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  • Bakken - Single Well Economics  [View article]
    Nice work but something is wrong with the $ 84.5 NPV10 breakeven number for EOG.

    Read their recent Q3 10-Q. Look at profits of $ 791,000,000 excluding impairments and consider they sold at an average price of $ 45.90 per barrel.
    Jan 5, 2016. 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trillion Dollar Question: When Is OPEC Cutting Production?  [View article]
    Anybody's best guess is just as good as mine, but I assign the following probabilities for a production cut decided at one of the upcoming OPEC meetings:

    Dec 2015 25%
    Jun 2016 25%
    Dec 2016 25%
    Surprise meeting sometimes in 2016 25%
    Sep 11, 2015. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iran Curb Down Oil's Recent Rally?  [View article]
    'But the recent lift of sanctions on Iran'

    I dropped the article after reading the above idiotic statement.
    Apr 15, 2015. 07:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Falling Oil: Demand Destruction  [View article]
    The idea that we can abandon crude oil as a transportation fuel and replace it with electric motors coupled with high tech batteries is ludicrous at best.

    Why? Because we would need to charge all those batteries with energy the existing electric grid simply cannot deliver.

    It can be demonstrated we would need to build 200+ nuclear power plants (1,000 MWe each) to replace 100% of the diesel/gasoline consumption in the USA.

    Apr 14, 2015. 07:31 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rig Count Update March / April 2015  [View article]
    Interesting article that seems to confirm:

    1) Crude oil reserves are getting increasingly harder to find,

    2) GCC producers need much drilling to maintain production of depleting reservoirs.
    Apr 14, 2015. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does It Cost To Produce One Barrel Of Oil (BP, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, And Shell In 2014)?  [View article]
    The exploration cost numbers seem way too low.

    Many recent deals price development ready reserves at something like $ 15 per barrel. At least one other analyst says it costs more than $ 20 per barrel to find new reserves.
    Apr 9, 2015. 06:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CPI Really Didn't Cooperate  [View article]
    ''Severe oil price declines only occur during periods of global economic dislocation''

    I beg to disagree.

    the price of crude oil came down big times because Saudi Arabia cornered the market when they refused to cut back production last November.

    A lower crude oil price, even if only temporary, is a God send for the economies of countries that import crude oil.
    Feb 28, 2015. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Oil Shock?  [View article]
    Even if one were to electrify all of transport, industry, heating and so on, so much renewable generation and balancing/storage equipment would be needed to power it that astronomical new requirements for steel, concrete, copper, glass, carbon fibre, neodymium, shipping and haulage etc etc would appear.

    This is very true. If we were to replace all the transportation fleet (all the vehicules that consume diesel or gasoline) in the USA with EV's we would need 250 nuclear power plants (1,000 MWe each) to recharge the batteries.
    Feb 6, 2015. 07:29 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Mario Draghi Put A Floor Under Oil?  [View article]
    Mario Draghi would have put a floor under falling oil

    At best, this is wishful thinking.
    Jan 19, 2015. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline  [View article]
    Investors who still believe in a huge upside potential should check out the fine prints of the B warrants.

    These 'babies' get real ugly if the share price goes below the $ 3.25 strike price. In fact, in such circumstances, they convert into shares on a cashless basis (no proceeds to the company) and the number of shares can get quite large depending on how low the share price goes.
    Nov 12, 2014. 09:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline  [View article]
    I have noticed a number of times over the course of the last few months BMW's doing stop/start cycles when they stop at red lights. I saw Mercedez Bens cars do the same.

    There is the risk the big BMW order may never come.
    Nov 8, 2014. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline  [View article]
    The PbC battery is a promising product in grid regulation applications and in heavy transportation hybrid applications (where the low energy density is less of a problem).

    However, BMW, the unknown Japanese car manufacturer and NS have failed to come through with the paradigm news.


    The CEO resigned (officially he is very sick so nobody should think he has pulled the plug on the company...),

    The new CEO announced the last quarters results without any guidance or good spin,

    Last year's financing warrants were converted for 27 million shares (that is pre-reverse split) for $ 0.00 proceeds to the company,

    The up-coming financing will include warrants that will imply about 50% dilution on a fully diluted basis.

    A deep alpha opportunity with a clear timeline? I think not.

    Sep 25, 2014. 10:32 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiscal Policy Update: Revenue Still Strong  [View article]
    Although the fiscal revenues trend is encouraging, I do not think we have yet seen the full impact of Obamacare on spending.

    In the context of sub 2% real growth and a debt to GDP ratio approaching 100% (excluding, that is, the NPV of entitlements), a 3% fiscal deficit 5 years into the recovery is real bad news.

    There are fiscal structural problems in the economy that need to be addressed by congress urgently.
    Jul 14, 2014. 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Details Of Axion's Reverse Split Proposal  [View instapost]
    The reverse stock split allows to graduate from the OTC to the NASDAQ market. That's the way to go to create value for shareholders.

    The PbC battery is a good product that is already finding niche markets. However, the company will need to finance its future growth on better terms than those usually offered by vultures.
    May 3, 2014. 08:24 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Axion PIPE Share Overhang Estimates  [View instapost]
    We are up 60% in three days of trading with huge never seen before volume. Who is buying? Is this a bear squeeze?
    Mar 7, 2014. 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment