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Sahwa

Sahwa
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  • A Positive Outlook On Mongolia [View article]
    Hi Jon,

    there could be number of reasons. What matters more is how it went than how it was written about. The article could have been written while the book building was still going on or it could be that the arranging banks could have taken 20% ($300mn) by themselves.

    The rate was expected as per our email. The proxy (DBM 17, 5s under MoF guarantee) was trading between 4.4-4.9% given the sov prem of 50bp, the price rage was on target.
    Nov 29, 2012. 10:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Positive Outlook On Mongolia [View article]
    Hi Jon,

    Just to add,

    5s were x12 oversubscribed and 10s were x9-10 oversubscribed.

    I think they were quoting while book was still building.
    Nov 29, 2012. 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto Vs. Mongolia, Destination Unknown [View article]
    Correction. The presidential election last time was 25 May hence the new election is likely in May 2013, although it has not been announced.
    Nov 21, 2012. 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto Vs. Mongolia, Destination Unknown [View article]
    Just some public info released by S&P and Fitch.

    S&P rated the new sovereign bond as BB-.

    Fitch has given B+.

    Shame on both.....

    Reflecting on how S&P reported on potential bond from Mongolian Resources Corp (AK), an iron ore mine, it is difficult to accept any of their ratings allocation for Mongolian assets. If you have time, please compare Moody's and S&P reports. They couldn't have been further apart.

    Fitch is better but still some investors are finding it difficult to believe these....

    A victorious day for Mongolia.
    Nov 21, 2012. 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto Vs. Mongolia, Destination Unknown [View article]
    Hi KingFox,

    The local election matters as platform to control local projects. But it is more of an indication of confidence. What matters more is the next March Presidential election which will have a significant bearing on where Mongolia is heading for next 4 years. The presidential veto is at stake.

    From my last conversation with Ministry of Mining, they have intention of having up to 60 mines as strategic assets. This puts just about every 'operational' mine in the country into the bucket.

    The most interesting thing for the time being is the sovereign bond which is on a road show as we speak. If this fails/ gets delayed, all hell break loose...
    Nov 20, 2012. 05:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto Vs. Mongolia, Destination Unknown [View article]
    Hi there,

    I had the exact same conversation with a lawyer this afternoon...

    He/She mentioned Venezuela and Russia as example both of which have a very strong political leader/leadership. In Mongolia, if the PM gets vote of no confidence in his own party tomorrow, no one is going to care.... They do no have strong military to enforce the will of the leaders either...

    However, the thought is indeed intriguing but appear remote possibility for the time being.
    Nov 19, 2012. 09:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Investment Climate At The Moment: Uh-Oh [View article]
    Goldozone,

    Just playing devils advocate, this is slightly unfair. We are all greedy and want to maximise our return. We cannot say that they are unique in any shape or form.

    Question is just how and when do we find the middle ground we can all agree to play on.

    The level of poverty in UB disheartens many of us. The young and abandoned children live in underground sewer network. It hurts to see so many young children suffering. For them survival is the paramount task for each day. In a condition where -20'C is relatively a warm day, life is tough, many people like me will defend the Mongolian people (not government) with all we have.

    The people have all the rights to be greedy as it is all theirs to begin with.

    I am not a Mongolian nor married to a Mongolian nor dating a Mongolian. But we do feel sympathy for those who suffer so much. I am sure I will be the same if I am in their shoes. Can anyone say they will not?
    Nov 14, 2012. 12:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Investment Climate At The Moment: Uh-Oh [View article]
    Good article indeed.

    There are a few things I would love to comment but I am not allow to speak in an open forum.

    A couple public information to share:

    Last week S&P published a ratings advice on MMC citing change of railroad development plan. The government of Mongolia (likely Ministry of Economic Development) has announced that all railroad will be planned, built and financed by the government. The private sector is welcomed to take a minority stake and join the financing.

    This puts MMC in a very awkward position given their bond outstanding and current railroad plan. If the gov decides to reimburse the expenses already incurred under existing, soon to be cancelled, agreement, MMC has ca. USD60m unintended bill with GOM...

    This change will put the railroad plan behind by considerable amount and likely to further hamper investor positioning in Mongolian assets and development plan.

    Just to demonstrate the ad-hoc nature of the business environment, late Friday afternoon, 4-5pm 9th Nov 2012) government announced that 14th Nov would be a national holiday to celebrate the birthday of Great Chinggis Khan. The decision whether 26th Nov is to be another National Holiday (unlikely but still pending). This has impacted many business trips and meetings which people desperately try to organise before the harsh December.
    Nov 13, 2012. 12:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
8 Comments
17 Likes