Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View marpy's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Will Turquoise Hill's Time Ever Come? [View article]
    Nice article Gary.

    IMO - The biggest problem with TRQ is the GOM which has shown to be very inconsistent with its policies and does not seem to want to honor its contracts. The GOM's actions have caused the Mongolian economy to tank and the currency to drop as foriegn investors stay away. Rio Tinto is a very large well experienced miner and if they can not make a world class project work in Mongolia then most other companies would not have a snow balls chance in hell. This mine when fully developed will be huge part of the Mongolian economy and would be responsible for 30% of Mongolian GDP. It may take till the next election in 2016 for this to get sorted out as the current government has made zero progress and in many ways has actually gone backwards (phase 2 is on hold and the tax dispute is headed for arbitration).
    The agreement was negotiated by the previous government (MPRP) after over 2 years of negotiations and consultation with many world class mining and financial experts and is viewed by most as a very good agreement all around for all parties. The problems started when the DP won the last election with a minority and rather than form a coalition with the MPRP (as had been done previously) decided to form a coalition with some of the more radical nationalistic parties. The resource minister is a member of one of these other parties and a stanch unapologetic resource nationalist.
    Rio Tinto's Sam Walsh has been very clear on where Rio Tinto stands stating that Rio Tinto expects its projects to be profitable through all stages of a resource cycle and that Rio Tinto invested with a long term view and needed stable government policy and frame work. (not his exact words but close enough).
    My read is that the people of Mongolia are getting tired of paying the economic price for the GOM's incompetence and that if things do not change soon the DP and its partners will not do well come next election and we should hopefully see a more business friendly government.
    As for Mongolia nationalizing the mine, you can never say never but it does not make a lot of sense for the following reasons
    1) Mongolia does not have the expertise to run or build such an operation as the underground (80% of value) requires block caving technology and only the top miners on the planet can do this efficiently.
    2) Nationalization would mean that Mongolia would be relying on the Russians or Chinese to operate this mine - Something Mongolia and its people are not keen on.
    3) The agreement the mine was built under is a very strong and comprehensive agreement enforceable in international courts and so nationalization would be a very expensive proposition for Mongolia that would take generations to pay off. 50 billion in compensation to Rio Tinto and the minority shareholder would not IMO be an unreasonable number.

    What we have here amounts to a huge world class deposit with a huge payoff for all parties involved including the people of Mongolia when things finally get sorted out. The biggest looser currently are the people of Mongolia who are paying the economic price for the GOM's actions and incompetence.

    Jul 29 08:39 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of Montreal Faces A Challenging Canadian Environment [View article]
    A couple of corrections for you - BMO has owned Harris Bank of Chicago for something like 25 years - it is not a new acquisition. Those buying BMO or any other Canadian bank right after the 2008 crash would have suffered for a while before seeing a turn around. In BMO's case they went from around $60 down to around $30 before things started getting better.

    Is it a good investment at current levels?? It all depends on what the Canadian economy does and to a lesser extent the US economy does going forward.
    Jul 21 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Colorado governor, oil companies hope to thwart drilling ballot measures [View news story]
    30 billion a year - that has to be a big piece of the states economy. Lots of jobs including many that have little to do with oil and gas would disappear and a lot of tax revenue would be lost. I can see why the governor is concerned. The average citizen that has to work for a living should be as well.
    Jul 18 07:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Encana planning to sell Deep Panuke gas project [View news story]
    Based on the big cash cow that Deep Panuke is, the price tag better be 2 billion plus and even at that, the market may not be happy. This is an asset that unless they get top dollar is better kept.

    Jul 18 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Century Club Dividend Stocks [View article]
    Can you even consider the so called U.S. banks as banks anymore?? So much of their business comes from financial businesses that are not traditional banking and come with higher risks. They are IMO large financial conglomerates that do some traditional banking.

    Jul 18 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Century Club Dividend Stocks [View article]
    There is definitely something to be said for a Canadian style banking system ( economically conservative leaning, relatively big and well regulated). A strong banking system is the key and backbone of any economy and Canada proved this during the last crash.
    Jul 18 11:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Century Club Dividend Stocks [View article]
    I for some time have had a considerable portion of my portfolio in Canadian financials including banks. The indicators I watch for is the health of the real estate market, energy market (oil and gas) and interest rates. Canada's economy is overly dependent on the first two and so as long as they do well, the economy and the banks should do well. Any signs of deterioration in these indicators or economics affecting them and I will be selling all that I own. The Canadian banks are in fairly good shape and so should survive any correction but their earnings and share price will be impacted negatively and so cash will be the place to be. US dollars may also look good as a correction will put the Canadian dollar under pressure.

    Jul 18 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turquoise Hill says Oyu Tolgoi concentrate output returns to normal rates [View news story]
    GOM is still being a thorn in the side of TRQ and Rio Tinto. Rio Tinto has put phase 2 on hold and initiated arbitration proceedings due to tax issues with the GOM. Phase 2 is the underground development that unlocks 80% of the deposits value. TRQ has huge potential but the way things are going with the current GOM, investors may have to wait till after the next election in 2016 before they see any results.

    Jul 15 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: Helping Clean Up The Canadian Oil Sands [View article]
    GE smells money in the oil sands - its as simple as that. As for the oil sands being dirty - They are no where as dirty as people think. The average is around 14% more green house gas emissions than conventional production and getting better all the time as the industry itself has many initiatives to improve environmental performance in the works. Its heavy oil and heavy oils in general regardless of where they come from result in more green house gas when produced. The real bad boy when it comes to green house gas is actually coal which is way worse than oil.
    Jul 14 02:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Column: Jeff Immelt is the American Canada needs to lead oil sands clean-up [View news story]
    No - they are humans who are misguided would about sum it up. For some reason, they feel a need for a cause or something?? The cause being right or wrong seems to be a secondary concern. ;-)
    Jul 13 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Column: Jeff Immelt is the American Canada needs to lead oil sands clean-up [View news story]
    Reality is that the industry is already doing everything mentioned in that article. If GE can add to it, I am sure they would not mind. And if GE comes up with something useful, they can both make a lot more money.
    Jul 13 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Column: Jeff Immelt is the American Canada needs to lead oil sands clean-up [View news story]
    Its one of the miss conceptions that the greens have been spreading. They also conveniently leave out the security of supply part. Keystone oil would be displacing Venezuelan heavy oil for the most part and once refined ( they also leave out the part about the transporting and refining on American soil creating American jobs and paying American taxes) some of the refined products will be exported and some used in North America (no different than now). also fracking is not used to produce oil from the oil sands.
    Jul 13 08:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Column: Jeff Immelt is the American Canada needs to lead oil sands clean-up [View news story]
    Can't be cleaned up??? The industry has been making steady improvement for years as far as cleaner and environment improvement is concerned.
    Jul 13 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Column: Jeff Immelt is the American Canada needs to lead oil sands clean-up [View news story]
    The industry itself is already doing what the columnist is proposing and has been for some time. That is why the practices an technology used now is a lot different and cleaner than it was 20 years ago. The article shows a lack of knowledge by the author and Immelt (if he is saying that). As the industry has always been very collaborative when it comes to safety and the environment and has many initiatives under way. Makes me wander if the article is nothing more than a "soft attack" on the industry from those who are against it. Then on the other hand, If Ge and Immelt are interested in joining the effort, it would be a win/ win situation as GE could make lots of money selling the industry technology and product and the industry could make that much more selling with less of a monkey on their backs.
    Jul 13 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Ukraine Ends Ceasefire, BNP Pleads Guilty, Auto Recalls [View article]
    when you put a narrow minded green activist with no balls in the white house, that's what you get. ;-)
    Jul 1 11:46 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment