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PeckerEDU

PeckerEDU
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  • Brief Rebuttal Of Citron Research's Report On Zillow [View article]
    The right or wrong is pointless as you are retail. Go short the shares and I will get you squeezed. We compare returns in a month. Arguing stocks is pointless.

    Icahn and Soros bought Herbalife against Ackman's shorts. That's how they disagree.

    You can use your mental costs and shares to flex your muscle. It's your mental game. We play the game with dollars.

    I am long since May and I am still holding tight. Go short the shares at your 2%, I don't care.

    Go short if you like. Come back, and we both post a 1 month return in a month. If you can't do that. You don't have to embarass yourself by saying oh I am retail I trade $10 per trade.

    I hate educating you. So naive about the market and mechanics. Why don't you tell Soros and Icahn you borrow shares cheaper than them in Herbal life as well? You are indeed cheaper than them because you borrow 497k shares.

    We don't place a trade that size. You are cheaper, then what? What's your return? Do you dare to go short?

    yes you are cheaper...no pun intended.

    Soros, Icahn and us are more costly.
    Sep 27 05:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brief Rebuttal Of Citron Research's Report On Zillow [View article]
    In case you don't know what blocks are. today is a good time to Google it.
    Sep 27 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brief Rebuttal Of Citron Research's Report On Zillow [View article]
    My naive friend, when hedge fund short a stock, it's not as you retail guys. For a stock that trades a million shares, it's a lot more complicated. We locate shares and engage agreenment to buy back at a certain price in case of a squeeze.

    Block trades and "block" shares for a stock are common of small market cap shares. There will be a lot more cost than you buy or short one share.

    Z is not like AAPL or GOOG where you can find shares to borrow and trade easily.

    That's why hedge fund don't trade through Fidelity.

    Also as you might not know, when you "borrow" the shares, you don't cover when you want to. The lenders who you never meet will have a say when to have you stop out.

    We borrow in different terms and we have to locate, negotiate. Most importantly we do things more complex. Blocks, agreements, margins, all that.

    The borrowing costs go higher once you need to borrow more and create complex terms.

    There are no hedge fund trade like $10 fidelity per trade like you. That's why you are a small and naive potato too.
    Sep 27 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brief Rebuttal Of Citron Research's Report On Zillow [View article]
    If you don't understand or don't know why there is difference between institutional desk and retail broker like Fidelity, it's time you do some research.

    First, you will never be able to borrow thos shares. Second, the margin and cover timing and terms are different. Third, when you try to borrow many, you will be told you can't borrow or you are subject to approval.

    That's why ETFs for treasury and commodities are created for people like you. Retail investor.
    Sep 27 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brief Rebuttal Of Citron Research's Report On Zillow [View article]
    MDaceUT & Renmycat,

    I fully agree wtih you guys. Again I hate to point out this again and again, shorting Zillow is very costly. The borrowing cost is north of 20% p.a., and retail investors can't borrow at all. They probably "short" in their phantom accounts or mentally.

    Why did Google lose money in the first 4-5 years before IPO? Why did Amazon lose money in the first 4-5 years after IPO?

    They are spending money to grow, and their valuation is based on FUTURE value. The were losing money because they chose to. AMZN profit margin is less than 1% in 2012 and 2013? Why?

    Not because they can't make money, but because:
    1. they invest heavily in R&D
    2. they invest heavily in marketing and customer service
    3. they invest heavily to build up the moat

    If some people still don't understand it, why did the US and Soviet Union "lost" so much money on arms race? are the money wasted? no. They both wanted dominant position. Simple. By doing what? Outrace the No.2.

    Why did Zillow lose money? They want to leave competitors far behind. Why did they have a secondary offering recently?

    Yes, let's assume some retail investors can borrow, at institutional desk, at 2% per month. Big deal, the stock went down 10%, you made 8% in a month.

    Then what?

    In the past 52 weeks, Zillow went from 23 to 103 peak. I am sure a lot of money made 8%, 10% or 12% and I bless them. A lot more got burned. They were shorting the stock.I am not jealous. I thank them for increasing the volume and price when they bought back.

    I only made 120% from my initial long position and I posted here on SA. Welcome to check it out. We are investors living in different dimensions.

    I am a carnivore and I am ok if some scavengers eat rotten meat. and dirt or hebivores eat vegetables. good luck to them.

    Like I pointed out in my post in May, do you want to invest in a company that trades at 50 times PE, saving all the investment, or the company that trades at negative earnings, but invested every penny to grow the business to keep and increase their moat?

    In investing, time is our best friend. In my previous work experience at two top investment banks and a hedge fund, I learned, arguing doesn't make money.

    Investing your money where your mouth is does make money. My ex-boss also told me "give it 3 months and if this stock doesn't beat index, you take my seat"

    And he is right most of the time.

    In investing, too many people zoom in on the current and the past. That's wrong. You should look into the future. There are pretty smart people and smart money on the street? How do you beat them?

    You have to look further into the future, have longer patience, see things others don't see. It's alright. Many investors did not think too much of Facebook and Google and eBay.

    Most did not think much of PCLN, because by definition, if it's not an overlooked stock, it could not have increased 100 times, yes, 100x, not 100% in the past decade.

    I don't want to educate the short sellers. Instead, I give them my best. Any any given point, I am happy to compare my notes and my returns, on this stock or on my entire porfolio.
    Sep 26 10:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brief Rebuttal Of Citron Research's Report On Zillow [View article]
    GS Analytics did a great job.

    Understanding how tech companies behave and evolve is a critical job. The fund that I respect most in the field is Tiger Global, who invested in Facebook, LinkedIn, Yandex, Zynga, etc., just to name a few.

    If you ask Tiger, you will know, how fierce the competition is to gain a dominant position, to capture the first mover advantage and build up the moat.

    Remember, Zillow is riding the shift from offline to online. the value of the company, is dependent on the network effect. Yes, they are buying revenue. Who isn't?

    Google buys revenue from hiring the best engineers.
    Yahoo put on ads outdoords.
    Windows put ads.
    Even Apple has huge ads on ipods, iphones all over the world.

    If you study strategy, you will find out eBay, in its early stage, bought revenue and traffic with AOL with a spending worth more than $200m.

    I personally hate this arguing about stocks, and who's right, who's wrong. Pointless.

    Let's give it 3 months to run, if Z doesn't outperform NASDAQ, I will admit I am wrong.

    For good and for bad, I posted my positions about half a year ago and my returns. Let's stay tuned.

    Investing is a great game and the judge is the truth-the market will show who's right.
    Sep 25 06:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Adding Zillow To My Short Portfolio [View article]
    you are right. I can email you privately what about my gains. Don't mean to brag about it but it's serious money.
    Sep 24 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman: Into The Dow, Out Of Your Portfolio [View article]
    Book value is not a good metric. Many of the assets are not generating revenue and there are two revenue drivers book value won't show:
    1. the people that are driving the businesses. I used to work at GS and clearly there are no book value for good teams coming and leaving.
    2. over market; fixed income revenue will decline due to yield rises etc. (the go go years for treasuries and high yield are coming to a stop)

    Investment banks are different animals to analyze.
    Just my two cents. Like your thesis overall.
    Sep 23 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MGIC Poised To Soar [View article]
    very good article. I like your thoughts on the macro side and scenarios. What do you foresee to be some major catalysts?
    Sep 23 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Adding Zillow To My Short Portfolio [View article]
    FYI, I made 120%+ and I posted it here:
    http://bit.ly/17X41cj

    On wallstreet, many people said they bought in March of 2009 and sold on top. Many claimed they bought gold futures before Bernanke said no tapering.

    Yeah, a guy went long gold futures and made 10million. That's not you.

    Well, I showed my record of 120%+, let's see yours. Don't be ashamed if you can't show it. It's alright.

    Many people brag and fake. Talk is cheap. Isn't it? haha
    Sep 23 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Adding Zillow To My Short Portfolio [View article]
    you really made me laugh. citron went short on Tesla and USANA and got squeezed too. Hey show me the shares you borrowed. Be a man. Don't short phantom shares in your mind.
    Sep 23 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Adding Zillow To My Short Portfolio [View article]
    Show us! Let's see how good an investor you are.
    Sep 19 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Adding Zillow To My Short Portfolio [View article]
    Show us your trade records, how much you lost? come on, be a man. Show us.
    Sep 18 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Oriental: At Least 20% Upside On Margin Expansion [View article]
    You are very very wrong. The most recent quarterly shows enrollment by student number only increased 7% while the price went up 20% to get that 26% revenue increase.

    It is not sustainable. Margin will not improve but deteriorate. EDU is a long term conviction short.
    Sep 16 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Adding Zillow To My Short Portfolio [View article]
    Fully agreed. I can tell MDaceUT is a top trader. It's funny Amit said he went short on zillow. The options are not liquid and shares are too expensive to be borrowed.

    My institutional desk confirmed that retail guys like him can't borrow shares at all. then how did he go short?

    Mentally short I guess, hahahaha..
    Sep 16 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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