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  • I Guess Netflix Trades Exclusively On Subscriber Numbers [View article]
    I am curious on how Amazon is paying for content. I am a Prime sub, but exclusively for the 2-day shipping.

    If Amazon is paying owners for content and counting me as a sub (for determining price), then they are not getting good value.
    Apr 16, 2015. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Guess Netflix Trades Exclusively On Subscriber Numbers [View article]
    No. Apple TV is another source for Netflix subscribers and revenue.
    Apr 16, 2015. 10:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Guess Netflix Trades Exclusively On Subscriber Numbers [View article]
    Of course, every other stock trade is done only because it means an angel gets it's wings.
    Apr 16, 2015. 04:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix's Insane Valuation Actually Makes Sense [View article]
    Name the one piece of (non original) content that will make or break Netflix?

    Once you realize you can't, it becomes clear that Netflix has some control over content fees. It is easier for Netflix to drop content than it is for the content owners to drop $X00 millions of revenue per year (via Netflix contracts).

    Netflix doesn't even need to explain dropping the content to it's subs as no one realistically expects all content produced for $8 a month.

    The content owners WILL need to explain why their revenue took a hit for a particular reporting period.
    Apr 16, 2015. 02:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Netflix's Earnings Really Prove [View article]
    Where would you go that provides better overall value?
    Apr 16, 2015. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would Moderate Growth Mean For Aflac? [View article]
    Great article. Not ready to invest yet, but this kicked off me starting to investigate AFL.
    Apr 15, 2015. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall: Still Worth The Risks Given Its Search For Leadership And Opportunities For Growth [View article]
    True that nothing has changed with Outerwall.

    Physical media rental (including kiosks) remains in decline. Growth opportunities that would temper the decline of kiosks are almost non-existent.

    Until they actually have a business that has a chance to replicate previous Redbox growth, then there is little reason to believe that the stock will do anything but remain stagnant.

    That is until kiosks show sustained double digit declines, which is when the stock will tank. That level of kiosk decline might happen in 2015, and almost certainly will happen in 2016.
    Apr 10, 2015. 02:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deal makes 'Star Wars' films available for downloadable purchasing [View news story]
    This is interesting. It is going to have a profound impact om Q2 Home Video revenue.

    Based on the reception, you might even see EST surpass Blu-ray sales in Q2 2015.
    Apr 7, 2015. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Battle With Piracy Likely Shapes Future Of The Box Office [View article]
    One of the articles basic premises is that piracy is more convenient than Netflix. That is totally inaccurate.

    Piracy of music WAS more convenient than buying a CD and ripping it to your computer, but watching House of Cards via Netflix (from your Roku or game console) is about as easy and convenient as media consumption gets.
    Mar 3, 2015. 01:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix vs. the pirates [View news story]
    Some info on China's pay tv market:

    "China's pay-TV market generated revenues of US$5.6 billion in 2010, up 31.1 percent from the previous year, with growth driven by cable digitalisation and a nine percent increase in pay-TV households."

    "The numbers are big. Official figures quoted at the recent 21st annual China Content and Broadcasting Network (CCBN) conference indicate that China has 400 million TV households, of which 210 million subscribe to cable TV (CATV)."
    Mar 2, 2015. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix vs. the pirates [View news story]
    "For five of the top 10 countries for “House of Cards” season 3 pirates — China, India, Australia, Poland and Greece — Netflix service is currently not available (although the company plans to launch in Oz later this month)."

    Sounds like most of the issue will be mitigated with international expansion.
    Mar 1, 2015. 01:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall Inc.: Undervalued Due To Leadership Uncertainty, But Worth The Risk [View article]
    The risk to Outerwall is whether declines in kiosk revenue accelerate to match the decline of the rest of packaged media.

    Kiosks were down 4.4% in 2014, compared to drops of 18.27% for subscription disc rentals and 27.13% for B&M disc rentals.

    At $1.81 billion per year, kiosk disc rentals have a lot of room to drop and drop quickly.

    For some perspective, B&M disc rentals ended 2011 at $1.599 billion and ended 2014 at $696 million.

    That fact that ALL disc rental markets are in decline should be a massive warning sign of secular change by consumers. It is not hard to imagine the scenario where the 4.4% decline in kiosk revenue in 2014 is followed by a 10% decline in 2015.

    All Outerwall investors should honestly be assessing the impact to the stock if the secular shift results in kiosk revenue declining by double digits every year.
    Feb 19, 2015. 04:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Future Of Disney's Subscription OTT Strategy [View article]
    Disney, Marvel and (probably Lucas) will all be streaming on Netflix starting with 2016 releases.

    And if I remember correctly, they will be streaming in the Pay TV window.
    Feb 6, 2015. 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Beats Again...Sorta [View article]
    Based on the numbers, it looks like Netflix is paying for a portion of it's content before it is hitting the P&L. That is probably even moreso for international where they are likely signing contracts before even launching in a region. That is why they would need to raise cash even while hitting their quarterly margin goals.

    What domestic margin is showing us is that long term Netflix can manage content acquisition in a region to hit long term margin goals. It would be beneficial to this discussion if they also released these margin number on other individual regions, however I am guessing that detailed information would also be highly beneficial to competitors.

    International cost will likely be a drag while they continue to expand over the next couple of years. But that does not mean long term margin goals are not possible. That is why it is important to watch the margin numbers of the mature domestic market.
    Jan 21, 2015. 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Beats Again...Sorta [View article]
    It is actually not hard to figure out.

    The mature market (US Streaming) saw contribution margin go from 23.4% in Q4 2013 to 28.0% in Q4 2014. The forecast is for it to go up to 30.1% in Q1 2015 with the eventual goal of 40%.

    International losses have increased, partially because Netflix has become increasingly aggressive in international expansion. The cost of that international expansion has put a crimp on overall margins, but that is to be expected.
    Jan 21, 2015. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment