cjct

35 Comments

    • ON: Sat Oct 11th 18:06 PM
      Commented on:
      Can Oil Prices Stay Healthy?
      Scammy is absolutely correct. Oil was 65 during the roaring global economy of 2007...how on God's green earth can it stay at 80 in the midst of a global recession in 2008. I'm sorry dreamers, demand isn't growing "unabated." The notion that oil consumption wouldn't be affected by a global economic slowdown is just silly and everyone who has said that should join Lehman and Bear employees on the unemployment line.
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    • ON: Fri Oct 10th 04:45 AM
      Commented on:
      Roger Wiegand: Oil to Reach New Highs by Year-End
      By the way, DOE just reported that US use of petroleum products dropped to 1999 levels over the past 4-week period. I realize that facts can be inconvenient sometimes, but there's really no way to ignore demand destruction at these levels. Lots of price predictions in the above interview, but a conspicuous lack of supply/demand figures other than the T. Boone pickens slogan of 85 mbd production with 87 mbd demand. NEWS FLASH econ101 says that price adjusts to equilibriate supply and demand. If demand was really outpacing supply by 2 mbd we would be drawing down inventories at record pace.
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    • ON: Fri Oct 10th 04:34 AM
      Commented on:
      Roger Wiegand: Oil to Reach New Highs by Year-End
      Is this man serious...no really...is he serious??? He even admits that the US might endure a severe recession/depression that drags down emerging markets in Asia, but then says oil demand will continue to rise regardless of economic growth...It's people just like this who blindly hold to a idea (like the notion that housing could never fall) and allow themselves to lever 30:1 and collapse the banking system. I can't believe this person actually sucks up oxygen that the rest of us in America need. THIS MAN NEEDS TO GO!

      Riddle me this BATMAN? If all of these hedge funds are going under and are being forced to sell their oil positions...then who pray tell will be going long crude oil when the dust settles? I-banks...whoops none of them left; pension funds...i think they've learned their lesson...who...i repeat...who will be in a position to build long positions in an environment of global deleveraging and asset deflation.

      Sure the US and RoW are printing money like mad to try to re-inflate the sytem, but as we exist in a fractional-reserve banking system this really isn't creating inflation because the banks aren't lending.

      Once again, this man is sick...I could see how you could argue for 100/bbl by year's end, BUT 157/bbl...It's almost like some analysts get paid based on the degree of ridiculousness in their reports. I challenge this man to put his entire net worth in January 140 call options on WTI crude oil. If he's right he makes out like a bandit and if he's wrong (but wait he shouldn't because the system can collapse and oil demand will never go down!) then he loses everything and we can stop wasting our time clicking on links to his interviews.
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    • ON: Thu Oct 9th 17:27 PM
      Commented on:
      Is Oil Demand Falling Off a Cliff?
      OPEC signalling that it might have to cut production only serves to reinforce the sentiment in the market that the oil markets are way oversupplied. That any funds are going long crude oil in this environment is unthinkable.
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    • ON: Thu Oct 9th 17:20 PM
      Commented on:
      The Euro Shows Its Real Colors
      Euro has the fatal flaw of being governed by a single central bank but multiple national governments. This dichotomy can only be resolved in one of two ways.... 1) the euro disintegrates 2) a Eurozone gov't forms

      Which one do you think is more likely...I'll take the former.
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    • ON: Wed Oct 8th 12:59 PM
      Commented on:
      Global Financial Crisis Makes Oil a Great Hedge
      It's impossible for demand to outstrip supply as econ101 clearly states that price fluctuates to equilibrate D and S. Stop just repeating what Pickens is saying on CNBC, there can't be 87mbd demand with only 85mbd of production or we would be eating through all the oil inventories at rapid pace...clearly this isn't the case.
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    • ON: Fri Oct 3rd 02:56 AM
      Commented on:
      7 Rules For Investing During the Fourth Quarter
      Amen to the anti-cyclical comments. It really boggled the mind that people were saying "this time is different" for the cyclicals (energy, fertilizers, steel) because the global economy had decoupled from the US economy. No one seemed to mention that the US is the largest play on the world seen and it's consumers demand most of the products made by the RoW.
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    • ON: Fri Oct 3rd 02:52 AM
      Commented on:
      Potash Corp.: Poised to Soar Once Hedge Fund Worries Subside
      This thing is sinking like the titanic. That's the problem with "hot" stocks all the clowns who pumped it to ridiculously high levels all try to leave at the same time and send it to rediculously low levels...This sellof in POT is not over...the fertilizer story is dead...its a cyclical it cannot stay strong in a global economic slowdown...people have to admit that a fertilizer stock like POT at 240 was a little idiotic...i thought for a little while that they had found the cure for cancer with the excitement that some people had over owning this stock.
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    • ON: Fri Oct 3rd 02:47 AM
      Commented on:
      Trading ERO This Week
      While I do agree that there's nothing kosher about the Twin Deficits, as currencies are all relative I think that the US will come out of this downturn six months earlier than the eurozone because it entered it six months earlier. As to inflation, I think it's hard to imagine that inflation will be a problem even in an environment where the Fed continues to increase the money supply to fight deleveraging by ever financial institution. Deflation is likely to win out as the de-leveraging process continues to play out. As we can see by the recent liquidity injections, the Fed cannot add enough money to the system to prevent widespread asset deflation. Due to the characteristics of the fractional-reserve system, risk-aversion (deleveraging) can offset the central banks attempts to inflate our way out of this problem.
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    • ON: Thu Oct 2nd 17:02 PM
      Commented on:
      The Professor Of Commodities: Interview with James Doran (Part II)
      Amen...
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    • ON: Thu Oct 2nd 16:59 PM
      Commented on:
      The Bailout Plan Is Not a Cure-All But It Could Help
      Well thought-out... I don't think anyone behind the TARP actually thinks this a panacea for all that ills the US economy, but that is not a legitimate reason not to pass it. At this point any measures that help ease the freeze in inter-bank lending, however incremental these benefits might be, should be supported. I hate the reasoning offered by some legislators as to why they won't vote for the plan, "It's not guaranteed to work"...NEWS FLASH CONGRESS...nothing in life is full proof... The American Revolution wasn't a guaranteed success, does that mean the founders shouldn't have supported it?
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    • ON: Thu Oct 2nd 16:53 PM
      Commented on:
      Why Don't Earnings Matter Anymore?
      First of all stocks don't trade on history/past earnings they move on profit expectations. As of right now, earnings expectations are way to high for the entire commodities sector and will have to be adjusted downwards to reflect the fast-slowing global economy.
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    • ON: Thu Oct 2nd 16:51 PM
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Buying Massey Energy Ahead of Earnings
      Wow what an amazing call lets by cyclicals/companies extremely sensitive to the health of the global economy. You got what you deserved for joining the commodities group that was all to eager to say "this time is different."
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    • ON: Thu Oct 2nd 16:49 PM
      Commented on:
      Will Non-Farm Payroll Numbers Trigger a Rate Cut?
      I don't think there's any cause for the Fed to lower rates any more because it's clear that rates are not the issue, is the complete unwillingess of banks to lend to each other. The only measures that have proved even mildly effective have the been the liquidity injections in the money markets. Even as the Fed has lowered rates over 300bps it has done nothing to bring down the cost of borrowing for businesses or the consumer (just look at mortgage rates).
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    • ON: Thu Oct 2nd 16:46 PM
      Commented on:
      Trading ERO This Week
      Why not use securities like FXA or DRR to trade the USD/EUR, they're much more liquid. But as to your willingess to short the dollar, I don't think that's wise in the risk-averse environment where Treasuries are king.
      View article »
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