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oneotherfool

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  • Arena secures new Belviq patent; Eisai cuts sales force [View news story]
    Thanks Douglas!
    Apr 10, 2015. 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena secures new Belviq patent; Eisai cuts sales force [View news story]
    Yet, the stock is up! LOL, go figure!
    Apr 10, 2015. 10:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena secures new Belviq patent; Eisai cuts sales force [View news story]
    Man, would it kill them to put out a clear PR with the total number of reps?!! Why leave it up to interpretation?

    "As part of this restructuring, Eisai has informed us that it will have a new Neurology Sales Force consisting of 90 sales representatives that will promote BELVIQ and two other Eisai products and a shared contract field force of 230 representatives to promote BELVIQ on behalf of Eisai and another product on behalf of another pharmaceutical company."

    Or maybe it's clear? It looks like SA interpreted this as the 600 reps are gone, and there will only be 230+90=320 reps for Belviq.
    I initially took this to mean that a 25% cut to the 600 is 450 reps from Eisai, PLUS the above 320=770.... I'm probably wrong.
    Apr 10, 2015. 09:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena - Belviq Television Advertising Disappointing In March [View article]
    Here's wishful thinking that's not gonna happen, for entertaining purposes :)

    Starting next Monday, 1. Eisai will announce Sales Rep increase back to 600 (or more). 2. Eisai will air a new ad for belviq. 3. Eisai will increase the rate at which tv ads are aired by 2x, quarter of which will be during prime time.

    Thanks for the update, Spencer.
    Apr 2, 2015. 08:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IRS: Capital LOSSES And Carry Over Rules [View instapost]
    Here's the IRS source.

    http://1.usa.gov/1E7b2tr

    Check "Capital Losses" paragraph.... In short, you and your CPA seem to be correct!
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: Belviq Scripts See Modest Rise, Revenue Story Not Promising [View article]
    Another good article Spencer.

    Bottom line is, the way I see it, Eisai's marketing strategy is disappointing to say the least. Probably "failure" is a better word for it... Trying different things here and there. Here are a few that I can think of:

    *First mistake was the weak launch, both in sales rep and frequency of ads.
    *Second mistake was the virtual absence of prime time ads.
    *Third, probably not a lot of people agree with this one, discounting was over done. They would have probably gotten away with a softer discount... Maybe pricing is not much of an issue... Maybe trying to reach more people is the answer, which circles back to bad marketing strategy.
    *Fourth, the constant strategy shift, which shows lack of focus and lack commitment to making one strategy work.

    Yes, it does look like throwing "good money after bad money"...that's because they managed it so poorly. It felt like, at every stage of the game, "let's try to spend the least amount of money possible and see if it works... If it doesn't let's shift and change more than one variable at a time, so that we don't understand what the hell is going on"....
    Why on earth did they both (Arena and Eisai) agree to expand their partnership across the world is beyond me?!! Note that some of the blame falls on Arena too... They are being very passive, especially with letting the street project such a HIGH projections... That and the famous CEO sale was a horrific move.
    Yes, I acknowledge that insurance coverage would help, but I'm talking about the missteps here.

    Sorry for the rant... Just expressing things the way I see them at this point. Agree about the smoking and potential. That's the only reason I hold this equity at this point. That and the slow growth seems to be well absorbed at this point and priced in. But I've been wrong before :)!
    Mar 24, 2015. 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Pharmaceuticals: An Update On My $2 Biotech Lottery Ticket [View article]
    Yeah I read that. Why would you set such a plan at such an early stage like that?! Really? Can't wait a year to "diversify"? Are you kidding me?....I don't have the document handy, but I believe it said something about the percentage of his holdings. I think it's something like less than 11% of his stake only... So it's not that bad.
    Mar 20, 2015. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In LeapFrog Enterprises Requires A Leap Of Faith [View article]
    I was wondering what brought it down from the support at $2.3s on Monday, down to the $2.10, it turns out insiders were helping with their vested shares.
    Mar 18, 2015. 08:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Pharmaceuticals: An Update On My $2 Biotech Lottery Ticket [View article]
    Yes, thanks Banzai for the nice research!...
    The only thing I have to say is that since the OCT approval and the new CEO, they have shifted market focus to target the surgical oncologist etc... So the "target numbers" that were mentioned as of Q1 and Q2 of 2014 may no longer apply.
    Mar 12, 2015. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The oil price decline could get ugly again soon, analysts warn [View news story]
    Sh*t, I was bullish until I read your comment.
    Mar 11, 2015. 07:17 PM | 34 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Pharmaceuticals: An Update On My $2 Biotech Lottery Ticket [View article]
    Doug,

    If you click on this presentation, I think you'll get a lot out of it, and many of your questions answered.

    http://bit.ly/199gzCJ

    Check slides 10 and 11 specifically regarding the size of the market. This is a fairly new presentation. It's from Jan 2015.
    Mar 10, 2015. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sunshine Clouds Over After Patient Deaths [View article]
    Thanks for the summary.

    "When it is a trial of a company’s sole device, and the halt is due to four of the first 20 patients enrolled dying, it is more than a worry. "

    Correct, when you look at it from the surface. But when you look deeper, you have to keep in mind that these are patients with really complicated heart issues. These are not patients who are taking headache pills that have caused death, which may or may not be related to the pill. As you said, "the phase III trial’s protocol calls for a cessation if more than three of the first twenty patients die from any cause, including non-device related deaths."

    I mean I could end up being wrong and the device did CAUSE the other two deaths. But from the way the PR was worded, it sounded like management was "pretty sure" that enrollments will resume once the FDA reviews the docs.

    We should find out in a little over a month.
    Mar 9, 2015. 06:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Pharmaceuticals: An Update On My $2 Biotech Lottery Ticket [View article]
    Interesting.... Not sure if Bret have any inputs on this. It sounds like we need to wait for what the "Advisory Board" will come up with. I mean the main reason they formed it is to find out "How do we go from here?"

    Doug, maybe one way to go about this is to put together a formal question and send it to Investor Relations. I doubt they'll answer besides saying "we're looking into that". But the question maybe be formed in way that acknowledges that the Advisory Board is looking into it, but are there any known assumptions that we should know about (i.e no matter what there will need to be a phase I/II trials etc...)
    Mar 9, 2015. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sunshine Heart suspends enrollment in C-Pulse trial after four deaths [View news story]
    In addition, financing has been figured out already.
    Mar 6, 2015. 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sunshine Heart suspends enrollment in C-Pulse trial after four deaths [View news story]
    Could just be me, but it sounds like the FDA knew about it already, I wanna say they gave the interim analysis approval, after knowing about it.

    "The FDA has responded to Sunshine Heart's notification and has advised the Company to file an IDE supplement that discusses the reasons for the temporary study suspension and a plan for study resumption"

    It couldn't have happened that fast. I mean the approval was last Wednesday. We know the FDA does not act that fast... The fact that the pop faded, it means that somehow that the world GOT OUT then!... In the past, I bought here, with more risk on the table. In my opinion, it's now less risk, after the interim analysis has been approved and the enrollment numbers have shown nice improvements. You now get to buy at the same level, if you agree that more risk has been taken off the table.
    Mar 6, 2015. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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