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alrado

alrado
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  • Titan Machinery: Company Set To Capitalize On Long-Term Food Production Demand [View article]
    Quarter vs. quarter operating expense was $69M vs. $55M. The ER was not helpful in explaining this increase:
    "The increase in operating expenses as a percentage of revenue reflects the impact of lower first quarter revenue and the higher operating expenses as a percent of revenue in the expanded Construction footprint. The Company expects operating expenses as a percentage of sales to improve in coming quarters as it expects sales growth to improve."
    Huh? This gets the award for using many words to say nothing. Any insight into what's going on here?
    Jun 6, 2013. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Generational Lows In Barrick Gold [View article]
    Raja, any insight into ABX's environmental issues at Pascua-Lama ?
    May 29, 2013. 07:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The U.S. Stock Market Is Headed Into A Brick Wall [View article]
    Jason, I can't speak for Neil, however; but isn't his reference to "leakage" just another way of saying that while M1 and M2 are growing the velocity of M1 and M2 isn't and continues to shrink?
    http://bit.ly/x0cMMT
    http://bit.ly/MJ28bR
    May 26, 2013. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013: The Year Of Printing Money [View article]
    Perhaps you could provide some examples of when and where CB printing increased RGDP. Looking at NGDP is useless without factoring in inflation.
    Dec 17, 2012. 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013: The Year Of Printing Money [View article]
    CM, While your argument that CB's can controI the size of NGDP may be true in Zimbabwe, I don't think it is relevant in the US. The Fed's dual mandate targets inflation to 2.5% and therefore NGDP will always be targeted within 2.5% of RGDP. In other words, if RGDP goes up, NGDP should be in lock step. The US will never, in theory, experience the Zimbabwe's hyperinflation fiasco due to CB experimentation unless of course, the mandate changes or much more importantly the CB's are under the illusion that they can control inflation but in reality can not. Also, could you post your source for Zimbabwe historical GDP. Thanks.
    Dec 17, 2012. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Driving The Markets And Where Do We Go From Here? [View article]
    JS, I presume you are long VIX via futures. What months did you buy. Thanks.
    Nov 25, 2012. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Killing Joe Sixpack [View article]
    Angelou, I don't know who creates jobs or who kills them; however, I think you have excluded the most important factor driving consumer and corporate behavior which is the US has too much debt and is loathe to add more. This is why despite ZIRP and QE, the velocity of money has and continues to drop like a rock. Much of our growth over the last 20 years was due to the addition of debt, we borrowed money to pay for consumption, now we will have to pay for it.

    Your comment about unions lacks perspective. Union membership in non-government organizations has and continues to decrease. The pendulum will never swing back. The Hostess baking closure is a prime example, without getting into who or what killed the company, those union jobs are going away and will never come back. On the other hand, government unions currently have plenty of stroke; however, I predict that when taxpayers finally have had enough of bloated salaries and benefits, this to shall end.
    Nov 18, 2012. 09:33 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ray Dalio's Primer On Deleveraging [View article]
    Thx bbro, I'm still on the fence about what the Fed is doing. Dalio's essay about deleveraging, which I think is a must read for any student of macro economics, presents a compelling case that money printing plays a positive role in the deleveraging process if done correctly. That said, I feel that Dalio is cherry picking the data to make his case; for example why did he exclude 1938 and 1939 in the US case study? Also the case study of the current situation in the US is still early and it feels like the economy is headed for a recession despite all the fed money printing. According to Dalio, If the US has an "ugly" deleveraging, everything goes down including gold. If the US has a "beautiful" deleveraging, gold and equities will do well, with air pockets along the way, the USD gets devalued in an orderly way and interest rates stay low for a long long time. We shall see.
    Jul 2, 2012. 07:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ray Dalio's Primer On Deleveraging [View article]
    bbro, please post your source.
    Jul 1, 2012. 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are U.S. Equities Undervalued? New Evidence From A Federal Reserve Model [View article]
    it's worse than the crowd thinks
    Jun 25, 2012. 11:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 'New York Times' Economist Paul Krugman Is Partly Right But Mostly Wrong [View article]
    "When the Fed buys treasuries, that is new money created out of thin air that must be paid back at some point + interest." That's not correct"

    Asbytec, I think it's partially not correct (or partially correct lol) . I agree that paying back the debt will never happen, it will be rolled over into perpetuity; however, servicing the debt must happen or you default. Regarding money created out of thin air this is the way I see it. QE put dollars into the "system" that didn't exist before QE. When the Fed did QE it purchases debt securities from the Treasury. The money is needed by the Treasury to cover the deficit as tax receipts aren't enough to cover current spending. Under a non-QE scenario, the Treasury debt would have been purchased by some investor and the cash used to fund the Treasury purchase would not be available as cash to the investor any longer. On the other hand, under QE the cash that would have been used to buy Treasuries by the investor mentioned above are now available to do something else thereby creating money out of thin air. We are in effect funding the deficit without taking cash from investors. Neat trick if you can get away with it. The evidence of this is the US monetary base has gone from $800B in 2008 to a current $2,700B. If I missed the point you were making, let me know.
    May 6, 2012. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The next economic boom, writes Daniel Gross, will be created by the efficiencies unleashed by America's transition from an Ownership Society to a Rentership Society. It's not just housing - citizens are getting used to the flexibility of renting across a whole range of goods. "The U.S. economy needs the dynamism that renting enables as much as - if not more than - it needs the stability that ownership engenders."  [View news story]
    After reading the article I agree that many of the concepts such as renting; cars, textbooks, homes vs. buying makes economic sense in certain situations. That said, I'm not seeing that this trend will create "the next economic boom".
    May 5, 2012. 01:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are U.S. Stocks Cheap Based On 12-Month Forward PE For The S&P 500? Part I [View article]
    Steve, I read your referenced essay and I can see where growth rate would have a big impact on valuation using your methodology. Is it possible to extend that analysis to include 1945 forward? It seems to me that your 1960 to the present time period was an era in which growth was juiced due to leverage and may not be representative of a deleveraging world economy. The 10 years after WW2 saw some significant debt reduction and may be more comparable to today's environment.
    Apr 21, 2012. 10:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reading The Treasury Tea Leaves [View article]
    flow5, i have a couple of basic questions. velocity = nominal gdp / m2. m2 is published weekly, where are you getting your weekly gdp info from? do you estimate it? also, what is the basis of your statement that velocity will turn down sharply thru june. thanks.
    Apr 15, 2012. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still No Recession On The Horizon [View article]
    jhooper, how do you see this playing out? will we choose austerity (higher taxes and or lower spending) or will we monetize the debt?
    Apr 13, 2012. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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