that does a good job of reporting all the pertinent statistics.
    Sep 4, 2015. 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian crude-by-rail showing signs of life [View news story]
    Rail will always be the swing transportation method for oil. the cheapest option is pipeline and so this will be the first choice for shippers and rail shipping will dependent on the price of oil and price differential between WCS and WTI. Cenovus got this terminal for a fraction of what it cost to build so even as a swing shipper, they should do quite well with it. Between their own oil and others oil, they should have lots off business.

    Sep 4, 2015. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The OPEC Catalyst As U.S. Production Slowly Declines [View article]
    Obama needs to wake up and realize that his attack on Canadian oil and the Keystone pipeline is not very smart from a US security perspective.
    Sep 4, 2015. 08:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Markets Rally Ahead Of ECB Policy Meeting [View article]
    Sort off like trying to get on the boat after its already sailed!!;-)
    Sep 3, 2015. 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto likely to buy out Turquoise Hill relatively soon, CIBC says [View news story]
    Most of the shares of TRQ not owned by Rio Tinto are owned by large institutions that are quite aware of the value of this deposit. As such, Rio will have to pay a reasonable price. If not happy with what is offered, the minority can also ask for an independent valuation (this has been done many times before). Regardless, Rio Tinto is highly unlikely to act till after the 2016 election providing the results of this election result in a pro development government.
    Sep 3, 2015. 08:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The OPEC Catalyst As U.S. Production Slowly Declines [View article]
    A couple of items come to mind here:

    -Most countries including members of OPEC are not going to shoot themselves in the foot so to speak.

    -The Saudis and their Gulf allies are in very good financial shape and between borrowing power (most have no debit and are viewed as reasonable credit risks) and their monetary war chests can last 10 years at current oil prices no problem.

    - yes their is political turmoil in the middle east but no more so than when oil was over $100 per barrel. The Saudis and friends in the Gulf can cut all sorts of discretionary spending and impose minimal targeted price increases that will not overly affect their people. This means that looking at last years budgets to determine hurt is meaningless.

    - It could be argued that lower oil prices actually decreases political turmoil in the middle east as it gives ISSIS and Iran less money to feed towards it.

    - The most efficient shale producers holding good acreage and in good financial shape can get by at sub $50 oil but their are many that can not.They will be starting to fall as their future hedges are rolling off and the futures market is no longer providing much price protection.

    - Iran is broke and needs money for its people and all its political meddling as such I do not see it starting an oil war where it pumps twice as much to make the same amount of money as it currently does or less.

    - The Likes of Venezuela are really irrelevant to the situation. They can not pump any more than they are, have no cash reserves and minimal power within OPEC. In other words they are neutered and actually political upheaval in the Likes of Venezuela would play into Saudi hands as it would lead to increased prices without the Saudis lowering production and have minimal if any political impact in the middle east.

    I think the Saudis and friends are in a much stronger position than many would like to give them credit for.

    Sep 2, 2015. 02:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Encana: Vast Asset Portfolio Is A Source Of Funds, But Divestiture Proceeds May Disappoint [View article]
    As the sale of the Haynesville assets shows, they seem to be quite good at unlocking value in what they sell. Hopefully they can keep this up!
    Sep 1, 2015. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Growth Concerns Again Test Stocks - SPX Support Waits At 1922 [View article]
    IMO When trying to figure out what is going on in China it is better to look at secondary data like imports of raw materials and money flow rather than the numbers China issues. This secondary data from sources like Platts for raw materials, paints a better picture than what the market is saying as imports are up. Although they may just be taking advantage of low prices, imports of raw materials tend to be a leading indicator because they will eventually be processed into finished goods. Even when you consider the devaluation of most currencies against US and Chinese currency, it is understandable why China is having a harder time exporting. This tide in places like the Eurozone should soon start to turn as their economic issues are sorted out.
    To much emphasis is also put on the Chinese stock market as in comparison to the Chinese economy it is relatively small and unsophisticated with most stock owned by individual investors.
    People are also looking at steel consumption in China which is down as the country shifts from an economy where most growth comes from export and building/ infrastructure development to one focused on internal consumption. based on the shifts China is making, this drop in steel consumption should be expected and one would think that the Chinese industry would (if they are not expecting further growth down the road) eventually cut old inefficient production. As such, how China handles the current steel glut will also be very telling.
    China may not be in nearly as bad a shape as the market thinks and it could turn very quickly.

    Sep 1, 2015. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: It's Go Time [View article]
    Old farmers Almanac does it for me as "the squirrels really do know best when it comes to the weather".
    Aug 31, 2015. 06:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment