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jacobtr

jacobtr
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  • Volatility Outlook For September [View article]
    You talk about seasonality in volatility, but how does that stand up statistically? I looked at the data, and it looks like certain periods have SLIGHTLY higher percentages of rising volatility, and that certain extreme moves skew average volatility changes, making average change in volatility by calendar month meaningless. Have you looked at this? Thanks for the good article.
    Aug 28 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: Concerns Over Recent 10-Q Have No Merit [View article]
    So you've met Art and verified his investment history and done an SEC check on him, or are you also just relying on hearsay?

    It is possible that Sharesleuth makes up most of its facts out of the blue, and that only the sample I corroborated was 100% accurate. It's possible that a guy could join SA to comment obsessively on one stock and to viciously attack anyone who says anything negative on the stock is actually pure as the driven snow and not acting out of self-interest. It's possible that a "technology" company with almost no cumulative R&D spend could have world-changing technology superior to anything competitors with significantly greater research have developed. It's possible that a Chinese company issuing a constant barrage of press releases for American investors is on the cusp of an actual breakout. It's possible that professional investors could all be wrong in avoiding this stock and that the personal investors who typically underperform are right this time. I just see a bunch of red flags here.

    Ignore anything that doesn't fit with your get-rich-quick dreams, I don't care. Best of luck to you.
    Jul 31 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: Concerns Over Recent 10-Q Have No Merit [View article]
    Read the Sharesleuth report. I read this long before Art came on to SA to tout his one stock. I first found Sharesleuth through an expose on an ethanol company I had been researching and suspecting of being a total fraud. Turns out it was, and Sharesleuth had a great piece not only outlining most of what I found, but much more as well. When they came out with their second piece, on KNDI, I found it very compelling. He outlines the ownership of KDNI and the personal stake that Porcari has in it, through a reverse merge, etc.
    Jul 30 01:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: Concerns Over Recent 10-Q Have No Merit [View article]
    To me, the "credentials" of the people behind KNDI speak volumes. This isn't an ad hominem attack, but an honest appraisal of who I want to trust. This space (micro caps, and China, for that matter) is rife with self-dealing and dishonesty. When there aren't really existing financials to go on, the character and credibility of the people behind something really matter.
    When I see a Seeking Alpha author who only covers a single, obscure name, I get really nervous. When that same author has a history of run-ins with the SEC, and is a major shareholder through shell companies, etc., I stay away. I feel bad for people who lose money on pipe dreams where there was never any chance of success and they were only enriching someone else who knew the situation. IMHO, that's what this stock is.
    Jul 30 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contango And Backwardation Strategy For VIX ETFs [View article]
    Thanks, Doc. I've been using the same house edge analogy with VIX, and have spent hundreds of hours of research on it, and made some money. I was just hoping to assemble a portfolio of non-correlated similar strategies, but that may be wishful thinking.
    Jake
    Jul 29 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contango And Backwardation Strategy For VIX ETFs [View article]
    Doc, are there any other good contango plays out there? I've done BOIL in the past, but it's only so-so. I can't find anything else.
    Jul 28 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contango And Backwardation Strategy For VIX ETFs [View article]
    Actually, UVXY is 2x VXX.
    Jul 28 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ideas For An Ultra-Low Volatility Index Part II [View article]
    Why did you decide to test this over only a three year period? How does it perform over a couple of market cycles?
    Jul 28 10:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: Concerns Over Recent 10-Q Have No Merit [View article]
    These kind of comments are what made me confident that KNDI has nothing. A proponent of a real stock doesn't have to characterize arguments with which they disagree as "hit pieces" and doesn't respond so emotionally to every comment from the other side.
    Jul 24 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Money With Math Has Been Too Easy For Too Long [View article]
    4 months is not a sufficiently long test period. You need a full market cycle. If it is still doing well over the next 6 years, you will have a good case.
    Jul 23 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Money With Math Has Been Too Easy For Too Long [View article]
    Thank you for admitting you were wrong in your vehement assertions. That was a quite a long winded mea culpa. I think it's a good idea to be careful about what one puts in print.
    Jul 21 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Money With Math Has Been Too Easy For Too Long [View article]
    Right, and you forgot about transaction costs.
    Jul 19 01:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Money With Math Has Been Too Easy For Too Long [View article]
    Just be careful on the other side. Trending is not your friend. If we get a significant decline in small caps, your TZA could lose well over 100% of your investment.
    Jul 19 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Money With Math Has Been Too Easy For Too Long [View article]
    Sorry, but you don't know what you are talking about. I am short leveraged etfs. They are hard to short now, but not necessarily impossible. The problem with a universal negative is it only takes one counter example to debunk your argument. Perhaps you should refine your statement to "This strategy is very difficult to implement due to the difficulty in borrowing leveraged etfs for shorting."

    As far as asking people who post articles you perceive as being purely theoretical to stay off of Seeking Alpha, another solution you might consider is to simply not read their articles.
    Jul 19 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Money With Math Has Been Too Easy For Too Long [View article]
    Thanks for the article. It looks like this proves that in a rapidly rising market a leveraged long portfolio or long equity-short fixed income will outperform the S&P. Uh, yeah. "Arbitrage" is a misnomer for your strategies. It sounds nice, but arbitrage mean riskless. You have pairs that might somewhat offset each other, but by no means are they anywhere near perfect hedges.
    Jul 17 03:59 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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291 Comments
282 Likes