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  • The 'Great Rotation'? More Like The Great Lie [View article]
    Chart TLT with S&P500 and get back to me.
    Chart a high-yield fund or ETF with the S&P500 and get back to me.

    I guess this is why there is so much money to be made and lost in the bond market...

    Mar 3, 2013. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Great Rotation'? More Like The Great Lie [View article]
    @ Intact Cap
    What seems to be ubiquitous here at SA is the lumping of 'bonds'.

    A recent report from McKinsey list the 'total world' bond capitalization fully 3x that of likewise stocks.
    The USA is less than 1/2 of the total bond market, and Treasuries less than 1/2 of that (raise that to 3/4 if you count MBS Pass-throughs).

    I'm not sure why I find myself defensive; your comment is long opinion, short of substance. I have very low exposure to US Treasuries, and would in no way defend them as a current investment. But your confidence (in guaranteed downside) suggests I should 'short', and I think that a fools game.

    (do you have positions in TBT or TMV?)

    Best of luck...

    Mar 3, 2013. 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Credit Suisse And Goldman Sachs's Bear Thesis On Gold [View article]
    Agree; a solid article with excellent arguments.

    My problem: some very big (and oft referred to as very smart) money have come out of GLD of late.

    I would rather feel foolish in fiat down the road.
    I realize it may be an un-wise decision.
    Best of luck to all, agree or dis-agree.


    Mar 3, 2013. 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wishful Thinking [View article]
    ...almost seems like you think I was being critical. Not the case; not at all. I agree completely with the sentiment I quoted from you.

    My comment was all meant to be complimentary.

    Feb 26, 2013. 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Gasoline Update: Prices Rise Again, But At A Slower Pace [View article]
    Good article. Chart 2 and your question are answered by the question, "How long can the refiners nail this huge crack spread without bringing POTUS and the Congress on their backs?"

    Sure wish I'd of bought them instead of sitting here researching UGA for my ever expanding commuter fuel costs...


    Feb 26, 2013. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sick Of High Gas Prices? Hedging Strategies For Your Everyday Costs [View article]
    Well, I liked the part about short T's and the sofa and all; I laughed.

    I go about $6k at this $4 gallon; almost all commute. I found your article researching UGA. I like what you're thinking, but that's all a bit much for me...

    I'm thinking BUY about 1 years ($6k) worth of UGA when I'm comfortable with the retail (~$3 per gal); SELL when it's up here (and either wait for it again, or play something on the way down...)


    Feb 26, 2013. 07:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rising Risk Of Investing In Bond Funds And ETFs [View article]
    Thanks for a very good article, Mr. Pyke.

    I share your conservatism, but am getting around things in a little different fashion.

    Bonds are so diverse and perhaps risks are not well understood by many. I find it interesting how they are 'lumped' as an asset class, when that is the furthest from the truth.

    As to a buble or not, I think we are in a 'safe yield bubble'; and investors may or may not know from what directions the dangers will come. That might be a topic for an article from someone such as yourself (?)

    Before closing, I have sold VIPSX. An excellent fund, I agree; but I think the better part of historical returns came with the overall bond bull market, and my fears were that negative pricing would erase diminishing dividends. Adding to that implied marginal return, by the time the reported CPI reflects inflation and TIPS government price bumps kick in, you'll just be making up lost ground. I hope for current holders of the fund I am wrong...

    Feb 24, 2013. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rising Risk Of Investing In Bond Funds And ETFs [View article]
    Hang in there, Firehawk 734!
    Government control of short-end with ZIRP; long-end with QE purchases. Bill Gross et al, as mentioned by 'pdtor', above, is very concerned about ALL the markets, and has recently been mentioning gold (GLD) as an asset of choice!

    I'm using PCARX, Pimco, actively managed by Kiesel, all debt (long & short) and PAUIX, similar, but in an all asset style (Dr. Bob, high ER; but steady NET return). My spouse and I are much nearer your co-workers age that to yours; I wonder if he realizes these types of investments are available?

    We fill in our accounts with PTTRX, PMZIX and PIMIX, and am adding to the 'G' fund in my TSP (Fed 401k) plan. I can't wait to roll this over to Vanguard at retirement...

    Best of luck

    Feb 24, 2013. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Drop To $26? [View article]
    Excellent idea.
    Trading is all tax-deferred accounts; the safe is obviously not.

    Do you go long and short, coindog?

    Do you use just the ETF's, or play the miners as well?

    Thanks in advance.

    Feb 24, 2013. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wishful Thinking [View article]
    Closing article sentiments:
    "I would rather be out of the market and miss a continued upside move than go along for the ride downward and have to work especially hard to get back up.

    I've done that before, and I don't feel like having to do it again."

    Thanks, George Acs!
    Loved the closing thoughts; LOVE the avatar!
    Only other comments are that your game is WAY ahead of mine; so I'm happy that you're making money and seem to be enjoying what you do...


    Feb 24, 2013. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Dividend Increasing At Double Digits, Harley-Davidson May Be A Best Dividend Growth Stock [View article]
    HOG, which I owned ~2003 (one of my first 5 stock picks) has not (really) gone anywhere since I sold.

    Yes, the bikes are iconic; Yes, international growth is a reason to own for the longer-term; Yes, I 'cut my teeth' on Asian bikes, and enjoyed the 'sport' from the performance side that these big American V-Twins are not designed for, nor have the potential of.

    That having been said, I thought it was a good article, well presented as an investment op, with the closing point (of waiting for a dip) valid. For me, however, many ideas will also be on sale at a similar time, and HOGs dropping below my old SELL price will simply illicit another grin of self-satisfaction...

    Feb 24, 2013. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Essence Of Valuation Is Soundness, Not Rate Of Return [View article]
    I will save this article to read multiple times for a more complete understanding.
    This is why I come to SA.

    Thank you, Mr. Carnevale, not only for what seems to be recognized as an extremely well written article on a tenet of investing, but for making me think...


    Feb 24, 2013. 11:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton And The Future Of Energy [View article]
    Liked the article; excellent analysis; like HAL long-term.

    I will wait. This is a well run company that will be around for a very long time. I think a much better entry point will come to those who wait.

    Feb 24, 2013. 10:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Drop To $26? [View article]
    ..But, we digress...

    SA is a great platform for 'ALL' types of investment analysis, indeed!

    I will begin filling my safe with silver coins at ~$25.00 per ounce...

    Feb 24, 2013. 10:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The S&P 500 Overbought? [View article]
    Mr. Roylance: A good, concise article on the inclinations of the Fed, and the effects on the economy and equities in general.

    For cautious 'boomers' like myself, market valuation on future earnings is implausible; but, by which, I would answer 'No' to the question posed in the title of your article. I agree with the premise that we are slowly improving economically in America.

    I look at the Shiller 10 year trailing, by which this market is definitely over-bought, and having some excellent choices outside of Treasuries to invest in for a 'very reasonable' return, plan to wait for a 'Buy' signal based on that metric.

    If that does nor occur, I'm fine with it.


    Feb 24, 2013. 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment