Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Investing In A 'Patent Troll' That Analysts Believe Will Double  [View article]
    Sounds like ACTG just also settled wtih LG, for a really massive amount of money like 25 million. See:
    Apr 12, 2013. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Atlantic Power  [View article]
    Remember that for all the stupid things AT has done (no point in the rehash) sizable projects like Canadian HIlls went online just at the end of December. The Biowaste facility in Georgia should now be online for the past week or two.

    Seems to me like the divy is probably now stable, at least for the forseeable future. Just today one director agreed with me

    FILER: DUNCAN R FOSTER TITLE: Director DATE TRANSACTION SHARES PRICE VALUE 4/1/13 Purchase 5,000 $4.72 $23,600

    Insiders are not buying in front of another bad quarter or dividend change IMHO.
    Apr 2, 2013. 02:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Atlantic Power  [View article]
    The insiders disagree with you. They have recently started buying the stock in the open market at these levels.

    Seems like a rather washed out stock to avoid at this point to me...
    Apr 2, 2013. 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swayed By The Arguments In Tesla?  [View article]
    I have been watching TSLA for a long or a short. I can't really get into it. I can't really picture a car company whose products are this expensive even after massive government subsides being highly profitable in the long term (lord knows most car companies are not high PE) and yet the technology is interesting enough that its niche could grow for a few years here.

    Sometimes the best thing you can do is just stand aside IMHO. I still think electric cars are just impractical for too many purposes given long recharging times and difficult issues with climate in large swathes of the country. But the hype machine here has just enough reality to it to make it dangerous.
    Mar 26, 2013. 06:48 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Longwei Petroleum: The Most Brazen China-Based U.S. Listed RTO To Date  [View article]

    Longwei is suing Geo and several other parties according to this document. I make no warranty regarding this item, but its very interesting to find it. Their website is still up and being updated as well. There is many pages of answers to the charges in the GEO article in this document, FWIW.
    Mar 23, 2013. 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay A Long Way Away From Longwei Petroleum  [View article]

    Longwei apparently is now Suing Geo and several other parties. In this lawsuit seems to be a lot of different answers to the charges.

    I make no representation regarding this data, but its interesting that they are fighting which cannot be free or on credit with American lawyers at this point, and put this all together...
    Mar 23, 2013. 08:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Model S Owners Could Realize Amazing Savings  [View article]
    A rather positive set of assumptions....

    A) I think anybody buying a 75k car is not worrying about gasoline costs one way or the other. A person could just as easily buy a very nice BMW like a 335XI or somesuch and the cost comparison disappears.

    b) wheres the cost of the electricity, is that free?

    c) the United States is bankrupt as are almost all of its states. Are you not concerned that some of the tax credits may disappear? They feature heavily in your calculations.

    I have no position in TSLA either way I am watching it right now.
    Mar 22, 2013. 03:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mitek Systems Holds Promising Future  [View article]
    Personally I think the analysts are way behind on this. While the company's take off has been slower than desired, the number of checks starting to be processed, even at .05 per check + their maintenance contracts, is enough to start making big money. I think its really improbable that this company doesn't exit this year with real, GAAP earnings of some substance and then next year significant GAAP (50 cents or more)

    People forget that all last year as companies launched the check deposit, they were launching, but they launched slowly. SEveral of the mega banks only launched in a few states for months to test it, etc. Think of bank of America. It adopted last year. Took until August to get rolled out at all. Now it widely available to all mobile users. They said about a month ago in a WSJ article that they are having 100,000 check deposits a day. So BOA went from zero to 100,000 per day in about six months. I would think they will be past 200,000 soon given what they save the banks on processing. Even these numbers represent small numbers compared to the total check processing at BOA...

    This year its pretty much a wide, active all user platform which should drive significantly more checks through the system.

    Now add a second stream starting with the Billpay...
    Mar 20, 2013. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List A Compelling Short Opportunity  [View article]
    I hope everyone has noticed that right after the Piper upgrade to 25$ the insiders are apparently very happy to immediately start selling thier shares in the 19.xx$ range.

    Very interesting to me.
    Mar 12, 2013. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ServiceNow Earnings Review - Is There Trouble Ahead?  [View article]
    More importantly, its being given credit for YEARS of success that haven't even come close to occurring.

    The market continues to become even stranger....
    Mar 11, 2013. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2013 Financial Results 
    Here's a fun exercise.

    Take their quarterly revenue from last quarter.

    Assume that the will grow their revenues at 10% per QUARTER sequentially, compounded into the future. This would mean that they would cleanly beat next quarters guidance mind you so I think I am being quite generous.

    Compounding in that manner, would mean that WDAY would have quarterly revenues of 255 million dollars by guess when......

    12 quarters from now, or December 31st 2016.

    WDAY is currently priced OVER 10x sales, for that number 3 YEARS IN THE FUTURE.

    lets ignore increasing competition, lack of profits, the fact that the company is increasing its share count dramatically over that time, and seems to be on a hiring binge which in the SaaS community must mean enormous options are being granted to all these new people each quarter, etc.

    That's just the most stunning thing I have seen in a looooonnnnggg while.
    Mar 9, 2013. 05:30 PM | Likes Like
  • Why Angie's List Will Never Be Profitable  [View article]
    I think the company is lining up for a secondary to fund itself. How the hell else can the remain a going concern for the next 2 years?

    Care to guess what company is probably after last nights news going to be running that offering?
    Mar 7, 2013. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FBI Firearm Background Checks To Top 2M In February  [View article]
    At this point, no matter what I personally think of firearms (I am a gun owner, and target shoot as a hobby) as an INVESTMENT I think this article helps highlight just how unsustainable this firearm sales trend really is.

    People are stockpiling ammo and weapons to the rafters. This is both a) expensive and b) "artificial" demand created by this horror in CT. I feel increasingly that almost all the risks to these stocks is now to the down side (legislation, market exhaustion, etc).

    The range I went to in NJ last weekend has an attached gunstore. It had some pistols, no real rifles left and zero ammo available even at crazy prices (33$ a box for whitebox .40 cal, 50 round box)

    At some point soon, people will have received all their orders, magazines, and ammo and sales are going to cool substantially.

    Does anyone really think that the US civilian market can sustain a sales rate of something like 25 million guns a year? For a decade or more like the stock's current PE's are saying?
    Mar 4, 2013. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mitek Systems Holds Promising Future  [View article]
    Agreed. As is pointed out in this article

    Bank of America alone is up to 100,000 mobile checks per day (their numbers not the companies) given that there are still many BOA customers who don't use it, its not hard to see a point within this calendar year where that number is 200,000 per day, which would be enough to support around 4 million in revenue to MITK using just a nickel royalty per check (the smallest they use according to management comments I have heard on CC)

    That's just one big bank in the US, and essentially all of the major banks now use them.....

    What's even more amazing is that the above scenario repeated at just 10 big banks would only count for around 5% of US checks, even now using conservative numbers I have seen on the net.

    not too shabby.

    Now lets add in the other several hundred smaller banks and billpay...
    Mar 1, 2013. 02:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Angie's List Will Never Be Profitable  [View article]
    I believe his point is that on an ongoing basis ANGI cannot get itself out of the marketing/sales costs hole that its currently in.

    The company may have achieved one quarter of GAAP profitability. But just using their own estimation of next quarter's marketing expense, they will be back to losing money, cash money again.

    Plus their cash burn is starting to really be worrisome I should think.

    Feb 20, 2013. 09:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment