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davidshelton

davidshelton
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  • Dollar Bills On Sale For 15 Cents: Ram Power Corp. [View article]
    @Author - Nice job on this article!
    As a long term holder of this stock and a resident in Nicaragua, I do appreciate the interest it has generated and would like to add a few comments of my own.
    Firstly the political situation shouldn't be misconstrued as being a carbon copy of Venezuela. Nicaragua has had to be more open to FDI out of necessity(no oil(yet - http://bit.ly/15fdtVo)!) though the government(and Venezuela) are a big part of the local energy matrix(do a google search on Albanisa Nicaragua or http://bit.ly/11Co3c8 or http://bit.ly/11Co4wK). Like the author I also believe that this country is very open to foreign investment and the numbers speak for themselves as stated above(http://bit.ly/11Co4wM). However recent developments with the announcement of the canal project have raised the specter of past problems(see http://bit.ly/11Co3ci and elnuevodiario.com.ni, laprensa.com.ni).
    Above all Nicaragua is not going to meet its renewable energy goals without the incentives in place to bring in foreign investment and expertise. The Sandinistas have been a lot smarter and capable on many levels to their "liberal" predecessors and have had the long term vision to welcome big projects to this country. Roads are being built/repaired all over the country, rural electrification is ongoing, airports etc after years of post war shambles and neglect. One of the first things the Sandinistas resolved was the daily rolling blackouts due the poor state of the electrical grid and power generation capacity and things have gradually improved since then. Nicaragua is well on its way to produce 50% net of its power from Renewables(http://bit.ly/11Co4wT) for this year!
    My real concern is the debt this company has racked up due to the cost over-runs, failed execution and technical problems(eg well remediation currently underway to bring project up to 72mWh). They've kept on taking on more debt and risk. I think they can still pull it off but I fear it won't take much to push the company to have to "mail the keys" to the creditors. Despite all this I am happy to hold for now as I also see the potential upside out weighing the downside many times over.
    Jul 10 11:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Silvermont Delivers On Its Promises [View article]
    Ashraf - I'm sure you can take heart that the vast majority of people really appreciate your hard work and dedication to provide so much analysis on Intel and other companies. Even the haters must appreciate having something to hate! ;)
    Jul 3 06:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The massive protests against Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi aren't likely to end up resulting in any supply disruption in crude oil, says TJM Insitutional's Jim Iuorio as crude breaches the $100 mark. What's driving prices right now is the headline risk. Short oil positions can cause anxiety, especially right now, considering the market will be closed for the Fourth of July holiday. Iuorio doesn't think it will last, noting that we've hit the $100 a barrel level several times, and each occasion it eventually led to heavy selling. [View news story]
    Morsi's done like dinner. A return to a more secular Egypt?
    Jul 3 03:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things That Need To Happen For Gold & Silver To Bottom [View article]
    I would also add that rising interest rates are not a reliable data point at this point due to QE related distortion of the pricing of these assets and the markets reaction to recent news events. It could just as likely be the markets losing faith in "return free risk"(bonds) as expecting inflation to come and happy times ahead or other less desirable outcomes being priced in....
    In conclusion I don't see the above article as offering anything meaningful in the PM bearish debate.
    Jul 1 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things That Need To Happen For Gold & Silver To Bottom [View article]
    Enviro - the article that the author links to, to back up his claim of dropping demand in China actually says imports dropped in April from March because of "supply constraints". The author should have read the article he was linking to! It also mentions premiums.... anyway I'm not sure how helpful data from April is anyway.... I'd be more interested in the data for May and June right now...
    Bottom line : big premiums in Asia mean very strong demand for gold.
    Jul 1 06:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Even after a lot of selling, the amount of gold remaining in ETFs suggests things could get a lot worse. This year's sales of 19M ounces is a 28M ounce swing from last year's gain of 9M ounces, or 870 metric tons - a significant amount compared to total demand of 4,360 tons. Gold ETFs still hold 65M ounces, leaving plenty to be potentially liquidated - consider the effect of gold ETF holdings returning to 2008's level of 30M ounces. The metal (GLD +1.8%) is enjoying a solid bounce today. [View news story]
    The other side of the coin is that if gold ETF demand returns they'll have quite a bit of competition to buy the physical. It's worth watching how physical demand has been during the most recent correction in gold.
    Jul 1 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Fails 3 Times [View article]
    Abegaz, You were right.... but to claim ownership of that call and say it was better, I would hardly agree with. You were just on the more crowded side of the boat.
    Jun 25 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: +1.7% M/M vs. +1.2% expected, +1.1% prior. On a Y/Y basis, prices rose 12.1%, the fastest pace since 2006. The unadjusted monthly gains in the 10 and 20-city composites (+2.6% and +2.5%) were the largest in the history of the survey. Not worried about the bump in mortgage rates, S&P's David Blitzer expects the gains to continue. Among individual cities, San Francisco home prices were up 23.9% Y/Y. Nothing to see here, move along. [View news story]
    As this is April's number it definitely has quite a bit of lag to the current situation. Let's see what happens in 2 months....
    Jun 25 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizable pre-open gains in stock index futures melt away with the crumbling of Greece's ruling coalition as good of an excuse as any for selling. Just like the old days: The euro (FXE) quickly slips about 70 pips and the Stoxx 50 (FEZ) drops 1%, now flat on the session. S&P 500 (SPY) futures +0.25%[View news story]
    Jaw-boning the market to engineer a decent correction at this point seems quite healthy to me. Can't have people getting too complacent can we? The reality is that either rates are allowed to rise to the point that there's a strong bid for treasuries or they keep printing to cover the deficit. Either way I don't see the deficit disappearing by 2014 nor a stronger (world) economy by then. Is the EM liquidity bubble starting to unwind?
    Jun 21 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Air Pocket Is Over - SnP 1643 Going Higher [View instapost]
    We live in interesting times....
    I read elsewhere that a taper is likely based on Bernanke leaving and that the deficit is coming down significantly this year so it no longer requires 85 Billion a month but more like 50 Billion.
    I'm also looking at the trouble in Asia and EM bonds as indicative as to where this all goes in the near term....
    Jun 19 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Air Pocket Is Over - SnP 1643 Going Higher [View instapost]
    Thanks! Will look back over your articles and post more questions....
    Jun 18 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks give up more than half of their earlier gains 75 minutes before the bell, the S&P 500 (SPY +0.4%). It's those interest rates again. Quiet for most of the day, rates began turning higher (TLT -0.4%) just after lunch, and the 10-year yield is now up 4 bps to 2.17%. Favorites of the dividend players, health care (XLV) and utilities (XLU) underperform - just flat on the session. [View news story]
    TLT to -0.63% now. What's going on? http://bit.ly/127dbwm
    Jun 17 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Air Pocket Is Over - SnP 1643 Going Higher [View instapost]
    Hi Franck - I've missed you're interesting articles of late and I'm interested in your reasoning behind your call for 2000. Is it purely technical or QE based or both? Personally I'm very concerned with the action in bonds and stocks in the wider world and the recent weird action in US treasuries. Inflection point marking a major market top and a re-newed bear market cycle? Is a global deleveraging cycle precipitating a run on government paper?
    Jun 17 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nikkei futures go nuts, reversing most of a 5% overnight plunge on word Japan's public pension fund is considering shifting to a more pro-equity stance. They're off just 0.4% at the moment. NKY -1% premarket. [View news story]
    goodbye pensions....
    May 30 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The dollar (UUP +1%) is soaring across the board (not just against the yen, where it's now spiked through ¥100 to ¥100.56). The greenback is threatening parity vs. the aussie (FXA -1.1%) for the first time since last summer, and the euro (FXE -1.1%), swissie (FXF -1.4%), loonie (FXC -0.5%), and pound (FXB -0.6%) are seeing sizable declines as well. Commodities? Red. Gold (GLD -1.1%), Silver (SLV -1.2%), Oil (USO -0.6%), Copper (JJC -0.8%). [View news story]
    The bearded one better gas up the printing presses then....
    May 9 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
310 Comments
248 Likes