Most U.S. consumers remain either unfamiliar with or unenthusiastic about Nokia (NOK) and BlackBerry's (BBRY) latest hardware, according to an MKM survey of 1,500 people. While 51% of respondents owned a smartphone, only 6% plan to buy a BlackBerry in the next 12 months, and just 1% a Nokia phone. Moreover, in spite of the Z10 and Lumia 920/820 launches, 63% of respondents had no idea when BB10 would launch in the U.S., and 61% were unaware WP8 (MSFT) phones are available. BlackBerry is counting on a fresh marketing push to raise its U.S. profile. [View news story]
According to Kantar's OS share report for the 3 months ending Feb 13, the market share of WP in the US is 4.1% and RIM is 0.7%
And i think they survey 250,000 customers every quarter in the US alone.
So do i buy the MKM's findings that only 1% ppl have heard of windows phone 8 crap?? Hell no
Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
did you install the app "transfer my data"? it should be preloaded on your 920 and all you need to do is run the app, turn on bluetooth on both your 920 and iphone, and all your contacts will be transferred
Nokia Lumia 920 Limited Supply - Resolved By January? [View article]
if you think the ASP for Q4 will still be €160, then you are wrong
All the WP in Q3 were WP7.5, and with WP8 around the corner, Nokia had to reduce prices in Q3 to move volume.
In Q3, if you assume Symbian's cost per phone to be €120 based on the cost/symbian before Nokia had WP, it would mean WP cost about €200 per phone, meaning a negative gross margin for WP7 in Q3. This further supports Nokia dropped WP7 ASP in Q3 ahead of WP8 price to move volume.
With no Symbian sales in Q4, assuming blended WP8 ASP could be around €280 to 300, cost / phone assumed at €220, Nokia's Devices & Services will need 6 to 7m units to breakeven at the Non-IFRS EBIT level.
Nokia (NOK +5.5%) has shot higher in afternoon trading, apparently thanks to a Bloomberg report the company will soon announce a deal to sell a Lumia 920 variant to China Mobile (CHL) that will support the latter's TD-SCDMA 3G network. However, this is old news: China Mobile announced it would sell the phone, known as the Lumia 920T, back in October. The fact China Mobile still doesn't have an iPhone deal could give 920T sales a boost. [View news story]
DVL, people buy NOK because it has almost hit absolute bottom in Q3. In Q3 they were selling their outdated WP7 at less than cost, and Symbian sales almost touched 0.
Going forward, WP8 phones won't sell 50 million in Q4 but have the potential to pick up momentum and grow from a very low base at exponential rates, similar to the beginning of Android.
In contrast, Apple's growth will not be growing at such rates. There may even be a risk of negative growth because of its stale innovation and competition from Android and now WP8, which could drive margins of Apple products lower in the future.
Apple's Margin Hike Sell-Off: Should You Care? [View article]
Apple is being sold off because: 1. People are taking profit before a higher cap gain tax kicks in. 2. Competitors coming up with innovations on software / hardware (whether your fanaticism agree or not) are becoming a threat to Apple's products, which failed to innovate in the most recent product cycle. Innovation is critical in tech. 3. Competitors pricing their products lower yet offering similar / better hardware. Apple's pricing power and margin in the future will have downside risk. 4. Strained relationship with critical suppliers like Samsung. 5. Long product cycle of iPhone meaning investors will have to wait a long time for the next catalyst (eg. iPhone launch event) 6. Most institutions simply do not want to allocate too much of their capital in AAPL, because of their mandates on diversification.
Apple's Margin Hike Sell-Off: Should You Care? [View article]
Don't know what you're kind of apple you're smoking but I hope you do realize that in the smartphone world, there are valid choices beyond Apple? And that not 100% of the Chinese smartphone users will be using an iPhone?
So what if CM doesn't sign Apple... they still get to sell Androids made by Samsung, Lenovo, ZTE, Huawei, and countless domestic brands that Chinese people can actually afford and be happy with.
Just yesterday we have Nokia sign up with CM as well.
CM didn't sign with Apple because of the huge subsidy. If you actually did your research, Unicom was eager to grow its 3G user base by signing with Apple, but earnings went red because of the deep subsidies.
Initial reports of sellouts for Nokia's (NOK) Windows Phone 8 Lumia hardware are "misleading," thinks Deutsche's Kai Korschelt, since they have much to do with supply issues. "Anecdotal evidence suggests that many stores have only received 5-20 devices/store with wider carrier distribution delayed in some countries," Korschelt writes, while speculating 28nm chip shortages are to blame. He also claims U.K. retail survey and Google search interest data for the Lumia line is underwhelming. (Raymond James) [View news story]
Not sure if I trust this Deutsche "analyst"
Or Ballmer "WP8 is selling 4x more than WP7.5 last year"
Wait I think Ballmer wouldn't lie to investors with a straight face..
while it makes sense on paper to say that consumers in BRIC markets are price sensitive, reality is, consumers in many large Chinese cities are crazy about apple products, i think even more so than the US.
If you ever took a flight between two Chinese cities, you will know what I am talking about.
Nokia And Research In Motion: Don't Step In Front Of These Freight Trains [View article]
Why do you think that every new phone that comes out will need to instantly beat Apple to even be considered viable?
When android first came out, volume was low but the momentum built up on every new android phone release. I see the same in Nokia phones currently, with L920 generation building momentum on top of the L900 generation.
Having built a stronger brand name with L920, The next couple releases will be much easier to market and if they can keep the quality and innovation, I believe we will be seeing a snowball effect.
Why Microsoft Could Be The Perfect Stock For Income Investors [View article]
my modest lenovo laptop sporting a i3 cpu in its 3rd year runs faster, snappier, crisper and more responsive after installing win8 from win7. The comment above saying ultrabooks on i7 being laggy: sorry, you're lying.
Games run faster and more stable than before. Imagine playing complex (compared to ipad) games like Civ 5 on Surface Pro. And then you have a photo app that automatically organizes all your photos from harddrive, facebook, flickr and smartphone all in one app, and a mail app which integrates all your email accounts into one app, and a messaging app that integrates all your MSN, facebook, etc. Its pretty amazing. Even the installation from win7 to win8 was hassle free and the only thing incompatible was lenovo's power management bloatware.
The OS is not hard to pick up at all, if you had a mild intelligence and have ever used a tablet before. Be prepared to learn a few shortcuts like closing apps with Alt+F4 and use Winkey+Q for the search bar, but that's about it. Don't let the media and bloggers fool you on this one.
The only thing is potential buyers need to be shown these features. I hesitated to buy win 8 myself, but was lucky enough to receive one as a birthday present. Windows 8 is like iOS with freedom in hardware & software customization. Once I got one I cannot imagine going back to Win7
Investors Don't Understand Apple's Math - A Mistake [View article]
What he is saying about component makers is totally correct. It happened yesterday when Samsung announced a 20% hike in component prices to Apple, and it has no choice but to suck it up.
When component costs go up what is Apple going to do? Pass on the cost to consumers? Will you still buy the iPhone 6 when it costs $899?
Apple products do command a huge loyal fanbase, bordering on cultism, but marginal consumers will switch to other cheaper alternatives that offers similar or better functionality, or simply not upgrade their iPhones to the next product cycle.
Realistically, Apple will have no room to increase their price. Their customer loyalty will allow them to price their products at a premium to competitors, but when component costs go up, their margins will go down, and that translates to a lower stock price.
Most U.S. consumers remain either unfamiliar with or unenthusiastic about Nokia (NOK) and BlackBerry's (BBRY) latest hardware, according to an MKM survey of 1,500 people. While 51% of respondents owned a smartphone, only 6% plan to buy a BlackBerry in the next 12 months, and just 1% a Nokia phone. Moreover, in spite of the Z10 and Lumia 920/820 launches, 63% of respondents had no idea when BB10 would launch in the U.S., and 61% were unaware WP8 (MSFT) phones are available. BlackBerry is counting on a fresh marketing push to raise its U.S. profile. [View news story]
And i think they survey 250,000 customers every quarter in the US alone.
So do i buy the MKM's findings that only 1% ppl have heard of windows phone 8 crap?? Hell no
Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
Apple Is Priced For No Growth [View article]
If you wanted a valid comparison check out Samsung's stock, which is trading at 9x historic p/e
No pun intended.
The Nokia Lumia Sellout - Most Likely A Marketing Strategy [View article]
My gf who never cared about the settings on her iPhone 5 noticed 4G was much faster.
The "average consumer" are smarter than you think, and you and I are not that much smarter than the "average consumer" ;)
Nokia Lumia 920 Limited Supply - Resolved By January? [View article]
All the WP in Q3 were WP7.5, and with WP8 around the corner, Nokia had to reduce prices in Q3 to move volume.
In Q3, if you assume Symbian's cost per phone to be €120 based on the cost/symbian before Nokia had WP, it would mean WP cost about €200 per phone, meaning a negative gross margin for WP7 in Q3. This further supports Nokia dropped WP7 ASP in Q3 ahead of WP8 price to move volume.
With no Symbian sales in Q4, assuming blended WP8 ASP could be around €280 to 300, cost / phone assumed at €220, Nokia's Devices & Services will need 6 to 7m units to breakeven at the Non-IFRS EBIT level.
This is much less than your 15-20m
Nokia (NOK +5.5%) has shot higher in afternoon trading, apparently thanks to a Bloomberg report the company will soon announce a deal to sell a Lumia 920 variant to China Mobile (CHL) that will support the latter's TD-SCDMA 3G network. However, this is old news: China Mobile announced it would sell the phone, known as the Lumia 920T, back in October. The fact China Mobile still doesn't have an iPhone deal could give 920T sales a boost. [View news story]
Going forward, WP8 phones won't sell 50 million in Q4 but have the potential to pick up momentum and grow from a very low base at exponential rates, similar to the beginning of Android.
In contrast, Apple's growth will not be growing at such rates. There may even be a risk of negative growth because of its stale innovation and competition from Android and now WP8, which could drive margins of Apple products lower in the future.
People see the risk/reward is in favor of NOK.
Apple's Margin Hike Sell-Off: Should You Care? [View article]
1. People are taking profit before a higher cap gain tax kicks in.
2. Competitors coming up with innovations on software / hardware (whether your fanaticism agree or not) are becoming a threat to Apple's products, which failed to innovate in the most recent product cycle. Innovation is critical in tech.
3. Competitors pricing their products lower yet offering similar / better hardware. Apple's pricing power and margin in the future will have downside risk.
4. Strained relationship with critical suppliers like Samsung.
5. Long product cycle of iPhone meaning investors will have to wait a long time for the next catalyst (eg. iPhone launch event)
6. Most institutions simply do not want to allocate too much of their capital in AAPL, because of their mandates on diversification.
Apple's Margin Hike Sell-Off: Should You Care? [View article]
Apple's Margin Hike Sell-Off: Should You Care? [View article]
So what if CM doesn't sign Apple... they still get to sell Androids made by Samsung, Lenovo, ZTE, Huawei, and countless domestic brands that Chinese people can actually afford and be happy with.
Just yesterday we have Nokia sign up with CM as well.
CM didn't sign with Apple because of the huge subsidy. If you actually did your research, Unicom was eager to grow its 3G user base by signing with Apple, but earnings went red because of the deep subsidies.
Initial reports of sellouts for Nokia's (NOK) Windows Phone 8 Lumia hardware are "misleading," thinks Deutsche's Kai Korschelt, since they have much to do with supply issues. "Anecdotal evidence suggests that many stores have only received 5-20 devices/store with wider carrier distribution delayed in some countries," Korschelt writes, while speculating 28nm chip shortages are to blame. He also claims U.K. retail survey and Google search interest data for the Lumia line is underwhelming. (Raymond James) [View news story]
Or Ballmer "WP8 is selling 4x more than WP7.5 last year"
Wait I think Ballmer wouldn't lie to investors with a straight face..
Why Nokia Will Go Higher [View article]
If you ever took a flight between two Chinese cities, you will know what I am talking about.
Nokia And Research In Motion: Don't Step In Front Of These Freight Trains [View article]
The ASP is $449 US / 550 Euro. Say 1.2 sold in US, 3.8 sold in rest of world.
Using Nokia's Hong Kong pricing HK$5600 vs local carrier plan pricing of HK$4480, carrier sub is about 110 Euro
The revenue would then be 1950 Eur
Get your facts straight. L920 is not some cheap 4th-tier plastic phone selling for $150
Nokia And Research In Motion: Don't Step In Front Of These Freight Trains [View article]
When android first came out, volume was low but the momentum built up on every new android phone release. I see the same in Nokia phones currently, with L920 generation building momentum on top of the L900 generation.
Having built a stronger brand name with L920, The next couple releases will be much easier to market and if they can keep the quality and innovation, I believe we will be seeing a snowball effect.
Why Microsoft Could Be The Perfect Stock For Income Investors [View article]
Games run faster and more stable than before. Imagine playing complex (compared to ipad) games like Civ 5 on Surface Pro. And then you have a photo app that automatically organizes all your photos from harddrive, facebook, flickr and smartphone all in one app, and a mail app which integrates all your email accounts into one app, and a messaging app that integrates all your MSN, facebook, etc. Its pretty amazing. Even the installation from win7 to win8 was hassle free and the only thing incompatible was lenovo's power management bloatware.
The OS is not hard to pick up at all, if you had a mild intelligence and have ever used a tablet before. Be prepared to learn a few shortcuts like closing apps with Alt+F4 and use Winkey+Q for the search bar, but that's about it. Don't let the media and bloggers fool you on this one.
The only thing is potential buyers need to be shown these features. I hesitated to buy win 8 myself, but was lucky enough to receive one as a birthday present. Windows 8 is like iOS with freedom in hardware & software customization. Once I got one I cannot imagine going back to Win7
Investors Don't Understand Apple's Math - A Mistake [View article]
When component costs go up what is Apple going to do? Pass on the cost to consumers? Will you still buy the iPhone 6 when it costs $899?
Apple products do command a huge loyal fanbase, bordering on cultism, but marginal consumers will switch to other cheaper alternatives that offers similar or better functionality, or simply not upgrade their iPhones to the next product cycle.
Realistically, Apple will have no room to increase their price. Their customer loyalty will allow them to price their products at a premium to competitors, but when component costs go up, their margins will go down, and that translates to a lower stock price.