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jw1564

jw1564
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  • Some major macroeconomic signs point to a "probable" stock market crash, Keith McCullough writes, but it's important to keep an eye on how October surprises play out around the globe. Historically, it's the month for it (I, II, III).  [View news story]
    yeah its called the "october effect" - there is suppose to be a sell-off during "octobers"...most data from historical "octobers" go against the idea

    so that part is bullshit...but I do agree with the fundamentals and equities being overvalued especially since there is a mass exodus of funds out of US equities
    Oct 4 06:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Women can save Wall Street, Paul Farrell says, slamming the "little boys inhabiting the brains of Blankfein, Paulson, Summers, Bernanke, Geithner and all the other so-called leaders whose secret, collective death-wish is taking America down with their childish games... Too much testosterone is killing our world."  [View news story]
    totally agree, estrogen is what makes women emotional and that is def not good for the economy EITHER..

    like what was said before: the problem is greed so keep in mind that WOMEN can be greedy too...the article starts by talking about "alpha males"...so if wall street was ran by women and women only, who do you think is going to run it? Mother Teresa?....alpha females, obviously, who will probably be just as greedy.
    Jul 27 10:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things Are Looking Downright Bullish: Latest Trend Analysis [View article]
    "But for how long?" - Probably until the S&P tests the next level or resistance at around 1200 is my guess
    Jul 26 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once the bank stress test hype ("enough to make people forget for a few hours that the world is bankrupt, but not enough for them to throw their life savings into the market with giddy fervor") abates, EU regulators might want to explain why Libor has been steadily climbing since April, and now stands at its highest point in a year.  [View news story]
    I think you make an excellent point, but why I think a rising LIBOR right now spells more negative signals than positive ones.

    Consider this:

    LIBOR is the interbank lending rate for unsecured loans.

    - The global equities market from April to now has been anything but good since April.
    - Thus, the rising LIBOR is more likely linked to the possibility that banks are hesitant of giving out bad loans to other banks rather than the possibility that economy has been improving and there is a surge of inter-bank lending.

    - The banks are not really lending to customers (businesses and people).
    - Thus, there should not be that much demand for interbank loans.
    - Therefore, I feel like the rising LIBOR is less likely to be because of improving global economic conditions/more demanding and more likely due to a scarier interbanking lending environment.
    Jul 23 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once the bank stress test hype ("enough to make people forget for a few hours that the world is bankrupt, but not enough for them to throw their life savings into the market with giddy fervor") abates, EU regulators might want to explain why Libor has been steadily climbing since April, and now stands at its highest point in a year.  [View news story]
    The world is going to shits, the faster people stop lying to themselves and start taking collective action the better off we will be.

    I vaguely hear good things out of Europe and Asia from stuff such as fiscal tightening, while I get the feeling that the US is still stuck on implementing more and more stimulus, but who knows?

    If Europe feels like a bullshit test that helps confidence is a good thing - fine, as long as they know the limitations of their weak test and are on the right track.

    The US on the other hand is still heading in the wrong direction, whether unknowningly or with people like Timothy Geithner lying to himself and the public saying the recovery is still going strong.

    Right now I am all ears and would love it if everybody else lets me know what they think, whether agreeing or disagreeing
    Jul 23 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geithner says the administration plans to allow tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans to expire, despite calls from a growing number of Democrats to delay any tax increases, and to extend estate taxes at 2009 rates. He also says Elizabeth Warren would be an "enormously effective leader" if chosen to run the new consumer finance agency.  [View news story]
    I swear to God, it is ABSOLUTELY ridiculous how many people in this country just MIGHT be able to do a better job than Geithner....
    Jul 22 04:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geithner says the administration plans to allow tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans to expire, despite calls from a growing number of Democrats to delay any tax increases, and to extend estate taxes at 2009 rates. He also says Elizabeth Warren would be an "enormously effective leader" if chosen to run the new consumer finance agency.  [View news story]
    Taxing to curb consumption might be the worst thing to do right now
    Jul 22 03:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • as innovative as google is, it still has yet to find a consistent/highly profitable way of making money...

    hope everybody's been riding the downward trend from $590ish in mid april to $430ish at one point a couple of weeks ago.
    Jul 20 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The markets are punishing BP (BP) "unduly and irrationally," writes Barron's, noting "the stock is dramatically cheap relative to the company's energy assets and cash flow, even applying a severe haircut for many billions of cleanup and liability expenses related to the Gulf spill."  [View news story]
    BP has the option (and a good one) of declaring strategic bankruptcy. The best way to play their shares is to long it (which I am doing) and buying suicide puts as a hedge.

    I actually called BP's bottom on June 29th when the entire market, the entire energy sector, oil itself, and BP's competitors were ALL down but BP shares were up.

    I believe the power of the market through the constant tug-of-war between is more powerful than any fundamental or technical analysis. Ultimately, I feel like, it is those powers that moves the market, which is why I bought in.

    I feel like the BP bulls that pushed the shares from $27 a share to $37 a share in the face of bad BP news, will definitely maintain momentum in the face of good BP news. What we've seen the last few days is merely some bulls locking in profits which I've done myself and then being replaced by new bulls or buying in again themselves. Either way, I see the shares heading up to about $45-$50/share in a month or so before the market feels that BP is overvalued and the shares retreat to low $40s to high $30s.

    With that said, their option of strategic bankruptcy is a very realistic and favorable one. BP plc can just separate themselves from their US arm of their business (if the lawsuits, especially the one from civilians get out of hand). In this situation, they would escape obligations of the damages of their spill while their UK business stay intact.

    The combination of my belief of rising BP share prices yet the likely chance of BP's strategic bankruptcy has me longing shares and BP call options while hedging with cheap suicide BP puts.
    Jul 18 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's government took a major step forward in overhauling its debt-plagued economy by forcing through a pension bill that would cut the cost of its welfare state by reducing benefits and raising the retirement age to 65. Thousands of public sector workers protested in front of the parliament building in Athens.  [View news story]
    Obviously it is painfully necessary for the Greek government to make such a decision.

    I personally find it extremely ironic how these decisions, of utmost importance to our future as well as the future of our children (raising taxes, taking away government programs, slashing benefits from doomed pension funds), are also the ones that face the most opposition from the decisions' beneficiaries.

    Mankind's nature of self-preservation has yet again proved manifest. From the politicians vying for additional terms, to individuals who are simply trying to ensure a meal for their families, many people are simply thinking for themselves and of the present rather than society as a whole and of the future. Those who are looking ahead see many necessary maneuvers in government that are difficult if not impossible due to the aforementioned opposition.

    Now, I am not saying that I would be willing to throw away my benefits if I was a public employee for the greater good. In addition, I doubt whether I am able to make such a tough decision in a position of power. However, for many developed economies in the world, there is an urgent need for someone who can make that tough choice for the greater good, and a need for the rest of us to allow that person to do it.

    The Chinese government is a soon-to-be exemplar economy in the world. Their government is much less influenced by the greater public and that has helped the government make decisions such as slowing down the country's growth which has led to some suffering in the short term but hopefully a better future for China.

    I'm just hoping the average American (and also the average investment banker who is against Obama's financial reform) thinks a little bit more about the future, the future country that they will live in, and the future country that will foster their children.

    - My rant for the day
    Jul 8 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • David Rosenberg says today's stock rally is merely a "temporary and technical snapback," citing 15 signs the economy is rolling over.  [View news story]
    the russell is down 1.3% while the S&P will probably end in the day in the red...what rally? pardon?
    Jul 6 02:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Double Dip Is Figment of the Crowd's Imagination [View article]
    what about housing? Home sales and foreclosures still seem to indicate that the economy has yet to recover significantly. Could it be these job and manufacturing numbers are just a result of government aid; just like the home sale numbers dropped after the government curbed incentives, these numbers are prime for a pull back as well? I think THAT's the fear that most people are feeling, NOT the fact that the decline in the ISM manufacturing index or the job numbers is particularly great.'

    The U.S. enjoyed a rise in bond sales due to the European crisis due to a flight to quality. However, that demand is going to be gone sooner or later. With a normalized demand, a huge deficit, pending municipal bankruptcies, I feel like the fears of a double dip recession is warranted even if it ultimately fails to materialize.
    Jul 4 01:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This economic recovery will be "substantially different this time," Pimco's Bill Gross tells CNBC. "Instead of levering we're delevering, and instead of deregulating we're regulating. Both of those conditions in combination produce a very weak economy, very slow growth and ultimately have effects on asset markets that depend on asset appreciation."  [View news story]
    where do you see what him and his boys are doing
    Feb 5 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This economic recovery will be "substantially different this time," Pimco's Bill Gross tells CNBC. "Instead of levering we're delevering, and instead of deregulating we're regulating. Both of those conditions in combination produce a very weak economy, very slow growth and ultimately have effects on asset markets that depend on asset appreciation."  [View news story]
    where do you see what him and his boys are doing?
    Feb 5 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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