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  • Good News For Gold Miners: Bullish Harami Pattern In GDX & NUGT Weekly Chart Projects Significant Rally  [View instapost]
    I am not seeing big rallies in nugt/gold until jan. just looking at past runs. expecting flat, not going widely low below from where we are now. nugt is due for a rally to 40 at-least, might happen in jan/feb.
    Dec 16, 2013. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Check Out The Monthly GDX Chart; This Is What Bottoms Look Like [View instapost]
    And for readers of this article (those who cannot day trade), dont forget to BUY NUGT @ 35 (if it double dips there) and every $3 or $5 lower from there. I personally don't see it going lower to $35 but you never know. Keep playing safe than sorry. Trade 4 or 5 times to average down on establishing one full position. At these lows, you are certain to ride up with time.
    Oct 17, 2013. 02:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Check Out The Monthly GDX Chart; This Is What Bottoms Look Like [View instapost]
    Thanks Rob for capturing some of the finest points in this article.
    Oct 17, 2013. 02:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Check Out The Monthly GDX Chart; This Is What Bottoms Look Like [View instapost]
    Totally agreed. The tide has to go only up. GDX is definitely a great investment for multi-year at this low. I also want to point to something i am thinking might happen. Starting next week or so, when the tide shifts, NOV should see a good upside in GOLD and miners how-ever come december, the fears of fed tapers will all be priced in before the end of the month. I am predicting DEC to be a lower side for GOLD. Don't trade on my prediction, this is just my far away stance at this point. Depending on the trends and circumstances, chain of events, we should trade cautiously.
    The very long term view is definitely up. Still holding my NUGT to sell at-least at 50-55 range.
    Oct 17, 2013. 02:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Path To Profitability For NUGT Holders  [View instapost]
    Lefty6x6, i would like to hear more about your strategy with an example of NUGT.

    ex: At 60$ NUGT, you bought say 200 NUGT and 300 DUST (both for equal price, say, 10,000$). You come to a point say NUGT = $49 and you thought that was the lowest point before NUGT could bounce, so you would essentially sell your DUST position when NUGT reached $49 (taking out profit). Now you still hold your original NUGT position at $60, which you are yet to recover.

    If you thought, wow NUGT = 45 is much lower than what i initially predicted, so let me put my DUST profits into buying another NUGT say 250 (price to average on NUGT), so now you have NUGT with an average price of around $51 - $52 where NUGT is trading now at $38.

    Do you just hold the rest of your NUGT shares to come up to break-even and sell?
    Oct 14, 2013. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Path To Profitability For NUGT Holders  [View instapost]
    J Moneymaker, Volume could indicate the reverse trend only if you want to catch the perfect low. But when establishing long position we should not try to catch perfect lows, that's where greed increases the risk of loosing if it was just a false indication of bottom (bottom fishing).

    To be on safer side, waiting a day or two of higher closures and then establishing a position may avoid any sort of risk.
    Oct 14, 2013. 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Path To Profitability For NUGT Holders  [View instapost]
    Or option (c) this option is useful only if you have more funds to buy at lows. Buy nugt at 35, and every 5 $ down from then below. It averages down your total.
    Oct 13, 2013. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Path To Profitability For NUGT Holders  [View instapost]
    Trading NUGT and DUST simultaneously will not work for recovering heavy losses (for ex: some one who established a position in NUGT at 55 - 61 range).

    There are two suggestions i have (those who cannot day trade):

    (a) If you have 10-15% loss (or the loss you think is something that you can take it up), quit the position in NUGT and wait for confirmation on trend reversal (at-least two up-days)

    (b) If you have 30% loss in NUGT now, then your best bet would be to leave it that way for next 2-3 months ride through the loss. The trend has to reverse at some time. But given gold's bearish fall breaking 1300, while people everywhere is predicting 1200 break, it feels odd to stay on this position. But it may be worth selling NUGT at a price atleast 50 than 38. I am confident NUGT will reach 50 at some point when the trend reversal happens.

    I am sticking to (b). Ignore your account for few days.
    Oct 13, 2013. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Path To Profitability For NUGT Holders  [View instapost]
    I am in the same boat as other longs here. I was very hopeful on the predictions of Rob, but these were just predictions. They worked sometimes and did not some other times. When the whole market is talking negative about gold, going against the trend requires patience to bite the bullet and bleed into more losses before the tide turns. And often people going through this wait will win (especially rob who can reposition himself by day trading his positions unlike other longs who hold all of their core positions). One can argue that it is waste to hold these positions bleeding into down turn. Clearly breaking below 1300 mark was a sign of down turn. It is good to be optimistic about the upward move but unless you see a confirmation in reality (wait for a day or two of upward closures, confirming the bottom), the reward of the upward move will definitely be higher. Sailing through the downward turn, into bottom and then trying to recover into where it all began, may sometimes makes you re-think, had i wish i quit my NUGT position at 47$ and bought DUST, i would have been break even now. Lesson is : Don't depend fully on any one's predictions. Predictions are just predictions.

    I have seen that people are very good at predicting the opposite of what is happening in the market. "Trend is your friend, ride the trend". If you have taken a loss, sometimes it make it easier to recover by selling the loss and recovering it with couple of "market friendly trends" than waiting relentlessly on the tide to turn.

    Even when the tide turns, we sometimes quit in the middle of the ride up and expect the opposite of the market to take effect (eventually bleeding into whatever you have gained in that run).

    Don't trade on Rob's predictions. He could be wrong. He spends a good amount of time to give us great opportunties. Take it or leave, when establishing a position, always have a min target before you sell.

    ex: established position in NUGT at 46, keep 38$ as worst target to sell off. Remember, all trades dont turn profits. All moves will not be profitable. Similalry establish a target sell at 56 or if it turns back from 54 to downward trend, sell at 53.

    Long positions should be left as long positions. My examples are for short positions. When betting against the current market trend, always have a lower cutoff to get out with a loss. There will be some day where it will work better for you.
    Oct 13, 2013. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Path To Profitability For NUGT Holders  [View instapost]
    I dont think GDX will hit 17 or 18, (NUGT wiping out) without NUGT making one move up to 50 atleast. If you see the chart, its crying and waiting for upside. IT should happen soon. if GDX breaks below 22, its probably worth selling NUGT and switch to DUST to get the ride for GDX to hit 18 etc. and then switch back to NUGT where GDX hits 18.
    Oct 12, 2013. 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • For Some GDX Perspective, Look How Undervalued Gold Stocks Are Right Now! [View instapost]
    Nugt could go much lower to 20-23$ before it sees any further direction up. Gold is expected to fall to 1120 or 1150, which is almost another 10% drop. That should see GDX at 18$ may be, Its not worth holding NUGT through this fall here. Our sentiment and belief some time need to work with the current market conditions especially when catching a falling knife. Switching to DUST for next 7-8 trading days is a suggested option at this point.
    Oct 11, 2013. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today Could Have Been The Low For GDX & NUGT, For Real This Time! [View instapost]
    I am inclined to think in the same terms but the flip side of the story is a little bitter for short term. If Gold were to break into the lower side say to 1240-1260 range, GDX might even see its way below 20$, must warn everyone to look at the DUST chart in this scenario as well. In either case, the rally in NUGT is warranted into 2014. I'll be the first to party when NUGT reaches 60, question is either in 3 weeks or 3-4months.
    Oct 9, 2013. 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Should Rally For The Next Three Weeks, Providing Support To GDX & NUGT [View instapost]
    I am inclined to think in the same terms. If not this month, I am certain that the seasonal demand in gold would raise in India and heavy accumulation in china may give the push to 1400+ in coming weeks.The target for GDX to hit 28 is very much predictable in next 4-6 weeks.

    I am not sure about the rally from Jan 2014 to April 2014 you were mentioning. While that has been the typical gold trend and typical stock market trend in past few years I am thinking, the tapering might have negative effect on gold and market as a whole (the usual October to december declines in markets might be seen from jan - april of 2014) and may continue into end of december, corrections.
    Oct 6, 2013. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDX Should Continue Lower And DUST Higher, For The Rest Of This Week [View instapost]
    Very clear and to the point. Watching 1345/1355 mark is going to be the key in short term.
    Sep 12, 2013. 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Could Fall For Another Week Which Could Help DUST Explode Higher! [View instapost]
    Sep 11, 2013. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment