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davidshelton

davidshelton
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  • No Engine Left [View article]
    Damn! I was waiting to go short again at the pop after a debt deal but the irrational exuberance since Greece 2.0 has evaporated. (It`s the economy, stupid!!). A bounce tomorrow? Still at key levels(right?) on the S&P 500....
    Aug 2, 2011. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Former U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown May Be Responsible for Gold Bubble [View article]
    I wish I had been investing then to "back up the truck" on gold but I am sure it would have been a difficult trade to make emotionally. I wonder who were the buyers of all that gold? Perhaps some chums of Mr. Brown?
    Aug 2, 2011. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • As Long As the Debt Ceiling Situation Rages, Where to Hide? [View article]
    So you´re talking about somewhere between an Argentinian default scenario and a German hyperinflation where you think you might lose your job? How are you going to pay for the taxes, utilities and upkeep? with your deflated savings? I still think buying property that can produce food and where your investments can grow(ie livestock) is rather more attractive. And if you really believe the USD is toast then instead of tying up personal wealth in dollars leverage it to the max. If you can do 5% or less down(FHA??) and lock in rates for the long term 15-30 years. The best thing is you´ll be technically short the dollar! Then invest that money elsewhere commodities, emerging markets etc etc and you´ll be doubly rewarded if the dollar tanks(your portfolio soars while your debt inflates away). Don´t worry about the costly chore of storing necessities then because whatever price you meat goes to you will own the right mix of commodities, currencies, etc that will preserve your purchasing power. I think the only reason to store is if you believe there will be a scarcity of that necessity and my point is that people kill for less than just trying to feed themselves. For an example in the US think New Orleans 2005 if you think you won´t need to defend yourself. If you really want to speculate in meat then surely you´re better off with the futures, ETF`s, AG stocks.... even the cost and space taken up by a tradestation in that little apartment of yours will be nothing compared to all those freezers, packets of meat and their power consumption. If you`re serious why not buy a commercial meat storage facility and store massive quantities of meat like the big players do with oil, copper, etc etc?? (do they already play that game with basic necessities as well??) The main thing is that I think being nimble(is in liquid) is key at times like these. How quickly can you sell that apartment/meat if you change your mind and especially if the market goes against you? Personally I sold most of my properties some time ago and moved away from the west. I now rent in Central America and have a great lifestyle for a lot less on the dollar and I don´t need to work any more. I have the freedom to move wherever and whenever I want and I don´t have to worry about my house and its value anymore while I keep 90% of my net worth invested. I have friends down here who live very happily on 500-1000usd a month.
    Aug 1, 2011. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Long As the Debt Ceiling Situation Rages, Where to Hide? [View article]
    How are you going to pay to keep that apartment maintained and all those freezers running? If you are in an apartment it implies an urban setting where collapse of social order would be far more likely should you actually need all of the above. Not having the means to defend yourself there would make all that meat an easy target. Save your money and go buy a homestead out in the countryside where you can grow your own food and remain somewhat sheltered from the anarchy of a complete collapse. Instead of meat buy livestock!
    Jul 28, 2011. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Applying Game Theory to the Debt Standoff [View article]
    In other words: It is more advantageous longterm for the Republicans to reach a compromise now than be forced to make such a decision when they can be seen as solely responsible for the pain that follows. The democrats never lifted a finger when they held the reins of power - perhaps they were waiting to lose the majority power. It´s still a game of chicken now though....
    Jul 27, 2011. 03:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Long As the Debt Ceiling Situation Rages, Where to Hide? [View article]
    I would agree with you but that would be to hope that it would be somehow different this time in the event of a serious market downturn provoked by all this madness in the US, EU etc etc. Serious panics are bad(at least in the shorter term) for PM`s and especially other commodities. Despite a downgrade, the US treasury market will be still the largest and most liquid hiding place along with the USD. The interesting thing this time around is that the risk of such a hiding place is in question. Will that support Gold/Silver and other alternative havens? I hope so.....
    Jul 27, 2011. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More details on the proposed overhaul of the EFSF: The rate charged to bailed out countries could be lowered to 3.5%, and the maturity lengthened to at least 15 years from 7.5 years. The fund will also be able to recapitalize banks in countries not being bailed out (hint: Italy and Spain). The key to making this all work is the ECB reversing policy to allow "selective default."  [View news story]
    so much about "all in"...
    Jul 21, 2011. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At $9.85/share, Bank of America (BAC +2%) finished yesterday with a market cap of $99.8B - just 49% of its $205.6B book value, Jonathan Weil observes. "As far as the market is concerned, more than half of the company's book value is bogus, due to overstated assets, understated liabilities, or some combination of the two."  [View news story]
    No mark to market and other unknown toxic items on the balance sheet?
    Jul 21, 2011. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Following hours of talks late into the night, Germany and France come to agreement on a new bailout for Greece. Details were not released, but the plan includes a contribution from the EU banking sector. The euro and stock index futures spike higher on the news, but the half-life of the bounce from these rescue plans is shrinking all the time.  [View news story]
    Some interesting reading in preparation for tomorrow! It´s going to be interesting to see what does emerge. A downgrade of Greek debt to D seems rather certain at this point. That last chart was the most interesting. Not having been around in the last inflation crisis I was still wondering about the strength of the Swiss Franc but I see quite the rhyme with past history in recent price action. It would suggest that the CHF has quite a bit further to strengthen....
    Jul 20, 2011. 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Following hours of talks late into the night, Germany and France come to agreement on a new bailout for Greece. Details were not released, but the plan includes a contribution from the EU banking sector. The euro and stock index futures spike higher on the news, but the half-life of the bounce from these rescue plans is shrinking all the time.  [View news story]
    Let`s see how well they do selling the proposal to the rest of the EU in tomorrow´s summit...... it wouldn´t be the first time a plan was nixed.
    Jul 20, 2011. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In spite of weak results from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC), Banyan Partners' Bob Pavlik remains bullish on bank stocks, believing a recovery will happen once conditions begin improving in the mortgage space. Pavlik likes Citigroup (C) and BofA, but thinks JPMorgan Chase (JPM) "is probably the best of the group."  [View news story]
    "once conditions begin improving in the mortgage space" LMAO!!!
    Never mind the technicals or the fundamentals then :)
    Jul 19, 2011. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Timer Model: Buy Inflation Hedges and Risk [View article]
    I suppose one needs to be cautiously optimistic but I wonder if the markets can continue to muddle through the fundamental mess(es) out there and continue to support inflated "risk-on" assets. Aren´t the risks just too high at the moment to fully commit to such a trade? I worry more about the European endgame than the current "gong show" over in the USA. Hedging and tight stops needed indeed......
    Jul 19, 2011. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Meanwhile, the situation deteriorates in Italy, as trading resumes in UniCredit and shares continue to slide, now -7.7%, and Italian short-term debt surges past 6%. EWI -4.6%. (earlier)  [View news story]
    The slow motion race to the bottom continues..... yawn...
    Jul 8, 2011. 11:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In a stunner, News Corp. (NWS +1.7%) says Sunday's edition of News of the World - with a circulation of 2.5M, the most-read English-language newspaper - will be the last one as it shutters the 168-year-old (but scandal-besieged) operation.  [View news story]
    Good riddance News of the World! England is a better place without you :)
    Jul 7, 2011. 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Flying a bit under the radar, the silver ETF (SLV -2.2%) takes out its May sell-off low to close at a level not seen since March. With that key support taken out, could a $20 handle be in silver's near future?  [View news story]
    Didn´t move SLW, SVM or PAAS much at all....... plus an apparently bullish structure in the silver futures makes one wonder how much further it has to fall. There is the QE factor though. It´s going to be an interesting summer!
    Jun 27, 2011. 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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