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I have a pair of engineering degrees and an MBA. Been a full time investor since 1995.
Recessions were always easy to see coming, and to prepare for, but the Fed has screwed up my crystal ball. What we have brewing now is 10x bigger and harder to fix than anything we have seen so far, it may be harder than the Great Depression. It is very hard to prepare for.
My current thoughts include How long the dollar has as the top of the heap. Each year we lose ground and lately this has been accelerating. Don't look at UUP or DXY, they are meaningless. Look at how the yuan is rising, that means something.
Another thought of mine is the talk of 'taper'. My gut feeling is that it won't be allowed by
president Obama while he is in office, the resulting recession will ruin his 'legacy', every president wants a good legacy. They tend to hand off recessions to the next guy.
I have become quite the fan of Robert Triffin, this economist never was given the recognition he deserved, but his time is coming. Look him up, his work is prophetic.
So.... My bio.... I was confused. Now I am frightened.
Update June11,2013... I am not frightened anymore. In the past we had the yield curve to predict recessions, but the Fed has manipulated it to being useless. In retrospect, it isn't the yield curve, but the presidential cycle that drives the Fed and yields. I am just following the cycle now. 2016 is D-Day.
Bonds, Commodities, Dividend stock ideas & income, ETFs, Energy stocks, Foreign stocks, Gold, Mutual funds, Options, Retirement savings, Stocks - long, Stocks - short, Tech stocks
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