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  • Netflix's Battle With Piracy Likely Shapes Future Of The Box Office [View article]
    One of the articles basic premises is that piracy is more convenient than Netflix. That is totally inaccurate.

    Piracy of music WAS more convenient than buying a CD and ripping it to your computer, but watching House of Cards via Netflix (from your Roku or game console) is about as easy and convenient as media consumption gets.
    Mar 3, 2015. 01:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix vs. the pirates [View news story]
    Some info on China's pay tv market:

    "China's pay-TV market generated revenues of US$5.6 billion in 2010, up 31.1 percent from the previous year, with growth driven by cable digitalisation and a nine percent increase in pay-TV households."
    http://bit.ly/1DMeMNW

    "The numbers are big. Official figures quoted at the recent 21st annual China Content and Broadcasting Network (CCBN) conference indicate that China has 400 million TV households, of which 210 million subscribe to cable TV (CATV)."

    http://bit.ly/1DMeLd0
    Mar 2, 2015. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix vs. the pirates [View news story]
    "For five of the top 10 countries for “House of Cards” season 3 pirates — China, India, Australia, Poland and Greece — Netflix service is currently not available (although the company plans to launch in Oz later this month)."

    http://bit.ly/1zvF4PH

    Sounds like most of the issue will be mitigated with international expansion.
    Mar 1, 2015. 01:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall Inc.: Undervalued Due To Leadership Uncertainty, But Worth The Risk [View article]
    The risk to Outerwall is whether declines in kiosk revenue accelerate to match the decline of the rest of packaged media.

    Kiosks were down 4.4% in 2014, compared to drops of 18.27% for subscription disc rentals and 27.13% for B&M disc rentals.

    At $1.81 billion per year, kiosk disc rentals have a lot of room to drop and drop quickly.

    For some perspective, B&M disc rentals ended 2011 at $1.599 billion and ended 2014 at $696 million.

    That fact that ALL disc rental markets are in decline should be a massive warning sign of secular change by consumers. It is not hard to imagine the scenario where the 4.4% decline in kiosk revenue in 2014 is followed by a 10% decline in 2015.

    All Outerwall investors should honestly be assessing the impact to the stock if the secular shift results in kiosk revenue declining by double digits every year.
    Feb 19, 2015. 04:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look At The Future Of Disney's Subscription OTT Strategy [View article]
    Disney, Marvel and (probably Lucas) will all be streaming on Netflix starting with 2016 releases.

    And if I remember correctly, they will be streaming in the Pay TV window.
    Feb 6, 2015. 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Beats Again...Sorta [View article]
    Based on the numbers, it looks like Netflix is paying for a portion of it's content before it is hitting the P&L. That is probably even moreso for international where they are likely signing contracts before even launching in a region. That is why they would need to raise cash even while hitting their quarterly margin goals.

    What domestic margin is showing us is that long term Netflix can manage content acquisition in a region to hit long term margin goals. It would be beneficial to this discussion if they also released these margin number on other individual regions, however I am guessing that detailed information would also be highly beneficial to competitors.

    International cost will likely be a drag while they continue to expand over the next couple of years. But that does not mean long term margin goals are not possible. That is why it is important to watch the margin numbers of the mature domestic market.
    Jan 21, 2015. 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Beats Again...Sorta [View article]
    It is actually not hard to figure out.

    The mature market (US Streaming) saw contribution margin go from 23.4% in Q4 2013 to 28.0% in Q4 2014. The forecast is for it to go up to 30.1% in Q1 2015 with the eventual goal of 40%.

    International losses have increased, partially because Netflix has become increasingly aggressive in international expansion. The cost of that international expansion has put a crimp on overall margins, but that is to be expected.
    Jan 21, 2015. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Expanding Original Content To The Big Screen [View article]
    Why Amazon Is Expanding Original Content To The Big Screen?

    Because they REALLY like to spend money and have enough revenue to keep on spending away.
    Jan 20, 2015. 03:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall CEO resigns; shares slide [View news story]
    Kiosk revenue in the US was $468.03 million in Q4 which is flat compared to 2013. That is actually a positive as it had been in decline all year.

    Was it flat due to pricing changes, and if so is guidance going to be lower for 2015? Overall, kiosk revenue was down 4.44% in 2014.

    EST revenue on new releases jumped 60% in 2014. New released are Redbox's bread and butter so they may be seeing a trend of new release dollars away from the kiosk model.

    http://bit.ly/1uks8Lf
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Fully Valued [View article]
    This is one of the best articles I have ever read on Netflix, and I follow them closely.
    Jan 14, 2015. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dish asks cord-cutters how does $20 per month sound? [View news story]
    Market is always skittish around Netflix.

    This really is not a Netflix alternative. If anything, people who are sports fans who ditch cable for this offering may be looking at Netflix as a way to add back some of the TV/movie offerings they may be missing.
    Jan 5, 2015. 10:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dish asks cord-cutters how does $20 per month sound? [View news story]
    Broadcast TV is an antenna away.

    This is a good deal for sports fans.

    It is a GREAT deal for NBA fans as the ESPN/TBS combo gets you most of the best match-ups of the year.
    Jan 5, 2015. 10:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix may be hard to box out [View news story]
    Too late for that. When they dipped below $70, someone should have offered $110 a share to buy them out.

    At their current market cap, they are probably too big to swallow.
    Dec 17, 2014. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nielsen's Decision To Measure Ratings Could Impact Netflix, Amazon Stock [View article]
    Netflix does not have to reveal much to demonstrate that Nielsen's estimates are crap.

    They would not even need to release total numbers. All they would have to do is release that the actual viewership ration was different to demonstrate that the estimate models simply do not reflect actual view rates.
    Nov 23, 2014. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nielsen's Decision To Measure Ratings Could Impact Netflix, Amazon Stock [View article]
    Nielsen itself will be far more exposed by this endeavor.

    If Netflix shows even once (with actual viewer data) that Nielsen's viewer estimate calculations are significantly off, then it could impact Nielsen's core business.


    Nielsen could find itself in the very unenviable position of trying to explain how they are a "trusted source" if actual viewing numbers are orders of magnitude off from their viewing estimates.
    Nov 21, 2014. 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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