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  • Outerwall Is A Great Contrarian Story [View article]
    As I said back in April. Q2 is going to be weak and Q3 is going to be even worse.

    It won't be until Q4 when there is a rebound. And the question for Redbox is how much of the secular decline of physical media going to impact the improved box office strength of Q4 rentals.


    Q2 YOY was weaker and was predictable for anyone paying attention.

    "How this actually plays out will be interesting, but right now it looks like Outerwall will get a boost after Q1 earnings and be ripe for a drop after Q2 earnings."
    Jul 30, 2015. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yelp: Don't Stop Believing [View article]
    Well said.

    On one hand, Yelp does nothing to help small businesses even when users post downright false information. They have zero mechanism for working with business owners who are attacked by former employees, contractors, etc.

    Then they call asking those businesses for money.


    Broken business model. Why ANY business would give money to Yelp is beyond me. Much better advertising return working with Google and Facebook.
    Jul 28, 2015. 07:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sorting Out The Spin From Amazon's Prime Day [View article]
    The whole event was very ass-tastic. I have been on Prime since early 2012, and this fiasco has me exploring other options.

    I actually have started looking at Walmart.com as an alternative.
    Jul 17, 2015. 08:19 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rogers, Shaw aim at Netflix in Canada by opening streaming service [View news story]
    Just got back from BC visiting family. Shaw is about as popular as Comcast.

    Don't see many people lining up to give them more money when there are better options available.
    May 27, 2015. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall Is A Great Contrarian Story [View article]
    Yes, DVD sales and rentals correlate.

    Strength of releases impacts revenue for each. On the rental side, Redbox is particularly impacted by strength of new releases.
    May 2, 2015. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall Is A Great Contrarian Story [View article]
    We have had back to back weeks (to start Q2) where DVD sell-through was under $60 million. Prior to the last two weeks, I cannot find ANY week where DVD sell-through was < $60 million. I am sure they exist, but it is probably back in the formats infancy.

    $54.8 million for a week is an unprecedented low water mark for DVD sell through. At $22.06 million, Blu-ray is also incredibly low. I can only see a handful of weeks since 2013 where Blu-ray sell through revenue was lower.

    And this summers hits won't matter at all for Redbox until Q4 (at the earliest).

    For Q2 it looks like the biggest releases will be Selma and American Sniper. Maybe Fifty Shades of Grey will get some sort of rental traction. Other than that, Q2 is going to be brutal.
    Apr 30, 2015. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall Is A Great Contrarian Story [View article]
    B&M has been declining swiftly for quite some time. Kiosks have had up quarters in the recent past, but up 7.7% is higher than I would have expected.

    Probably higher than the market expects which likely means a decent jump for Outerwall.

    Will it be sustainable? Probably not (kiosks have been in decline starting in 2013).

    The first two weeks of Q2 have been brutal for physical media sellthrough (down 44.1% and down 56.7% for optical disc and down 56.2% and down 58.7% for Blu-ray). As strength of releases has a major impact on sellthrough, that is a pretty good sign that Q2 may be rough on Outerwall if the trend continues.


    How this actually plays out will be interesting, but right now it looks like Outerwall will get a boost after Q1 earnings and be ripe for a drop after Q2 earnings.
    Apr 30, 2015. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Now May Be The Time To Buy Intel [View article]
    I want to know if Continuum requires Intel hardware.
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall Is A Great Contrarian Story [View article]
    The raw info is generally released by the DEG a few days or a couple of weeks after it is released to the media.

    Here is a link to the media summary as presented by Deadline.

    http://bit.ly/1JDpo6Z
    Apr 30, 2015. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall Is A Great Contrarian Story [View article]
    It looks like kiosks had a very good Q1, up 7.7% to $535.5 million (up from $497.2 million in Q1 2014). That is a good sign for kiosks especially since disc sales were down > 13% in Q1.

    Good info to be aware of ahead of OUTR earnings. There may be a nasty short squeeze based on Q1 numbers. Should be posted by the DEG in the next day or two.
    Apr 29, 2015. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall Is A Great Contrarian Story [View article]
    I think improvements in the source will have some visible improvement on a 1080p display. That said, the consumer does not even care enough about HD discs (Blu-ray) for it to surpass DVD in marketshare.

    Think about that. Some 9 years after it's release, Blu-ray has still not caught up to DVD and might never do it. BD marketshare was 31.8% in 2013 and 32.3% in 2014 (it is currently tracking at 32.4% in 2015 and down 14.5% so far YTD).

    The idea that physical media is going to have sort of revival due to quality increases does not make any sense based on consumer behavior. Even with the massive adoption of HDTV, the HD disc based format (Blu-ray) is still in decline and lagging CURRENT DVD sales (not to mention how pathetic the numbers are compared to DVD peaks).

    Movies on disc had a great run (starting 18 years ago). But there is no consumer trend that suggests that there is anything that is going to stop the ongoing decline.
    Apr 21, 2015. 08:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall Is A Great Contrarian Story [View article]
    I am not aware of any studios who have signed up to release on 4k BD. You can't have a viable format unless studios are releasing new titles and important catalog.

    I am not sure why studios would be rushing to embrace 4k BD. Blu-ray is already in decline (down 8.7% for 2014) with DVD continuing it's decline (down 11.8% last year). At it's best, Blu-ray accounted for 32.3% of physical media sell through market-share. There is a very possibility that Blu-ray will NEVER pass DVD in market-share.

    If increased quality did not spur new growth (optical disc revenue as a whole has been in decline pretty much since Blu-ray was released) and Blu-ray will never be a market leader, why would the studios want to invest in a new format that will be even more niche than Blu-ray? Particularly when electronic sell through (EST) WAS up 30.4% in 2014.


    For additional perspective. Blu-ray sell through did $2.25 billion in 2014. EST did $1.551 billion in 2014. If those trends continue, EST will be just under Blu-ray in revenue in 2015. With the Star Wars release, EST could surpass Blu-ray in 2015.

    As a studio, you need to be looking past physical media for revenue growth opportunities.
    Apr 21, 2015. 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall Is A Great Contrarian Story [View article]
    You stated "its unlikely that you will see a decline in 2015", which I took to mean you saying that kiosk revenue would not decline in 2015. I would disagree with that statement.

    Revenue has declined the last two years even with price hikes, which means that volume is definitely down. Based on the trends of physical media as a whole (down across the board in every category and format) I would expect kiosk declines to accelerate.

    Kiosks being down 8-12% in 2015 would not be surprising.

    I would be interested in hearing what percentage you mean when you use the terms "really fast" declines vs "not so fast".

    Per the DEG, kiosk revenue was $1.81 billion in 2014 (versus $1.94 billion in 2012). What would you expect it to be 5 years from now?
    Apr 21, 2015. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall Is A Great Contrarian Story [View article]
    Box office for Home Video releases in 2014 was $10.450 billion versus $10.589 billion in 2013. Down. Yes, but barely.

    Historically once a Home Video category starts to decline it never bounces back. I have not seen anything that suggests that kiosks will be any different. Whether this year or next, a double digit secular decline is coming. And as Outerwall is forced to close kiosks in response (or eat into their margins), that revenue decline will simply accelerate.

    And absolutely every single category of Home Video physical media is in decline. Even Blu-ray sales were down 8.7% in 2014 (they were up 4.8% in 2013.

    Good info is maintained by the enthusiasts here: http://bit.ly/1Gfvred
    Apr 21, 2015. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall Is A Great Contrarian Story [View article]
    The information that kiosks were down for 2014 is quite literally in the same table in the DEG report that you used to say that "the kiosk business has remained intact".

    Kiosks were also down 1.02% in 2013 versus down 4.44% is 2014, so the rate of decline is increasing on an annual basis.

    http://bit.ly/1GfgDw0


    Per the DEG, kiosk revenue was growing in 2011 (31.06%) and 2012 (15.59%) but has been in decline ever since.

    If it follows the plunging trend of physical media rental as a whole, it will likely be down double digits in 2015.
    Apr 21, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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