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  • Encana to sell Jonah field operations to TPG Capital for $1.8B [View news story]
    ECA is a very asset rich company and I suspect to see more deals designed to unlock value going forward. JMO
    Mar 31 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Torstar's Ongoing Value Trap [View article]
    Market cap at around current price is around 475 million dollars. Torstar owns a lot of the real state that its papers/ business operate out of and it owns quite a few papers. Just the value of its real estate in Toronto and area could be worth more than its current market cap. Also it is still a profitable company even if its not growing. They have also not done a very good job of making the operation more efficient - still lots of little guarded empires that could be stream lined and made more efficient from what I see. - lots of opportunity to do things more efficiently. I would think that their is a lot of value to be unlocked here.

    JMO
    Mar 31 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Seeking Alpha Is Doing To Prevent Paid Stock Promotion [View article]
    It is good to see that SA is keeping an eye on things and I would hope that they do not let their guard down and actually step up the auditing and checking. SA has a excellent reputation and is one of the sites I visit regularly. My experience does though tell me that you do need to know something about the stock or subject you are reading about. Their are some very good authors here but their are also some that I would classify in the learning or up and coming category. Even when the author is completely up front (and I believe most on SA are) a lot is dependent on opinion and how and which facts are presented as well as the knowledge depth of the author. When it comes to depth of knowledge, some of the cementers have a better understanding than the Authors which is why you see some authors getting called up big time on what they write and getting what I call "chased out of town"

    JMO
    Mar 28 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turquoise Hill Announces Financial Results and Review of Operations for 2013 [View article]
    Repeat post for those who may not look at announcements of upcoming earnings announcements.

    Good story on what is going on in Mongolia with respect to TRQ and also shows how China seems to have made a deal to open up its boarders in turn for exporting some heavy duty pollution to Mongolia (4 coal gassification plants that will no doubt supply China.) also gives some incite with respect to how the investment world views the government and specifically the mining minister.


    http://on.ft.com/1ix6K1j


    ft.com > Comment > Blogs >
    FT Alphaville


    Turquoise — still the colour of money in Mongolia?
    Dan McCrum | Mar 25 13:25 | Comment | Share


    Decision time approaches for Mongolia, Rio Tinto and Turquoise Hill on Oyu Tolgoi, the enormous copper mining project that could one day represent about a third of the landlocked nation’s economy.


    Since we reported that Mongolia’s yet to be created sovereign wealth fund could take an equity stake in Turquoise (which releases earnings after the close in Toronto on Tuesday), one deadline has been extended, the mining minister has done his best to wind up investors, China has reasserted itself and Tony Blair has popped up.


    All of which means that a deal to start work on the underground part of the mine (phase II), funded by $4bn of loans by commercial banks and multilateral lenders, is very close. But it remains caught up in Mongolian politics, and may not hit the March 31 deadline on which the funding hangs.


    To deal with those loans first. The agreement with the commercial banks is good until Monday. The World Bank’s International Finance Corporation and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development had set a February 24th deadline for their involvement, but this was kicked out to March 31.


    Rio and a team of Mongolian negotiators led by a former politician have pretty much nailed down the terms of their agreement, and could have some sort of memorandum of understanding and completed feasibility study ready to go by Monday.


    We also understand that Tony Blair — who has form in helping big mining deals get past a late-stage impasse — has told the Mongolians that the deal is fair, although in an unofficial capacity only. Officially he is in the country advising on a governance project.


    However Rio needs/wants someone with clout to sign the agreement, such as the prime minister, before they start digging on this. Which brings us to the mining minister, Gankhuyag Davaajav.


    He was in Toronto this month to talk up the country at a mining conference, the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada, with a keynote address that gives a sense of the importance of the project to an economy that is exploding:


    But then the minister, an unapologetic resource nationalist, had a series of meetings with investors. They didn’t go so well. Sample reaction quote:


    He really went out of his way to be a dickhead.


    When Gankhuyag was first appointed he said he would renegotiate the underlying investment agreement that specifies the ownership and royalty structure for the mine, or resign. Rio has point blank refused, and he has since rowed back from that, but continues to be noisily opposed.


    While not actually being part of the negotiations, the mining minister represents a significant political constituency that is seen in some quarters as an obstacle to getting the deal done.


    Further stirring the pot, Mongolia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Bold Luvsanvandan appeared in Sydney last week and told Reuters that it will all come together when the next parliamentary session starts on April 5. While not involved in negotiations, he is in the cabinet, but then again has since rowed back from that statement as a gaffe, according to locals.


    So what is clear is that the Mongolian political situation is not. Prime Minister Norovyn Altankhuyag seems likely to face a no confidence challenge when parliament returns. One way to avoid taking the blame for signing or not signing an Oyu Tolgoi deal — he’ll be attacked either way — would be to present it to parliament for approval.


    That way the country’s politicians have to hold hands and jump together. Political victory and happy Rio.


    However, parliament can only do that after March 31. If we were a risk officer at commercial bank, we might look at what has happened to Mongolian sovereign risk, interest rates, emerging market risk premiums and perceptions of China in the last year, and decide that our terms have changed. For example, the yield on sovereign bonds which Mongolia issued internationally has risen to 7 per cent, from 4.8 per cent a year ago. (“Oyu Tolgoi is the largest financial undertaking in Mongolia’s history,” the bond’s prospectus said in 2012.)


    Change the cost of capital, and might y0u then affect the feasibility study on which the Mongolians appear to place a lot of stock? The whole project is delayed once more.


    Meanwhile the importance of the mine to the future of the economy has lessened as China has opened its checkbook to help out a neighbour. The PBoC has doubled its swap line, to about $3.2bn, removing the risk of foreign currency liquidity problems for the government. China also plans to build four coal to gas plants in the country, at an estimated cost in the region of $30bn (or two years’ worth of current GDP).


    The Turquoise Hill share price still remains one of the best indicators for investor sentiment towards Mongolia. Were the country’s sovereign wealth fund to take an equity stake, it would be an important signal about future property rights, the country’s “third neighbour” policy (please don’t leave us reliant on Russia and China, developed world) and how Rio will treat minority shareholders.


    But while those conversations continue, we hear from sources close to the government that no one really has the first idea what to do with the sovereign wealth fund when it finally starts to get royalties.


    And finally, when it comes to valuing Turquoise there is plenty of fun to be had. We got some pushback when we passed on a suggested C$30 plus take out value for the 49.5 per cent Rio doesn’t already own.


    We’re told that to get to a ballpark near that requires some enthusiasm for future projects at a mine which could have a 50 (70?) year productive life — enthusiasm that a patient corporate buyer might price in a way short term investors have not. (The share price is C$3.69).


    But then the copper this mine produces will be 80km from the Chinese border with nowhere else to go (for now). We think it is unlikely to be priced according whatever is happening at the LME, so good luck forecasting those particular dynamics.
    Mar 26 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turquoise Hill to Announce Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2013 Financial Results on March 26, 2014 [View article]
    Good story on what is going on in Mongolia with respect to TRQ and also shows how China seems to have made a deal to open up its boarders in turn for exporting some heavy duty pollution to Mongolia (4 coal gassification plants that will no doubt supply China.


    http://on.ft.com/1ix6K1j


    ft.com > Comment > Blogs >
    FT Alphaville


    Turquoise — still the colour of money in Mongolia?
    Dan McCrum | Mar 25 13:25 | Comment | Share


    Decision time approaches for Mongolia, Rio Tinto and Turquoise Hill on Oyu Tolgoi, the enormous copper mining project that could one day represent about a third of the landlocked nation’s economy.


    Since we reported that Mongolia’s yet to be created sovereign wealth fund could take an equity stake in Turquoise (which releases earnings after the close in Toronto on Tuesday), one deadline has been extended, the mining minister has done his best to wind up investors, China has reasserted itself and Tony Blair has popped up.


    All of which means that a deal to start work on the underground part of the mine (phase II), funded by $4bn of loans by commercial banks and multilateral lenders, is very close. But it remains caught up in Mongolian politics, and may not hit the March 31 deadline on which the funding hangs.


    To deal with those loans first. The agreement with the commercial banks is good until Monday. The World Bank’s International Finance Corporation and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development had set a February 24th deadline for their involvement, but this was kicked out to March 31.


    Rio and a team of Mongolian negotiators led by a former politician have pretty much nailed down the terms of their agreement, and could have some sort of memorandum of understanding and completed feasibility study ready to go by Monday.


    We also understand that Tony Blair — who has form in helping big mining deals get past a late-stage impasse — has told the Mongolians that the deal is fair, although in an unofficial capacity only. Officially he is in the country advising on a governance project.


    However Rio needs/wants someone with clout to sign the agreement, such as the prime minister, before they start digging on this. Which brings us to the mining minister, Gankhuyag Davaajav.


    He was in Toronto this month to talk up the country at a mining conference, the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada, with a keynote address that gives a sense of the importance of the project to an economy that is exploding:


    But then the minister, an unapologetic resource nationalist, had a series of meetings with investors. They didn’t go so well. Sample reaction quote:


    He really went out of his way to be a dickhead.


    When Gankhuyag was first appointed he said he would renegotiate the underlying investment agreement that specifies the ownership and royalty structure for the mine, or resign. Rio has point blank refused, and he has since rowed back from that, but continues to be noisily opposed.


    While not actually being part of the negotiations, the mining minister represents a significant political constituency that is seen in some quarters as an obstacle to getting the deal done.


    Further stirring the pot, Mongolia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Bold Luvsanvandan appeared in Sydney last week and told Reuters that it will all come together when the next parliamentary session starts on April 5. While not involved in negotiations, he is in the cabinet, but then again has since rowed back from that statement as a gaffe, according to locals.


    So what is clear is that the Mongolian political situation is not. Prime Minister Norovyn Altankhuyag seems likely to face a no confidence challenge when parliament returns. One way to avoid taking the blame for signing or not signing an Oyu Tolgoi deal — he’ll be attacked either way — would be to present it to parliament for approval.


    That way the country’s politicians have to hold hands and jump together. Political victory and happy Rio.


    However, parliament can only do that after March 31. If we were a risk officer at commercial bank, we might look at what has happened to Mongolian sovereign risk, interest rates, emerging market risk premiums and perceptions of China in the last year, and decide that our terms have changed. For example, the yield on sovereign bonds which Mongolia issued internationally has risen to 7 per cent, from 4.8 per cent a year ago. (“Oyu Tolgoi is the largest financial undertaking in Mongolia’s history,” the bond’s prospectus said in 2012.)


    Change the cost of capital, and might y0u then affect the feasibility study on which the Mongolians appear to place a lot of stock? The whole project is delayed once more.


    Meanwhile the importance of the mine to the future of the economy has lessened as China has opened its checkbook to help out a neighbour. The PBoC has doubled its swap line, to about $3.2bn, removing the risk of foreign currency liquidity problems for the government. China also plans to build four coal to gas plants in the country, at an estimated cost in the region of $30bn (or two years’ worth of current GDP).


    The Turquoise Hill share price still remains one of the best indicators for investor sentiment towards Mongolia. Were the country’s sovereign wealth fund to take an equity stake, it would be an important signal about future property rights, the country’s “third neighbour” policy (please don’t leave us reliant on Russia and China, developed world) and how Rio will treat minority shareholders.


    But while those conversations continue, we hear from sources close to the government that no one really has the first idea what to do with the sovereign wealth fund when it finally starts to get royalties.


    And finally, when it comes to valuing Turquoise there is plenty of fun to be had. We got some pushback when we passed on a suggested C$30 plus take out value for the 49.5 per cent Rio doesn’t already own.


    We’re told that to get to a ballpark near that requires some enthusiasm for future projects at a mine which could have a 50 (70?) year productive life — enthusiasm that a patient corporate buyer might price in a way short term investors have not. (The share price is C$3.69).


    But then the copper this mine produces will be 80km from the Chinese border with nowhere else to go (for now). We think it is unlikely to be priced according whatever is happening at the LME, so good luck forecasting those particular dynamics.
    Mar 25 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notable earnings before Wednesday’s open [View news story]
    Good story on what is going on in Mongolia with respect to TRQ and also shows how China seems to have made a deal to open up its boarders in turn for exporting some heavy duty pollution to Mongolia (4 coal gassification plants that will no doubt supply China.

    http://on.ft.com/1ix6K1j

    ft.com > Comment > Blogs >
    FT Alphaville


    Turquoise — still the colour of money in Mongolia?
    Dan McCrum | Mar 25 13:25 | Comment | Share

    Decision time approaches for Mongolia, Rio Tinto and Turquoise Hill on Oyu Tolgoi, the enormous copper mining project that could one day represent about a third of the landlocked nation’s economy.

    Since we reported that Mongolia’s yet to be created sovereign wealth fund could take an equity stake in Turquoise (which releases earnings after the close in Toronto on Tuesday), one deadline has been extended, the mining minister has done his best to wind up investors, China has reasserted itself and Tony Blair has popped up.

    All of which means that a deal to start work on the underground part of the mine (phase II), funded by $4bn of loans by commercial banks and multilateral lenders, is very close. But it remains caught up in Mongolian politics, and may not hit the March 31 deadline on which the funding hangs.

    To deal with those loans first. The agreement with the commercial banks is good until Monday. The World Bank’s International Finance Corporation and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development had set a February 24th deadline for their involvement, but this was kicked out to March 31.

    Rio and a team of Mongolian negotiators led by a former politician have pretty much nailed down the terms of their agreement, and could have some sort of memorandum of understanding and completed feasibility study ready to go by Monday.

    We also understand that Tony Blair — who has form in helping big mining deals get past a late-stage impasse — has told the Mongolians that the deal is fair, although in an unofficial capacity only. Officially he is in the country advising on a governance project.

    However Rio needs/wants someone with clout to sign the agreement, such as the prime minister, before they start digging on this. Which brings us to the mining minister, Gankhuyag Davaajav.

    He was in Toronto this month to talk up the country at a mining conference, the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada, with a keynote address that gives a sense of the importance of the project to an economy that is exploding:

    But then the minister, an unapologetic resource nationalist, had a series of meetings with investors. They didn’t go so well. Sample reaction quote:

    He really went out of his way to be a dickhead.

    When Gankhuyag was first appointed he said he would renegotiate the underlying investment agreement that specifies the ownership and royalty structure for the mine, or resign. Rio has point blank refused, and he has since rowed back from that, but continues to be noisily opposed.

    While not actually being part of the negotiations, the mining minister represents a significant political constituency that is seen in some quarters as an obstacle to getting the deal done.

    Further stirring the pot, Mongolia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Bold Luvsanvandan appeared in Sydney last week and told Reuters that it will all come together when the next parliamentary session starts on April 5. While not involved in negotiations, he is in the cabinet, but then again has since rowed back from that statement as a gaffe, according to locals.

    So what is clear is that the Mongolian political situation is not. Prime Minister Norovyn Altankhuyag seems likely to face a no confidence challenge when parliament returns. One way to avoid taking the blame for signing or not signing an Oyu Tolgoi deal — he’ll be attacked either way — would be to present it to parliament for approval.

    That way the country’s politicians have to hold hands and jump together. Political victory and happy Rio.

    However, parliament can only do that after March 31. If we were a risk officer at commercial bank, we might look at what has happened to Mongolian sovereign risk, interest rates, emerging market risk premiums and perceptions of China in the last year, and decide that our terms have changed. For example, the yield on sovereign bonds which Mongolia issued internationally has risen to 7 per cent, from 4.8 per cent a year ago. (“Oyu Tolgoi is the largest financial undertaking in Mongolia’s history,” the bond’s prospectus said in 2012.)

    Change the cost of capital, and might y0u then affect the feasibility study on which the Mongolians appear to place a lot of stock? The whole project is delayed once more.

    Meanwhile the importance of the mine to the future of the economy has lessened as China has opened its checkbook to help out a neighbour. The PBoC has doubled its swap line, to about $3.2bn, removing the risk of foreign currency liquidity problems for the government. China also plans to build four coal to gas plants in the country, at an estimated cost in the region of $30bn (or two years’ worth of current GDP).

    The Turquoise Hill share price still remains one of the best indicators for investor sentiment towards Mongolia. Were the country’s sovereign wealth fund to take an equity stake, it would be an important signal about future property rights, the country’s “third neighbour” policy (please don’t leave us reliant on Russia and China, developed world) and how Rio will treat minority shareholders.

    But while those conversations continue, we hear from sources close to the government that no one really has the first idea what to do with the sovereign wealth fund when it finally starts to get royalties.

    And finally, when it comes to valuing Turquoise there is plenty of fun to be had. We got some pushback when we passed on a suggested C$30 plus take out value for the 49.5 per cent Rio doesn’t already own.

    We’re told that to get to a ballpark near that requires some enthusiasm for future projects at a mine which could have a 50 (70?) year productive life — enthusiasm that a patient corporate buyer might price in a way short term investors have not. (The share price is C$3.69).

    But then the copper this mine produces will be 80km from the Chinese border with nowhere else to go (for now). We think it is unlikely to be priced according whatever is happening at the LME, so good luck forecasting those particular dynamics.
    Mar 25 11:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    The thinking of North America being able to supply Europe with most of its energy amounts to crap anyway. The increase in North American output of energy (with the exception of increased oil sands production) has been mostly from shale gas and tight oil. Both of these sources are among the most expensive sources of carbon based energy and the production wells also have very high decline rates. This tells me that trying to supply Europe would take a huge and impossible effort that would be extremely expensive and would not last long. Russia on the other hand is producing most of its energy from conventional long life fields that are very cheap to operate. The big winners of this attempt would be Russia, China and the far east as they would welcome any additional Russian energy and Russia would get to develop new markets giving it that much more of an upper hand in the energy game.
    Also not that anything the west is doing now has nothing to do with Crimea and everything to do with putting a damper on Russia's next move. The one thing for certain is that there will be a next move.

    JMO
    Mar 25 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Threat To Canada's Oil Sands Boom [View article]
    Even by your numbers - like I said - take Quebec out of the picture and in the rest of Canada its a different story and Quebec exports a lot of its power south. Quebec also did a lot of environmental damage with the huge man made lakes built for that hydro. Also you need to find better sources than Wikipedia. ;-)
    Mar 23 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Most Energy East pipeline oil will go overseas, new report claims [View news story]
    Fossil you again post erroneous or biased data - just the 2 big refineries in Quebec and and Irving refinery in New Brunswick process over 1 million barrels a day. - That is just 3 refineries, does not take into account any American or Ontario refineries.
    Also, below is a link that gives some idea of the effort that the industry in Western Canada is making as far as environmental improvement is concerned.It is way way more than what Venezuela and all the other places America imports heavy oil from spend combined. Canadian oil is getting cleaner by the day.

    http://bit.ly/1kLMYQp
    Mar 20 10:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Most Energy East pipeline oil will go overseas, new report claims [View news story]
    When you take into account that all the refineries in the east are currently using much more expensive imported oil and that the author is an environmental group, this report has zero credibility.
    Mar 18 05:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Threat To Canada's Oil Sands Boom [View article]
    Actually Teddy You are showing Your ignorance - Hydro is way down the list in Canada - Nuclear, gas and coal all come well ahead of Hydro. The one exception is the province of Quebec where they created some vast man made lakes in the northern regions (caused other environmental issues and issues with the natives) and they get most of their electricity from hydro sources. ;-)
    Mar 16 09:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Threat To Canada's Oil Sands Boom [View article]
    Note that oil sand production is currently cheaper than producing tight oil (most of the new oil finds in North America is tight oil) as such the threat is not as big as some would think.
    Mar 16 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Threat To Canada's Oil Sands Boom [View article]
    Teddy - you have obviously taken the enviro crowds bait hook line and sinker. The real abomination is that America keeps buying oil from the likes of Venezuela and that America still burns huge amounts of coal to produce electricity (1000 times worse than oil sands). Also I would suggest you look at where the funding for a lot of these so called "green" organizations come from. You may find out that you are just a pawn in some one's way bigger game. ;-)
    Mar 16 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Former Obama national security adviser urges Keystone pipeline approval [View news story]
    Canadian production reaches record of almost 5 million barrels a day with a lot more to come.

    http://bit.ly/1qD9nmq
    Mar 14 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TransCanada makes final appeal for Keystone as political implications abound [View news story]
    Jake - for a dose of reality - see the link below. Also scientists like Suzuki and the green crowd have little credibility. Suzuki was a bug geneticist. Not exactly good credentials for knowing anything about climate.

    http://bit.ly/1qD9nmq
    Mar 14 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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