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davidshelton

davidshelton
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  • Even after a lot of selling, the amount of gold remaining in ETFs suggests things could get a lot worse. This year's sales of 19M ounces is a 28M ounce swing from last year's gain of 9M ounces, or 870 metric tons - a significant amount compared to total demand of 4,360 tons. Gold ETFs still hold 65M ounces, leaving plenty to be potentially liquidated - consider the effect of gold ETF holdings returning to 2008's level of 30M ounces. The metal (GLD +1.8%) is enjoying a solid bounce today. [View news story]
    The other side of the coin is that if gold ETF demand returns they'll have quite a bit of competition to buy the physical. It's worth watching how physical demand has been during the most recent correction in gold.
    Jul 1, 2013. 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Fails 3 Times [View article]
    Abegaz, You were right.... but to claim ownership of that call and say it was better, I would hardly agree with. You were just on the more crowded side of the boat.
    Jun 25, 2013. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: +1.7% M/M vs. +1.2% expected, +1.1% prior. On a Y/Y basis, prices rose 12.1%, the fastest pace since 2006. The unadjusted monthly gains in the 10 and 20-city composites (+2.6% and +2.5%) were the largest in the history of the survey. Not worried about the bump in mortgage rates, S&P's David Blitzer expects the gains to continue. Among individual cities, San Francisco home prices were up 23.9% Y/Y. Nothing to see here, move along. [View news story]
    As this is April's number it definitely has quite a bit of lag to the current situation. Let's see what happens in 2 months....
    Jun 25, 2013. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizable pre-open gains in stock index futures melt away with the crumbling of Greece's ruling coalition as good of an excuse as any for selling. Just like the old days: The euro (FXE) quickly slips about 70 pips and the Stoxx 50 (FEZ) drops 1%, now flat on the session. S&P 500 (SPY) futures +0.25%[View news story]
    Jaw-boning the market to engineer a decent correction at this point seems quite healthy to me. Can't have people getting too complacent can we? The reality is that either rates are allowed to rise to the point that there's a strong bid for treasuries or they keep printing to cover the deficit. Either way I don't see the deficit disappearing by 2014 nor a stronger (world) economy by then. Is the EM liquidity bubble starting to unwind?
    Jun 21, 2013. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Air Pocket Is Over - SnP 1643 Going Higher [View instapost]
    We live in interesting times....
    I read elsewhere that a taper is likely based on Bernanke leaving and that the deficit is coming down significantly this year so it no longer requires 85 Billion a month but more like 50 Billion.
    I'm also looking at the trouble in Asia and EM bonds as indicative as to where this all goes in the near term....
    Jun 19, 2013. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Air Pocket Is Over - SnP 1643 Going Higher [View instapost]
    Thanks! Will look back over your articles and post more questions....
    Jun 18, 2013. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks give up more than half of their earlier gains 75 minutes before the bell, the S&P 500 (SPY +0.4%). It's those interest rates again. Quiet for most of the day, rates began turning higher (TLT -0.4%) just after lunch, and the 10-year yield is now up 4 bps to 2.17%. Favorites of the dividend players, health care (XLV) and utilities (XLU) underperform - just flat on the session. [View news story]
    TLT to -0.63% now. What's going on? http://bit.ly/127dbwm
    Jun 17, 2013. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Air Pocket Is Over - SnP 1643 Going Higher [View instapost]
    Hi Franck - I've missed you're interesting articles of late and I'm interested in your reasoning behind your call for 2000. Is it purely technical or QE based or both? Personally I'm very concerned with the action in bonds and stocks in the wider world and the recent weird action in US treasuries. Inflection point marking a major market top and a re-newed bear market cycle? Is a global deleveraging cycle precipitating a run on government paper?
    Jun 17, 2013. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nikkei futures go nuts, reversing most of a 5% overnight plunge on word Japan's public pension fund is considering shifting to a more pro-equity stance. They're off just 0.4% at the moment. NKY -1% premarket. [View news story]
    goodbye pensions....
    May 30, 2013. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The dollar (UUP +1%) is soaring across the board (not just against the yen, where it's now spiked through ¥100 to ¥100.56). The greenback is threatening parity vs. the aussie (FXA -1.1%) for the first time since last summer, and the euro (FXE -1.1%), swissie (FXF -1.4%), loonie (FXC -0.5%), and pound (FXB -0.6%) are seeing sizable declines as well. Commodities? Red. Gold (GLD -1.1%), Silver (SLV -1.2%), Oil (USO -0.6%), Copper (JJC -0.8%). [View news story]
    The bearded one better gas up the printing presses then....
    May 9, 2013. 03:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In a show of hands, 29 Cypriot lawmakers vote for the controversial EU bailout, 27 vote against. The deal is thus approved. (CyprusMail, AP[View news story]
    The 29 law makers of doom whistle past the graveyard....
    Apr 30, 2013. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold COT Report - An Update [View article]
    Nice breakdown of the COT. Very interesting how positions have changed over different trader categories. I concurr with the long term picture and am heavily positioned accordingly already.
    Apr 30, 2013. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Double Whammy Is In Play [View article]
    "China produces about 400 tonnes of gold annually, and imports an additional 500 to 600 tonnes of gold every year".
    Imports have risen dramatically in the last two years. Therefore China(with or without the Central Bank) is buying up a significant portion of the global supply. Forget about the future's market and pretty graph patterns for a second, it's what's happening in the real world that matters ultimately. I don't see gold heading lower from here with such demand in the physical market.
    Apr 30, 2013. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australia's Perth Mint - which refines nearly all of that nation's gold bullion - has its factory working weekends to keep up with demand. "We haven't seen levels like this since (2008)," says sales chief Ron Currie. "We're being inundated with people buying products," he continues, noting U.S. orders are particularly heavy. GLD -0.25%[View news story]
    Gold ETF's loss is the physical markets' gain.....
    Apr 30, 2013. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Double Whammy Is In Play [View article]
    Thanks for your thought provoking article. I take exception with your data point from the lofty World Gold Council about China though. I was of the impression that China has not declared a change in total gold reserves since Q2 2009 when they declared a massive increase in their holdings. There's a slight difference to what you appear to be inferring. China is the largest gold producer in the world and yet apparently a not insignificant net importer of the yellow metal. Who's taking delivery of all that gold? China is never secretive about it's official reporting, now is it.....?
    I can hear the shrieks of the "Gold bugs", you're a brave man, Carlos.....
    Apr 29, 2013. 10:40 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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