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  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    sts66, where did you get that # of procedures in Q2 droped? If you do know, please share.
    From what I can see, they just provided that the first half was 19K procedures. "We realized if we kept the sequential growth in the number of procedures of 14% compared to Q1, 2015 notably ahead of the anticipated impact from the fully deployed sales forces"

    I'm assuming this means they saw 14% increase in procedures from Q1 to Q2, and they're saying if they maintain that growth, they can hit the guidance. ... Maybe I'm wrong, but please do share your sources.
    Aug 1, 2015. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    Okay, started reading the transcript.

    The first thing I got was that they're already seeing an "early sign of a positive impact" of the sales team... This tells you that July saw a good uptick.

    The second thing was the following, which kind of answers what you were asking about. See below directly from the transcript provided by SA.

    "During the quarter Lymphoseek procedures in new customer account are tracking the forecast having achieved Lymphoseek usage in nearly 19,000 surgical procedures in the first half. We realized if we kept the sequential growth in the number of procedures of 14% compared to Q1, 2015 notably ahead of the anticipated impact from the fully deployed sales forces and as we have stated before, we continue to maintain a high reorder rate which tells us that once the customer use Lymphoseek they continue to reorder it.

    Based on the first half commercials performance we remained confident we will achieve our $10 million to $12 million Lymphoseek revenue target for 2015."

    This tells you what they're looking for in terms of procedures growth, and the level of confidence that they'll hit the guidance....another confirmation that Q3 is off to a good start.

    I will continue to dig in..If I found more interesting things, I'll probably try to write a summary in an Instablog, if you guys are interested.
    Jul 31, 2015. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    sts66, I wanna dig in the earning transcript again, and try to get little more info and clues out of it...I haven't had time...

    "Didn't dig into the 8-Ks to see if procedures are growing at similar rates to sales - do you know the numbers for the last 3-4 quarters"

    Good question! I don't think they have been disclosing that number. It would be good to know. Maybe it's an email to IR. I honestly wouldn't think that the price increase should have anything to do with the growth number, it just went effective today. I know they mentioned during the CC that they notified their customers 1 months ahead. So July's number, in theory, should be encouraging. With the sales team officially out during Q2, I too would hope to see growth back to where it use to be (above 20%). It's a waiting game now.

    Meanwhile, let's see what developments we get out of Manocept.
    Jul 31, 2015. 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    Furthermore, you are sneaking in wrong information in your comments as facts (typical bashing behavior).
    You say "margins are shrinking" this is just plain wrong.

    "Gross margins on Lymphoseek product sales grew to 83% for the second quarter of 2015" they actually grew.

    Please stop mis-leading readers.
    Jul 30, 2015. 09:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    Your projections don't take into account the price hike per procedure of 39%. If you apply a 39% increase in revenue to 2/3rd of q3 and all Q4, per your numbers, u get something like 3.1m for q3 and 4.15M for Q4. This means 11.11M for the year, which is mid range of guidance....

    Again, this is using your own projections.
    Jul 30, 2015. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    Yes, please follow these anaylts and short it already :)
    You'll make a lot of money, especially if you are that confidant. Why have u been roaming around SA for the past year or 2 commenting/bashing on every piece of news about $NAVB, offering zero substance; complaining about the stock and how it is a POS. Embrace it and bet all your money shorting it.
    Jul 30, 2015. 12:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    I liked your comment by mistake-- but you're right. However, the 20% isn't something they said they would keep up as a promise going forward. It was just me looking for it, as a feel good.

    On the other hand, the guidance for the year is intact. They must be seeing an uptick in sales in July. Otherwise, they would have guided down...Sales Team results will start showing in Q3 results...the price increase will help a lot with revenue. It's pretty substantial hike..If they were having trouble selling it, they wouldn't have increased it. So that's very positive.
    Jul 30, 2015. 10:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    "Navidea charges $357 per procedure."

    Guys, you need to adjust your calculations and projections going forward. There's is a 39% price increase to $497 per procedure effective 7/31 (tomorrow).

    Makes this company more and more under-valued!
    Jul 30, 2015. 09:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notable earnings before Thursday’s open [View news story]
    Not sure what everybody is complaining about here!

    The only comment I see valid is the one asking about this alert to be sent before the market closes.

    Other than that, you guys are missing the point. This is a reminder alert, in case you didn't know, or missed the PR from the company (or companies) you're following, to let you know that earning results are coming. It's actually very helpful. You can tune in to the CC, set your alarm or just ignore it...

    It's also a great tool for traders who like to play earnings...it gives them heads up to what companies are reporting the next day--time for a quick DD!
    Jul 29, 2015. 07:41 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    sts66,

    Well, the grants are exactly that, grants to run studies, they're not used to market LS etc...would you rather they pay that out of pocket? I don't think so...this helps reduce R&D expenses and bring the company closer to profitability WHILE developing their pipeline.

    About revenue, the important metric (as you probably agree) here is the LS sales growth...stock will react to that. It will not react to revenue beats or analysts projection....market is closely watching LS sales.

    DWD,
    LOL, none of what I mentioned (and you didn't know about) is really relevant to the investment thesis, I don't think :)
    Jul 29, 2015. 06:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    sts66,

    Understand your frustration, especially given that during the time you held the company, the stock severely under-performed. But that is the past.

    Allow me to first correct you on one thing. You say ""Forget anything JMP writes, they're paid to write positive stuff *for* NAVB *by* NAVB."

    Please spend an extra second that it takes to click on the link, the author actually linked you to that presentation. It was NOT something JMP wrote. It was the JMP conference were Navidea's CEO actually presented. So, those words, and presentation content are directly out of the company.

    Second: "do you even know who he is without googling it first?" About Martin, yes, unfortunately some of us do. Can't believe you've actually quoted him. The guy who got kicked out of his own company. The guy who was behind shorting companies in hopes to run them to ground. If you know QCOR, you probably do now him....Having said that, I don't follow the point of actually knowing him versus not. Yes he bashed NAVB since day zero and was trying to convince the FDA not approve LS (very noble). Not knowing him is a good thing, actually.

    Third, "they're not even close to seeing break-even for the foreseeable future."

    As some said above, they've been re-iterating guidance every chance they get. They claim they will be break-even in Q1. Could they miss the guidance? Of course it's possible, but likely not. I will have a problem if they miss it by a lot, which indicates that something is materially wrong.

    The fact is, your holding of NAVB over the years is kind of irrelevant, sorry. They only got expanded label just last year. So whatever was said in the past about LS is irrelevant. The article is not a 2 paragraph article. Facts were presented. You can take the time to review them along with the links included. It's all about the sustained growth and re-order rate, and they both indicate a positive trajectory, for LS alone.

    FWIW, nobody said they WILL have full market penetration...but they can come pretty close...Some people still use flip phones....

    I do agree with you regarding the Manocept potential. Yes, it could be big. Yes, it's years away. However, partnerships and early study results are within months...so the SP could react to that fairly soon.
    Jul 28, 2015. 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    sbarth, I do see your point. The Cardinal deal will likely not be-renegotiated before the contract ends. At least that's the hint I got from IR's reply (quoted above). The 50% is not uncommon. I may point some fingers at older management, because I could see how it could have been pushed better to the market.
    Though keep in mind that the contract was signed in 2007 times ago, and the approval came later in 2013, along with the expanded label (the real thing) mid-2014. New management is on it, and saw weakness; they're acting on it. In fact, they seem like they are in sink now (again, from IR's reply).
    Jul 28, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    FYI, they just got a grant today "Navidea and Massachusetts General Hospital to Evaluate Manocept™ for Detection of Cardiovascular Disease with NIH Grant"

    http://yhoo.it/1LU9bfd

    As DWD suggested, I suggest that readers do some DD on the Manocept platform.
    Jul 28, 2015. 01:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    Hi Penny,
    What I would be looking for is 20% growth in LS revenue over Q1. Other than that, there's not much that's unknown. Unless they decide to announce some partnership.
    Jul 28, 2015. 12:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Benefits From Celgene Buyout Of Receptos [View article]
    Sedric, Little bit of a captain obvious here? No one said it was equivalent. If it was, stock would have jumped by 600% versus 6%. It would be trading at $28 on APD-334 potential alone.

    Spencer, thanks for a nice summary, as usual.

    Any idea how long a phase 2 trial will take with APD-334? From the 10Q:

    "APD334, a modulator of the sphingosine 1-phosphate subtype 1, or S1P 1 , receptor intended for the treatment of a number of autoimmune diseases, has completed a Phase 1 program. We plan to advance APD334 into a Phase 2 clinical trial this year for ulcerative colitis. We believe APD334 may also provide a clinical benefit in Crohn’s and other autoimmune diseases, and are evaluating whether to enter into one or more additional Phase 2 trials. The potential start and related timing of a trial for an indication in addition to ulcerative colitis is under assessment and may not occur this year"

    They don't say how long it will take... any thoughts?
    Jul 15, 2015. 07:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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