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chris SA

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  • With Nokia In Its Pocket, Microsoft Should Trade North Of $40 In 2014 [View article]
    I think when the market calms down ppl will realize that MSFT actually got a really sweet deal that is at the beginning of a growth stage, and NOK is really the loser here.

    Because if we assume 10x P/E to NSN, and assumed Q2 net profit 134m Euro would persist, that means NSN is only worth US$7bn, plus $7.2bn cash from MS for Devices, then the total value is just $14.2Bn, which is exactly the market cap pre-announcement and well below current Mcap of $19.5Bn even if you add in HERE. This is of course back of the envelop calculation but you get the point.

    Just imagine that Microsoft paid more for Skype than NOK!!

    So as a NOK investor I am actually quite disappointed. Forced to take a good profit today but might put into MSFT some time soon
    Sep 3, 2013. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With Nokia In Its Pocket, Microsoft Should Trade North Of $40 In 2014 [View article]
    Nokia will sell its devices division and smartphone patents to MS, and what's left in NOK will be Nokia Siemens Networks

    I bought NOK initially because i believe WP growth is going to drive the stock to >$10 in 5 years. Just a few days ago Kantar Worldpanel reported WP is really gaining momentum with market share of 8%-11% across Europe and Latin America.

    I'm actually quite disappointed at the sale because it is premature and I must say Microsoft snagged Nokia at a very good price.
    Sep 3, 2013. 10:14 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Visible Misses And Hidden Hits [View article]
    if you don't care about product cycles and release timing then you shouldn't invest in any tech stocks

    Nokia released the 920 last year so of course the selling price would have dropped substantially by 2Q13. The releases in 1H13 are also mostly cheaper models ie. 720, 620 and 520, therefore the ASP drop should be no surprise.

    Then in May we have 928 and 925, which are actually not hitting overseas markets until late June or even July, and 1020 will also hit the market in July. So in Q3, there should be an appreciable jump in ASP.

    And your last sentence.. if sales volume increased, how could you possibly say less people are buying?
    Jul 19, 2013. 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Next Big Smartphone Announcement Could Spur U.S. Lumia Sales [View article]
    you probably haven't seen the pictures taken by Nokia's 41mp pureview 808... those may not be better than point and shoot but for most users it should be much much more than enough. No other phones to date can take better pictures.
    Jul 4, 2013. 01:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Most U.S. consumers remain either unfamiliar with or unenthusiastic about Nokia (NOK) and BlackBerry's (BBRY) latest hardware, according to an MKM survey of 1,500 people. While 51% of respondents owned a smartphone, only 6% plan to buy a BlackBerry in the next 12 months, and just 1% a Nokia phone. Moreover, in spite of the Z10 and Lumia 920/820 launches, 63% of respondents had no idea when BB10 would launch in the U.S., and 61% were unaware WP8 (MSFT) phones are available. BlackBerry is counting on a fresh marketing push to raise its U.S. profile. [View news story]
    According to Kantar's OS share report for the 3 months ending Feb 13, the market share of WP in the US is 4.1% and RIM is 0.7%

    And i think they survey 250,000 customers every quarter in the US alone.

    So do i buy the MKM's findings that only 1% ppl have heard of windows phone 8 crap?? Hell no
    Apr 10, 2013. 03:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
    did you install the app "transfer my data"? it should be preloaded on your 920 and all you need to do is run the app, turn on bluetooth on both your 920 and iphone, and all your contacts will be transferred
    Dec 17, 2012. 04:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Priced For No Growth [View article]
    comparing AAPL with AMZN is apple to oranges. One is an online retailer, the other builds and distributes computer hardware.

    If you wanted a valid comparison check out Samsung's stock, which is trading at 9x historic p/e

    No pun intended.
    Dec 17, 2012. 04:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Nokia Lumia Sellout - Most Likely A Marketing Strategy [View article]
    You and I are both average consumers. We are both aware of the difference between 3G and 4G.

    My gf who never cared about the settings on her iPhone 5 noticed 4G was much faster.

    The "average consumer" are smarter than you think, and you and I are not that much smarter than the "average consumer" ;)
    Dec 11, 2012. 03:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Lumia 920 Limited Supply - Resolved By January? [View article]
    if you think the ASP for Q4 will still be €160, then you are wrong

    All the WP in Q3 were WP7.5, and with WP8 around the corner, Nokia had to reduce prices in Q3 to move volume.

    In Q3, if you assume Symbian's cost per phone to be €120 based on the cost/symbian before Nokia had WP, it would mean WP cost about €200 per phone, meaning a negative gross margin for WP7 in Q3. This further supports Nokia dropped WP7 ASP in Q3 ahead of WP8 price to move volume.

    With no Symbian sales in Q4, assuming blended WP8 ASP could be around €280 to 300, cost / phone assumed at €220, Nokia's Devices & Services will need 6 to 7m units to breakeven at the Non-IFRS EBIT level.

    This is much less than your 15-20m
    Dec 11, 2012. 03:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia (NOK +5.5%) has shot higher in afternoon trading, apparently thanks to a Bloomberg report the company will soon announce a deal to sell a Lumia 920 variant to China Mobile (CHL) that will support the latter's TD-SCDMA 3G network. However, this is old news: China Mobile announced it would sell the phone, known as the Lumia 920T, back in October. The fact China Mobile still doesn't have an iPhone deal could give 920T sales a boost. [View news story]
    DVL, people buy NOK because it has almost hit absolute bottom in Q3. In Q3 they were selling their outdated WP7 at less than cost, and Symbian sales almost touched 0.

    Going forward, WP8 phones won't sell 50 million in Q4 but have the potential to pick up momentum and grow from a very low base at exponential rates, similar to the beginning of Android.

    In contrast, Apple's growth will not be growing at such rates. There may even be a risk of negative growth because of its stale innovation and competition from Android and now WP8, which could drive margins of Apple products lower in the future.

    People see the risk/reward is in favor of NOK.
    Dec 7, 2012. 05:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Margin Hike Sell-Off: Should You Care? [View article]
    Apple is being sold off because:
    1. People are taking profit before a higher cap gain tax kicks in.
    2. Competitors coming up with innovations on software / hardware (whether your fanaticism agree or not) are becoming a threat to Apple's products, which failed to innovate in the most recent product cycle. Innovation is critical in tech.
    3. Competitors pricing their products lower yet offering similar / better hardware. Apple's pricing power and margin in the future will have downside risk.
    4. Strained relationship with critical suppliers like Samsung.
    5. Long product cycle of iPhone meaning investors will have to wait a long time for the next catalyst (eg. iPhone launch event)
    6. Most institutions simply do not want to allocate too much of their capital in AAPL, because of their mandates on diversification.
    Dec 6, 2012. 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Margin Hike Sell-Off: Should You Care? [View article]
    Stop investing your own money when you can't even see competition out there in the real world
    Dec 6, 2012. 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Margin Hike Sell-Off: Should You Care? [View article]
    Don't know what you're kind of apple you're smoking but I hope you do realize that in the smartphone world, there are valid choices beyond Apple? And that not 100% of the Chinese smartphone users will be using an iPhone?

    So what if CM doesn't sign Apple... they still get to sell Androids made by Samsung, Lenovo, ZTE, Huawei, and countless domestic brands that Chinese people can actually afford and be happy with.

    Just yesterday we have Nokia sign up with CM as well.

    CM didn't sign with Apple because of the huge subsidy. If you actually did your research, Unicom was eager to grow its 3G user base by signing with Apple, but earnings went red because of the deep subsidies.
    Dec 6, 2012. 02:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial reports of sellouts for Nokia's (NOK) Windows Phone 8 Lumia hardware are "misleading," thinks Deutsche's Kai Korschelt, since they have much to do with supply issues. "Anecdotal evidence suggests that many stores have only received 5-20 devices/store with wider carrier distribution delayed in some countries," Korschelt writes, while speculating 28nm chip shortages are to blame. He also claims U.K. retail survey and Google search interest data for the Lumia line is underwhelming. (Raymond James[View news story]
    Not sure if I trust this Deutsche "analyst"

    Or Ballmer "WP8 is selling 4x more than WP7.5 last year"

    Wait I think Ballmer wouldn't lie to investors with a straight face..
    Nov 30, 2012. 01:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Nokia Will Go Higher [View article]
    while it makes sense on paper to say that consumers in BRIC markets are price sensitive, reality is, consumers in many large Chinese cities are crazy about apple products, i think even more so than the US.

    If you ever took a flight between two Chinese cities, you will know what I am talking about.
    Nov 27, 2012. 02:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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