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The_Batman

The_Batman
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  • $60: Not A Reasonable Price For Oil [View article]
    Agreed. This is the same argument made by the gold bugs: cost of production, blah blah blah, reduced output, blah blah blah, increased prices. Nothing new, this is the traditional view. I'll take the wait and see approach and invest in other sectors for the time being.
    Dec 18, 2014. 02:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Forget Oil, Is It All About Russia Now? [View article]
    Very good article. Yellen is not concerned about Russia and that's good enough for me. I'm long this market and will continue to stay put.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Upside Than Downside In Oil [View article]
    Higher interest rates decrease inflation in general and certainly for oil exporting nations. But I digress.

    This article is a joke. Go back to their article on June 3rd when they called for more oil upside. I believe they saw downside of only $3-$5. Must have forgot the zero. Keep towing the census line you'll be right eventually.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Halliburton Stock Is A Good Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Great article. Thank you for writing. I can't buy any oil or energy services equity right now. Yes, they are inexpensive but way too much uncertainty with oil prices. Would wait until oil settles and then make a buy. Oil at $65 would eliminate much of the marginal exploration in the US and I assume elsewhere casting doubt on those earning growth forecasts.
    Nov 22, 2014. 02:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell-Off Coming - Prepare Accordingly [View article]
    Good article, I commend you for the time, energy and thought. Couple of things. We tend to give too much emphasis to recent events, in this case the specter of the Great Recession. Your chart showing margins to GDP doesn't support the assertion that inflation hurts margins, look at the late 70's when both are rising. Margins and Roic are rising because of deferred investment, lower interest expense and technological changes.

    The discount rate, WACC, is tied to the 10 year and lower than average but if the economy supported higher rates wouldn't we have higher growth/cash flows?

    Don't miss this rally.
    Nov 13, 2014. 01:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turkey delivers big rate hike to defend currency [View news story]
    I can. Inflation is about 7.5%; GDP growth is sub 3%; public debt is low at 35% of GDP and unemployment is 10%. So not your typical crisis scenario. But problem is the net private foreign debt is $200 billion (1/4 of GDP) and the current account deficit is 7%. Without dollars they can't service the debt and more immediately finance the trade deficit. The problem would correct thru a naturally devalued currency but that would drive up inflation (particularly energy) and hurt foreign debtors. Which would further erode the exchange rate and around we go.
    This might work. I think the fear is increasing unemployment and political instability but their good debt position probably gives them some wiggle room if need be. However, you really need to understand their economy if you plan on investing. Headline investing is silly.
    But the bottom line is they can't grow at these interest rates so they need to address the structural issues. Good luck I say. I'll keep my money else where.
    Jan 28, 2014. 10:29 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obamacare's got an age problem [View news story]
    Not sure if there is an economic incentive to pull out from the exchange. Individual policies both in and out of the exchange must provide essential health benefits. So a bare bones outside the exchange just isn't going to fly. Given there are no subsides outside the exchange and very limited underwriting the only game in town is the exchange. Unless of course you want to focus only on group plans which don't play in the exchange anyway.

    However, I agree with a previous comment that the young will wait until 3/31. Better plans equal more cost. But after this first year I really do think choice and a level playing field plus a larger base will reduce cost trend. But we have to be realistic.
    Jan 14, 2014. 10:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric Continues To Remake Itself [View article]
    Do you think they are going bankrupt? The author seems to advocate more debt with his talk of dividends and buy backs and complaints about falling ROE brought about by deleveraging.

    In any event, they are a bank with Ge Capital loaning about $400 million out to consumers and industrial clients.There will be an ipo this year to partially divest them of the consumer finance component.
    Jan 9, 2014. 01:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macy's to close stores, lay off 2.5K; up 5% AH [View news story]
    Well I would say we care more about growth in the company's return on invested capital than growth in revenue, especially for a well established retailer. Closing stores when you have too many drives up returns and as an investor I applaud the move. As a person, I regret the loss in presumably well paying middle class jobs. This action tells us nothing about growth prospects.
    Jan 8, 2014. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The U.S. Bankrupt? [View article]
    Roy,

    I appreciate your service to our country. However, I do not agree with you.

    Inflation is the rising of all prices, including wages, equities, nominal interest rates, gas and groceries. Yes it hurts idle cash balances but raises your income and home value. Do you want deflation? Why would you ever buy anything today if the price is cheaper tomorrow? All those fancy robots would be out of a job. And that is what everything is all about - maximizing production so we all have the highest standard of living.

    Why would I want an economy based on a yellow rock? That is a ludicrous as fiat money, right? Name a country that has survived on the gold standard?

    We do agree that there is a need for a more modern workforce with the skills to meet 21st century job requirements. So lets make sure we are spending on that please.
    Dec 21, 2013. 01:01 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The U.S. Bankrupt? [View article]
    Smcguia,

    Look at you, swiping the Unions because they raise the standard of living for millions. We may have many problems but fair wages in exchange for one's labor isn't one of them.
    Dec 21, 2013. 12:38 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Five: Which Would You Be Willing To Own If They Closed The Market For 20 Years? [View article]
    Any strategy premised on growing loses twice as fast as sales is rock solid.

    Keep digging that moat and disrupting the establishment. With $44m in revenue, up a whopping $6 million in two years they may have already stollen 1/10,000 of Exxon's sales.

    The future is bright, indeed.
    Dec 20, 2013. 02:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Good Reasons To Be Bullish On The U.S. Dollar In 2014 [View article]
    I think the €/$ rate is fairly valued. I haven't given much thought to it but the OECD PPP table yields something like €1.29/$. Hopefully, someone with more expertise here can opine. Now if you factor in inflation and inflation expectations which both run higher, maybe significantly higher for the dollar you are getting pretty close.

    There might have been an overshoot due to the rapidly rising euribor but we are talking 5%. I think the jury is still out on which way the rate will go over the next several months.
    Dec 20, 2013. 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Goldcorp Third Quarter Edition [View article]
    Here's the link showing the cash cost as reported by Barrick Gold in their SEC filing:

    http://bit.ly/1aULvVY

    Page 83 shows $584 per ounce.
    Nov 14, 2013. 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Goldcorp Third Quarter Edition [View article]
    Ok. Let's just look at the financials. Page 83 of Barricks annual report shows $584 as the "cash cost". That number supposedly excludes depreciation (exploration, development, etc), taxes and a few other things.

    For kickers, Barrick says they will restate the cash cost down to $560 because of stripping costs that need to be capitalized per some accounting pronouncement. Makes you wonder what else they are putting in cost of sales.

    Also, I don't know the source of the Business Insider grid discussed above. But what I do know is that grid shows a non-weighted cash cost of $802 and NOT 1,097. And it is the $802 that excludes those things you mention that I call depreciation. The grid literally breaks it out. So what's the difference between the BI article and the financials besides a year. 1st the BI grid doesn't tell us the weightings per mine and secondly we don't know what the BI includes in costs (e.g does it offset costs with streaming revs?).

    Bottom line: marginal cost is much lower than $1,000 per ounce. So I guess we shouldn't buy gold, right?
    Nov 14, 2013. 01:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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