bowater

Five Actionable Ideas for 2009

in re: Januarys effect.

If the selling continues in the first week in Jan of 2009 on a stock that should have bounced up, that company is in trouble.. be careful. it could take a long time to recover or could go belly up.

Taking Advantage of the January Effect

one final statement: the january effect has little to do with Obama, earnings, any announcements about the economic condition, rates ,.

it is based on taxes.

Taking Advantage of the January Effect

the fact that there is so much skepticism and worry about the January Effect, and theories about why or how it work is the very reason why my method works. My method is based on fact not theory.

Stocks go up and down based on buying and selling. other than trading on inside information, Dec and Jan trading is the most profitable.

the best trade is finding an IPO priced high in Jan of 2008 and now is Dec trading at 25% of the high.

It has a double tax loss because EVERYONE in the stock is short term.
It will bounce big in Jan 2009.

Taking Advantage of the January Effect

the method i use(explained above) is not based on any theory.

it is based on fact.

what causes stocks to go down or stay down.....selling(profi... taking or tax loss selling)

in my examples of the picks in December, there is no profit taking, only tax loss selling in these.
almost no one takes a tax loss in January. so the selling pressure is off the stock.
the profit takers in January are investors that shorted the stock at high prices in the early part of the year. they are buyers covering their shorts.
this buying moves the stock higher.

if they shorted a stock at $10.00 and it is now $2.00, they cover.

Covering at $2.00 or $3.00 is fine. YOU buy at $2.00 in Dec and sell at $3.00 in Jan.
I have seen stocks that were $8.00 that are now .55 cents. o.k. companies. these could go to $1.00 or more.

Taking Advantage of the January Effect

I agree with your general theory of the "january effect". ETF's are good.

More money can be made with individual stocks. More work, more profit.

I don't think any ETF will be up 100% by January 15th,2009

But some stocks in the ETF will.

you must find those stocks.

here is how I proceed:
1) find a company that will not go out of business in the next 2 years.
2) make sure that the stock of this company was shorted at high prices during 2008.
3) this stock must be able to double from the current price and not
reach 50% of the 2008 high to be a candidate.

if you find ones that meets this criteria, you will have winners.


these are your big winners. the reason is simple: no tax loss selling in
January (selling pressure lifted) the shorts will cover because no taxes til
April of 2010.

I have been doing this since 1972.

The January Effect: Small Caps Outperform After Really Bad Years

In Dec.2008, I will buy small or micro caps that have enough cash or cash flow to stay in business at least one year from now.

here's the way to make the $$$$$

example: if the high on the stock in 2008 was 20.00 and is now trading at 5.00, it is a buy.

here is the rule: if the stock doubles from today's price and could go to about 50% of the high on the year, it is a buy.

another example: high for 2008......3.00 now trading at .75 cents....buy it

Eyeing a Ferocious Snap Back in Small Caps

The "january effect" is going to be huge in 2009.

start buying micro caps now.

SWHC, TSTR, ALVR, ENG