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marpy

marpy
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  • Encana: Vast Asset Portfolio Is A Source Of Funds, But Divestiture Proceeds May Disappoint [View article]
    As the sale of the Haynesville assets shows, they seem to be quite good at unlocking value in what they sell. Hopefully they can keep this up!
    Sep 1, 2015. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Growth Concerns Again Test Stocks - SPX Support Waits At 1922 [View article]
    IMO When trying to figure out what is going on in China it is better to look at secondary data like imports of raw materials and money flow rather than the numbers China issues. This secondary data from sources like Platts for raw materials, paints a better picture than what the market is saying as imports are up. Although they may just be taking advantage of low prices, imports of raw materials tend to be a leading indicator because they will eventually be processed into finished goods. Even when you consider the devaluation of most currencies against US and Chinese currency, it is understandable why China is having a harder time exporting. This tide in places like the Eurozone should soon start to turn as their economic issues are sorted out.
    To much emphasis is also put on the Chinese stock market as in comparison to the Chinese economy it is relatively small and unsophisticated with most stock owned by individual investors.
    People are also looking at steel consumption in China which is down as the country shifts from an economy where most growth comes from export and building/ infrastructure development to one focused on internal consumption. based on the shifts China is making, this drop in steel consumption should be expected and one would think that the Chinese industry would (if they are not expecting further growth down the road) eventually cut old inefficient production. As such, how China handles the current steel glut will also be very telling.
    China may not be in nearly as bad a shape as the market thinks and it could turn very quickly.

    JMO
    Sep 1, 2015. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: It's Go Time [View article]
    Old farmers Almanac does it for me as "the squirrels really do know best when it comes to the weather".
    Aug 31, 2015. 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Encana's EV/EBITDA Discount Might Open Up The Door For A Takeover [View article]
    Encana is a very asset rich company stuck in low part of the commodities cycle after as pointed out making a sizable acquisition at mush higher prices. One also need to point out that Encana also sold some assets at better prices to make this acquisition possible and so the Purchase of Athalon is not the negative that it would seem on the surface and IMO gives Encana better assets than it had. Encana estimates over 3 billion barrels of recoverable oil on Athalon properties which equates to a purchase price of around $2 per barrel.
    I suspect that Encana will also surprise to the positive sides on both production numbers and operating costs in the last half of the year. They alluded as much on the last quarters results which were front end loaded with delivery tilted to the latter half of the year.
    They are a very asset rich company with good operating expertise, an improving balance sheet and a very good probability of attracting attention of a suitor as the article points out.

    JMO - Long ECA
    Aug 31, 2015. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arcelor Mittal's South Africa unit to close mills, review largest plant [View news story]
    makes sense - If the government is not willing to protect the home market and jobs from dumped steel, the companies are forced to react.
    Aug 31, 2015. 11:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour [View news story]
    Markets are really making to big a deal about China!! The market is making far to much out of the hit the Chinese stock market is taking. Compared to the Chinese economy, the Chinese stock market is relatively small, unsophisticated, with share holdings mostly in the hands of individual investors and so not a true reflection of the overall Chinese economy.
    The Chinese economy has been impacted by the poor economics of some of its trading partners more than anything else (Europe and commodity based economies for example). I expect that as these problems get sorted out, the Chinese economy will surprise very much on the positive side. I have noticed increased purchases of Base metal and other raw materials by China and this speaks more than a lot of things about what is going on in China.
    JMO
    Aug 31, 2015. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Oil Sands halts crude production at Syncrude after fire [View news story]
    So last week Alberta oil was trading at a big discount due to problems with take away capacity (two pipelines) and end user capacity (2 refinery issues) and this week it will swing the other way as the problems are with supply! I guess you call that balancing out!!
    Aug 31, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: To Hike Or Not To Hike? [View article]
    IMO The market is making far to much out of the hit the Chinese stock market is taking. Compared to the Chinese economy, the Chinese stock market is relatively small, unsophisticated, with share holdings mostly in the hands of individual investors and not a true reflection of the overall Chinese economy.
    The Chinese economy has been impacted by the poor economics of some of its trading partners more than anything else (Europe and commodity based economies for example). I expect that as these problems get sorted out, the Chinese economy will surprise very much on the positive side.
    JMO
    Aug 31, 2015. 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire returns to energy sector with $4.5B stake in Phillips 66 [View news story]
    Warren knows Obama is on the way out and the next administration is going to be more "oil friendly". Only questions are - will he be taking out the rest of the company and will be be bringing in his "heavy" buddies from Brazil to whip he company into shape?? ;-)
    Aug 29, 2015. 04:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Shale Production Breakeven And Marginal Costs, Moving The Goalposts? [View article]
    Most silver is also produced as a by-product of base metal production. In other words, they will keep producing it regardless of price.
    Aug 29, 2015. 04:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alberta promises not to change oil, gas royalty rates before end of 2016 [View news story]
    The bigger problem is the green bastards!!
    Aug 28, 2015. 07:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC Shot First - Maintaining Operations At $40 WTI [View article]
    To say that OPEC is just targeting shale producers is IMO a narrow view as the Saudis and their allies do not care where the production cuts come from as long as its not them. Their is also considerable other high cost production other than shale that will have trouble at these prices. (off shore, 3rd world, oil sands)
    As far as shale is concerned, IMO - if oil prices stay close to where they are for the next 6 months, then reality really sets in for the shale producers. Forward sales roll off, easy money is no longer available to them and many are not low cost producers and can not survive 40 - $50 oil.

    Time will tell and we are not talking a lot of time here. JMO
    Aug 28, 2015. 08:31 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid These Canadian Banks [View article]
    Yes Canadian housing is expensive but unlike the US bubble that burst, Canada has no NINJA loans and the government has been taking precautionary measures (25 year maximum amortization allowed for government insured mortgages for example). What this means is that the governments and the banks have lots of leeway in how they manage the inevitable housing down turn. More at risk are the Canadian lenders that operate outside of the rules that govern banks like Home Capital group to name one. Also not that most of the Canadian banks have sizable US divisions which will help in a Canadian slow down.

    IMO - The banks may see a blip but will continue paying their juicy dividends and do just fine.
    Aug 28, 2015. 07:35 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Keystone XL rejection could come by Labor Day weekend [View news story]
    I suppose rail that runs through major population centers makes more sense to him than a far safer pipeline built to the highest standards.
    Aug 27, 2015. 02:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Keystone XL rejection could come by Labor Day weekend [View news story]
    I agree and as long as they are transporting Huge amounts of oil by rail, it is needed as it is far safer and avoids going through major population centers like the rail roads do.
    Aug 27, 2015. 02:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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