Seeking Alpha

Eighthman

Eighthman
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Eighthman's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The United States Dollar In 2015 [View article]
    Hello? What about exports and the trade deficit? The Re-shoring movement is already failing this year. The good manufacturing jobs don't seem to be coming back. Meanwhile, the ruble should trigger a firesale on weapons (up 20%) and other Russian goods.
    In a world where nations try to keep their currencies cheaper than the next guy, it's hard to see the good in a strong dollar.
    Dec 22, 2014. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Ruble Dies, Russia Sells Crown Jewels To Stem The Chaos [View article]
    Uh, No.

    Russia posted a 20% increase in arms sales last year and a cheap ruble will create a fire sale. Third world types will line up to buy, sanctions or not ( as with Iraq buying Russian fighter planes after an F-16 deal with the US fell apart). If they can't control Iraq arms purchases, who do you think they can control?

    EU banks are facing collapse if they push Russia into default and they know it. Too many of their assets are locked up there. Russia also has cards to play with regard to foreign companies within their borders.

    The US "re-shoring" manufacturing movement has failed ( the index went down this year). Various dolts think a strong dollar is wonderful but ignore the export problem it will create. By contrast, Russia will boom in a 'weaken thy currency' scenario.

    China is already hinting that they may help with currency swaps, til Russia recovers.

    The US is a bloated heavyweight who can't understand why his lean opponent takes punches but won't fall down.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Ruble Dies, Russia Sells Crown Jewels To Stem The Chaos [View article]
    If they can just hold it together for another year, Russia may do great - even relative to the US. The dollar will crush exports ( the re-shoring movement is already a failure this year) and the trade deficit will worsen. Meanwhile, the cheap ruble will cause an explosion of exports for Russia - including weapons which are increasing in part because they 'fit' with war in the 3rd world/Middle East. US arms are already pricing themselves out of world markets.

    Further, Russia's experience with the dollar and the western financial system will send a powerful message to other nations: get free of them both.
    Dec 17, 2014. 04:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Yield's Sake, Buy More Western Asset Global High Income Fund Shares [View article]
    Can anyone tell me if these guys carry 'insurance' on risky assets, such as CDS or derivatives? I emailed them but never got a reply.

    With Ukraine and Venezuela going bankrupt soon, this would be helpful.
    Dec 9, 2014. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This? [View article]
    How about a tax on imported oil sufficient to protect shale drilling from obvious Saudi manipulation? Why sit passively while they wreck an industry vital to US security?
    Dec 2, 2014. 04:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama Outperforms Reagan On Jobs, Growth And Investing [View article]
    Why the stupid comparasion between Bush and Obama? The Ruling Elite give us inept figureheads as Presidents from both parties. Next up is a woman who has never accomplished anything of note in any position she's held.

    Funny how the US public doesn't buy into Obama's performance - as if they aren't experiencing a recovery at all.....
    Sep 12, 2014. 04:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ukraine Crisis: A Decision That May Have Sealed The Fate Of The EU [View article]
    Thank you for this level headed analysis. The Russians aren't villians and the Ukrainian leaders aren't heroes. They are both deeply corrupt and the US should realize 'we don't have a dog in this fight' just like Syria.

    The Slate had an interesting analysis in which Crimea ends up as a burden and money pit for Russia. They need money, electricity, water and resources from the Ukraine and Russia will end up paying the bills.
    Mar 3, 2014. 04:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Vs. USA: And The Winner Is... [View article]
    Because the US has a compliant mass media ( as with ABC trimming Barbara Walters comments favoring Snowden) , we ignore the depth and subtle nature of US corruption.

    Such as: wasting trillions on unnecessary wars, refusing to prosecute TBTF Bankers, putting a higher % of citizens in prison and lying to the public as a matter of habit. And then there's the NSA....

    US colleges? Go to Cornell and take note that they are educating the youth of Asia while the US ranks LAST in math.

    Chinese leaders often have degrees ( such as in engineering) and many years of experience in practical governance while our Congress (6% approval) and Presidency are a national embarrassment.
    Dec 6, 2013. 05:15 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China And Japan Don't Want Our Bonds [View article]
    Thinking in this direction tends to move towards an official big change in the nature of the Fed - again, as an arm of the Treasury creating money without debt. Just printing it (electronically).

    The conspiracy types will hardly know what to say.
    Sep 9, 2013. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China And Japan Don't Want Our Bonds [View article]
    Is it possible that we will see a de facto return of "US Notes" as in the Kennedy Administration? (please don't shoot me).

    My point is that, if no one wants our debt, then the Fed simply "buys" it indefinitely and becomes (like it or not) an arm of the Treasury, with money issued debt free.
    Sep 5, 2013. 07:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron (CVX) strikes a deal with Argentine oil/gas producer YPF to develop shale oil/gas assets in Argentina's Vaca Muerta formation. The companies will invest $1.24B in the project's first phase, which will include drilling 100 wells. Chevron says the deal gives it a chance to grow production beyond its 2017 target of 3.3M barrels/day. [View news story]
    How does a publically traded company do something so breathtaking stupid and not be tarred and feathered by shareholders? Argentina is ruled by a kleptocracy. If you find anything of great value, it will be taken away.

    Or is this yet another example of corporate directors having huge salaries that insulate them from actually caring?
    Jul 16, 2013. 07:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan Isn't Bankrupt [View article]
    Has there ever been a more explicit example of a set, determined, fated future than Japan?

    Stop making babies. Die off as a nation. Goodbye.
    Apr 5, 2013. 08:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The USD Deserve Its Recent Surge Of Popularity? [View article]
    What is so difficult to understand about US markets and the US dollar? It's all about relativity: Europe is falling apart, Japan has a bleak future with no babies and money printing without end - and China isn't transparent.

    There are billions, perhaps trillions of dollars/euros/yen desperately searching for safe yield. As the global situation has gotten worse, the urgency has become greater. Money is becoming a sort of refugee, terrified by tyrants, thugs and politicians whose credibility declines by the week ("Your deposits are safe").

    The US economy is a prostitute with herpes. All the other hookers have AIDS. Take some precautions and maybe you'll be fine
    Mar 28, 2013. 06:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The bailout rejected, what's next for Cyprus? Open Europe suggests the EU will allow a few days for Cypriot MPs to get their minds right before the ECB thinks about cutting off funding for the country's banks (which would lead to their collapse). Or not. Reuters' Anatole Kaletsky notes the ECB needs two-thirds of its board to cut off ELA funding, and the Germans don't have the votes. "Time to get bullish ... German U-turn ahead!" [View news story]
    I fully agree with the dominant opinion here. Germany and the ECB will capitulate and Cyprus will get what it wants.

    There are other factors at work here involving the Russian Mafia. Even Gartman warns that people could get killed if they don't cooperate.
    This situation will create a degree of moral hazard unseen in all human economic history as Italy, Spain, Ireland and all can do as they wish because of Euro-Cowardice.

    With their banks capitalized 1 to 26, They Have No Choice but to print Euros with wild abandon. As Jim Cramer said, "we all know this will not end well". Indeed.
    Mar 19, 2013. 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis on. S&P 500 futures -1% and the euro -1.2% as Brussels "faced with a drowning member state, instead of throwing the Cypriot people a lifebuoy, (throws) a millstone around its neck." EU leaders risk triggering bank runs in Cyprus (and elsewhere?) by going after bank depositors to fund the country's bank bailout. [View news story]
    It was reported that Cypriot leaders explicitly denied that any deposit haircut would be allowed - shortly before they agreed to this.

    Why do Europeans even bother with voting? They have no say in their future, it's decided in Brussels or Germany.
    Mar 17, 2013. 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
218 Comments
438 Likes