Seeking Alpha

alrado

alrado
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View alrado's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • End Of Tesla, Or End Of Oil? [View article]
    chipdoctor, the facts do not support your view. World demand for oil (see link below from EIA) has increased every year, except for a small decrease during the 2008 financial crisis. Even at $100 bbl. demand is increasing.

    http://1.usa.gov/1z4NCNv
    Dec 19, 2014. 06:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • End Of Tesla, Or End Of Oil? [View article]
    Themtgbanker, I totally agree about the price of oil, this is a supply issue that will be cleared up albeit painfully for high cost, highly levered producers. World oil consumption (see link below from EIA) has increased every year except for a small decrease during the 2008 financial crisis. Even at $100 bbl. world oil demand was increasing and at $60 bbl. demand will certainly increase. In addition, as the world's two most populous countries, India and China become more wealthy, they want cars. Per capita auto ownership in both India and China are below 100 per 1,000 while in the U.S. it's +800 per 1,000. Unless there is a transportation fuel breakthrough of some kind, the death of oil has been greatly exaggerated.

    http://1.usa.gov/1z4NCNv
    Dec 19, 2014. 06:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I See Things [View article]
    "Gold prices are still quite elevated relative to their long-term inflation-adjusted average, which I calculate to be roughly $600/oz."

    Can you elaborate on your valuation methodology?
    Oct 28, 2014. 08:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danieli: Ultra-Cheap, Ultra-Solid, 40% Upside (At Least) [View article]
    Need to be careful including cash in EV for this business. AR/AP terms are much longer and net AR/AP is negative 1.2B Euros.
    Sep 9, 2014. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even The Council On Foreign Relations Is Saying It: Time To Rain Money On Main Street [View article]
    are the chicks for free?
    Sep 2, 2014. 01:50 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even The Council On Foreign Relations Is Saying It: Time To Rain Money On Main Street [View article]
    Not a case in point. The Alaska Permanent Fund is constitutionally prohibited from spending the principal. No helicopter dumping there. Sounds like prudent financial management to me.
    Sep 2, 2014. 01:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happened To All The Profits? [View article]
    I think you can call QE and ZIRP a form of supply side economics, but it's not Reaganomics. Reaganomics was about lower taxes, lower government spending, and less government regulation.
    Aug 29, 2014. 09:16 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rational Exuberance [View article]
    "It can't be good news that nearly 1/3 of investment is going to poking holes in the ground."

    Care to elaborate why capex spending on oil exploration is not good?
    Jun 23, 2014. 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Prices And Real Interest Rates, Part I [View article]
    I think your model is missing a variable, global per capita real GDP growth. Assume that real interest rates are zero, your model would predict zero change in the price of gold; however, as real per capita GDP increased, gold as a % of real global GDP would decrease which doesn't make sense.
    May 7, 2014. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Prices And Real Interest Rates, Part I [View article]
    "It would be interesting to see what an average worker's entire pay would be in gold and $ over time."

    You might find the answer here:

    http://bit.ly/1g6p0LR
    May 6, 2014. 05:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking The Perfect Storm [View article]
    bud4704, I downloaded 10 years of daily TIP (adjusted for dividends) prices and daily GLD prices and the correlation coefficient is +0.95. Not a perfect substitution, but pretty close.
    Apr 23, 2014. 07:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    I agree with most of your words; however, I fear that failure in this case will be thrust upon the taxpayers.
    Apr 8, 2014. 07:25 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 20 Best Value Bond Investments For Maturities Of 10 Years Or More [View article]
    I had the same thoughts. The above analysis uses the Kamakura daily default probability analysis which is a one year view. I presume that Kamakura does multi-year default probability assessments, but not for free.
    Mar 7, 2014. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Argent (And A 17% Yield) Before Earnings [View article]
    FlaYankee, funds from ops is $85M, distibutions are $58M and capex is $45M for a cash deficit of $18M. What are you looking at (or what am I missing?) that supports your claim that the bulk of the distribution is return of capital?
    Mar 2, 2014. 12:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Are Buying Argent Energy Trust [View article]
    This is from SEDI; So far 5,000 shares (director Brian Prokop) purchased on open market in January, another 4,858 thru the company purchase plan. I don't know the Canadian rules but it looks like SEDI posting date is within a week of transaction date.

    Disclosure, I have a small long position but will be doing more DD as this looks like a bargain. That said, it's curious that the insiders aren't buying at these lower levels.

    Markus, any additional insight since your last posting?
    Feb 27, 2014. 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
116 Comments
144 Likes