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tinshins

tinshins
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  • The Hindenburg Omen Blog - October, 2010 [View instapost]
    AR.

    What is this other blog you're commenting on ???
    Nov 15, 2010. 04:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hindenburg Omen Blog - October, 2010 [View instapost]
    AR.

    Now here is a thought experiment for you, and yes this is not really related to the HO. (Where should this go anyway ?) Let's take Japan for example. Japan has debt at about 250% of GDP, and a currency that is way too strong.

    So what will happen if the Japanese Central Bank offers to pay ¥100 million to all comers that delivers one troy ounce of gold to its HQ in Tokyo ?

    Well, first of all Mrs Tanaka will dig out her Krugerrand and haul off to HQ for an instant cash bonanza. After all, ¥100 million is equal to about 20 years of Japanese salary earnings. And probably Mrs Tanaka will pay off her debt, and then go shopping in the Ginza district.

    But there will still be some money left, and she will invest it, and she will try to be a bit risky, and that means Mrs Tanaka will throw some money at the Stock Market ... I wonder how many such Mrs Tanaka's are in Japan ?

    And then there is Mrs Jane Doe with her 3 boutique shops in 2 overpriced shopping malls, that's just making ends meet selling knock-off Chinese Garments. And then Mrs Doe hears about the superior quality of kimono material ... and she can buy a year's supply with some petty cash, if she'll just rush off for a gold Maple Leaf at the nearest coin shop ...

    So the Japanese economy booms, there is a massive influx of gold, and since the Yen thus created, does not necessarily leave Japan, the Yen will still trade at normal levels on the Forex market.

    Oh yes, with the 765 tonnes of gold that Japan has, it can retire all of its government debt, with half of these holdings. And 90% of Japanese Government Debt is held domestically. Everybody wins methinks.

    It almost sounds too good to be true. What am I missing ????
    Nov 13, 2010. 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hindenburg Omen Blog - October, 2010 [View instapost]
    AR.

    I think the depth of the ultimate crash is going to depend on the availability of gold ... no matter what its price.

    Consider that in the 1930's money could leave the stock market and enter bonds which were denominated in money backed by gold. No currency is backed by gold today.

    My fear is that gold is sold in such quantities that supply no longer remains available at any price. The gold markets will just shut down. If that should happen, you'll see money leave the financial system entirely in its pursuit of gold. Which means inflation and deflation will pop up in the weirdest of markets.

    The lesson of the Great Depression was that there should have been a lender of last resort. I believe this Great Recession will prove the need for a gold seller of last resort ...
    Nov 13, 2010. 11:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CGTS TRADING SIGNALS SLIDE SHOW: FOR THURSDAY, 30 SEPTEMBER 2010. Australian Dollar, Euro giving sell signals; US Dollar covers against Chinese Yuan [View instapost]
    I liked this one verse from one of Robert Burns' poems :

    The Kirk an' State may join an' tell,
    To do sic things I maunna:
    The Kirk an' State may gae to hell,
    And I'll gae to my Anna.
    Oct 2, 2010. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade War Tuesday: China, Japan and U.S. at Odds [View article]
    Who attacked robbed and pillaged China first ? Why the Chinese themselves. In ancient times they expanded along the Yellow River driving out any competitors to their hegemony. It's a bit like what the Romans did with the Etruscans.

    So I do have the gall to make such an accusation.
    Oct 1, 2010. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CGTS TRADING SIGNALS SLIDE SHOW: FOR THURSDAY, 30 SEPTEMBER 2010. Australian Dollar, Euro giving sell signals; US Dollar covers against Chinese Yuan [View instapost]
    We'll see what happens. My brother mentioned something interesting to me last night. He said that no country that started a war in the 20'th century, ever won it. Apparently this came from from a Tom Clancy novel. I wonder if this is also applicable to trade, and as such, also in the 21'st Century.

    I see there is some Chinese woman that's reading you the Riot Act on another blog. My advice ... patience ... sooner or later she will contradict herself ... and then you can take her apart at your leisure. People like her always end up contradicting themselves ... you'll know you're winning when the only argument she can put forth is an argument of consequences i.e : You approve my point of view ... or else ... such a type of argument is the weakest one some people can ultimately put forth.

    I did some Dylan Thomas poetry at school. I'll readily admit that my knowledge of poetry is scant ... but I must admit to an admiration for Oscar Wilde ...
    Oct 1, 2010. 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade War Tuesday: China, Japan and U.S. at Odds [View article]
    This is a link to a site that discusses the Imperial Aspirations of China. It is written from a Japanese perspective ...

    ampontan.wordpress.com.../
    Sep 30, 2010. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CGTS TRADING SIGNALS SLIDE SHOW: FOR THURSDAY, 30 SEPTEMBER 2010. Australian Dollar, Euro giving sell signals; US Dollar covers against Chinese Yuan [View instapost]
    Do you believe the USD will rally once deflation really sets in ? I see the US Congress initiated a tariff war against China due to the Yuan. Can you speculate on the ramifications ? Me, looking at the latter event am pretty sure that the World has changed, and nobody seems to see the significance. I just wish I knew what would happen ...

    If I had to guess, China will loose access to a significant market. They will retaliate with a total Rare Earth export ban. So there will be rise in Military Tensions. They will inflate their economy even more, thus postponing and aggravating their eventual crash.

    All things considered, this means the Yuan will decline against the Dollar instead of rising. In this beggar-thy-neighbor currency devaluation, the weakest link is the Dollar. It is SO easy to devalue against the Dollar. You just go out and buy some.

    You know that when Fed starts to print, it means they will buy bonds, and bond rates will fall, while also sucking up any other liquidity in the market. So there will be a lot of Dollars somewhere doing NOTHING for a long time. It is the FLOW of Dollars that matter, not the TOTAL AMOUNT of Dollars. Hence the Dollar will rise against everything.

    I know full well that the thesis might be flawed. So kindly correct me if I'm wrong. I don't want to go gently into the night ...
    Sep 30, 2010. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hindenburg Omen Blog - September, 2010 [View instapost]
    It also seems that while the US can't really devalue, they've opted for tariffs instead. Are we looking at an incarnation of Smoot-Hawley here ? No wonder the dollar is so weak.

    www.zerohedge.com/arti...
    Sep 29, 2010. 07:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hindenburg Omen Blog - September, 2010 [View instapost]
    It seems this latest run-up also has to do with the avoidance of possible tax hikes in 2011.

    online.wsj.com/article...
    Sep 29, 2010. 07:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hindenburg Omen Blog - September, 2010 [View instapost]
    What in blazes is going on in the markets ? Is this the last hurrah before the Gates of Hell open ?????
    Sep 24, 2010. 02:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Technical Analysis Discussion Blog for September 2010 [View instapost]
    My thanks to you for your efforts. It seems I must study Elliot Wave Theory.
    Sep 17, 2010. 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Technical Analysis Discussion Blog for September 2010 [View instapost]
    Thanks, so you think this bull market in the Yen is nearly over then ? I find it interesting that the Yen was at a secular lows in the late 70's & early 80's. Just when USTB's were set to embark on their secular bull run ...
    Sep 16, 2010. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Technical Analysis Discussion Blog for September 2010 [View instapost]
    If the Yen strengthens despite the BOJ, can this cause inflationary cascades in other markets ?
    Sep 16, 2010. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hindenburg Omen Blog - September, 2010 [View instapost]
    An SA article about bonds being overvalued and the S&P being undervalued. I'll be blunt when I say that the HO is getting headwinds here. So I've now become a believer, and ditched all them goodlooking rational bubblevision approved numbers. So this me hoping for some help from Above. And then I took a peek at the chart of AAPL and didn't like what I saw ...

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Sep 16, 2010. 04:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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